CFR trade ideas
CFR - Target Reached After 9 MonthsWe may derive the following from the Weekly CFR chart:
1. Price finally reached target after 9 months (see linked idea).
2. At present, having reached a major monthly support (purple line) it would appear that some profit taking is happening.
3. Price is now testing the latest resistance. Wait for a reversal for further downside.
4. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
CFRRichemont Monthly Chart | Although being a business in a solid financial position, the recent virus outbreak has posed a risk to travel and luxury spend. In addition the 25x earnings multiple may not be pricing aforementioned risk. At current levels, technical setup sees the share trading toward the lower boundary of the channel that has been in development since July 2013, while a large megaphone formation has also been developed. A break below this channel opens up 7800c and potentially 6000c.
Could Richemont lose some of the Bling-factor?After the recent third quarter sales update (€4,156m vs consensus of €4,165m), we saw Richemont enjoy a bit of rally, which subsequently saw the share price breakthrough its resistance line. This was however short-lived and ended up being a false breakout.
My biggest worries currently include:
• Continued weakness and recent downgrades in Hong Kong, could see some further pressure on the organic sales growth;
• Further slowdown in e-commerce;
• China GDP forecast by IMF for 2020 projected at 6%, down from 6.1% for 2019.
• Thomson Reuters (TR) target price for the company is R111.40 , which gives investors currently no possible upside on the shorter-term (if consensus had to be right).
With CFR breaking back below the resistance line and its 8-day Moving Average (MA), could see the share price now test the 21-day MA at R113.43 over the short-term. The strongest support level remains the 200-day MA (at R111.64), which ironically coincide with the current TR target price. A break and close below the 200-day MA could very much see the share price test the R108 levels, with a break and close below these levels bring the October 2019 lows of R104 back into play. My preferred entry point is R98, but would most probably start buying at R101. My long-term view on Richemont still remain positive - would however like to see China turn more positive first.
$JSE-CFRJSE:CFR
Testing bottom of range, break lower and drop or bounce from here towards top of the range.
Richemond - Sell for high exposure to tourists and chinaChina consumers make for 45% of sales, while tourism sale smake for 50% of sales.
It will also be important to monitor the evolution of coronavirus. The scientific community is still learning about the virus and there is still a lot of unknown. Financial market’s belief that the disease has been contained may be over-optimistic.
Sell with a stop at $78
Richemont (CHF)If Coronavirus spread continues at current infection growth rate, then minimum target is CHF64 (-11%) and likely to target bottom of channel at CHF53 (-26%)
CFR - Bearish OutlookWelcome to 2020 :)
We may derive the following from the Weekly CFR chart:
1. Price remains bearish imo - as currently seen by the rejection at the yellow box.
2. It is possible, that once the correction wave breaks, the main downtrend will continue.
3. Wait for an opportunity to present itself. And as always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Richemont in a Nice SqueezeCFR seems to be gathering steam to push up, it has found itself in a squeeze right at the end of the chart. Will see confirmation in the new year. The volumes around this time can be a bit misleading.
$JSE-CFRJSE:CFR
Consolidating in flat bottom triangle after initial big drop.
Rand strength works in favor of bears .
CFR - Short Term Trading ViewCFR Richemont | Hourly chart candles are encouraging as consolidation takes place within the luxury goods sector (Kering possibly interested in acquiring Moncler, LVMH buying Tiffany).
$JSECFR DAILYRichemont DAILY is heading down towards the trend line SUPPORT. The RSI is pointing down but price is around the 200day MA(Blue line) which my provide support.
$JSE-CFRJSE:CFR
Break up from cup and handle formation.
Back test happening right now.
Target 11900/12000
CFR: bounce off support with bullish divergenceCFR shows hidden bullish divergence while going up and has bounced off support. Buy at R111, stop below R108 and take profit around R119.
$JSE-CFRJSE:CFR
Consolidates in small box after initial drop .
Break bellow will first target 10300 area but ultimate target should be around 9800
