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JAP225 trade ideas

Strong JPY, Weak Nikkei. Trading Plans Post FallAs the JPY has gained value, on propping up rumours via Japan Authorities, we have seen a drop in the Nikkei. The pro growth rates set by the BOJ have allowed the Japanese Nikkei to grow to higher highs continually, inline with the positive market sentiment spurred on by a better global economic outlook and a soft landing. A retracement, however, would reflect some of the economic woes induced by low rates. Anything that turns this around will likely take us back to highs. Conversely, a continuation of current sentiment will bring us lower. Any longs, therefore, must be tiny, if any. Save them till later.
SPREADEX:NIKKEI
by WillSebastian
2
The Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen): → The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel); → The price may continue to rise along the median line. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has increased by more than 6%, reaching a yearly high on 10th July above 42,500 points. The price particularly surged on 9-10 July, breaking resistance at 41,160 (formed from the previous peak at the end of March). However, the bears made a strong comeback afterwards, pushing the price back to the 41,160 level. Thus: → Completely offsetting the gains from 9-10 July; → Forming a bearish engulfing pattern spanning 4 candles; → Prompting consideration that the breakout above 41,160 was false (a trap for bulls). According to Reuters, bearish drivers included technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron, which saw a more than 6% decline in one day, following sell-offs in US technology stocks (as reported on 12th July). Sentiment in the Japanese stock market is also influenced by risks of interventions by the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides further insights: → The price is still in the upper half of a significant ascending channel (shown by the blue channel), originating in 2023; → There is no conclusive evidence yet that the price is consolidating below the 41,160 level. However, it's possible that the bears could break below the median of the blue channel and consolidate below 41,160. In that case, the bearish reversal from last week could become a key point in constructing an important descending channel for the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen), whose contours are already emerging (shown in red). Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, this suggests a potential break of the lower boundary of the blue channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
2
JAPAN TRADE: NIKKEI225 & TOPIX BANK INDEXThe FX:JPN225 index is currently offering a modest discount following a nearly 10% return to investors in February, raising the question of its investability. A key metric to watch is the Topix Bank Index TSE:TOPIXB , which gauges the health of the financial sector. Despite today's slight decline of 0.50% in the FX:JPN225 , Japanese banks continue to perform notably well. Inflation rates are anticipated to decrease from 2.6% to 2.1% tomorrow (Tuesday), and consumer confidence is expected to see a minor improvement from 38 to 38.2 by the end of the week (Friday). Given the positive internal indicators and the limited number of significant events on the calendar for this week, my outlook remains optimistic. I am waiting for a further pullback in the FX:JPN225 to establish a level of support from which I can start to build on any additional declines.
TVC:NI225Long
by moneymagnateash
Nikkei-Watching levelsTradingview Ideas: Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Will watch levels 41,000 which is about now at 40500 area. bias still on upside but not till i see some change it this near term down move..shall monitor... Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
J
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
NIKKEI RISKY LONG| ✅NIKKEI is the main japanese Stock Index and is has been Following the Yen in the opposite Direction. The weaker the Yen The stronger the Index, so now Following a sharp correction on The Yen we are seeing a correction On Nikkei as well, but we are Bullish biased mid-terma and As the index is about to retest The significant horizontal support Level of 41,000 we will be Expecting a local bullish rebound LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
TVC:NI225Long
by ProSignalsFx
1
NIKKEI 225 (BANKSTER CALL)I'm loving the way this chart is looking. But I also love the fundamentals here. US Govt. is working overtime to satisfy our allies here in South East Asia, and in the Norther 'Emerging Markets' Zone (S.Korea). However, with all that's going in the South China Sea, Japan has stepped as an ally to help us buffer some of the regions tensions. Nikkei 225 contains some of the worlds hardest hitting corporate players. So a purchase from Warren Buffett isn't a 'scratch your back, i'll scratch yours until...' but a sizable investment into the future of one of the worlds most productive societies. With this being said, I decided to place 25% of my portfolio into this play, with a hedge nearby in the event we retest levels seen on the Monthly chart. Going forward, we will build out plays that will cover the risk until we are risk neutral. Then I will expose our portfolio some more to this play. Walking the streets Fukuoka just a few years ago, during what was seen as tough economic times, it was hard to tell with how packed the shopping malls in the prefecture were. *A consumer based economy with tons of potential. Now, based in Bangkok, I will add the Chinese are controlling the regions most valuable retail assets with their 'unlimited' purchasing power, but the Japanese are strategically in lock-step in the more quieter ways and in economies were the value of their assets can see a larger blast north from foreign investment. This is not investment advice. I'm not responsible for any decisions that you make after reviewing this information. Trade Responsibly. The American Bankster
TVC:NI225Long
by moneymagnateash
NIKKEI SHORT 41,000 SL & TP ON CHARTTaking short position on NIKKEI 1% risk 1:5r Reason for trade is we may see the JPY basket start to bottom out and retrace currently in extremely oversold and undervalued conditions. JPY pairs looking like they could recover a lot I see the NIKKEI as overvalued because of the yen bleeding so much this year its a false evaluation of the price, has been drawn up artificially off the back of yen losses which may well be getting plugged now. 41,000-41,1000 is a great area for shorts
SPREADEX:NIKKEIShort
by PGTrades
How to Trade JPY Weakness With Minimum Intervention RiskFundamentals & Sentiment JPN225: - Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%). USD: - The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode - Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS) JPY - Continuous JPY depreciation propels Japanese stocks Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Sideways Min target: Mar high/ the end of the first breakout leg after Mar high Risk: 1.19%
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by Cherry94
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak. But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225Long
by FXCM
NIKKEI 225 - Potential Bearish OpportunityThe Nikkei 225 index has demonstrated a sustained bullish trend over an extended period. However, recent developments indicate a notable divergence and the emergence of a bearish Gartley pattern, suggesting a potential shift towards a downward trajectory. Market analysis indicates that bears could exert control following the completion of the pattern at the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). This observation underscores the importance of monitoring key technical indicators and price action closely to assess the index's future direction accurately.
