NVDA trade ideas
Most people are saying $50... I think $65 after a little bounceI am seeing put open interest and volume spike for PUTS expiring 04/25 for a strike price of $55 that were opened YESTERDAY...
There is over 60,000 contracts open and rarely do these not play out.
It has been my long term target to hit $65 - $60 even before NVDA split there shares.
Lets see tho, the tape for options expiring in late June look bullish at the moment
Next term.In my opinion, the uptrend was already over before the trade wars started.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
NVDA’s Final Act: A Breakout Waiting to HappenNVDA appears to be nearing the completion of its corrective phase, setting the stage for a potential move to new highs. The current pattern resembles a falling wedge, indicative of an ending diagonal formation, which often signals a reversal and the start of an upward trend.
The structure of the corrective channel, along with the termination of the diagonal pattern, suggests a high likelihood of a running flat formation. Buyers are likely to intensify demand pressure as the price approaches the lower boundary of the trendline. A trend reversal may occur if there is a decisive breakout above the Wave 4 level of the ending diagonal.
Buying opportunity with minimal stop is possible after the reversal from lower side of the channel. Targets can be 112 - 120 - 132 - 140.
I'll be sharing more details shortly.
Cryptocurrency and Stocks will DecoupleI still remember the AI saying that NVDA was going to 320 "in the near future." This was back in June 2024. No matter when you asked the AI, its only prediction would be up, it couldn't make an analysis based on the data coming from the chart. The program wasn't very intelligent, that's what I concluded.
I disagreed. NVDA is going down and this is now fully confirmed.
We are seeing a very long distribution phase and the crash is now taking place.
Ok, but what about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin will decouple from traditional markets, just look at the news.
While Cryptocurrency is due a generational bullish wave, the stock market is due a generational retrace.
I honestly don't know how the stock market will perform but I can look at individual charts. NVDA is bearish and going down strong.
NVDA, TSLA, the SPX, the NDX and Crypto are not the same. These are two completely different monsters.
The SPX and NDX is landline.
Crypto is free wireless internet for all.
The SPX and the NDX is centralization and control.
Bitcoin is decentralization, innovation, technology and freedom.
Times change.
The stock market will recover and it is sure to continue growing long-term.
Will the establishment let it crash or will they jump in and pump it up?
I don't know. But NVDA is bearish and going down. What one does, the rest follows.
But, what about Bitcoin? Bitcoin is going up.
It is very simple. They will decouple, they will not move together anymore. Many, many Altcoins are trading at bottom prices, many stocks are trading high up.
The giant stocks will crash, while the Cryptocurrency market goes up. This is one more of the reasons why we are about to experience the biggest bull-market in the history of Crypto.
People are evolving, the world is changing. We are changing from centralized monopoly money, to a free decentralized technology that is available for all.
Money is not the paper, the shiny stone or the codes; money is what we decide to use for the purpose of exchanging value.
At one time, salt used to be money as well as cows. Sea shells, glass and cacao are also on the list. People used to use these things as money.
The argument that Bitcoin has no value is obviously flawed. If you want to buy a Bitcoin you have to pay a price, that's value, nothing more.
If we decide to use something as money, it becomes money.
Bitcoin is money for the new generation.
The old generation dies out and a new one takes its place.
Life will continue to evolve and money will do the same.
Now it is Bitcoin, later down the road it will be something else. But Bitcoin has value, it is really expensive and it will continue to grow.
After the crash, NVDA will recover for sure.
Namaste.
NVIDIA: Still has a long way to go.NVIDIA turned from oversold to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.969, MACD = 44.021, ADX = 44.021) and is about to do the same on 1W too, as today's 90-day tariff pause announcement is giving the market an aggressive comeback. Technically though that doesn't seem enough to restore the tremendous bullish sentiment of 2023 and 1st half of 2024 as the trend is currently restricted by not only the 1D MA50 and MA200 but a LH trendline also coming straight from the ATH.
