XAGUSD - How far will silver go?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If we see a correction, we can re-enter the silver purchase and accompany it to the ceiling of the ascending channel. Then we can sell within the specified supply zone with an appropriate reward for risk.
In recent weeks, analysts have warned investors that gold prices breaking strongly above $2,800 suggest an overbought market.Therefore, it is not surprising to see some profit-taking finally occurring, especially since gold prices have surged by more than 11% since the beginning of the year.
In contrast, silver has been notably underwhelming. Despite having strong bullish fundamentals, it has not experienced price increases on par with gold. Moreover, silver is more unpredictable, as its volatility is twice that of gold.
In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken bold steps in trade and foreign relations. On Tuesday night, he announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. This decision comes at a time when global markets are grappling with heightened uncertainties, while hopes remain for an end to the Ukraine conflict.
A 25% tariff on imported cars could significantly impact the global automotive industry, which has already been facing challenges. Trump has long criticized what he perceives as “unfair treatment” of American car exports in foreign markets. For instance, the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on imported cars—four times higher than the 2.5% tariff the U.S. levies on passenger vehicles.
Similar tariffs are planned for pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips, starting at 25% and set to increase significantly next year. However, Trump did not specify an exact timeline for implementation, stating that he wants to give pharmaceutical companies and chip manufacturers time to establish production facilities in the U.S. to avoid these tariffs.
Beyond their immediate impact on specific industries, these tariffs could have long-term repercussions, such as higher business costs and rising prices for consumers. Trump also indicated that he expects major corporations to invest more in the U.S. soon, although he did not provide further details.
Amid these trade developments, Trump has initiated negotiations with Russia, signaling a potential shift in diplomatic relations between the two nations. On Tuesday, senior officials from both countries took steps toward rebuilding ties, agreeing to collaborate on ending the Ukraine conflict, increasing financial investments, and restoring diplomatic relations. This meeting marks a significant shift following three years of U.S. efforts to isolate Moscow.
Meanwhile, a massive influx of gold and silver has entered the U.S., as major banks and market players hedge against potential tariff threats. This surge in demand has driven up gold and silver prices, creating notable premiums in North American markets. However, a research firm argues that concerns over tariffs may be exaggerated.
In a report by BCA Research, commodity analysts revealed they had taken a short position in silver as a contrarian play against tariff fears.
They stated, “There is a strong likelihood that the U.S. will not impose import tariffs on gold, silver, platinum, or copper. There is no compelling economic or political motivation for the U.S. to take such action.” They added, “Since the recent surge in precious metal prices has been driven by tariff concerns, investors may react negatively to these price increases.”
BCA also noted that if the U.S. were to impose tariffs on gold and silver, they would likely be introduced alongside steel and aluminum tariffs.
Analysts concluded, “The silver market is relatively shallow and less liquid, making it more vulnerable to short-term price declines than gold. However, any short-term weakness presents an attractive opportunity for cyclical and structural positioning in this precious metal.”
