CU1! trade ideas
Elliott Wave view: Copper (HG) Still Has Further UpsideShort term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) suggests that the dips to 3.11 on November 11 ended wave ((ii)). The metal has resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 3.52. Internal of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 3.26 and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.169. The metal resumed higher in wave iii towards 3.3, and pullback in wave iv ended at 3.235. Final leg higher in wave v ended at 3.33. This completed wave (i) in higher degree.
The metal then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 3.28. Up from there, wave (iii) ended at 3.50 with internal also as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. From there, dips to wave (iv) ended at 3.43, and wave (v) completed at 3.52. This 5 waves move higher ended cycle from November 11 low in wave ((iii)). The metal then pullback in 3 swing (w)-(x)-(y) which found buyers at the blue box equal leg area. Wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 3.439 and copper has turned higher from the blue box. It now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 3.50 to avoid a double correction. As far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 3.11 stays intact, dips should continue to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for more upside.
Copper turning point?Technical:
An hour precision chart indicates possible head and shoulder formation, negative RSI. Day precision chart indicates RSI almost at its 80s and if a divergence is to be build somewhere there is a high chance it is here.
Fundamental:
Low stockpile of copper in China has inspired a rally but at this level of stockpile ALWAYS in the past we have seen a move that rebuilds it fast within a month.
Take profit 2.5
It would be great to see gold retest 1850 from bottom and then all commodities could initiate a simultaneous correction. In the long term commodities (obviously not all of them) can only rise.
Copper futures - HG - Elliottwave analysis - Buy set up Copper futures - HG - It is in 5th wave extension on 4 chart from major bottom. The current move is 3rd wave extension within 5th wave extension. Buy THREE WAVE SIDEWAY CORRECTION everytime after price making higher high for the the next up cycle.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
Commodities Taking OffChoose your rocket ship. Silver, gold, copper, platinum and uranium are leaving station now!
Weekly copper market review 11/30/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.4010 per pound, the highest value since late 2013.
Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, with net positions of the net commitments of traders at +68K being on historical highs.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. They stand at 317706 MT, a decrease of more than 3%, or nearly 10,000 MT. Inventories in Shanghai have fallen by 74.5% since the end of March, and given the forecast deficit of the red metal, the trend should continue in the coming months.
Last week, the US and Euro zone manufacturing PMIs came out at 56.7 and 53.6 respectively. On Monday, China's Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.1. This confirms the good resilience of the manufacturing sector in general, as a reminder a figure above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector. The Euro zone and the US followed an 8th month of expansion and China a 9th.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, becoming Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, manufacturing PMIs in the Euro-Zone came out down to 53.6 in November from 54.8 in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Monday, China's manufacturing PMIs stood at 52.1 in November compared with 51.4 in October.
- On Tuesday, Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI and Inflation, U.S. Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- On Wednesday, Euro zone unemployment and U.S. job creation.
- Thursday, retail sales in the Euro zone, U.S. unemployment registrations.
- Friday, the report on U.S. employment and industrial orders
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 150775 MT from 157350 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange decreased to 92912 MT from 96766 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74019 MT from 74290 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 317706 MT compared to 328406 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
COPPER - (Almost) time to SELLcopper- approaching a major resistance level (the ALL TIME RESISTANCE LEVEL)
We will start opening some short positions here today but carefully because it still has room to rise another 2,5% before dropping massively
BIG MOVE IN COPPER AND CORRELATED EQUITIESCopper broke a key level and has plenty of room for more upside growth.
prepare to short between 3.27 and 3.32narrowing trading ranges on uptrend, strong resistance level, long growth - all signs to gradually open short position
Using Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tools to Help TradingQuick Video Tutorial on how to use the TradingView Fibonacci Extension tool to measure Risk to Reward and even manage trades.
Also how to combine the Fibonacci Retracement tool with Stochastics to measure pullbacks during a trend.
Weekly copper market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.2910 per pound.
Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases.
The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. Copper stocks are down sharply to 328406 MT, a drop of 8.27%, or nearly 30000 MT . This confirms the good health of the Chinese manufacturing sector and China's willingness to accumulate strategic stocks of the red metal. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest importer of copper, and data suggests an acceleration of the economic recovery in Q4.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, China's industrial production was +6.9% in October. In the United States, retail sales were down to +0.2% in October from +1.2% in September, and US industrial production was down to +1.1% in October.
- On Monday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone were at 53.6 in November compared with 54.8 in October, and composite Markit PMI at 45.1 in November compared with 50 in October, a sign of the slowdown in the recovery in the Euro zone. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Wednesday, orders for durable goods, inflation, unemployment registrations, and U.S. GDP.
- Thursday, Thanksgiving in the US. ECB report.
- Friday, Thanksgiving and close of trading at 13:00.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 157350 MT from 165200 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 96766 MT from 117949 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74290 MT from 74830 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 328406 MT compared to 357979 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 67.162 K instead of 65.069 K.
Copper smashing new highs and it isn't even 2021 On the back of growing demand out of China (50% of global demand), Asia recovery and general optimism from Vaccine news, Copper has reached record levels that haven't been seen since June 2018. Last night's U.S. manufacturing in November saw the quickest pickup since September 2014, driving expectations of higher base metals demand in the US for next year. Low prices have kept new copper mines from developing, and a shortage of scrap has also helped drive up pricing. At $3.00 per pound, copper becomes an attractive investment for new miners, so no doubt new copper mining projects will be speed up. Nevertheless, new mines take a while and increasing demand will continue to put prices under pressure for the immediate future.
COPPER PROBABLY IN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE C or WAVE 5Copper is about to finish an ending diagonal wave C or 5 of a higher degree and will soon enter a bearish wave correction ( Declining volume supports ending diagonal structure and will give confidence once price breaks below the converging trend line with a higher volume daily close )
We will take short positions only when the price retrace backs and fail to make a higher high and breaks below the swing low that will be our entry point, Stop loss will be placed on the last swing high once trade is entered
Targets for correction wave are Fibs 0.32 , 0.5 and 0.618 ( Ending diagonals tend to retrace back to there starting point )
Aggressive traders can take positions once price is touching or breaching the upper trend line of the triangle, also look for a reversal candlestick pattern on the daily close
Divergence on Volume, RSI and MACD etc.
Weekly candlestick is building a shooting star pattern which will further bring confidence to this trade if the week does close with a shooting star
The risk/reward ratio on this trade is exceptional but this will be a long term trade
💡 Volume is the key factor at breakout below
Let see how this plays, Good Luck !
Disclaimer: This is for informational purpose only, anyone taking trades using this idea will be liable of their own loss
copper short1h time-frame:
end of 5th wave.
MACD and RSI sell signal.
fibonacci price levels created a strong price cluster.
4h time-frame:
end of wave C.
bearish engulfing candle with trigger.
CopperLook at this little chart. screams short in my opinion. so lets try building a small (short) position over the next few weeks and see if it holds. remember, as soon as your position turns green, take risk off and play with the banks money. it doesn't take huge contract size to make money, all you have to be is "right" in your directional call. this type of trend is showing in many different charts right now. the market is waiting for U. S. stimulus which will come with Biden. in the meantime look for pullbacks. and don't use stops, if you can afford it.
