DAX: Europe kicks off the week robustlyEuropean stock markets started the week little changed due to the disappointing update on China's stimulus, which generated uncertainty among investors. Although the technology and telecommunications sectors showed slight gains, luxury, leisure and travel stocks, especially those linked to the Chinese market, fell significantly. French companies LVMH and Hermes experienced declines of between 1.4% and 3.6%, reflecting concerns about the lack of clarity on the size of the Chinese stimulus package.
In the European context, expectations are focused on the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which could announce a further interest rate cut. This move is in response to weak economic indicators in the euro zone, which point to a slowing economy. Markets have already discounted a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which could have an impact on the performance of European stock markets in the short term.
Despite the uncertainty, companies in the STOXX 600 index are expected to report earnings growth of 4.6% in the third quarter, although estimates have been declining since September. Earnings season will be key in determining the future of the European market, especially in sectors such as technology and financials, which have attracted significant capital inflows.
Meanwhile, the British betting sector was hit by the possibility of a tax hike, while luxury brand Mulberry stood out with a 16% rise following an improved takeover bid.
Overall, European investors' focus is divided between international developments, such as Chinese stimulus, and local events, such as ECB decisions and the earnings season.
On the technical side DAX (Ticker AT: GER40) has evolved through the upper part of its long-range channel bouncing in the middle zone without exceeding the 161.80% area of the previous Fibonacci retracement which coincides with the all-time high of 19,501.94. It would not be difficult to see a further climb to the highs given that RSI is at 62.34% and could extend the move until the ECB announcements. The crosses of averages and bollinger bands do not seem to give a sign of narrowing but of extension of the movement of the index. Relevant for the index this week will be German retail sales, economic sentiment and general Eurozone data on inflation that may affect German exports. The control point of the bell is located in the area of 18,500 points so it would not be unusual to see a sharp correction to the bottom of the long-term channel if the rate cuts and economic sentiment do not accompany temporarily slowing the escalation.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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DE40 trade ideas
14.10.24Markets recently have been bullish, the main question is can markets continue to be bullish and will the strength on the US and Euro economy continue to strengthen after the recent rate cuts. Results from US earnings with a close eye on Netflix and retail sales are due out this week and people will look see what these results mean for the Fed officials, whist the European bank is expected to deliver a quarter point rate cut.
Us30: As we can see price has broken out of the sideways range sinc Septmeber and has now reached 42654.00 after bouncing up from 41828.59. In essence I'd like to see price continue higher for a little while longer but it is due to retrace if anything at this point.
Ger40: After bounce from an area of demand price is now pushing towards 19500.4 which it should reach some time soon possibly before Wednesday. After I will expect price to atleast retrace also.
H1 Still Green Above 200ma 1.5 Ratio Entry still Available??H1 Still Green Above 200ma 1.5 Ratio Entry still Available??
wait m15/m30 flip back to green then keep smaller TF 1.5 RR or Hold this entry 1H retesting 19500.
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax: Max bullish for 19500/19600. Bulls have all the arguments if they stay above 19200. 19000-19200 is neutral and only a daily close below 19000 could start a bear case. My base assumption is that we are in W5 of this bull trend which could lead up to 20000.
dax xetra
Quote from last week:
comment: Bearish scenario played out during the week and bears managed to reach the lower bull trend line which bulls happily bought on Friday. Right now the odds heavily favor the bulls. Market has two very good reasons why the area around 18950 is support and since we are in a bull trend and got a decent signal bar on Friday, I want to be long above 19200 for 19400 or higher.
comment : Bullish outlook was good. Bulls will likely retest ath on Monday/Tuesday and have good chances of making new ones. My targets above are 19500 and 19600 with 20000 being possible if we get blow-off top. Don’t be a bear until bears can close below 18900.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side again. My bullish wave thesis is still fitting perfectly and W5 could lead to 20000. Any close below 19200 would seriously hurt the bull case.
Invalidation is below 1920.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 19200 to start making more bulls doubt this breakout above the minor trading range which was my W4. As of now bears do not have any reasonable arguments to stop this.
Invalidation is above 19400.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 19000-19200, very bullish above 19200 and slightly bearish but more cautious below 19000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19120 and now we are at 19373. Bullish outlook above 19200 was perfect and I hope you made some.
short term: Bullish for 19500 and higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally.
Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the ABC wave up and replaced it with a 5-wave series.
Ger 40 dax sell Possibility to go down is 70% according to me , it will go to retest that trendline, buyers look weak on 4h .
You can combine with your setup if it's sell
GER30 Continues Strong Bullish Momentum!Hello,
The FX:GER30 has been performing exceptionally well, and further upward movement is anticipated. The price has adhered closely to the established pivot points, reinforcing expectations for additional bullish momentum!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
DAX: Channel Up intact. Bullish.DAX is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.639, MACD = 2020.300, ADX = 35.161) but only neutral on 4H, indicating the significant upside potential it has. Right now the price found support on the 4H MA50 and is rebounding. This suggests the the previous correction is over, the bearish wave of the two month Channel Up bottomed near the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fib. We turn buyers again on DAX, aiming for the -0.382 Fib (TP = 19,900).
