Bearish Bias in Richemont: A Head & Shoulder Price Pattern AnalyRichemont
Bearish Bias in Richemont: A Head & Shoulder Price Pattern Analysis”
A bearish bias is indicated by the breakout of the price from a Head & Shoulder price pattern.
(MAs 7<21<200 confirms the bearish sentiment.
Additionally, RSI below 50 further supports the bearish bias.
Target is set at R1800.
Richemont – the company
Richemont is a multinational luxury goods holding company based in Switzerland. It is one of the world's leading luxury goods companies, specializing in high-end jewellery, watches, fashion, and accessories.
The company was founded in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert and is listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange.
Richemont owns a portfolio of renowned luxury brands, including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Montblanc, IWC Schaffhausen, Piaget, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Vacheron Constantin, Panerai, and Chloe, among others. These brands are known for their craftsmanship, design excellence, and heritage.
The company operates through several divisions, including Jewellery Maisons, Specialist Watchmakers, and Other Businesses.
The Jewellery Maisons division encompasses brands specializing in fine jewellery and luxury accessories, while the Specialist Watchmakers division focuses on high-end watch brands.
The Other Businesses division includes various luxury fashion, accessories, and online retail businesses.
Richemont has a global presence with operations in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Americas, and the Middle East.
The company's products are sold through a combination of directly operated boutiques, authorized retailers, and e-commerce channels.
As a leading luxury goods company, Richemont places great emphasis on quality, craftsmanship, and design innovation.
Its brands cater to discerning consumers who value exclusivity and exceptional quality. Richemont's commitment to sustainability is also evident through its initiatives to promote responsible sourcing of materials and ethical practices within the luxury industry.
The company's financial performance is closely watched by investors, as it serves as an indicator of the overall health of the luxury goods market.
Richemont's success is often tied to global economic conditions, consumer confidence, and luxury spending trends.
CFR trade ideas
Richemont (CFR): Short OpportunityCFR has put a stellar performance with earnings that spurred a short covering, price created an island reversal pattern, closed the gap & tried to push higher but buyers are showing exhaustion, looking at the intermediate cycle, we are in week 34, usually a time for a weekly low price. This means we will have a longer weekly cycle. We watch for price going below R3,053.00 as this point is a potential daily cycle low. Once this is set we can expect at least 8 weeks of price trending downwards.
RICHEMONT (CFR)Richemont's trading chart signals a potential entry into Impulsive Wave 5, as observed on the weekly time frame.
- Monitor the emergence of support above the previous high of Impulsive Wave (1) resistance.
- This support could drive a price movement towards the 400 level.
NOTE: RICHEMONT - These ultra-luxe brands appeal to the top 0.01% of earners, who remain insulated from economic downturns.
They fall into the category of Veblen Goods, witnessing increased demand as prices climb. This trend parallels the automotive industry, exemplified by Ferrari.
Reference: Ghostmail
CFR Richemont (CFR, 280455c) | The share remains below it's declining 50-day EMA which supports a bearish medium term 'trading' bias. The share trades at the mean of it's downward trending 50-day linear regression trend channel which, on a standard deviation basis, is neither bullish or bearish while since since 20 July, the share has traded in a sideways (consolidation) range. Note: The price is nearing a ‘first’ re-test of it’s rising 200-day simple moving average which is level at which long term traders often look to accumulate.
$JSECFR - Richemont: Recent Outlook Invalidated, Now What?The outlook shared 14.07.2023 did not survive market forces, link below.
The bigger picture remains intact but wave 4 is making a more complex and deeper wave structure.
Waves ((w-x)) both unfolded as simple zigzags and wave ((y)) is in its early stages.
Market momentum is still to the upside and this is a correction of a larger uptrend.
I remain bullish but will sit on my hands until the corrective structure looks more complete.
Richemont breakaway gap for the downsideInverse C&H has formed on Richemont.
Before the handle formed, it made a Breakaway gap.
This is where the price stopped its current uptrend, broke below where there is liquidity that didn't fill, and then continued down.
Now gaps close 70% of the time, so we could get a spike up before the downside. But that would be for a conservative trader.
Other indicators show downside to come.
7=21
Price>200
RSI <50
Target R2,299
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Origins:
Richemont was created in 1988 by South African businessman Johann Rupert. Its creation represented the spin-off of international assets owned by Rembrandt Group Limited of South Africa.
Headquarters:
The company's global headquarters is located in Bellevue, Switzerland.
Luxury Brands Portfolio:
Richemont owns several of the world's leading luxury goods companies, with particular strengths in jewelry, luxury watches, and premium accessories.
Their portfolio includes brands such as Cartier, Dunhill, Montblanc, and Van Cleef & Arpels.