The same kind of LH kept NVDA at bay on its last main correction to the August 5th 2024 bottom. This started a +44.46% rally that got rejected on the LH trendline. If we apply that today we get a projected 1D MA200 test just under the LH trendline. A TP = 125.00 fits perfectly on the short term, but long term we still have a long way to go.
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NVDA Technical Analysis – April 9, 2025NVIDIA (NVDA) just got rejected at the top of a falling wedge channel on the 1H chart and is showing clear signs of continued bearish pressure. After testing a key resistance around the $102–$103 zone, price has sharply reversed and is now threatening to revisit lower trendline levels.
Market Structure & SMC Insight:
* NVDA remains in a strong downtrend with price confined in a descending wedge.
* There was no confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) or BOS (Break of Structure) indicating strength—only a lower high rejection.
* A red resistance zone remains around $103.70, while major support lies around $86.74.
* MACD is curling down after a bearish cross.
* Stoch RSI is pointing lower from the mid-zone, signaling more downside may be ahead.
* Volume has increased on this rejection, giving the move more credibility.
TrendInfo Sentiment Summary:
* MA: Bearish (-2.21%)
* DMI: Bearish (38.33)
* RSI, MACD, Stoch: All showing bearish confirmation.
* DPR (Directional Pressure Ratio): Bearish (43.5%)
* Fear & Greed: Fear (-15.78), overall Sell rating of 75%.
This suggests that short-term traders are risk-off and sentiment is skewed toward more downside.
Options GEX Analysis (Gamma Exposure & Sentiment):
* Current GEX shows strong PUT dominance at 28%, aligning with a bearish directional expectation.
* IV Rank (IVR) at 107.2 with IVx avg at 108.7 indicates high volatility; premiums are rich, great for credit spreads or directional put plays.
* Key Put Support at $90 with heavy GEX clustering below. This is your downside magnet.
* Call resistance sits near $102–$105 range, aligning with the recent rejection. Gamma walls at $108–$111 cap the upside.
Trade Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection confirmed. If NVDA breaks $94 again, a fast drop to $90 and even $86 support is on the table.
* Put Options with strikes at $90 or debit spreads can work well.
* Watch for continuation volume confirmation.
Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability for Now):
* Needs a reclaim of $103.70 with volume.
* A CHoCH + strong bullish candle would trigger potential upside targets of $108 and $111.
* Call debit spreads or long shares only if reversal is confirmed.
My Thoughts: NVDA continues to reflect sector-wide weakness in semis. Without strong market support, the path of least resistance remains down. Given the macro volatility and sentiment tilt toward fear, it's wise to position conservatively and trade with tight risk.
Final Suggestion:
* Put Bias Active
* Avoid heavy call exposure unless reclaim of $103 occurs
* Sell premium if IV stays elevated (e.g. credit spreads)
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NVDIAgain...long at 111.43This is gonna be my 6th long idea on NVDA since Mid-December. Sorry if this is getting boring, but if it keeps working, why stop?
It's not in a great pattern, but then again it wasn't the other 5 times, either. It has been in a downtrend since early December, but even stocks in downtrends don't have to go down in straight lines, and that's what I'm counting on here. There is some support semi-close by, too.
It's a good company, and trading them in tough times (I think the last 6 weeks qualifies there, don't you?) gives me the best odds of making money. NVDA has never let me down - literally never. Sometimes it takes longer than others, but it always pays. I haven't updated my W/L record on it lately, but the 5 trades on the chart are the last 5 I've made and it was undefeated before all of them. You can go back and look at them if you desperately want to know - I know it's in at least one of those but I don't feel like going back and looking for the exact number right now. I know it's at least 100s to 0. Edit: I felt bad being lazy so I went and looked it up. It's 722-0, and that's a good enough reason for me to trade it today.
So I'm long at 111.43, but I am making a little twist to my usual trade plan. I will be adding if it falls, but not using my usual methodology. It's a twist I've been working on for trading downtrending stocks. It's complicated, so I'll just update here whenever I add, and the adds will still be near the close when I make them. I will still use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any reasonable profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NVIDIA: Time for a Graphic Comeback?🔍Analysis:
Following up from a previous breakdown, NVIDIA has now tapped into a high-probability Weekly Order Block (OB) just above the sell-side liquidity zone at $88.97. This level also aligns with a structural area of support, making it a prime zone for a potential bullish reversal.
Key signs:
Price is showing early signs of displacement from the OB.
If this zone holds, we could be looking at a 77% move back up to the buyside liquidity at $157.92.
Watch for a strong weekly candle close above $96.30 to confirm the bounce.
🛑 Invalidation:
If price fails to hold this OB and breaks below $88.97, expect a deeper move into the $76.06 zone.
💡 Summary:
Patience is key. We’re sitting on a solid base for a potential bullish push — now it’s all about the confirmation candle. 📊
DYOR — Don't just HODL, study the chart!
NVDA rebound after PANIC SELLING
This idea is a perfect example of how the market gives you different signs at the reversal points.
Let's recap from the beginning:
1. First, there was the CRACK pattern of the support, which warns of a bearish move.
2. There was an attempt to go higher which did not work out.
3. There was a GAP DOWN, that needed to materialize the CRACK pattern to the downside, but it did not act right, and did not spill right away and there was a bounce above the broken pink support line.
4. After #3, you would expect a Bullish move, the BLUE trajectory, since #3 acted as a real-time lookalike of a SPRING by Wyckoff methodology. But the BLUE did not materialize, so it did not "act right" according to Jesse Livermore.
5. When we started going down again on wider and wider bearish candles, this confirms again the CRACK PATTERN.
What is the CRACK PATTERN?
The crack pattern is when there is a CLEAR support/resistance line, that has been "cracked", but then there is a "retest" a false move, to the other side, as if the CRACK is the false move, but the CRACK signifies the upcoming strong move. Once the CRACK is being CRACKED again, the big explosive move should come.
6. The CRACK pattern materialized, and we got the spilldown = STRONG SHORT MOVE.
7. See my educational idea about this CRACK PATTERN, as "found" before the fact, this time it was more tricky than usual since it did not follow "the right way" as right away as usually happens on a weaker stock since NVDA has a bullish outlook. So it "put out a fight. Or in the puppet master view... if the public want to buy higher before the fall... there is no reason to sell him lower... so the price rebound and the fall did not materialized right away.
8. The moral lesson from this, is that in realtime, you need to change your hypothesis as you go. Once a signs for strong movement happen, then you want it to "ACT RIGHT". If it does not act the way you know, you need to quickly change your direction.
Phase 4 broken, the hyperwave will be completedWe've seen this cycle across more or less in all kinds of assets. the MAG7 is no exception. As today, we've broken down from Phase 4, despise you like it or not, once these structures break down, PA(price action) will always find its way back to its true fair value.
Already called it, but this time, we get a closer look towards the TA in NVDA.
Sequentials are settled in, we're going for a 9 monthly count of sequential bars down, the intensity of the moves is yet to be known, but alas, we will have to look at SMA's and the range of the monthly Linear Regression, they all have supports around 80, 40, 20.
And as usual, be safe, don't long this.
NVIDIA About to TANK? Or Just Cooling Off?After one of the most explosive bull runs in tech history, NVIDIA is showing signs of exhaustion — and this chart’s screaming a massive correction incoming.
🧠 Chart Insights (2W Time Frame):
Current Price: ~$96.30
All-Time High: $152.89
Key Breakdown Levels:
🔵 Pullback Zone: $134.29 — Broken & Completed
🟠 Neckline Support: $90.69
🎯 Major Fibonacci Target: $66.25 (61.8% retracement)
💀 Extreme Support Zone: $10.81 (not likely unless disaster strikes, but chart says what it says...)
🔎 What’s Really Happening:
Bull run started October 2022 and went parabolic into late 2024
Price attempted to consolidate above $130–140 (pullback zone) but failed to hold
Bearish momentum confirmed as we’ve broken through key zones
We’re now headed straight toward the $90s neckline, with $66.25 as a Fibonacci target if trend continues
⚠️ Why This Matters:
This isn’t fear — it’s structure. Nvidia doesn’t have to collapse to zero, but even a healthy correction to $66 would be a 30%+ drawdown from current levels.
That would:
✅ Flush out weak hands
✅ Offer long-term buyers a better setup
✅ Rebalance the overextended rally from 2023–2024
👀 What to Watch:
Retest of $90.69 neckline
Reaction at the 61.8% retracement
Volume spikes on weekly red candles
If bulls don’t step in soon, this is just the beginning of the cooldown
📌 This is not financial advice — just chart surgery.
🔖 Hashtags:
#NVIDIA #NVDA #StockMarketCorrection #BearishStructure #TechStocks #TradingViewCharts #MarketMomentum #PriceAction #FibonacciAnalysis
Head & Shoulders Pattern + 0.786 Fib + Gap WIndowThe measured move off the Head & Shoulders pattern presents a measured move target of $73 if price continues to fall on NVDA. The 0.786 Fib 0.786 retrace had a perfect touch on Friday. Expect a 11% bounce from the 0.786 to the gap fill above. Retrace target = 0.618 Fib. This would establish another Lower High. Trend still presents with downward momentum. Then, expect the next move down towards $75.04
NVDA Flash Crashed! Will $90 Hold or More Blood Ahead?The market took a violent turn after Trump’s tariff bombshell, and high-flyers like NVDA are now in a fragile freefall. Is this a dead-cat bounce or a rare buying opportunity?
📉 Technical Breakdown (1H Smart Money Concepts)
* Bearish structure confirmed via BOS at $103 and $95.
* Trading inside a well-defined downward channel—respecting trendlines.
* Currently in a consolidation box near $92, inside potential demand.
🔑 Key Levels:
* Support: $90 (must hold) → below that, $87 and $85.
* Resistance: $95.60 (highest negative NETGEX), then $102–$104 (gap fill).
* MACD & Stoch RSI showing early signs of reversal—but no confirmation yet.
🧲 Options Sentiment via GEX (1H)
* Highest Negative NETGEX at $95.60 → massive short interest.
* PUT Wall: $90 (crucial support), next level at $85.
* CALL Wall: $108–$110 = strong rejection zone this week.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 65.2 | IVx avg: 92.9 → volatility priced in.
* Calls%: Only 8.7% bullish participation → extremely bearish positioning.
* GEX color: 🔴🔴🔵 = bearish zone, but potential for volatility-based reversal.
🧠 Scenarios to Watch
🔻 Bearish Trade Setup:
* Short rejection from $95–$96
* Target: $90 → $87
* Stop: $98
🔼 Bullish Scalp Idea:
* Long on confirmed reclaim of $95.60
* Target: $102–$104 (gap-fill)
* Stop: $92.50
🧳 Investor Perspective
We’re entering accumulation zones. Start building long positions below $90 in steps. Major long-term support lies between $85 and $80. Use time-based entries, not emotion.
📌 NVDA Takeaway:
* Market sentiment is fear-driven, but AI fundamentals are still intact.
* $95 = battlefield. $90 = line in the sand.
* Stay nimble. Be patient. Watch volume and flow.
🔔 Follow for daily TA with SMC + GEX setups
💬 Drop a comment: Bullish or Bearish NVDA this week?
❗Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This post is for educational purposes only. Do your own research and manage your risk.
🧵 Hashtags:
#NVDA #NVIDIA #OptionsFlow #GammaExposure #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #GEX #TradingView #StockMarketCrash #TariffNews #InvestorMindset #BearMarketBounce