AEX: Shell is stamping it's feet.Despite all the gloom and doom, markets showing a surprising resilience.
(Graphs are a multi timeframe approximation: "top/bottom", per day/week/month)
NED25 trade ideas
AEX : 528 pulls like a magnet Hi everyone,
After a weeklong side bump, today a breakthrough to higher levels is visible again. The open gap since 6/03/20 has an attractive effect that I think should be closed for the longer term, this is what the market is now aiming for, the MA50 has managed to stop the declines for the time being, leaving a 2nd short signal . You can also see the parallel lines in the RSI with support and resistors, this shows the strength of the market and it is too big for the time being. A ride to 528 can be done, but pay attention at the top, space is limited!
Regards ,
TT
AEX Is Inside a Rising Wedge, After Struggling at the 0.500 Fib Let's look at the Dutch AEX index. The prices seem to not have recovered as much as the american stock markets, giving us more opportunity to trade with higher percentage gains. However, I am starting this one with my analysis on an upcoming short trade.
I'm not a huge fan of this inverted fibonacci retracement, but saw it getting very popular on charts recently to model the big Corona drop. If we use this charting method, we do see the price struggled quite a bit to overcome the 0.5 fib level.
After oscillating quite a bit in this rising wedge, we are reaching the point where the price will need to make a decision soon.
A rising wedge is a bearish pattern, so I expect a bearish breakout after reaching still slightly higher. possibly around the 525 level.
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The final pullback? everything comes together...- Semi horizontal red line is from March 2009
- 50 Daily average
- Convergence
- Fib Retracements
- Declining volume
Very scary times
AEX analysisUpmarket will continue for the short run in wedge. After that I suspect market wil continue to go further down.
RSI and MACD indicators support this expectation.
Drawing all possible resistances and Supports in local areaDrawing all possible resistances and Supports in local area
AEX trade setupshort incl. support and resistance levels. entry 510-500
target 1 - eye 1
target 2 - eye 2
target 3 - eye3
Stoploss 538.5
AEX - Where support turns into resistanceJust a simple chart. Let's see if we can get higher, or else: Survive.
AEXRSI going low....
Volume indicator is going lower...
Do we see some red days this week on the AEX??
AEX: the balloon starts to tear ! Hi everyone
The time has come, a first short signal in a long time, we have had to wait a long time.
See in the graph that the MA50 (orange line) served as a support for the upward movement for a long time, has not been able to keep today. An upward trend line has also been broken, which reinforces the whole.
Initially we focus on 482 then on to 455 these are support / resistance zones, eventually my longer term target is on a retest of 390 but we are not there yet, step by step again
If there is still a small revival, the ascending earlier support line will now serve as resistance, here shorts can still be bought if one was late
resistance: MA50 / MA20
505/513/530
support zone targets: 482/455/430/390
Good luck traders!
I regularly update my ideas, so don't hesitate to follow.
I also appreciate your opinions, thanks!
Regards,
TT
AEX : (false) outbreak : look correlation RSI/MA50 !Hi everyone,
A new analysis, it is not an easy one. Last week we were in the sideways motion but this will not last. This morning there was an outbreak upwards, the disadvantage is that this happened with an open gap (price area), this can still be closed (476) this makes the outbreak difficult to predict, under 476 the outbreak is false and there can be big drop.
I want to turn to the correlation RSI / MA50: see that the tops of the RSI coincided with the resistor 482 (red arrows) on the other hand, the MA50 together with the RSI provided support (green arrows)
The outbreak can be confirmed by the breakthrough due to the falling resistance line (see blue arrow), which should now provide support! If this is possible then we have a first target at 510 and overshoot cannot be ruled out because of the previously created gap 530 that can be closed! Here's looking for a lower term top, but we're not there yet.
So for the next few hours, you should focus on the RSI!
Again, when a short position is taken into account a stop loss above 530!
short overview: - gap at 476 -> can still be closed
- MA50 / RSI should provide support
- first target 510, overshoot 530
- under 476 chance of a big drop
Regards,
TT
AEX rejected! Support at the green zoneBull (short term) when we break the 483 zone. First support at 450-455
AEX short ideaFundamental: expectation of prolonging corona virus meassures by the dutch goverment, announcement after market.
These meassures would result in lower opening of AEX on 1/4/2020?
Technical: strong resistance at the 0.382 Fibonachi retracement
This resistance is a historical support of dec 2018 (bottom of last bull cycle)
AEX : sideways 452 - 482, look for outbreak next weekHi everyone, I get many questions about what is going to happen now, it is important to know that there is now a sideways movement going on between say 482 and 452. I now have to wait for an outbreak before I take a longer term position again (because I am not a day-trader).
In the hour chart there is a double top at 482, at the bottom the MA50 (orange line) has to be broken and the RSI in bear-market range (below 50) before we can speak of a clear short signal.
If the MA50 does provide support, a new attack can take place on 482, an overshoot to 530 is then equally possible since there is still a gap open which can be closed, but we are not yet there.
When you have a short position take into account a large stop loss above 530.
So now neutral, wait for a further signal;)
Regards,
TT
AEX going down....Bounced back and kept below 20+year trend line and 340 MA(30 minutes).
Expect it to drop on Monday.
AEX still has lots of room to go downWe haven't seen the worst yet. As new numbers from authorities come out, scenario seems to be getting more and more bearish. One of the most important levels is around 385 points, which we will probably test soon. After that there is a big drop down. If we compare to previous drops it isn't strange to think we can go as low as -60%.
AEX 485-500 Short Opportunity2001:
AEX broke the 4 year positive trendline and from that moment dropped 57% in the following 105 weeks.
After breaking that trendline the price recovered until slightly above the initial break point. From there the real downward rally continued. In hindsight this point of recovery would have been an excellent short opportunity.
2008:
AEX broke the 5 year positive trendline and from that moment dropped 57% in the following 61 weeks.
After breaking that trendline the price recovered until slightly above the initial break point again (just like in 2001). From there the real downward rally continued again (just like in 2001). In hindsight this point of recovery would have been an excellent short opportunity again (just like in 2001).
2020:
AEX broke the 11 year positive trendline, a similar thing that happened in 2001 and 2008.
The price dropped sharply but is now recovering slightly. If the price recovers the next few weeks to 485-500 this would give a similar short opportunity as we have seen in 2001 and 2008.
Let me know your thoughts :)
PS: a more or less similar opportunity can be spotted when looking at S&P500 and DJ30.