Watch Expertise:
The company is known for its Swiss watchmaking brands like Jaeger-LeCoultre, Piaget, IWC, Baume et Mercier, Vacheron Constantin, Officine Panerai, and Roger Dubuis.
Global Reach:
Richemont operates in over 35 countries globally and sells its products in over 100 countries.
$JSECFR - Richemont: Buy The Third Of The Fifth WaveThe last update on Richemont was on 10.03.2023 and the stock has traded as forecasted, link below.
*On 18 April 2023 Compagnie Financière Richemont SA converted its depositary receipts to A shares, depositary receipts were surrendered for A Shares in a ratio of 10 Depositary Receipts for one A Share. Historical prices have thus been adjusted.
Wave 3 peaked at 347987 and was followed by a simple three wave zigzag for wave 4.
Price looks to be rallying in the early stages of wave ((iii)) of 5 of (3).
Third waves tend to be strong thrusts so this could run for a while if the wave count is correct.
Aggressive stops can be placed below 300837 though only a break below 290728 will invalidate the outlook that wave 4 has bottomed.
Richemont showing strong upside after unusual patternRising Wedge formed on Richemont with a prior uptrend.
And believe it, it's broken up. This is normally a reversal pattern that breaks down.
However, since the share distribution, the demand has been sky high pushing the price up.
7>21>200
RSI>70
Target R4,142
All the great elements of a rising trend.
Richemont shooting up since share distribution to R4,142 Rising Wedge has formed on Daily.
Normally you expect the price to break down as it's generally a bearish pattern.
However, as the trend is up, the wedge is up and the gap is up - signals strong upside.
The price has broken up, and we could get a bit of downside before the next move up.
7>21>200
RSI>70
Target R4,142
FUNDAMENTALS:
It seems like since the share distribution 1:10, investors are seeing the share as a valuable one to hold in long term portfolios, which is why they're buying the share up.
R3,400 is more attractive than a R340.00 share clearly.
We'll have to see how this one plays out
FUNDAMENTALS-Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split) RichemontOn 19 April 2023, Richemont went through a Share Consolidation (Reverse Stock Split).
That's why we saw the price move from R300 up to R3,027 (909%).
But before you get excited with whether you could have profited big time we need to remember what a Reverse Stock Split is...
What is a Reverse Split (Share consolidation)?
• The opposite of a stock split where
• When the company makes a corporate action to
• Reduce the number of its outstanding shares to its shareholders
• Which simultaneously increases the share price
• The shareholder will still have the same value proportional.
What happens to the par value of the share price?
A decrease in the number of shares means that the share price will go up!
Why would a company do a reverse spit?
The company might be under the impression that shareholders think the share price is too low.
So, they’ll cut the number of shares and increase the shareholder which will give the impression of the share price higher and more valuable.
EXAMPLE: With Richemont – 19 April 2023
SPECIFICS:
Share consolidation: Reverse Stock Split 10:1.
BEFORE: The share price was R300.00
AFTER: The share price is R3,027
No. SHARES OWNED: 100
AFTER CONSOLIDATION:
For every 10 shares you owned before, you now own 1 share.
So your 100 shares would be consolidated into 10 shares.
OVERALL VALUE:
BEFORE: 100 shares X R300 = R30,000
AFTER: 10 shares X R3,027 = R30,270
In this case, the value of the investment has indeed increased after the share consolidation but only marginally.
What just happened to Richemont? 911%!REMINDER: Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is a Swiss luxury goods company that has a subsidiary in South Africa.
The subsidiary's depositary receipts and warrant receipts were previously listed and traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
However, starting from April 19th, 2023, these financial instruments will be suspended from trading on the JSE and relevant A shares and relevant A warrants will instead be listed on the exchange.
Hold your horses!
The 912% increase in Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) share price likely resulted from the conversion of financial instruments related to the company's South African subsidiary.
The company announced a deadline for the conversion of depositary receipts and warrant receipts, which resulted in the suspension of trading on the Johannesburg stock exchange and the listing of relevant shares and warrants on the exchange.
This process likely had a positive impact on the company's share price and resulted in the significant increase.
Is $cfr $jsecfr about to rollover?$cfr is trading above its long term channel it has respected since 2007. Last time it flew above this channel its wings melted. The RSI and Moneyflow indicators show that strength is leaking out of this share. Investors are securing profits. This is a quality share with a strong outlook but may return to former support around CHF 127 to consolidate. Not a good long term entry currently. On the JSE the move could be influenced by the USDZAR strength or weakness. If the dollar rolls over this share will roll over too.
$JSECFR - Richemont: Buy The DipsAfter a 41% decline from 25044 to 14734, CFR has had a strong run to new all time highs.
The move from 16852 has a classic wave ((iii)) look and therefore the implication is that CFR is still trading within wave 3.
A correction for wave ((iv)) will provide a good buying opportunity.