NShort
by AnalytixEdgeByQasim
The Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month High As we wrote on June 17th, analyzing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen): → the price formed a consolidation pattern (in the shape of a narrowing triangle); → the price formed a bullish reversal from the 38,000 points level (indicated by an arrow), suggesting potential growth and trend establishment upon pattern breakout. Since then, the price has broken out of the consolidation triangle and today exceeded the 39,800 level - marking the highest point since mid-April. Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides more information: → the price is in a significant uptrend (shown by the blue channel); → after breaking out of the consolidation triangle, the price reached the median line of the channel - implying that the bullish momentum may weaken here, but not necessarily come to an end completely. It is possible that the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) will continue to rise steadily along the median line, but fundamental factors should be considered as key drivers: Firstly, the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan, which is beneficial for the growth of Japan's export-oriented enterprises. However, the central bank's policy is increasingly criticized, especially with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing the 'red line' of 160 yen per dollar. Secondly, the influence of the US stock market. In this regard, it should be noted that: → the current rise in the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) is linked to the strong recovery of NVDA shares after three days of decline; → upcoming news on US inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index values will be published on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3 and could cause significant volatility in financial markets, potentially affecting the price of the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen). A significant resistance level is seen at the psychological level of 40,000. After the price surpassed it in March (but failed to hold above it on two attempts), it retraced by more than 9% with the formation of the aforementioned consolidation triangle. Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
1
Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line). Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month. Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
JP225 swing tradeI entered a short position on the Nikkei225 index. These are the key economic factors and how they impact this trade idea, be it positively or negatively I will give each factor a rating, if the rating is 0, then this factor does not help our position, if it is 1 and above it supports our trade. Economy 1. Inflation(CPI) We have seen a cooldown in inflation to 2.5% which is decent inflation that supports stocks, therefore it supports indexes. For this trade, it is a negative factor, because we want to short the Nikkei. So this factor gets a 0/1 2. Interest rates The latest hike in interest rates is a negative factor for the Nikkei, this year the BOJ is expected to hike rates more, therefore not helping the index. I'm giving this a rating of 1/1 3. GDP The past 6 GDP filings have been bad for Japan(except for the one in March we got 0.1%) so it is good for our trade idea, I'm giving it a 1/1 4. PMI Both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs show an expansion in Japan's economy, therefore being bad for my position. I'm giving this a 0/2(there are 2 possible points because I count Manufacturing and Services as two separate factors). 5. Retail sales have shown us a decrease starting from April 2023 when we were at 7.20%. Now we are at 2.4% with the latest release beating the forecast significantly, therefore it gets a 1/2 6. Unemployment recently has shown an increase, starting from Jan. 2024 when we were at 2.4%, to now at 2.6%. Overall we have a steady, range-bound unemployment, in the range of: 2.5%<->2.7%. I'm giving this a 1/2 rating because unemployment has increased, but not drastically. Sentiment 1. Seasonality. Over 10 years the expected result of this month is -1.4% and next month is expected to be -0.8%. The five-year average suggests an even bigger downward momentum. It is expected by both the 5-year and 10-year averages to see a downward move for the rest of the year with a few slightly positive months. Therefore I'm giving this a 2/2 2. Retail positioning shows us that 64% of people are positioned long, we need to take this as an opposite signal because statistically, the masses of people are wrong. Therefore it gets a 1/1 3. COT the latest filing shows us that there was a -7.81% net change in positions, which indicates that large institutions may be starting to sell, the actual long/short contracts show us that only 30.7% of institutions are short, but this is a metric that needs time to change. Also, we see a level at which short positions start to increase and long positions decrease. Therefore I'm giving this a 3/4 Technical I entered based on an "active zone" I took the entry as shown on the chart, if the index falls rapidly I will add another position, but we have to wait for that. The entry is good so it gets a 1/1 Summary Trade expected RR: 3 Total points 11/17 64% analytical expectancy. This is good as most of my positions are often 50% to 60%
FX:JPN225Short
by KristupasNa
Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First TimeNikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time According to today's Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday's low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow). One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In particular, according to Reuters, Toyota Motors' shares fell by more than 2% as the company faces difficulties due to a certification scandal. Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported that Toyota will extend the production halt for some models until the end of July. The fact that the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price is recovering after dropping below the 38,000 mark suggests a false bearish breakout below this psychological level. Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart provides more insight into market dynamics: → Since the beginning of 2024, there has been a sharp rise from point A to point B by more than 20%; → This was followed by a retracement to point C, which constituted a Fibonacci 0.500 proportion of the A→B impulse; → Then there was a rise from C to D, forming a Fibonacci 0.382 proportion of the B→C impulse. Thus, in the first half of the year, there has been a series of diminishing oscillations forming a triangle pattern, indicating a balance between demand and supply around the 38,380 axis. Today's potential bullish reversal (which is not yet fully formed) could confirm the relevance of the triangle's lower boundary and direct the price towards its axis. It is worth noting that the triangle boundaries are narrowing, and a possible imminent breakout of this graphical pattern, formed in the first half of 2024, could lead to the establishment of a noticeable trend. Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:J225
by FXOpen
1