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Tracking Crisis with This Ratio – US Markets vs GoldThese are the 3 major crisis over the last 25 years. The dot com, 08 and the recent 9% inflation crisis. Before each crisis get into its full swing, I have observed there was a surge in gold. In this tutorial, I will share: 1) Why a surge in gold before each crisis? 2) What are the key variables that we should be looking out for this year? and 3) I hope I don’t sound too ambitious in discussing how to time this move? E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
6
**Gold Futures: Current Trends and Analysis****Gold Futures: Current Trends and Analysis** Gold futures have been experiencing significant volatility recently, driven by a combination of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment. The price of gold has been fluctuating within a range, with key support and resistance levels being closely watched by traders. **Market Drivers** 1. **Economic Data**: Recent economic reports have shown mixed signals, with some indicators pointing to a strong economy while others suggest potential slowdowns. This has led to uncertainty among investors, pushing them towards safe-haven assets like gold. 2. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes have added to market uncertainty. Investors often turn to gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. 3. **Interest Rates**: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates has been a major factor influencing gold prices. Expectations of rate hikes or cuts can significantly impact investor sentiment towards gold. 4. **Currency Movements**: The strength of the US dollar plays a crucial role in determining gold prices. A weaker dollar typically makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. **Technical Analysis** Technical indicators suggest that gold futures are currently in a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are showing mixed signals, indicating that the market is indecisive. Key levels to watch include the weekly high, previous day high, and previous week high, which have acted as resistance, and the previous day low and previous week low, which have provided support. **Current Statistics** - **Gold Price**: As of the latest data, gold futures are trading at approximately $2,911 per ounce. - **Volume**: Trading volume has increased by 12% over the past week, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market. - **Open Interest**: Open interest in gold futures has risen by 8% in the last month, suggesting a growing number of contracts outstanding. - **Volatility**: The volatility index for gold futures has increased by 4% over the past month, reflecting the current market uncertainty. **Historical Context** To put the current trends into perspective, gold prices reached an all-time high of approximately $2,070 per ounce in August 2020, driven by the economic uncertainties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, gold prices were as low as $1,050 per ounce in December 2015. Comparing current prices to these historical highs and lows can help investors gauge the market's direction. **Market Sentiment** The general sentiment among traders and investors is mixed. While some are optimistic about gold as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing uncertainties, others are cautious due to potential economic improvements and higher interest rates. Monitoring sentiment indicators and trader positioning can provide additional insights. **External Factors** Several external factors may influence gold prices in the near future: - Upcoming economic reports, such as employment data and GDP growth rates, could impact market sentiment and gold prices. - Central bank meetings, particularly the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, will be closely watched by traders. - Geopolitical events, such as trade negotiations and conflicts, could add to market volatility and affect gold prices. **Investment Strategies** Based on the current trends and analysis, here are some potential investment strategies: - **Long-Term Holding**: Investors who believe in gold's long-term potential as a hedge against economic uncertainties may consider holding gold futures for an extended period. - **Short-Term Trading**: Traders looking to capitalize on short-term price movements can take advantage of the current volatility by employing technical analysis and setting clear entry and exit points. - **Diversification**: Diversifying with other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, can help spread risk and potentially enhance returns. **Conclusion** In summary, gold futures are currently in a state of flux, with various factors influencing price movements. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies to make informed decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by OakleyJM
5
