Looking LIke DOWN SIDE Based on price action and market structure. Look to get down around 603 before looking long. unless we see a bullish FVG above recent High
S27 trade ideas
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for Today and Tomorrow603-610 is the implied move from options for today and we are just under ATH's and we have a red signal line
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing.
In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks.
Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks.
BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern.
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall.
Get some.
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$SPY January 23, 2025AMEX:SPY January 23, 2025
15 Minutes
The consecutive gap ups cannot sustain.
A pull back is required around 598-602 levels over the next 3 trading days for the moving average to converge.
I will have a contra setup to short 607-607 levels for 602 levels for the moment.
Usually in 15 minutes chart a difference over 15$ between 200 and 9.21 average results in sideways or a pull back.
SPY at a Crossroads: Key Levels and Options Strat for Max ProfitAnalysis and Trade Plan for SPY Based on the 1-Hour Chart
SPY is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting bullish momentum. However, key resistance at 607.82—backed by strong Gamma Exposure (GEX)—poses a critical decision point for traders. Here's a detailed breakdown of potential moves and strategies:
Key Levels to Watch:
1. Resistance:
* 607.82: Current high and GEX resistance.
* 610-612: Psychological level and channel extension.
2. Support:
* 605: Minor support within the trend.
* 599.56: Major support zone highlighted by GEX and channel lower boundary.
Momentum Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover, signaling potential short-term weakness.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought and turning downward, suggesting a possible pullback.
* Volume: Moderate, with no strong conviction near resistance.
Trade Plan for 1-Hour Chart
Bullish Setup (Breakout Above 607.82):
* Entry: Above 607.82, confirmed by strong volume.
* Target: 610 and 612 (upper channel resistance).
* Stop-Loss: Below 605.
Bearish Setup (Breakdown Below 605):
* Entry: Below 605, confirmed by increasing bearish volume.
* Target: 599.56 and potentially 595 (lower support).
* Stop-Loss: Above 606.
Options Strategies Based on GEX (5-7 DTE)
The GEX levels provide critical insights into market dynamics, with 607 acting as a strong resistance zone and 600 as a key support. Utilizing options expiring in 5-7 days (Jan 30, 2025), we can position trades for both bullish and bearish scenarios while minimizing the impact of time decay.
Bullish Option Strategy:
* Buy Call:
* Strike: 607 (ATM) or 605 (slightly ITM).
* Expiry: Jan 30, 2025.
* Entry: On a confirmed breakout above 607.82.
* Target: Resistance at 610-612.
* Stop-Loss: If SPY falls below 605.
Bearish Option Strategy:
* Buy Put:
* Strike: 600 or 599 (slightly OTM).
* Expiry: Jan 30, 2025.
* Entry: On a confirmed breakdown below 605.
* Target: Support at 599.56 and potentially 595.
* Stop-Loss: If SPY climbs back above 606.
Why 5-7 DTE Options?
* Lower Theta Decay: Allows trades to develop over a few days without rapid value loss.
* Controlled Risk: More time to adjust positions or exit with minimal losses.
* Flexibility: Captures both intraday moves and multi-day trends.
Trading Tip: Stay Flexible
While the 1-hour chart shows bullish momentum, the negative skew (-17.9%) and GEX resistance at 607 suggest caution. Monitor price action closely at key levels, and don’t hesitate to switch bias if the market conditions change.
Conclusion:
SPY’s price action and GEX levels highlight critical opportunities for breakout or pullback trades. Use a combination of chart-based entries and 5-7 DTE options to maximize profit potential while minimizing risk.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚨
Spy monthly Its hitting the 2 extenxion on the fininacci retracement at 610 611 also previous high on the daily chart december 6th high is 609 so makes since to retrace here . I bought many put options today deep in the money i think thats a major resistance now , the macd on the monthly shows bulls losing monentum . I am expecting a correction to start end of month or february . I can take the loss and close the options if they push it above 610 . Not a recomendation just my thoughts
Spy ideaBought 5 k worth of puts on this scam too . I think it goes lower by end of week rsi is well overbought . if it goes above 610 i would take the loss but looks good for a short pullback
Spy Road To $615 Its hereIts Here! If You having been following me, we are about to hit our target this week before 1/24/25 , a lot of my followers are going to make a lot of money this week following my Spy & Stock predictions! When we hit our price target this week, I will Update Accordingly to cautiously evaluate our market conditions Bear / Bull / Blow Off Top. But in the meantime you must have exposure to stocks that can with stand a Bull or Bear Market Moving Forward Content Out Now, on what to do!
As Always Safe Trades JoeWtrades
SPY .. S&P 500 interesting Averages Head n ShouldersWhile the green isn't a head n Shoulder it gives you the best visual...
the math is on the left for averages to the green...and the Red is the inverse image of the 2015 to today when figuring in a little room for "uncertainties"
But either way...They both give an interesting take on things.
