Downtrend for IBM crystallizesIBM just reported less than expected earning, price manage to find its way to current downtrend channel bottom.
I see a support around 157. So i gotta be patient first.
IBM trade ideas
Will $IBM Hold 165.97? It's unlikely but may take the market Today's price weakness to hold above 170 was a big concern and a sign of big guys are not ready to jump in now. If what we see is accurate, there is higher chance that $IBM may finally retest 155 area next 3-months and that could be a market indicator for what to come next 3 months. If you decide to take a short position, make your stop lose at 172.5 with target prices 155 and 145 area.
I got some attention from Buffett24days ago, i posted on IBM's consolidating triangle since the appearance of shooting star on 9 Apr.
I took a risk on 25 Sept to short when the price got rejected by my 8ema & 20ema (posted in real-time as you can check the different in candle).
When the price broke down of the smaller triangle bottom, and followed by the broke down again of the bigger triangle bottom, i knew my odds are in good hand.
My original anticipation is for the price to retest the bottom of the bigger triangle before the next lower low.
And, since i am ready to lose first before i make handsome gain, i am mentally prepared for IBM's earning to beat analyst's expectation. If that is the case, the price will surely GAP UP and perhaps testing the 200ema. Then i would have to hold the options longer until the price drop
Hence, somehow it is just an early Christmas gift from Warren Buffett (IBM is one of his holdings)
In a matter of 3 weeks, i shorted KO & IBM, i think i got some attention from Buffett, he he
NOTE: Holding an options and carry it into earning can either slaughter your gain or flush you with handsome gain. But always be prepared to lose first
Breakout strategy to short IBMSince the "shooting star" delivered the lethal blow in 10 April, IBM has since consolidating in symmetrical triangle pattern.
How it close tonight at the crucial point region will more or less set the pace for October.
IBM.Prediction.Hello.Stock stages are on the chart.I Havent draw the decline stage because its hasnt established and we dont see yet a specific signal.We had a support (172.23) and then a uptrend still today(blue trend line).Furthermore the price has reach the resistance level 1 (fibo 23.6%) and next weeks will be important to see if the price go above that level or below.
Now.From MA10, MA20 we dont have a specific signal which can shown us if the market will go above the resistance level 1 because they cross each other, which mean that we have a short indecision there. In addition volume show us that buyers and sellers are not so aggresive after the support.Generally i think that this time its not good option to take part in this stock.
If the stock smash the level 1 we go for next high at level 2 (in my opinion i think that this will not happen).The most possible scenario is to enter the decline stage at least in the end of the year.Stop losses when the price go below MA295 and all of your position if smash the blue trend line(which is and the primary trend line for this year)
Thanks.
IBM Corp Daily (10.Sep.2014) Technical Analysis Training The IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has declined following a resistance red line into a triangle. The weekly diagram is neutral.
So the first think in mind is the reaction from the KUMO.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is on the KUMO and under the Tenkan Sen too (green line). The SPAN A is above SPAN B.
There is no special pattern.
Long for the upper resistance first. Stop loss under the KUMO.
**In a long term view I saw a reversal pattern that could drive the share at 220 and upper.
IBM Bulls need to keep the fight Last 3 sessions, market helped the bulls to keep the fight, but it looks bears are not giving up soon. The chance the price to retrace back to 186.20 increased today. We had entered or recommended short entry at 192 last Thursday with target price $186.20 area.There is a large bearish triangle in the process, last higher lows at and around 183. 58 the low of this month stopped short to breakout downside, and rebounded with light volume as the general market did it. Now, there two conflicting bullish/bearish triangle but the chance to see that happen will depend on what market does next few weeks. Until then, we expect to make a few QLT/QST trades. The site now is open for new clients if you are interested in you can checkout www.2waytrading.com
Will $IBM Clear overhead resistance?See the notes on the chart. We may initiate a trade soon. Now, there is no position. If you decide to take a trade do your own risk management.
IBM Daily (18.08.2014) Tech Analysis EMAThis week we will see the EMA (50,100,200) and MACD,RSI for various diagrams.
The IBM Share (IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The IBM tries to breach the EMA 50 today with a long green candlestick from 0.5 of fib to 0.618. There is a sense of bull market because the EMA 50 is above EMA 100 & EMA 200 and EMA 100 is above EMA 200 too. There are some Golden crosses last month.
MACD is turning bullish on the zero line. RSI moves to 51.
There is a support line and all seems bullish.
If it closes as is, long for 191.96 first and stop loss under 187.73.
Updated 14 Months, IBM Circle Cycle Theory I've made an enormous amount of progress in the past 14 months concerning a price action system that works for me. Tim West asked me to update this chart, and I've cleaned it up, scraped the circle theory idea, and replaced it with my own system that is far more accurate and MUCH more simple.
Essentially, I created this chart with much less understanding of how markets move. Today, I've annotated areas of accumulation, distribution, legs, and levels. The areas of support gained will eventually become support lost as price attempts to retest the Leg Start. This is a rule that price always follows, but could take time. You will also notice that key levels also usually line up with Fibonacci levels. I only use fib levels for all time high breakouts these days, but call it whatever you like, I just included it for those of you that like using fibs.
The target area that I'm interested in is the first touch of the Leg Start around 130, and if momo continues, even a test of the LS Mean Point around 100.