Tracking Crisis with Stocks/Gold RatioGold Surges with Three Major Crises Over the past 25 years, we have witnessed three significant financial crises: the Dot-Com Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the recent 9% inflation crisis. In each of these events, a distinct pattern emerged—gold surged before the crisis reached its full intensity. Historically, gold's price has experienced notable gains before economic downturns: • Dot-Com Bubble: +34% surge • 2008 Financial Crisis: +89% surge • Inflation Crisis (2022): +24% surge Currently, gold has surged 83% from its trough in November 2022. Given this historical correlation, could we be on the verge of another financial crisis? Why Are Central Banks Stockpiling Gold? This current gold rally bears similarities to past surges but also has a crucial distinction. While demand for gold remains strong, this time around, central banks are leading the charge in purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate since 2022. Gold serves a dual function: 1. Inflation Hedge – A safeguard against inflation. 2. Currency Hedge – Protection against currency devaluation. Central banks' aggressive gold acquisitions suggest expectations of prolonged inflation and currency instability. As fiat currencies weaken, inflationary pressures mount, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven asset. Fundamental Indicators Paint a Cautionary Picture A deeper dive into key economic indicators suggests a challenging outlook. Here are some red flags: • Treasury Bonds in a Downtrend – Indicating a loss of confidence in long-term debt securities. • Interest Rates Remain High – Despite inflation cooling from 9% to 3%, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than pre-2022 levels. Elevated interest rates place pressure on businesses and, eventually, stock prices. • Inflation Remains Stubborn – The lowest recorded inflation since the peak was 2.4%, but it has now ticked back up to 3%. With ongoing tariff escalations, inflation could reignite. These fundamental factors indicate that financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks, reinforcing the case for cautious positioning. The Technical Outlook: A Bullish Trend Still Holds Despite fundamental concerns, technical analysis suggests that the current AI-driven market rally, which began after the introduction of ChatGPT, remains intact. A strong uptrend line connecting all major troughs continues to act as a support level. Timing the Bear with the Crisis The bond market is already signaling distress. If equity markets break below this well-established uptrend line, my strategy will shift dramatically. Instead of looking for buying opportunities on dips, I will pivot to selling on strengths, anticipating a market downturn. My Trading Strategy: Still Buying on Dips I have provided a daily chart with updated trendlines, marking key support and resistance levels. My trading approach will be guided by these levels to manage risk effectively. Preferred Instruments: Outright futures and call options. Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish. While economic conditions warrant vigilance, technical indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains intact—until proven otherwise. Happy trading! Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Equity Markets Lagging the Precious Metals Equity indices slipped today as they are looking to retest all time high levels for the ES and the NQ. Traders saw economic data released today including a higher than expected initial jobless claims number along with a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number. As the equity markets slipped, the precious metals complex saw gains today with Gold, Silver, and Copper all in positive territory. As the week wraps up, traders can look ahead to the existing home sales number along with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tomorrow to add some volatility to the market. The CME Fed Watch Tool is currently indicating that rates will again be unchanged for the March meeting, and then a 43.6% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the June meeting. These expectations can change as the year progresses based on different employment and inflation data and will help give a better indication of the strength of the equity and precious metal markets. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GCJ2025
by CME_Group
Short Selling in Gold MCX and Comparison with Global MarketsShort selling in gold on the **MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange)** involves betting on a decline in gold prices. Traders borrow gold contracts, sell them at the current market price, and aim to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. However, this strategy carries risks, especially in a volatile market like gold. ### Key Factors to Consider for Short Selling in Gold MCX: 1. **Price Trends**: - Analyze technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, support/resistance levels) to identify bearish trends. - Look for signs of weakness, such as breaking key support levels or forming lower highs and lower lows. 2. **Global Gold Prices**: - MCX gold prices are influenced by international gold prices, typically tracked via benchmarks like **COMEX gold** (New York) or **London Bullion Market (LBMA)**. - A strong correlation exists between MCX and global gold prices, but currency fluctuations (USD/INR) can cause deviations. 3. **Dollar Strength**: - Gold prices often move inversely to the US dollar. A strengthening dollar can put pressure on global gold prices, potentially supporting a short-selling strategy. 4. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: - Safe-haven demand for gold during geopolitical tensions or economic uncertainty can drive prices higher, making short selling risky. - Central bank policies, interest rates, and inflation data also impact gold prices. 5. **MCX-Specific Factors**: - Domestic demand for gold in India, especially during festivals or wedding seasons, can influence MCX gold prices. - Import duties and local market dynamics may cause MCX gold to deviate from global trends. ### Comparison with Global Gold Markets: - **MCX vs. COMEX**: MCX gold prices are derived from COMEX gold prices but are adjusted for the USD/INR exchange rate. If COMEX gold falls, MCX gold is likely to follow, but a weakening rupee can limit the downside in MCX. - **Volatility**: MCX gold can sometimes exhibit higher volatility compared to global markets due to local demand-supply dynamics and currency fluctuations. - **Trading Hours**: MCX trading hours differ from COMEX, leading to gaps in prices when one market opens after the other closes. This can create arbitrage opportunities but also increases risk. ### Risks of Short Selling in Gold: - **Unpredictable Surges**: Gold is a safe-haven asset, and sudden geopolitical or economic crises can trigger sharp price rallies. - **Carry Costs**: Holding short positions in futures contracts may involve rollover costs. - **Leverage Risk**: MCX trading involves leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. ### Conclusion: Short selling in gold MCX can be profitable during bearish trends, but it requires careful analysis of both domestic and global factors. Traders should monitor global gold prices. Want to learn more connect us on 9325432783
MCX:GOLD1!
by trad_corn
micro gold(daily-4h-1h)future 21/02daily up 4h bulish consolidation 1h down rely on daily up trend based on news and people psychology 1h demand is strong, move out, break out, one candle, mix session Tokyo and Sydney, good volume on profile, on moving 50 and trend 4h. when price come to it only 4h trend Chang to down trend and its only bad sign of it, but till this point daily is up then we can rely on up trend of daily and for strength of 1h demand buy it. for changing 4 h trend in this area enter with confirmation based on your style(put buy stop when price go 50 percent to zone or based price action and change of structure in 15 min).
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2025Long
by nooshin_yamani
Can Rainbow MG3 Secure in the CME Trading Competition's Top 10? Can Rainbow MG3 Secure a Spot in the CME Trading Competition's Top 10? I've joined the CME trading competition 13 days late, but that hasn't stopped me from making an impact. After just two days of trading Bitcoin and Gold, my account is already up 6%, placing me in the top 14% out of nearly 50,000 traders. The top 10 traders in the competition—many of whom are pro traders—have already racked up over $1 million in profits, making them part of the elite top 5%. The gap between them and the rest of the field is significant. With 16 days left, my goal is to break into the top 10. I'm relying on the Rainbow MG3 indicator as my primary tool. The question is: Can Rainbow MG3 help me achieve this? 🚀 Follow my journey as I put this strategy to the test!
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by rainbow_sniper
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management. Identifying the Trade Setup Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade. The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone. Trade Plan and Risk Management The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively: The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken. The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level. Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (GC) details: Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 100 troy ounces Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract. Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details: Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC) Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract. Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals. If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade. Conclusion Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold Options Activity Point to Continuing RallyNot a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue? Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now. BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We have covered it previously in Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments . In that we highlighted the three main forces at play: (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India, and (c) Trump administration’s fiscal policies favouring gold. In addition to the above, US Dollar weaponization, De-dollarisation fears, and Tariff tensions, serve as additional tailwinds. TradingView Wizard, Konhow , has comprehensively covered the historical impact of tariffs on Gold in his recent paper and video . SENTIMENTS HAVE SURRENDERED IN FAVOR OF RISING GOLD This research note will not dive into the weeds of technical analysis either. TradingView’s Technical Analysis dashboard summarises it all elegantly. TradingView Momentum is in favour. Oscillators are neutral