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DE40 trade ideas

#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxtl;dr dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a daily close below 20000. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: Since the market did not go down even the slightest, we can not hold any other thoughts than bullish ones. I won’t do anything other than small scalps on this though. On my chart I have marked the most extreme cases to either direction for the next 3 weeks. I give the bearish one a chance of at max 30% while the bulls are heavily favored to either move higher or at least sideways only. I can’t really imagine reaching 21500+ but that’s the biggest measured move I have calculated. I do think 21k and then sideways is the most reasonable outlook. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls send a strong message, closing Opex above 20000, so they remain in full control and 21000 has become a possibility for the next 3 weeks. We are still trading near at least 2 upper bull trend lines but since market is not showing big reactions to the downside, we can only expect higher prices. A daily close above 20500 brings 21000 in play. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: The pullback did not manifest at all and even if bears get this down to 20000 next week, I think we find way more buyers then sellers at that price. Bears really have no arguments at all on their side, besides the upper trend lines which are above us but at this point, I doubt they will be much resistance going into the next 3 weeks. Only thing that would make me more neutral would be a really strong bear bar closing below 20000 tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to do that, we could test down to my C target from last week, which is the breakout price around 19670. For now, I won’t look for shorts unless we see a huge volume increase on strong follow through-selling. Invalidation is above 20500. outlook last week: short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. → Last Sunday we traded 20384 and now we are at 20405. Perfect outlook, given I was neutral until bears would come around. They did not and market went nowhere on the week. short term: Given that we are in the most bullish season of the year and bears could not even get the market to drop into Opex, I can not hold any bearish wishful thought anymore and I will only look for small long scalps over the next 3 weeks. Daily close below 20000 would make me reevaluate. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Added potential measured move higher.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
DAX and SPX - brother & sister How to read the chart? In the historical point of view, the ratio between the DAX und S&P 500 is swinging in significant boundaries. This boundaries are signed in the Chart with red dashed lines above or below a center line (average). What you also can see, is the developement of DAX and S&P500 in EUR resp. USD with separate scales. Where is the beef? The extremes of these ratios show very reliable extremes of the DAX and S&P. And it doesn‘t matter, wether the extremes in DAX are significant lows OR significant highs. Last monthes: Because the last relativ low below the red dashed line was a relative Low in DAX and SPX, the actual low below the red dashed line must be the indicator for a relativ High in the DAX and SPX. So: for sure, big direction is ahead, even DAX and SPX can gain another 5-8%. Dan, 11th of december.
XETR:DAXShort
by Flyerdan
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
09.12.24This week, markets will focus on U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report could shape Federal Reserve rate decisions ahead of their final 2024 meeting, with inflation concerns heightened by strong jobs data and tariff risks. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to deliver its fourth rate cut of the year on Thursday, amid weak business activity, political instability in Europe, and a weaker euro. Investors will also monitor the resilience of the ongoing stock market rally, as record-high indices face potential pressure from key economic data. US30: Price took lows at 44712.97 then price reversed sweeping Friday highs 45102.95 before trading lower towards 44606.01 price still traded within the previous weeks range. Already this week price has pushed past my first target of 44604.60. I still see price pushing lower towards lows are 44463.09 and 43521.40 GER40: After price broke Octobers highs of 19679.3 price continued to rally higher toward my goal of 20550. Germany as the biggest economy in the Eurozone and major export driven economy, many factors have supported the GER40
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by S0202Trades
Dax view and targets!PEPPERSTONE:GER40 Hi guys, ** I have 4 TPs and feel free in taking the level you wish of them. ** The index jumped up due to a massive bullish push and I see other moves to the upside. ** TPs and SL are on chart above. ** I believe too that the retrace to up will be happening from current price 20210 or from 20200 ** There is a little chance too that it could go down to the purple trend line down to jump from but I personally do not think so ** The time frame I used is 3h frame. Good luck all)) My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by moustafa_marei
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 1H Long Setup: Entering at 0.5 FVG Level I'm eyeing a long position on the GER40 (DAX) based on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown of my trade setup: 🔹 Entry Point: - Entering at the 0.5 level of the hourly Fair Value Gap (FVG). 🔹 Risk Management: - Risk: 1% of the trading account. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2. - Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the 1H Kijun-sen line to account for potential volatility. 🔹 Trade Idea: - Expecting a retracement to the FVG before resuming the upward trend. - Aware that price action might slice through our SL, but willing to see how it unfolds. 📊 Technical Analysis: - Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, indicating a bullish trend. Placing the SL below the 1H Kijun-sen provides a safety net against sudden dips. - FVG Levels: Fair Value Gaps often act as magnets for price retracements. The 0.5 level is a strategic entry point to capitalize on the potential bounce. 🌐 Macro Factors Supporting the Trade: - Economic Resilience: Recent data shows that the German economy is demonstrating resilience amid global uncertainties, boosting investor confidence. - ECB Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank's accommodative stance continues to support liquidity in the markets, which is positive for equities. - Political Developments: Speculation around leadership changes, such as discussions about President Macron's position, might lead to increased investor optimism in European markets. - Global Market Sentiment: A general shift towards risk-on sentiment globally can propel the GER40 higher. 📝 Note: Trading always carries risk. While the setup aligns with both technical and macroeconomic factors, unforeseen events can impact the outcome. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategy as needed. Let's monitor this trade and see how it plays out. Feel free to share your thoughts or any insights you might have!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
DAX, 20K or 18473, both scenario possibleI´m expecting a major breakout towards 20K or a test of 18473 level. There is a volatility squeeze clearly visible on 1D chart. Personally I think that the first move will be a false one and the market will move the opposite direction, so be careful with the entry and do not FOMO. Try to trade the retests combined with CHOC, BOD on lower TF. If-when entry conditions for long or short trade are met, I will try to update this idea. Wish you good luck.
XETR:DAX
by Rendon1