Silver's Rally Reaches Critical ResistanceSilver continues to respect the extended trendline (May 2024–Jan 2025), marking the upper boundary of an expanding consolidation.
A rebound from $28.80 lifted XAGUSD toward the 32.60 resistance, aligning with the lower border of the Oct 2023–Oct 2024 uptrend, supported by haven demand from Trump Tariffs & Trade Wars.
Retracement risks are rising at the lower channel border. A decisive close above 32.60 is needed to extend gains toward 35, 37 & 40. Failure to break higher may trigger a pullback to 30, with further support levels at 29.50, 28 & 26.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
SILVER trade ideas
4-hr Silver: At Least Another $1 to the UpsideOver the past month, Silver has experienced an impressive 13% surge, marking a strong bullish trend. Despite notable volatility and multiple pullbacks, the overall momentum remains firmly to the upside. This strength is further validated by the Golden Cross, a historically reliable buy signal that reinforces the long-term uptrend.
However, since Friday, Silver has entered a corrective phase. Currently, the 4-hour chart displays a significant bearish candle, suggesting strong selling pressure. Given this setup, it is possible that the decline could extend into today and tomorrow, as investors might be reallocating capital from Silver to Stocks in response to shifting market conditions.
Despite the ongoing correction, we remain aligned with the broader uptrend and are looking for an optimal entry point to maximize risk-to-reward. Instead of jumping in prematurely, we prefer to enter a long trade near the $31.20 level. This area is particularly significant as it aligns with the critical 38% Fibonacci retracement, a level that could act as strong technical support before the next bullish leg resumes.
XAGUSD - How far will silver go?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we can see a demand range. We can buy in that range with an appropriate reward to risk.
Gold demand in China is showing signs of a strong rebound, even as the physical flow of gold from the UK to the United States continues. Meanwhile, analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals have indicated that there is evidence suggesting that the growing demand for silver in the solar industry may have peaked.
Last week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank acted in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, while the European Central Bank implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Regarding silver, Heraeus analysts questioned whether China could sustain its rapid growth in the solar energy sector. They reported, “The total installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) panels in China reached 886.66 gigawatts in 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year.
This 277-gigawatt expansion exceeded industry forecasts and surpassed China’s own 2024 capacity projections by 17 gigawatts. However, while this growth is remarkable, it falls short of the record 54% increase seen in 2023, following a 28% rise in 2021. This trend suggests that China may be approaching its peak photovoltaic capacity growth.”
The analysts also noted that, over the past two years, rapid solar energy growth has been driven by unprecedentedly low photovoltaic module prices, largely due to intense competition among manufacturers. They explained, “However, in 2025, polysilicon producers (GCL and Tongwei) have agreed to limit their production, while solar module manufacturers (Jinko, JA Solar, and Canadian Solar) have reached a minimum pricing consensus to restore profitability. This could drive up the price of solar modules, leading to higher capital costs for projects.”
They added, “Projections indicate that 232 million ounces of silver were used in 495 gigawatts of photovoltaic applications in 2024. If installation rates remain steady year-over-year, solar demand for silver could reach a record 270 million ounces in 2025, an increase of 39 million ounces.”
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett announced that the Trump administration is focusing on reducing the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rather than the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate cuts. Over the weekend, Trump remarked that the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision not to cut interest rates was a “good” move, indicating his emphasis on 10-year yields.
This policy could contribute to financial stability and help control inflation. However, some analysts have warned that Trump’s measures, along with spending cuts by his ally Elon Musk, may not have a significant impact, as a large portion of U.S. government expenditures remains allocated to healthcare, social security, and defense.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, economists at Morgan Stanley no longer anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in March. They now predict only one rate cut in 2025, expected in June. As Morgan Stanley stated, “The implementation of tariffs earlier than expected is likely to halt the downward inflation trend at a higher level, making any short-term rate cuts impossible.”
Silver Rallies on Trade War Concerns and Strong Industrial DemanSilver rose above $32 per ounce on Wednesday, a three-month high, as trade and economic uncertainties fueled safe-haven demand. A weaker US dollar also supported prices. The US delayed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada but enforced a 10% levy on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to impose its own tariffs and consider sanctions on US firms. Meanwhile, the Silver Institute projected a fifth consecutive year of market deficits in 2025, driven by strong industrial demand and retail investment, offsetting weaker jewelry and silverware consumption.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 32.50 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 33.00 and 33.50. On the downside, 31.80 will be the first support level. 30.90 and 30.20 are the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.
Manufacturing Data Fuels Silver's RiseSilver rose above $31.5 per ounce, near its highest since early December, as easing trade war fears and strong manufacturing data stimulated demand. While Trump imposed 10% tariffs on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico, a delay in Mexico’s tariffs eased protectionist concerns. The ISM reported improving U.S. factory activity, reinforcing silver’s industrial demand outlook.
The Silver Institute projected a fifth market deficit in 2025, with strong industrial and retail investment demand outweighing weaker jewelry and silverware demand.
Key resistance levels are 32.50, 33.00, and 33.50. Support stands at 31.80, followed by 30.90 and 30.20.
SILVER (XAGUSD): Bullish Rally is Going to ContinueSilver has been in a strong uptrend for over a month, breaking through a significant horizontal resistance level.
The current retest of this level is expected to hold within a rising parallel channel pattern, with further bullish movement anticipated towards the 32.90 resistance level.
Bear are coming in and may push the price lowerAs we can see the overall trend is an uptrend, the break above neckline and new higher high confirmed this. However if you notice the market failed to make new higher highs meaning we have sellers participating and they might push the trend down
It would be advisable to stay away from the market until we can clearly see who is in control of the market between Bulls and Bears
Now let's talk about the best entry point here, a break above Resistance would mean buyers regained total control of the market and we should look for buys here and If the market breaks below the Solid Low then we have our confirmation that sellers are in control and we should look for sells
so all in all it's best to wait and not chase the market as that can end in negative results. Good luck Traders
Silver, bullish or bearish? Greetings, traders! Welcome to this Silver (XAGUSD) market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
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Bullish momentum to extend?The Silver (XAG/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 31.73
1st Support: 31.19
1st Resistance: 32.33
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Silver is in the bullish trend after testing supportHello Traders
In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
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XAGUSD BULISH AFTER A SLIGHT FALLXAGUSD is in a total bullish movement, but it is currently experiencing a slight pullback. After this, we can aim for the target price marked on the chart.
As always, pay close attention to the danger zone and stop loss zone. If the close crosses these levels, the analysis will either be in danger or invalidated!
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