Which do you think is achievable...especially when insurance is about to collapse with fires, policy cancellations...and derivatives backed swaps being called on if any of the big 7 start a hard down??
anywho..doodles are doodles...
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ.
My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration.
Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality.
The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom.
Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty.
BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward.
Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025.
Get some.
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$SPY January 22, 2025AMEX:SPY January 22, 2025
15 Minutes.
The gap between 200 and price in 15 minutes is more than 12$.
For the extension from recent low near 575 to 592 to 589 604 targets will be achieved.
But there is oscillator divergence.
A pull back this week to 597-598 levels which is 100 averages on 15 minutes will be a good entry point for long.
For the day holding 601 is important.
Technical Analysis and GEX Insights for Jan 22Technical Analysis
* Trend Overview: SPY is showing a recovery from recent lows, pushing towards key resistance levels at $605-$606.
* Support Levels:
* Immediate support near $599-$600.
* Major support at $575, aligning with prior lows.
* Resistance Levels:
* Immediate resistance at $604-$606 (Gamma Wall and Call resistance).
* A break above $606 may lead to $610 as the next target.
* Momentum Indicators:
* MACD: Momentum has flattened but remains in bullish territory.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest caution for buyers as a pullback could occur.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Analysis
* Highest Positive NETGEX: $606, acting as a significant resistance zone.
* Call Walls:
* $606: Strong 2nd Call Wall resistance (65.98% GEX concentration).
* $603: Another layer of resistance but less significant.
* Put Walls:
* $596 and $595: Immediate levels of put support, which could act as downside protection.
* HVL: $600 as the High Volume Level, supporting bullish activity above this level.
Actionable Trade Setups
Bullish Scenario:
* Entry: Above $605, with confirmation of volume breakout.
* Target: $610 and potentially $615.
* Stop-Loss: Below $600 to manage downside risks.
Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $599, especially if $596 is breached with momentum.
* Target: $590 and $585.
* Stop-Loss: Above $604 to minimize losses.
Outlook
SPY's upward movement is promising, but overbought conditions and strong resistance near $606 warrant caution. Bulls need a clean breakout above $606, while bears could capitalize on any weakness below $599.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630AMEX:SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern.
From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region.
I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545.
If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 1-21-25 : Cycle Top FormationThis video highlights my cycle research and why I believe the US markets are very close to a market top right now.
My research suggests the US markets would rally into the Inauguration and reach a peak near Jan 20-22. I believe the markets are very close to a market top right now, and there is limited opportunity to the upside currently.
I believe there is a bigger opportunity for a pullback in the SPY target 578 to 585 (roughly), where I believe the SPY will find support.
Gold & Silver should continue to price in additional risks and rally over the next 3+ weeks. I believe Gold will target $2880, then stall a bit before rallying up above $3000. Silver should target $33.50 to $34.25 at the same time.
Bitcoin continues to be range-bound. At this time, I believe the most logical outcome for BTCUSD is a breakdown attempt until the US settles on deregulation policies.
Let's see how this plays out over the next few days/weeks.
Get some.
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SPY bearish pitchfork setupSPY reached the middle (red) of the pitchfork line which may act as a resistance line. There is also a chance that it will break through and go to the next line up but I find it more likely that it will go down over the coming weeks.
$SPY Today & Tomorrow's Trading RangesWe are above the 50 day moving average the one hour to under moving average and 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe and then we have that up gap from last Friday all on the downside of the trading range. At 603 at the top of the implied move today we do have a resistance level, and it was a support in December before we broke down and then it turned into a resistance. We have an island gap underneath the 30 minute tun removing average above the four hour to removing average and just remember they always do fill. It doesn’t have to be this week but it definitely could be so if you’re bar that might be a good place to look to take profits if we do go down.
I will dive much more deeply into these levels on tonight's video, but for now we at least have them.
Things to Watch this Week:
Earnings Reports: Major companies like Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Airlines (UAL), General Electric (GE), Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), CSX Corporation (CSX), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and American Express (AXP) are set to release their earnings. These reports can significantly influence market sentiment and stock prices.
Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing will provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This data can influence expectations about economic growth and interest rates.
Services PMI: Similarly, the Services PMI will give an overview of the service sector's performance. Given the service sector's substantial contribution to the economy, this data is critical for understanding overall economic trends.
Home Sales: Data on existing home sales can shed light on consumer confidence and spending in the housing market, which is a major component of economic activity. Changes in home sales can signal shifts in economic health.
Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims numbers are a pulse check on the labor market. Rising claims might indicate economic slowdown, while falling claims suggest job growth and economic strength.
Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been noted to be fluctuating, which might continue this week. Monitoring the VIX can help assess market fear or complacency.