indicating little risk of price reversal. Overall, sentiment remains bullish gold. Gold prices as represented by CME Micro Gold Futures front month contract formed a golden cross on 10th January 2025. Since then, prices are up 8.5% as of 13th February 2025. Current prices are well above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day DMAs. RSI is in overbought zone. Expect some pull back in gold prices from time to time on profit taking. But the upward trend is undeniable. The MACD shows that Gold momentum continues to be on the rise but with waning bullishness. Readers can access the entire library of technical ideas focussing on Gold on TradingView’s Gold Ideas Page ideas page . OPTIONS MARKETS ARE SIGNALLING A SOLID BULL RUN AHEAD This paper aims to unpack recent activity in CME gold options market and its impact on prices. No contrary signals there either. Options market also signal bullish gold. QuikStrike is a free-to-use tool for registered participants on the CME Group website. The tool provides a vast range of analytics to guide portfolio managers & traders to better comprehend the underlying market. Each report comes with a helpful user-guide to describe the data covered within the report. Some key takeaways below: Open Interest Profile page shows that as of close of markets on 11th February 2025, total call open interest (“OI” for short) stood at 634,815 lots across all expiries and strikes. Aggregate put IO totalled up to 357,305 lots resulting in a put-call ratio (p/c ratio) of 0.56. Calls are options contract that represent a bullish view. While puts are contracts representing bearish outlook. At 0.56 p/c ratio, there are twice as many bullish positions for each bearish one. Source: CME QuikStrike Most Active Strikes allow portfolio managers and traders to analyse top strikes with shifts in open interest. Table below shows top 10 strikes registering the largest change in open interest between 4th February and 11th February. Starting first with the Calls (left section of the table below), participants have been building up open interest in strikes 4000, 3200, 3250, 4500, 4032, and 3,975. Call options have also booked reduction in open interest at strikes 3000, 3075, 3100 and 3025. On a net-basis, open interest is up 10,312 lots across these top ten strikes over various expiries this year. Source: CME QuikStrike Puts (right section of the table above) shows rising build up in open interest for strikes ranging from 2740 to 2880. Collectively, this indicates that market participants are rooting for gold prices to rise through USD 3,000/oz and to even rally past USD 4,500/oz. Will that happen? Only time will tell. Given that risk managers are establishing puts at such high levels point to strong support for gold prices at current levels. In a nutshell, current prices are not only formidably comfortable but the potential to rise is also highly probable. Shifting the attention to volatility, the CME Group also offers CVol which is another free-to-use tool. Portfolio managers and traders can visualise implied volatility behaviour on this tool. Source: CME CVol The GCVL which is the Gold CVol index shows implied volatility at 17.65 and with a positive skew of 1.08. Implied volatility easing even at an elevated prices indicates that market participants are comfortable at current price levels and do not foresee immediate large price moves. Skew on the CVol tool is defined as Up Var minus Down Var. Up Var is the likelihood of the price rising while Down Var measures the likelihood of prices falling. A positive skew shows that the market is pricing a higher likelihood of rising prices relative to a down move. FUND FLOWS INTO GOLD ETF IS UP 47% YOY Among its rich set of features, TradingView also shows daily ETF fund flows . GLD is the prominent ETF commanding assets under management (AUM) of USD 80.65 billion. This time last year, GLD ETF showed AUM of USD 54.77 billion. Fund inflows have spiked 47.25% over the past 12 months. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With fundamentals, sentiment, options market, and fund flows all pointing to a price that is set to rise, this paper posits a long position using CME Micro Gold Futures expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025) based on the following entry, exit levels and the reward-to-risk ratio: • Entry: USD 2,900/oz • Target: USD 3,100/oz • Stop: USD 2,800/oz • P&L at Target (USD per lot): +2,000 ((3,100 – 2,900) x 10) • P&L at Stop (USD per lot): -1,000 ((2,800 – 2,900) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2x Please note that Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers. Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures. In collaboration with the CME Group, TradingView has launched The Leap trading competition. New and upcoming traders can hone and refine their trading skills, test their trading strategies, and feel the thrill of futures trading with a vibrant global community through this paper trading competition sponsored by CME Group using virtual money and real time prices. The competition lasts another 15-days. Please join the 48,000+ others who are actively honing their trading skills using virtual money. Click here to learn more. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance