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2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow. Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000. Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish. dax comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again. Invalidation is below 18250. bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350. Invalidation is above 18440. short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
GER40: The structure pull-back strategy in actionGER40: The structure pull-back strategy in action From our previous analysis the price tested the broken structure near 18370 as expected by offering in this way a selling opportunity. The structure pull-back strategy is used after a broken structure. It allows you to join the market at a specific moment following the breakout direction. 📺You may watch the video for further details📺 Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Previous analysis:
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by KlejdiCuni
2
GER40 may test 18300 before moving lower againGER40 may test 18300 before moving lower again From our previous analysis, GER40 decreased after a larger transformation than expected. These days it is possible that GER40 may rise up to the structure area located near18300 before resuming the decline again. This is what GER40 is showing with the current data. The first and strongest support/target area is found near 18K. 📺You may watch the video for further details📺 Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by KlejdiCuni
22
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon. Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold. Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session. dax comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it. Invalidation is below 18300. bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally. Invalidation is above 18540. short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Weekly technical analysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price increasing to 18,256, now below the VWAP of 18,342. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,901 and 18,783, respectively. The RSI has increased to 46, indicating a moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report. UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price increasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,275. Support has adjusted to 8,117, while resistance has increased to 8,280. The RSI has increased to 54, reflecting a strengthening in momentum compared to the previous report. Wall Street has made significant upside progress in the past 3 months - moving into a bullish consolidation phase, with the price recently increasing to 39,247, now above the VWAP of 38,755. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,340 and 39,170, respectively. The RSI has increased to 60, signalling a rise in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude has transitioned into a bullish trend and continues in a corrective phase, with the price increasing to 84.62, now above the VWAP of 81.79. Support has adjusted lower to 76.84, while resistance has increased to 84.62. The RSI has increased to 60, indicating a strengthening of bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Gold remains in a bullish trend trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently increasing to 2,330, now around the previous VWAP of 2,329. Support has adjusted higher to 2,284, while resistance has decreased to 2,369. The RSI has increased to 49, indicating a moderation of bearish momentum compared to the previous report. EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently increasing to 1.0716, now below the VWAP of 1.0773 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0630, while resistance has increased to 1.0916. The RSI has increased to 42, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure compared to the previous report. GBP/USD remains in a neutral trend in a consolidation phase, with the price slightly increasing to 1.2662, now around the VWAP of 1.2722. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2621, and resistance has decreased to 1.2824. The RSI has increased to 44, indicating a moderation of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - having overcome the late April peak - and has just re-entered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 159.74, now above the previous VWAP of 157.33. Support has adjusted higher to 154.68, while resistance has increased to 159.80. The RSI has increased to 72, reflecting a strong increase in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
How Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect Influence Prices█ Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices In the research paper "Prospect Theory, the Disposition Effect, and Asset Prices," authors Yan Li and Liyan Yang delve into the implications of prospect theory on asset pricing and trading volume through the lens of the disposition effect. The disposition effect, a tendency to sell assets that have increased in value while holding onto assets that have declined, is a well-documented behavioral bias among investors. Results: The study finds that diminishing sensitivity predicts a disposition effect, price momentum, reduced return volatility, and a positive return-volume correlation. Conversely, loss aversion generally predicts opposite outcomes. █ Background and Theory ⚪ Agency theory examines the relationship between principals (owners) and agents (managers), focusing on aligning their interests through contracts and incentives. ⚪ Prospect theory , introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), is a behavioral model that describes how people make decisions involving risk and uncertainty. Unlike traditional utility theory, prospect theory suggests that people value gains and losses