Interest Rate Sensitivity: With the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates being a focal point, any indication of future policy direction from Fed officials' speeches or economic data releases could sway markets. Look for comments from Fed members or economic reports that might hint at rate adjustments.
Sector Performance: Particularly, keep an eye on sectors like Technology (with companies like Nvidia potentially leading AI trends), Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary, which have shown movements or are expected to with upcoming earnings.
Global Economic Indicators: International developments, especially from major economies like China or the Eurozone, can impact U.S. markets due to globalization. Look for news on global manufacturing, services, or policy changes that could affect investor sentiment.
Geopolitical Events: Although not directly mentioned in recent market summaries, geopolitical tensions or developments, like trade negotiations or conflicts, can influence markets. Keep an ear out for any significant international news that might ripple through financial markets.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-21 : GAP Breakaway PatternAfter a long weekend, Trump's Inauguration, dozens of Presidential EOs being signed, and the markets searching for direction while nearing my cycle top/peak date (1-20) - I suspect the markets will move into a moderate sideways/topping type of price action over the next 3-4+ days.
It makes sense to me, after watching BTCUSD attempt to rally above the $108k level and fail, that we are moving into a post-Inauguration "reality" phase for the markets.
Yes, the US markets and economy are still clicking right along. We've seen an incredible rally from the 2022 lows, and I believe the markets may stall into a sideways (megaphone) type of pattern in early 2025.
If my research is correct, the process of stabilizing the US economy around Trump's policies and plans will take about 3-4+ months to actually materialize.
Yet, at the same time, the US economy is clicking along quite well, and I expect Q1 & Q2 2025 to be well within expectations - unless something massive breaks.
So, we are moving into my TOPPING pattern area right now. I strongly suggest traders prepare for a moderate pullback in price starting possibly near 1-23 to 1-24. Until then, I believe the markets will be "seeking a top" - that means trying to rally into resistance.
BTCUSD has already reached a peak and is moving into a new EPP pattern.
Gold and Silver should attempt to hedge risks and that means metals should attempt to break away from the current FLAGGING formation.
Things are about to get very interesting.
Get some.
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Trump Week 1 $SPY Options (Bull & Bear)AMEX:SPY
This week we are focusing on the range of $585 to $607.90 with our confirmation level at $599.44. We are using 15-30 minute candles closes for both confirmations and stop-losses. Best of luck!
Ranges: $585.81-$599.44-$607.90
$606 CALL 2/14
Entry: 15 minute close OVER $599.44 (Buy off retest)
Targets: $606, $607.90
$589 PUT 2/14
Entry: 15-minute close UNDER $599.44 (Buy off retest)
Targets: $589, $585.81
SPY Approaches Key Resistance! Will the Bulls Prevail?Technical Analysis for Trading:
1. Current Market Structure:
* SPY is forming a potential descending wedge pattern, which can indicate bullish breakout opportunities if it breaches the upper resistance trendline.
* Immediate support is at $590, with resistance near $600, where selling pressure might intensify.
2. Indicators:
* MACD: Trending positively but showing signs of weakening momentum as the histogram flattens.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought territory (~70-80), indicating a possible short-term pullback or consolidation.
3. Key Levels:
* Resistance: $600 (psychological level), $605 (previous swing high).
* Support: $590 (HVL from gamma exposure), $586 (next PUT wall).
4. Scenarios:
* Bullish: A break above $600 could drive SPY toward $605-$610.
* Bearish: Failure to hold $590 may see SPY retesting $586-$580.
GEX Analysis for Option Trading:
1. Gamma Exposure Highlights:
* Positive Gamma Resistance:
* $600: Highest positive NETGEX, indicating strong call-wall resistance.
* Put Walls:
* $586: Secondary PUT support.
* $584: Key PUT wall, significant downside risk if breached.
2. Option Strategy:
* Bullish Setup: Buy $600 Call expiring 1/26, targeting a breakout above $600 with limited risk.
* Bearish Setup: Buy $585 Put expiring 1/26 if SPY breaks $590, aiming for a move to $586.
3. IV Insights:
* Current IV Rank: 16 (low), making long options relatively affordable.
Summary:
* SPY faces a pivotal moment at $600. A breakout could see higher targets, while failure could test lower supports. Options strategies should align with directional bias based on intraday price action.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk.
SpyUpside target this week is 602.50 - 603.00
Spy
Over 599 and 603 comes .I think there will be push back around 602.. pullback targets at 602 is 599 and below that 595.
Max downside is 590 (20sma) below 590 and this was a dead cat .
10year gapped below 20sma Friday. Looks like it wants a pullback to support and 50sma.. I'll be watching 10yr at 50sma . If it bounces then market will flush and this channel will play out
Looking at Dow Jones and NYA
Both closed right at 50sma and top of Bollingerbands. If they gap up tomorrow price will be outside Bbands and will punish late bulls .. look for a retest of 50sma which should coincide a spy pullback at 602
Qqq
Over 524 and 527 is next up .. over 527 and 531comes
For the record, I'm still not in the "new ATH camp"...
The logic is this FEDs aren't cutting but a cool CPI will give some fuel for a bounce but what happens to the bounce when Jan 29th comes and Powell comes in Hawkish?
So that means the market has 9 days to make whatever upside move it will make but without pressure from yields the market will move on earnings and president Trump's decisions
1/20 Weekly Watchlist + NotesWeekly Watchlist and Market Analysis Using #TheStrat
Indexes - SPY went failed 2D week following the previous week going 3 and we nearly went 3 on this last week, but came up short with little room to go to previous week highs. This week we look to go 3-2-2U to confirm the month being failed 2D that has now retraced more than 50% of the previous months range, meaning we are now closer to taking out previous month highs than we are to reclaiming previous month lows. With full timeframe continuity green, we know that buyers are full in control at the moment, and this upcoming week looks to confirm that further as we look to target previous weekly highs on our way up to ATH levels. No daily actionable signal and a couple daily gaps to the downside, so we will see what happens Tuesday pre market whether we gap down to give last weeks buyers some corrective activity, whether we gap up, clear weekly magnitude (at the high of the weekly 3 from the week prior to this last week) before seeing if we expand further to confirm the month attempting to go 3 or begin reversing back through last weeks range. Finally, we may just open flat and see where intraday signals and continuity take us.
(Slightly pressed for time at the time of writing so I apologize for the lack of detail like my normal posts)
Watchlist:
Bullish:
NVDA - 2-1-2U Daily, 2-2 Weekly. Daily BF looks interesting
PLTR - 3-2-2U Weekly. High rVOL
WMT - Hammer 2-2 Week, MoMo Hammer Daily. Inside green Month which isn't great this late in the month, but not bad enough to ruin this setup for me
DLTR - Hammer 3-2-2U weekly after month went 3. Looking to go back through the months range now. Note: DG full FTFC red so no sector support
IONQ - 3-1 Week at M Exhaustion. MASSIVE range on this one. Nearly 30% underlying move from weekly trigger to magnitude
HIMS - Hammer failed 2D, Weekly 3-1, Failed 2D month attempting to go 3
Bearish:
DOCU - Weekly 3-2-2 Shooter. Daily Big red 3 following double inside day so potential 3-2D daily to trigger shooter week down. Filling in massive gap from the last earnings report
Neutral:
DAL + UAL: Both have inside weeks. DAL at exhaustion risk. UAL bright green. Relative strength in the airline industry
Vol expansion signaling the top is near, but $HYG disagreesThrough my previous "big picture" posts about VIX/VVIX and VIX as well as high yield corporate bonds ( AMEX:HYG or AMEX:JNK respectively) I have been maintaining we're in that end stage of a bull market, but for now to "keep buying the dip."
Things are getting a little shakier lately, but I still feel like new highs can be made based solely on how AMEX:HYG is still behaving.
We have higher lows and lower highs starting on VIX, which is usually a good indicator we're near the cycle top. AMEX:HYG is not far off setting a new high from this cycle, though. Highest it's been since the big sell off started in 2022. AMEX:HYG never recovered its 2021 levels.
So, solely based on past performance of how AMEX:HYG often sets lower highs preceding a longer term bear market in equities, I'm going to stick my neck out and say despite the economic data supporting slowing and VIX starting to set alarm bells in its pattern, we're not quite yet to the top.
Equities kind of have the appearance of having done a double top and might continue down according to how some interpret candlestick patterns, but the unusual strength of AMEX:HYG gives me pause and say "maybe buy the dip isn't dead just yet."
Make no mistake, though, we are certainly much closer to a market cycle top than we are the bottom. And tech has been getting battered pretty solidly. I just think the price action of the main indices themselves may yet set new highs before we do finally enter a longer term bear market. It absolutely is time to be on your toes. Things are shifting underneath us.
But my bold prediction is that buy the dip for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX isn't dead just yet. Bulls may have another rally or two left in them to hit another all time high before bears totally take over. I do think some larger players have already begun shifting out of equities and into treasuries, once that settles down a little, we'll see stocks make maybe one or two more big pushes, take a look at what AMEX:HYG is doing during that time and go from there.
With that said, I have no prediction for how far and deep the current dip will go. September has a history of being one of the uglier months of the year. I had thought that yesterday might be the low of the current dip with AMEX:HYG showing two decent days of bullish divergence, but then we got smacked lower still today after a rebound from yesterday's lows.
The market has a way of humbling you for sure! But if you're just long term long $SPY/ SP:SPX , I say stay there for now. I think we might have some more highs to set yet--but not many more before a big drawdown does happen.
SPY Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 597.55 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 588.41
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