Chart from 14 Months Ago:
IBM Corp Daily (12.08.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has reacted from the bottom of KUMO and nw is exactly on the EMA 200. The 0.618 of fib @188.42 is the test for today.
So the first think in mind is the overcome of Top of KUMO and the KijunSen_Tenkan Sen resistance at 189.99 for this week.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is into the KUMO and under the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line). The Chikun Span has a block of resistance.
There is no special pattern.
Long for 188.42 first and 189.99 secondly. Stop loss 185 (0.5 of fib).
$182.50 Buy zone from the sell offBoth last QLT and QST worked well. Expecting price to hit entry level for swing trade. Stay safe ad tuned for more to come.
IBM Corp Daily (07.08.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has declined sharply 29.07.2014 braking the support trend line (green) down. Now the price is exactly on the 0.5 of fib support.There is a new resistance line (red).
So the first think in mind is the support of 0.5 of fib or not. MACD is bearish and RSI too. The volume now is the usual.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is into the KUMO and the Kijun Sen (blue line) too but on the Tenkan Sen too (green line) that support the share. The Chikun Span will show today's support or not.
There is no special pattern.
In last diagram we have report to be careful @ $196-$197 because the returns from $180 to $195 movement was about 8,3% and we had a profit take event.
For a long view the share must test the top of KUMO. Otherwise short under resistance line.
Wide Range Sell-off Bars At Highs Are A Warning Sign One of the best chart patterns to spot a major downside move in a stock before it happens, is when there is a wide range reversal bar from a high. For example, take a look at the chart below of International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM). This is a weekly chart of the stock which shows a major decline in April 2013. Notice the wide range sell-off bar that was very close to the high. At the time of the decline, IBM stock was trading around $212.00 a share, by the time that red bar closed the stock was trading around $190.00 a share. Now that is a wide range sell-off bar from a high and it will usually always indicate lower prices ahead for the stock. As you can see, over the next six months the stock declined as low as $173.00 a share before being defended by the institutional money. Take a look at other charts where a stock sold off sharply from the highs and you will see that it was often an indication that the stock was going to decline further in the near term future.
Nick Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Big Blue Turns Red (NYSE:IBM). Day Trade Level Here...This morning, leading tech giant International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is trading lower by $2.36 to $189.31 a share. Recently, it has been reported that there has been some insider selling from corporate officers in late July. This insider selling news could be weighing on the stock today. Day traders can now look for intra-day support on International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) stock around the $187.83 level. This is an area where day traders should expect a short term bounce. Only trade the best levels, this support area is a high probability level for a day trade, however, other factors should be considered when/if IBM trades down to that level. Keep this level on your charts...
Nick Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
IBM Corp Daily (28.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
It is exactly the same diagram like last two. The IBM share has extended the bullish movement above the support trend line (green) as the new agreement with Apple came out. This support line is now above the KUMO, which means that the IBM is forcing its bullishness. The weekly diagram shows bullish. The monthly is neutral.
So the first think in mind is the 196.35 level of resistance line. MACD is bullish and RSI too. The volume now is the usual.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is above the KUMO the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line) too.
There is no special pattern. So hold Long IBM and be careful @ $196-$197 because the returns from $180 to $195 movement is about 8,3% and maybe we have a profit take event. Today the share is trying to stay above the support line but it needs more volume.
I think the movement will continue within the current trend.I think the movement will continue within the current trend.
There is an attempt to return to the yellow trend.The chart trying to get back in the yellow trend. If to take into account the fact that the upper boundary of the current trend is above is quite possible. The lower bound of yellow trend coincides with the zero level of the pivot. This confirms the possible beginning of a rise.
IBM Corp Daily (19.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
It is exactly the same diagram from 10.07.2014. The IBM share has extended the bullish movement above the support trend line (green) as the new agreement with Apple came out. This support line is now above the KUMO, which means that the IBM is forcing its bullishness. The weekly diagram shows marginally bullish. The monthly is neutral.
So the first think in mind is how bullish will be the promise of the agreement between these companies. MACD is too bullish and RSI too. The volume in three last days is almost double than the usual.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is above the KUMO the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line).
There is no special pattern. Friday movement closed the uptrend gap. The fib from $172.82 to $198.06 shows the support now of 0.764 ($192.10).
Next target $198.06.
$IBM Today's pull back is opportunityYesterday's news with $AAPL partnership helped the stock to pop and continue today, but market hit by plane crash in Ukraine has stopped the upside momentum which will probably continue once the dust suttles. The falling wage had a measured move towards %196.60 which also falls at 61.8% golden ratio of FIBExn
IBM Corp Daily (10.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
The IBM share has made a short term bullish movement above the support trend line (green). This support line is under the KUMO, which means that the IBM is reacting weakly yet. The weekly diagram shows neutral trend. The monthly is neutral too.
So the first think in mind is the break or not of the support line. MACD is weakening its bullish and RSI too. The volume is as usual.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is under the KUMO but is above the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line).
There is no special pattern. The fib from $172.82 to $198.06 shows the support and resistance levels..
So I think that anyone must stay aside. If the share moves under the support line the next stop is Kijun Sen and 0.382 of fib (182.46). If it gets into the KUMO the it will retest the $188.42 for $192.10. The share needs larger volume from bulls.
