Perfect zone to buy upthis is a perfect setup for other companies or major share holders to buy in a DOWJones listed stock.
IBM trade ideas
IBM: WHAT TO DO WITH BIG BLUE?FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE: CHALLENGING
With a consensus recommendation to HOLD and an average consensus price upside of only +10%, it seems the average analyst is not too keen on owning this name. This could be explained by the diminishing topline (5-yr CAGR -5.65%) or the decreasing bottom line (5-yr CAGR -1.0%), or a combination of both reinforced by ROE trending down (albeit from a high level), as well as negative cash-flow growth. In all cases, the market seems to believe that this is not an asset to own on any fundamental basis.
TECHNICAL PICTURE: QUITE POOR
IBM Looks technically weak on most time frames, with most technical indicators negative. In particular, mind the negative cross-over of MA20/MA50 in December 2014 and MA20/MA100 in March 2016. Main support from here seems to be the MA200 at $128/share on the monthly chart, corresponding nearly exactly to the bottom of the descending wedge (red line on the long term chart below). Intermediate levels down are $148 / $142 / $138. On the medium-term weekly chart, IBM looks like it reached an intermediary top at $182.79 on February 16 of this year. Since then, the stock has been selling-off hard on significant, above-average volume. On the daily chart, IBM’s weakness is confirmed and reinforced by multiple and significant gaps down: -4.87% on April 19 and -3.47% on May 5. The former corresponds to the most recent earnings disappointment, when the stock gapped down in 4x average volume, and failed to properly recover. The stock currently looks mildly oversold on the medium-term chart and much oversold on the daily chart (RSI = 12.85).
FLOW PICTURE: SCARY?
When Mr. Buffett sells out of his structural position on Big Blue, this sends a negative signal and bodes one question: If Mr. Buffett does not believe in it, should we? Most of the time, holding contrarian positions in the face of influential institutional investors has proven dangerous, if not painful. This a red flag for any ownership of this stock.
MACRO PICTURE: DOWN
The indices are currently looking toppish, and signs of divergence are starting to appear between the technology leaders (NASDAQ) and the rest of the market (SPX, DJIA). This lack of breadth with technology thrusting forward against all odds begs for some adjustment. Will it be a time consolidation, a downward adjustment (selloff), or a coordinated move above the current resistances (breakout)? As we do not have the answer to this question, proper risk management tells us to continue to expect a consolidation until the latter and third scenario (breakout) is proven true. In the meantime, we would like to remain very selective with any new positions. In particular, it makes sense to be particularly careful with weak stocks, as they are likely to become weaker should the market consolidate.
CONCLUSION ON IBM: STAY AWAY OR USE OPTIONS
In conclusion, the main elements going for IBM at the moment are the fact that its valuation is low relative to the market, and that it looks oversold, none of which is reason enough to build a position in it at this time - Valuations can go lower, and an oversold condition can persist for a long time. There appears to be more attractive assets to own in the current market than Big Blue. For those looking to benefit from an eventual short-term rebound in the stock, prefer the use of options in order to minimize risk and exposure. In particular, note that the volatility has remained quite low even in the context of the stock going down, hence encouraging the purchase of options. For about $1/share, one can buy a slightly OTM call which should appreciate in case the stock pops (even though it remains unclear at this time what could trigger such a pop).
IBM - BullishIBM stock is trending up
sort term price created a rising channel with a continuation bull flag
the company posted better then expected earnings and paid dividends
long term hold is an option but here i present a trade with a good P/L (2/1)
Might be a good day to pick up some IBM after the panic selling So Mr Buffet dumped his shares of IBM and the flocks are selling at a discount. Wouldn't be surprised if Ole Country Buffet bought this dip himself!
Looking for a big long wick closing above the old neckline with volume.
or
A dip in price at open that reverse early in the morning and then blasts past the opening price with some volume.
Or
Just watch it drop like a rock and never return!
IBM Bullish Long TermGap fill trading. Simply wait for bottom to form and enter on a retracement for gap target.
IBM - POTENTIAL BOTTOM05.05.17
Signal for a potential bottom from one of my dBFI.
Awaiting confirmation
Possible completion of Wave 2, setup for Wave 3 LONGIt seems we may have a confirmation of the end of a Wave 2, ready to trade a Wave 3 LONG.
TDI in this instance shows almost oversold position and would correspond directly with the price action and structure.
The Mustard, Ketchup, Mayo and Blueberry EMAs have also all crossed (note Crossing of Ketchup and Blueberry EMAs) suggesting an imminent reversal to go LONG.
Entry on this stock would be on breakout of Structure as shown by the trendline breakout point (in RED).
Caution always advised.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk.
Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::.....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Buy IMB between $158 and $155.5 for dead cat bounce.Buy IMB between $158 and $155.5 for dead cat bounce. It will have a dead cat bounce soon.
IBM is backtesting the downtrend lineYup, IBM had 20 YoY consecutive quarter declines. Fundamental are bad at this time. But stock usually reflects the future. So, let's look at the chart...
IBM (3) Retracement levelsIBM (1h) retraced 0.382 ($ 169.58), calculated from "Minor"-wave 3! The other levels are the measured results from the "Minute"-wave a of this ZigZag correction pattern the stock is in. Minimum retracement for a wave "c" is 0.618 of wave "a" (identical with 0.382) or 1.000 ($ 166.10) or 1.618 ($ 160.00), although reaching the last level seems to be unrealistic. Wait till the price has touched the supprt-line at 1.000! (Nice opp. for conservative investors...)
Is this a Top?Trading below the neckline is bearish! The Chart only brightens with Prices > the right shoulder.
Former view:
IBM oversold and at the trend linepicked up some IBM calls 2 weeks out for a potential bounce based on trendline support and oversold rsi.
IBM (Part 2) Still walking down the line..IBM still above support line. Take it as a stopwatch: If IBM hits the 0.382, it's probably time to go long for the whole market!
IBM (Part 1) near 0.382After breaking out of the old trading channel a few days ago, IBM is "walking down the line". This wave ("Minor" - wave 4) has a normal ZigZag- pattern and IBM is in impuls c, the final leg of the correction.
Waves 4 normally correct 0.382 ( $ 170). In a few days and on this level or just below ($ 166), there could be a nice opportunity to go long! (Depending, in which direction the general market wants to go.)
IBM - Weekly Swing Trade1. IBM has moved up nicely after bottom in 1Q 2016. Prices exceeded the weekly 200sma for the first time in 18mths and have reached a Measured Move target around $184.
2. Prices are due for a 10bar/2 leg retracement or consolidation before continuing upward to test $190-$200.
3. Continue to watch the pullback and look for an entry near the Breakout level of $170, which also coincides with the 200sma support.
4. I will update with the options play as we get closer to an entry.
5. Prices have clean trend, respect for 34EMA and an RSI that peaked cleaning with price convergence. Good looking potential setup.