differently, leading to risk-averse behavior for gains and risk-seeking behavior for losses. Explanation of Risk Aversion and Loss Aversion Risk aversion is the tendency to prefer certainty over a gamble with a higher or equal expected value. In contrast, loss aversion implies that losses loom larger than gains, making individuals more sensitive to potential losses than to equivalent gains. This phenomenon is captured by the S-shaped value function in prospect theory, which is concave for gains and convex for losses. █ Methodology The research uses a comprehensive model to understand how psychological factors like fear of losses and changing sensitivity to gains and losses affect trading and market behavior. This model looks at both diminishing sensitivity (caring less about bigger changes) and loss aversion (fear of losing money) together. The study's data comes from traders and managers at four big investment banks, including people with different levels of experience and jobs. This gives a broad view of how trading behavior works at these banks. █ Findings Disposition Effect What's Happening: Investors tend to sell stocks that have gone up in value and hold onto stocks that have gone down. Why: Because they are highly sensitive to gains but less sensitive to losses. Evidence: The study shows that people are about 15% more likely to sell stocks that have gone up than those that have gone down. Price Momentum What's Happening: Because of the disposition effect, stock prices keep moving in the same direction for a while before correcting. Why: Investors sell winning stocks quickly and hold onto losing ones, so prices don’t adjust immediately to new information. Evidence: Stocks that performed well continue to do better than those that performed poorly, by about 1% per month over six months to a year. Higher Equity Premium What's Happening: Investors demand higher returns for holding riskier stocks due to fear of losses. Why: Loss aversion makes them want more return to compensate for the risk. Evidence: Historically, stocks have returned about 6% more per year than risk-free assets, which is known as the equity premium puzzle. █ Practical Implications for Retail Traders Retail traders can derive several practical applications from these findings to improve their trading strategies: Risk Management: Understanding that loss aversion may lead to holding losing stocks longer, traders should implement strict stop-loss policies to mitigate this bias. Profit-Taking Strategies: Recognizing the reversed disposition effect, traders should establish clear profit-taking rules to avoid prematurely selling winning stocks. Market Volatility Awareness: Being aware that market volatility can exacerbate loss aversion effects, traders should seek higher returns to compensate for perceived risks. █ Applying Knowledge from the Study Retail traders can apply the knowledge from this study in several effective ways: Implementing Stop-Loss Orders: Setting automatic stop-loss orders helps circumvent the emotional impact of loss aversion, ensuring losses are capped at predetermined levels. Regular Review of Holdings: Periodic reassessment of stock holdings can help overcome the inertia caused by loss aversion, enabling more rational decision-making. Diversification: Diversifying the portfolio can mitigate the impact of loss aversion on individual stock performance, reducing overall portfolio risk. Education on Cognitive Biases: Educating themselves about cognitive biases like loss aversion and the disposition effect can help traders recognize and counteract these biases in their trading behavior. █ Reference Li, Y., & Yang, L. (2013). Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(3), 715-739. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.11.002 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by Zeiierman
Bearish drop?DAX40 is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 18,275.79 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 18,386.59 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 17,931.01 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GShort
by VantageMarkets
Could this be a reversal ? Us30: Us30 seemed to have a good rally and took highs from its previous week and has seemed to stall there. As the week has close bullish I will be looking to this new week to continue bullish or atleast take the highs off the week prior to it. Ger40: Germany has a weaker rally but broke higher timeframe structures after its previous weeks lows were taken. I will like to see if this can hold as a strong break of structure or just a take of liquidity (ressitance). The week also close bullish and I will expect the new week to take prior weeks highs.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by S0202Trades
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls already had 2 pushes up in this pullback and they want a third one to around 18600. Their first target is a 1h close above the daily ema 18430. Invalidation is below 18260. bear case: I do think bears last chance here at the daily ema or they risk another bull leg to 18600. I think the odds are 50/50 for either side on Monday/Tuesday. Bears see this as a higher pullback in the new steeper bear trend that started 2023-06-13 with the two big bear bars. If they fail, market will spend more time in the range 18000-18600. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18460. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.” → Last Sunday we traded 18016 and now we are at 18367. High of the week was 18448 so that outlook was as good as it gets. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None but will look for weakness on Monday/Tuesday for another big leg down. Sp500 and Nasdaq have to also be weak for that. Chart update: No bigger updates on my chart. Green two legged correction (ABC) was spot on and is still valid.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds