FTSE UK100:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|LONG SETUP ⭐️FTSE 100 remains green but pegged back by Next disappointment, US markets open higher
US stocks open higher but the positive US tech sentiment isn't global
FTSE 100 up 11 points at 7,471
Sunak holds back £32bn 'war chest' claim
P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking
As expected, US stocks opened slightly higher, rebounding from some of the losses they have taken over the last few days.
The Dow Jones was up 186 points, or 0.54% to 34,544, while the tech-laden Nasdaq gained 0.28%, climbing 38 points to 13,960.
S&P 500 was inched 0.55%, rising 24 points to 4,480.
The Nasdaq’s positive start has done little for the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, however, which continued to fall in afternoon trading.
The trust was down 2.80%, changing hands at 997p, offsetting some of the gains made over the last week or so.
Positive tech sentiment in the US isn’t echoed globally, with Hang Seng down 0.94% to 21,945 points, a 208 point decline.
2.19pm: One month since Russia invaded Ukraine
A month on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, stocks market globally are generally better off than just before the invasion, which shouldn’t come as a surprise according to Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at interactive investor.
Footsie has regained most of its losses, and is only 20 points behind the close on 23 February, the night before the invasion began, having fallen as low as 6,959 in the week after war broke out.
Over in America, the Dow Jones is up nearly 2.38% or roughly 2,600 points over the same period.
“If anyone doubted the resilience of stock markets, the past month has demonstrated just how quickly they are able to overcome the impact of shocking events, and this can be uncomfortable for some.”
“History proves this to be the case over the long term. Just look at stock markets over the past 100 years. World Wars, pandemics, terrorism, and financial crashes have been brushed aside. Why would massive economic sanctions and threat of nuclear war in 2022 be any different?”
1.51pm: Calls for crypto regulation
The Bank of England urged for tighter cryptocurrency regulation on worries of the potential detrimental impact it could have on global financial markets.
Its Financial Policy Committee insisted the regulators of the £1.3tn digital currency market must grow and become more coordinated.
Deputy governor Sam Woods wrote to several lenders to flag up that crypto long-term regulation would need to be significantly altered to prevent threats to worldwide economic stability.
It also said it will advise the Treasury on how best to oversee digital assets – something beyond the realms of the Financial Conduct Authority.
1.20pm: British Airways owner and Wizz Air retreat on Deutsche Bank downgrade
International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) SA, owner of British Airways, fell 3.1% on Deutsche Bank’s downgrade of its stock from a ‘buy’ recommendation to ‘hold.’
Wizz Air Holdings PLC (AIM:WIZZ), which is not FTSE 100-listed but also received the same demotion, retreated 2.6% and had its price target slashed to 2,900p from 5,450p – still a 16% premium on Thursday afternoon’s share price though.
The German-based investment bank also lowered easyJet PLC’s target to 570p from 680p, which caused a 1.1% drop in its share price.
12.47pm: FTSE remains stagnant
The FTSE 100 remained relatively flat, up 10 points to 7,469, as the Budget reaction continued to flood in and Russia opened its stock market, for limited trading, for the first time since it invaded Ukraine.
Mexican-based gold and silver miner, Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), led the risers - up 3.3% - while global investment manager M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) was close behind with a 2.7% climb.
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) and BP PLC (LSE:BP.) continued to advance, 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, following Rishi Sunak’s Wednesday announcement of a record 5p fuel duty slash to alleviate soaring prices.
Meanwhile, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines fell 3.31% to 134p, with Schroders PLC (LSE:SDR) also down about 3%, with share changing hands at 3,125p in afternoon trading.
12.16pm: US preview
US stocks look set to open higher on Thursday, rebounding from losses in recent days, though gains are likely to be capped amid ongoing worries over high oil and commodity prices and as investors look toward US weekly jobless figures and manufacturing data.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.5% on Thursday, while those for the S&P 500 added 0.6% and contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 rose 0.7%.
Among commodities, international benchmark Brent crude added 0.3% to $118.09 a barrel, while gold gained 0.4% to $1,945.30 a troy ounce.
US major averages took a breather on Wednesday as concerns over the war in Ukraine and its impact on oil prices, and economic uncertainty at home continue to undermine investor sentiment.
‘’There is little sign the pedal is coming off the accelerator for energy prices amid a fresh round of volatility that has hit markets after Russia moved to retaliate in the economic war being waged,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
In a tit-for-tat move, Moscow announced yesterday that it will only accept payment for its exports in roubles after its foreign currency reserves were frozen.
“This (Russia’s move) has sent European futures surging and the fear is that this move would deepen the energy crisis and clog agreements worth hundreds of millions of euros every day. In simple words, we are likely to see higher energy prices which means more inflation and gold traders are watching that closely,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
Economic data due out later will keep investors sidelined, Aslam added, forecasting weekly jobless claims at around 210,000 and US durable goods orders down by 0.5%.
“Investors are (also) keeping a close watch on the NATO's emergency meeting. President Joe Biden is traveling to Europe to increase pressure on Russia and provide support for a ceasefire,” he concluded.
11.45am: P&O boss may accept bonuses despite mass and immoral sacking
P&O boss Peter Hebblethwaite admitted he receives a £325,000 base salary per year and is in contention for two bonus schemes, which he was undecided on whether to accept.
When questioned on bonuses by MPs following the company’s mass sacking of 800 employees without any notice, Hebblethwaite commented "I can't tell you how far that is from my thoughts."
"I don't know the answer to that. I don't know," he added, which brought uproar on the potential of his acceptance of possible bonuses.
He also admitted that the company’s average hourly pay for new workers is £5.15 an hour, and when asked if he could survive on that, he failed to respond.
Hebblethwaite said it did not consult unions as the company knew they would not approve the sackings.
11.10am: Barratt, Berkeley and Persimmon fall as they're urged to fund cladding repair
Housebuilders Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV), Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) and Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) are all down today as one of the city’s largest investment firms call on them to fund the cladding repair.
According to Sky News, a letter from abrdn to the Footsie listed companies said it wanted them to “carefully consider providing additional financing for all affected buildings built by in the last 30 years, regardless of their height or current ownership, in order to accelerate remediation work to remove the burden on leaseholders".
Pressure from the investment company adds to comments made by Michael Gove earlier this year, who wanted the industry to pay £4bn to repair the properties across the country that required improved cladding.
A paper commissioned by PwC earlier this month, however, estimated the bill to come in at less than £1bn which boosted the property developers at the time.
The report also noted that the government and private companies would be expected to chip in, with the former to contribute because of regulatory failing that allowed the housebuilders to cut corners in the name of profits in the first place.
Barratt is down 1.12% to 530p, Berkeley is down 0.58% to 3,960p and Persimmon is down 0.31% to 2,220p.
10.38am: Shell to invest in green energy
Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) rose 1% on news that it intends to plough £25bn into UK energy over the next decade, with 75% of that on low-carbon products including hydrogen and offshore wind.
"These investments, subject to board approval, aim to propel the UK closer to net-zero and help to ensure security of supply whilst stimulating economic growth and jobs," David Bunch, Shell UK country chairperson, said.
He added that it will need “stable political discourse” and urgency from the government to accelerate the shift away from non-renewable energy sources.
This came following the company’s decision to sever ties with Russia, via its vows to stop buying the country’s oil, offload its Rosneft (LSE:ROSN) stake and end its Gazprom joint venture, following its invasion of Ukraine.
10.05am: UK sanctions 65 more elite Russian individuals and businesses
The UK foreign secretary announced a further 65 sanctions on Russian individuals and businesses, targeting strategic industries, banks and business elites.
According to a statement, the sanctions “target key industries supporting Russia’s illegal invasion, including Russian Railways and defence company Kronshtadt, the main producer of Russian drones.”
“Six more banks are targeted, including Alfa Bank whose cofounders include previously sanctioned oligarchs Mikhail Fridman, Petr Aven and German Khan. The world’s largest diamond producer Alrosa is also sanctioned.”
“Individuals sanctioned include the billionaire oil tycoon Eugene Shvidler, and Galina Danilchenko, who was installed by Russia as the ‘mayor’ of Melitopol is also sanctioned - the first time an individual has been sanctioned for collaboration with Russian forces currently in Ukraine.”
Foreign secretary Liz Truss said “All those sanctioned today will have their assets in the UK frozen which means no UK citizen or company can do business with them, and individuals subject to travel bans are also prohibited from travelling to or from the UK.”
“Today’s sanctions will bring the total global asset value of the banks the UK has sanctioned since the invasion to £500bn and the net worth of the oligarchs and family members in excess of £150bn.”
9.45am: Oil stocks lead Footsie
Footsie continue to trade healthily led by oil stocks after the crude price headed up towards US$120 barrel overnight. Results were mixed though private equity firm Bridgepoint was an early riser on its results.
Shares have been disappointing performers since its float but perked up 12% today as revenues rose by 41% and underlying profits by 72%.
The group’s main private equity funds committed €1.9bn to new investments and returned €2.9bn to its fund investors.
FTSE 100 up 21 at 7,482.
08:40:Footsie heads higher
The FTSE 100 was nudged higher in early trade on Thursday, though it was being put in the shade by the stock market in Moscow, which leapt higher after being closed for a month.
One month on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine the siege continues, with world leaders today convening for emergency summits of Nato, EU and European Council.
Moscow marked the passing of the month with the reopening of its stock market, which fell 45% on the first day of the invasion before being shutters, and was up 10% in early trade today, with a ban on short-selling and Russian brokerages also banned from allowing foreign clients sell securities.
Back in London, blue-chip shares had less support, but the Foosie was up 22 points or 0.3% to 7,483.
Top of the leaderboard were precious metals miner Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and drinks bottler Coca-Cola HBC, which has larges exposure to Russia.
Clothes retailer Next PLC (LSE:NXT) was down 3% after cutting it profits and sales forecasts for 2022/23 on the back of the war in Ukraine and slowing growth (read more).
6.32am: Slight rise expected
The FTSE 100 was being called slightly higher before trading got underway with picking over Rishi Sunak’s Budget likely to be the main focus.
Financial spread bet firms had the index up 11 points an hour before trading got underway, but that leaves a lot of time for the mood to change.
BP and Unilever going ex-dividend will also be a drag on the early movements.
The day after the Budget (read more) is often more instructive than the big headlines as economists pore over the detail, which is where the devil normally lies.
Already the Telegraph has pointed out that the chancellor is raising £33bn through an effective stealth tax on students after freezing the level at which their loan repayments begin.
This will help more than pay for the income tax cut planned for 2024 and the rise in national insurance thresholds, added the paper.
Elsewhere, US markets weakened after the hawkish tone of recent statements from Fed chair Jerome Powell concerning interest rates.
Asian markets were mixed towards the end of trading with Japan ahead but Hong Kong still overhung by the uncertainty over the Evergrande situation.
UK100 trade ideas
SELL UKX FTSE 100A-B and then C coming.
Due to higher inflation than expected,
Higher risk os escalation in Ukraine-Russia with another nations
and big overbought market in the short term
Good opportunity to load shorts
LONDON INDEX PEAKED TODAY at.786 wave B top CRASH IN WAVE CA NEW DOWN LEG TO START the london exchange has now rallied back to end wave B or X AT A PERFECT .786 I now see the WAR about to change in a very negative move to now have EUROPE IN DEEPER
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Again, this reality is true for most markets, but it's especially apparent in the forex market. Traders must stay abreast of the latest fast-moving changes in market conditions to be sure that their currency exchanges are profitable.
