past performance is not garantee of future results :-)candle formation identical to jan 2015 -> excess above bollinger was 25% so target is Dax 22600
Good luck to those fading before confirmation
DE40 trade ideas
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Short Position (Discretionary)
Rationale :
- Overextension: The GER40 index appears significantly overextended without substantial fundamental support.
- Rising German Bond Yields: An increase in German government bond yields suggests a shift towards higher borrowing costs, potentially impacting equity valuations.
- MACD Divergence: A notable divergence between the MACD indicator and price action indicates a weakening bullish momentum, often preceding a trend reversal.
- CVD Divergence: Divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta points to a disparity between buying and selling pressures, signaling a potential downturn.
Trade Details :
- Position: Short GER40 via market order
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
Note: This trade is discretionary and anticipates a sharp correction at market open. Despite the lack of a formal signal, the confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors supports this decision.
Short Opportunity DAXThere is opportnity to short DAX based on bearish divergence & completion of ABCD pattern. We can place buy stop order at the breakout of recent HL as inducated in chart
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Sell your GER40. Short long-term setup.The GER40 index is currently in a critical phase, with a key sell zone identified between 20,150 and 20,200. Traders looking to short this area could have a favorable long-term setup, with a target price of around 19,000 by January 2025. If the index breaks below this level, it may signal further weakness, paving the way for a larger bearish trend.
Looking further ahead, by March 2025, if GER40 breaks the 18,900 curvature, it will trigger a major shorting opportunity. This could open up the path for a deeper decline, with a potential target of 16,300 by November-December 2025, as the index could enter a prolonged downtrend.
However, staying above the 19,000 area is critical. If GER40 maintains support above this zone, it could form a bullish cycle, with a potential turnaround in early 2026. A break higher in January 2026 could signal the start of a smaller bullish trend, offering an opportunity for recovery after a period of extended weakness.
Overall, the outlook for GER40 is shaped by the movement around 20,150-20,200. The direction it takes from this key level will dictate whether the index enters a bearish phase or potentially sets the stage for a long-term recovery.
Possible correction and then upward continuationThe Dax was in a consolidation phase which turned out to be a bullish flag because price managed to break out and stabilise above this correction structure. As the indice is developing, price may correct a bit tageting the region between the 19600 and 19500. However, if price action fails to drop and manages to stabilise above the 19900's into 20k, the German benchmark will continue up.
Mon 2024 12 02 Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
** 09:30 VOLD -1.2, AD -1.2, Senti +34, Agio St +0.04, Lg +0.04, - Short
** 09:45 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
Stats Week:
** Fri US NFP 14:30:,
** Mon Morning rule - pending,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec.
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
* Senti +34,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as trend is up
DE40 (German Index) – Update on Yesterday’s ProjectionDE40 (German Index) – Update on Yesterday’s Projection
As projected in yesterday’s analysis, DE40 has successfully broken to the upside, confirming the bullish momentum. Now, the key focus should be on waiting for the price to retest the critical zone at 19,675.
Potential Trade Opportunity:
If the price pulls back to 19,675, this could present a solid buy trade opportunity for two main reasons:
Retest of Support Zone: The 19,675 level, previously a resistance, could act as a strong support after a retest.
Shift in Market Structure: The overall change in character confirms the bullish trend, further supporting the case for a long trade.
Important Note:
Avoid taking a short trade just because you expect the price to pull back. The timing of the pullback is uncertain, and entering a short trade without confirmation could lead to unnecessary losses. It’s better to stay patient and wait for a proper setup.
Final Thoughts:
Focus on confirmation at 19,675 for a potential long position, and avoid speculative shorts in the current bullish environment.
If this update helps, don’t forget to like and comment for more insights like this!
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
Analysis
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Germany 40 has entered a new impulsive phase of its bullish trend, trading at 19,608, now comfortably above the VWAP (20) level of 19,197. Support is at 18,813, with resistance at 19,602. The RSI is at 60, indicating more bullish momentum and suggesting potential for a resumption of the uptrend.
The UK 100 index looks more bullish within its longstanding neutral trend, trading at 8,287, above the VWAP (20) of 8,150. Support is positioned at 7,945, with resistance at 8,355. An RSI of 62 reflects more bullish momentum with a bullish bias.
Wall Street remains bullish and is in an impulsive phase, trading at record highs of 44,876, comfortably above the VWAP (20) of 44,012. Support is at 42,824, while resistance is positioned at 45,199. The RSI at 70 signals strong bullish momentum in overbought territory in line with the prevailing bullish environment.
Brent Crude is turning more bearish within its sideways trend eyeing a possible breakdown of the 7000 level, now trading at 7242, just below the VWAP (20) of 7250. Support is at 7050, with resistance at 7477. The RSI is below the 50-line at 46 momentum, consistent with the range-bound conditions but slightly more bearish.
Gold has flipped into a more neutral consolidation phase, trading at 2,635, near the VWAP (20) of 2,630. Support is positioned at 2,543, with resistance at 2,721. The RSI at 46 indicates lackluster momentum, suggesting continued consolidation within a new range beneath record highs.
EUR/USD remains distinctly bearish but has adjusted into a correction phase, trading at 1.0516, just below the VWAP (20) of 1.0552. Support is at 1.0409, with resistance at 1.0694. The RSI at 40 signals less bearish momentum than last week.