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Wed 2024 10 09 - Long||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - NO
** 09:00 H3 Doji other side, - NO
** 09:30 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti +38, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Short
** 09:45 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti +20, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Short
Stats Week:
** Thu US CPI: 14:30,
** Mon Morning rule - pending,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Oct turn,
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H3
** Time:
* 03pm,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* Momentum Long,
* Senti +20!,
** Mom Width:
* 4 candles - strong,
* 6 candles - strong,
** Mom Type:
* 2nd directional - risk at 1st or last Mom turn,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as range increased possible, and against short indicators,
* VOLD AD unavailable today,
DAX H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci SupportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 19,126.47 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,000.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 19,337.11 which is a pullback resistance.
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DAX (GER40) - Structure broken, positive trend towards ATHMy scenario from yesterday was right. We have broken the structure, so I assume that we will continue to climb upwards. The price will probably go down a bit and build up liquidity before going up. The 19200 and 19100 marks are particularly important as support. From a purely technical perspective, the DAX could also fall back a lower towards 1900 without breaking the structure. Sometimes it also likes to break the structure with a spike, only to trigger the SL and then move fast upwards. So you should keep an eye on that. If it breaks 19200, it will go to 19100 relatively quickly and probably rise steeply from there. In my opinion, these levels are a good entry point for long positions with good RR.
How to Assess Market Sentiment EffectivelyAs a financial markets trader, understanding market sentiment is crucial. Here's how I guide my students to assess it effectively:
1️⃣ Embrace News Analysis: Staying abreast of economic events, geopolitical news, and central bank speeches provides insight into market sentiment shifts. You need to know what is driving the markets YOU trade. Technicals are a rear-view mirror.
2️⃣ Sentiment Indicators: I like to use sentiment indicators like the COT report, Fear & Greed Index, and VIX, which help gauge market mood, but my favorite way of checking out session sentiment at a glance is analyzing safe haven flows, equity positioning, antipodean and Chinese mood and the DXY (as long as it is correlated).
3️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Analysis: Monitoring social media platforms and sentiment analysis tools allows me to tap into the retail trading community's collective sentiment.
4️⃣ Price Analysis: Analyzing price patterns, trading volatility, supply & demand and market breadth helps identify underlying sentiment behind price movements.
5️⃣ Commitment to Data-driven Decisions: I stress the importance of basing trading decisions on data rather than emotions. Objective analysis is key to avoiding impulsive moves. I let others play the guessing game, forecasting always with a 50/50 chance of being right... I follow and ride market movements.
6️⃣ Spotting Divergence: Identifying divergences between market sentiment and price trends can signal potential reversals or continuation patterns. Establish what a deviation from baseline sentiment looks like and then be on the lookout for those clues.
7️⃣ Context Matters: Assessing sentiment within the broader market context ensures well-rounded analysis. Sentiment alone may not dictate trends so I like to also gauge the strength and momentum of sentiment to see if the time horizon matches my trade idea's scope.
Understanding market sentiment arms us with a valuable edge in forex, indices and commodities trading. Simple as that.
Expansion ArriviedThe expansion phase we have been waiting for has arrived. Now we are going to see if the left highs broken will be just left without influencing the huge FVG on the right, or if they will at some point they will be $ For now, this is massively BULLISH "Remember trend is our...?"
Rejected m30 200ma and ChoCh 1.5 Ratio Testing Week break outRejected m30 200ma and ChoCh 1.5 Ratio Testing Week break out
Back to retesting week ChoCh green 2 weeks ago
GER40 Retest: Bullish Signals AlignThe GER40 is currently retesting a significant support zone following a clear breakout. The ongoing pullback is testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, aligned with a key trend line, providing additional confluence for a bullish outlook. Furthermore, the absence of any bearish divergence strengthens the case for a potential upward move.
DAX Bottom FormingThe DAX exceeded the 19000 mark yesterday and initially stabilised above it. In my opinion, the last low was only undercut in order to close the gap from 26 September. This clears the way upwards again. We are now seeing a bottom forming here and I suspect the price will test the 19000 level once again. By the end of the week, however, it should move upwards again towards a new all-time high. However, there remains a small chance of a continuing downward trend if the 19000 level is broken. Therefore, only work with a small SL if this point is used as a long entry.
Tue 2024 10 08 - Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
** 09:00 H3 Doji other side, - NO/Long/Short
** 09:30 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
** 09:45 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
** 16:15 VOLD ???, AD ???, Senti ???, Agio St ???, Lg ???, - Range/Long/Short
Stats Week:
** US CPI: 14:30 - pending,
** Mon Morning rule - pending,
** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change - pending,
Stats Month:
** Oct turn,
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Gap close,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as against D1 trend,
BUYINGnot really good at this pair buy Am buying though it already started going up, risky but the reward is large, according to my analysis, so enter this at your own risk.
GER40Markets seem to be in a situation where the risk of continued buying is becoming the riskier option. I'm seeing failed rallies to the high side throughout some of the European stock indices such as Germany and France. Currently France looks like the weakest. I'm in a German position but I'm considering also entering a short on France. My stop loss would be around 7620 which protects the position from the last four daily highs. I'll be observing price action around the daily highs and lows of Germany as I feel like a small bounce coming off a good night in the United states could carry us through into the stop loss territory. Asian markets dumped heavily today and Europe is not off to a great start. I'm trying to find some good news or reasons to buy the United States in case I am missing something. Markets are dropping as I am writing this so I'll take a pause and pick the country that best suits a short position. I'm being cautious that holding multiple short positions on country stock indices increases my overall risk.
It takes at least two days on average for price to drop the 1.5% that I would like to see on this trade. The risk to reward is only 1 / 3 but I would like to reach the number 3 sooner by adding to the position somewhere along the way.
