CFR trade ideas
Fib 50.0 and rising flag continuationWe expect this fella to drop even further because of this rising flag!!!
Top5 oversold/overbought according to RSI & RichemontThis week, the most noticeable thing to point out is the fact that 4 out of the top 5 most “overbought” companies are all Platinum mines. With the recent pullback in the Platinum price (in USD) and somewhat stronger Rand, I will caution any long positions in all four these mines over the shorter term.
Oversold:
Prosus 28
Ascendis Health 29
Richemont 30
Rhodes Food 31
Cashbuild 31
Overbought:
Northam Platinum 77
Capitec Bank 76
Royal Bafokeng Platinum 76
Impala Platinum 75
Anglo American Platinum 71
This week I want to spend some time on Richemont. First, my disclaimer. I like this company and is personally invested. I bought Richemont just below R100/share in November last year ( oldoak.co.za ) and recently sold half the position just over R120/share as we felt the share price was somewhat “overvalued”. Would I buy it back now?
We still believe that Richemont is a quality business, and if you don’t own any, could use these “oversold” levels to buy for example, half of your total portfolio weight. The 50-day moving average is still pointing downward, which indicates that the trend is still very much downward. Should we see further weakness, we could get some support at R97.60, where I would look to buy back the other half of my position.
Should we see a breakthrough R97.60 levels, we could see the share price seeking support at R92.50. Short-term traders would most probably use this level as their stop-loss as a break and close below these levels, breaking a 3-year support line.
Should we see a recovery in the share price from current levels, could see resistance firstly at the 50-day moving average (R107.52), with, next resistance being the 200-day moving average (R116.64).
$JSECFR DAILYHammer on SUPPORT on the DAILY and price is moving up. OVERSOLD but pointing upwards on the STOCHASTIC. TARGET around R113.00 the next RESISTANCE level and TOP of the SHORT TERM range.
CFR Head & ShouldersCFR has formed a head and shoulders pattern which could mean a downward move if it breaks through the neckline.
As always, wait for confirmation.
Trade Idea: Risky Richemont There appears to be no end in sight for the protests in Hong Kong, a major market for luxury goods, specifically timepieces. In addition Macau gaming revenue is down by 8.6% for August which means that gamers are taking less risk. This, combined with a strengthening Rand, has seen Richemont give up some of it's recent gains. Today's the price is breaking down from it's incline support while trading below it's declining near term moving averages. Based on these factors, I would look to sell the next rebound.
Trading Plan:
Short/Sell CFR on a rebound back above R117.20
To protect capital, use a stop-loss of R121.50
Take profit at or close to R111.70
Risky RichemontThere appears to be no end in sight for the protests in Hong Kong, a major market for luxury goods, specifically timepieces. In addition Macau gaming revenue is down by 8.6% for August which means that gamers are taking less risk. This, combined with a strengthening Rand, has seen Richemont give up some of it's recent gains. Today's the price is breaking down from it's incline support while trading below it's declining near term moving averages. Based on these factors, I would look to sell the next rebound.
Trading Plan:
Short/Sell CFR on a rebound back above R117.20
To protect capital, use a stop-loss of R121.50
Take profit at or close to R111.70
CFR Bull flag About to breakup.?CRF looking good to move higher. A breakup above R121,00 could see a back to test R132-R136 resistence zone.
RR 2:1 with stoploss below R115.
CFR - Finally MovingWe may derive the following from the Weekly CFR chart:
1. Price has respected our initial structure (See linked idea).
2. Currently short from the backtest and anticipating a move down to the corrective trend line.
3. Do take note of the demand zone around 110 (purple box).
4. Monitor price action and watch for further shorting potential.
5. As always - maintain your risk.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Update idea
$JSECFR Richemont. Fake break or retest ? This could be either a flag break retest or a fake break. If the retest holds, targets could be 12450, 12900. If it break back into flag, consolidation could continue and the long trade id off the table.
Richemont - Is Bling still the Thing?Although Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA (CFR) has found its share price in a recovery phase since November 2018, the 200-day Moving Average is still very much pointing downwards, which serves as indication that the trend isn’t all that healthy yet. Price movement since March 2019 created a Descending Triangle that could be very positive for CFR, should we see a break and close above the resistance line R106, which could see us test the March 2019 levels of R110 again. As mentioned however, the trend is still pointing downwards, indicating that a possible test of support line at R97.60 could likely be in play. Should we see a break through this support level, our longer-term support trendline at R91.30 could be tested. Technically, we would recommend holding back on buying until confirmation of an upward break can be seen.
We also wrote a full summary on the results and fundamental report on the company - Read it Here oldoak.co.za
CFR Consolidating just below ResistanceMarked out some targets based on my Pivot Extensions
Long this as it looks good for a move up
CFR - Backtest of doom?Looking at the Richemont, we may derive the following from the weekly chart:
1. CFR is at a notable resistance level where price has slowly started to reject the previous trend line. (The backtest)
2. We are seeing a correction pattern in play.
3. I am favouring a move to downside in the near future.
4. If the backtest holds, bears will bring the price down.
5. As always - maintain your risk management.
Let's see what happens.
Note: The views provided herein do not constitute financial advice.
Upward Momentum on CFRThe exponential moving averages have crossed upwards, the stochastic has made an upward turn and MACD is also on the up.
These are all signs to go long as the momentum is moving upwards.
CFR Short off ResistanceJSE:CFR is bouncing off resistance and has formed a bearish harami which is a top reversal signal. We can expect a downward move.
Shorting Richemont -With the Rand blow out today, we may see CFR test the upper resistance band today. Should it get that close, I will be looking to short (above R110.00). The stock was trading below R100.00 just 10 days ago and has become quite over-bought as it trades just above the 200 day moving average. The trade rules for this one are pretty simple. A break above that overhead resistance will be the signal to bail out , but I am happy to place a stop loss just above 116.00. ( volatility is a factor). My target; R98.00 (but I'll probably take it early)