GBP/USD remains bearish but (like EUR) is now in a correction phase, trading at 1.2706, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 1.2677. Support is at 1.2481, with resistance at 1.2874. The RSI at 47 reflects much less bearish momentum, implying a pause in the downtrend.
USD/JPY has seen a steep correction of its former bullish trend and looks to have topped for the time being, trading at 150.23, below the VWAP (20) of 153.48. Support is near current levels at 149.52, with resistance at 157.44. The RSI at 38 reflects new bearish momentum.
DAX - time for another SHORTTeam, earlier we short DAX got more than 70 points
we are now RESHORT at 19715-20 with STOP LOSS at 19745-50
target 1 at 19672-65
target 2 at 19632-45
target 3 at 19312-19596
NOTE: Once the price drop below 19690, bring STOP LOSS TO BE.
GER30 Eyes 20,127: Bullish or Bearish Ahead?Hello,
FX:GER30 is showing bullish momentum, with potential upside toward the 20,127.027 level. However, from that point, a bearish reversal could emerge. If the 20,127.027 resistance level instead holds as support, further upside could be possible.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
DAX/GER - TIME FOR A SHORTTeam, last week we were lucky to get out from the DAX with a profit
then, later they day, it pumps back
DAX either visit old high and retests,
SHORT DAX at current price 19646-50, STOP LOSS AT 19487,
Target 1 at 19548-62
target 2 at 19465-76
Target 3 at 19332-399
NOTE: once the price drop below 19600, bring stop loss to BE to protect the trade
we are looking at 3R-8R on this.
Few like European equity, but they should - GER40 to new highs Few like investing in Europe at present, and while France remains constrained by political risk, the German equity index (GER40) is doing everything right from a technical and price action perspective, and positioning for further upside seems the play.
Having held the 19k support level throughout November, the bulls have built a solid platform to progress, taking the index through downtrend resistance & backed by solid range expansion and the index closing on weekly highs.
The ATHs are now being tested, subsequently, a closing break through 19.679 would encourage momentum accounts to chase the upside as we roll into the ECB meeting (12 Dec) and year-end.
A daily close below the 5-day EMA would be a signal to turn cautious, flipping to outright shorts on a closing break of 19k. But for now, long and strong seems the higher probability position.
Good luck to all.
GER30We looking for selling opportunities as the market is respecting the ceiling zone which is the resistance resulting in sells to the downside| 1H TIMEFRAME
DE40 (German Index) – 1-Day Time Frame AnalysisDE40 (German Index) – 1-Day Time Frame Analysis
The price of DE40 is nearing its all-time high at 19,677, and we’ve seen strong bullish momentum over the past several weeks. Based on this trend, there’s a good chance the price may continue to rise.
Two Scenarios to Watch:
Possible Reversal:
While the bullish trend is dominant, there’s a possibility of a short-term reversal near this key resistance. To capitalize on this, monitor the 4-hour time frame for confirmation. Look for a clear red candle before considering a short position.
Break and Retest for a Long Position:
If the price breaks through the critical level of 19,671, avoid entering a long position immediately. Instead, wait for the price to reach higher levels and then pull back to retest 19,671 as a new support zone. Once this level holds and there’s confirmation (e.g., bullish candlesticks), consider taking a long position.
Final Thoughts:
The odds favor continued bullish momentum, but patience and proper confirmation are key to avoiding false entries.
If this analysis helped you, don’t forget to like and comment. Your feedback motivates me to keep sharing insights like this!
DAX // expansion phaseThe market is in long expansion phase, so bears may burn their hands, however, the price is at the daily target fibo 100, and there is a nice space for a H4/H1 correction.
I wait for a a countertrend break on H4 or below to go with the long trend.
What's your take? Buy or sell?
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Max bullish. Clear break above and dax printed 19600 again. New ath next week is likely just a matter of when. Targets above are 20000, That’s it. For bears it’s anything below 19130 but that is far away and very low probability. If November closes above 19600, I think 20k is almost a given. After that I will not care about bullish targets any more until we corrected at least 30%. Does not mean I won’t continue scalping it both ways.
Quote from last week:
comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025.
comment : Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday.
current market cycle: trading range but if we make higher highs, we are obviously in a continuation of the bull trend.
key levels: 19100 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want 20000. Clear as day, as is the breakout. My chart is clear and my invalidation levels are too.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19100.
bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. Did not change that sentence since past Sunday. Bears will dominate 2025 but now is not the time to be early as a bear.
Invalidation is above 20100.
outlook last week:
short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19322 and now we are at 19626. 300 points on the week, hope you made some.
short term : Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted bull trend lines and my 5-wave series is still valid.
Insights Beyond the DAXWhen observing the DAX INDEX XETR:DAX on a weekly timeframe, identifying a clear pattern is challenging. However, check out the TEC DAX XETR:TDXP , which is closely correlated. You'll notice a clear bullish flag pattern forming, and we're nearing its upper band. Once this pattern activates, expect an upward surge for both indices. The bull market is still very much alive!
DAX - TIME HAS COMEI hope you all remember yesterday, when we said only hit our price then we short.
PATIENCE is the key.
but now we are prepare to SHORT once the price is hit our limit order at 19469-18482
STOP LOSS can be set at 19525 - can extend to 19575 depend on your risk
Target 1 at 19433-28 - once it hit, take some partial and bring stop loss to BE to protect the trade
target 2 at 19389-72
target 3 at 19367-48