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The forex market is an over-the-counter market, meaning trades are not carried out on a centralised exchange, and regulatory oversight is sometimes limited. Because of this, traders may need to do a "due-diligence" investigation of their broker's reputation and trading practices before signing up for an account.
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UK100 has to clear it current level. Patience will pay offIm waiting for direction at this level; a pullback to the pivot will be a good entry point for a Long position.
UK100/FTSE100 False Channel BreakoutHad a false breakout of a channel and reversed at a support level. Now it's likely to test the highs. The new plan is to sell the high test with stops at around 7900 or slightly higher (will depend on the price action as it reaches there). The target is a return to the blue support level.
UK100 LONG scalp <3Hey everyone.
Long scalp for UK100.
wait for confirmations:
RSI
stoch
News?
Candlestick patterns
EMA's
key support/restistance <3
New strategy upgrade
Hi traders, this is my personal trading idea only. Please give an AGREE/ LIKE if you agree with my TRADING PLAN. My chaos drawing is not to predict and guess the further, it is my plan where we are on the chart and how we shall trade on what we see. My trading strategy is Price Auction - PA using Price movement only, your comments are highly welcome. Trade well & Good luck guys.
Finding Effective LeverageKnowing the link between leverage and equity is important. Now, you have to decide how much you are
willing to risk and set your trading capital accordingly.
To find effective leverage, consider two inputs: trade size and equity.
Use effective leverage of 10:1 or lower.
Only risk 10% or less of your account balance at any given time. Add the cash value of your entire exposure
to the market (all your trades), and never let that amount exceed 10 times your equity.
To calculate leverage of a single trade, divide your trade size by your account equity.
FTSE100 - UKX - WHERE TO NEXT?Where to next?
Quick trade idea! A break to either direction.
Trade Journal
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
6.5k First Target! UK100 / DAILYHere is the supplement to the scenario posted previously. We are forming a big downtrend with an ABCD and bearish flag. Creating new LL in near future.
6500 is the target.
Goodluck.
Preparing for 5k dump?? UK100 / 2HR We have formed a bearish rectangle that should follow with downside and potentially break off below the LL. Shorting from the top.
The final target for the long term is 5k. The most probable is 6500 in the near future.
Goodluck.
UK100 - A Big Test AboveIt's been a highly volatile period in the markets, with equities coming under severe pressure as a result of high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions against it that followed.
The UK100 has shown more resilience than its European peers during that time, in part as a result of the UK having fewer trade ties - particularly oil and gas - and due to the weight of commodity stocks within the index. Soaring commodity prices are naturally beneficial for those companies, which has to an extent shielded them during the declines.
Of course, they haven't been entirely immune, particularly those with direct exposure to Russia. The weakness in the pound may have also helped given how much revenue from FTSE 100 companies is generated outside of the UK.
That said, the index has still fallen into correction territory during that time and below the 200/233-day SMA band. After seeing support around 6,800 we have seen a partial reversal of those losses, buoyed by talks between Ukraine and Russia which both sides suggest are making positive progress.
It is now running into resistance in a very interesting area on the chart. The 50% Fibonacci retracement - February highs to March lows - falls around the 200/233-day SMA band which is now being tested as resistance, having previously been support. A rejection of this level could be a very bearish signal while a break above here could be quite the opposite.
Ultimately, this is a very headline-driven market and volatility is expected to persist. If we do see a move above, 7,335-7,400 is the next big test, with the 61.8 fib, 55/89-day SMA band and prior resistance combining. A failure at the 50 fib could see attention shift back to 7,000 - a major psychological barrier, prior support and resistance, and roughly the mid-point of the recent lows and highs.
Scalp trade for UK100Hey guys,
I've been scalping for 2 years and decided I woud start sharing my ideas.
Waiting for:
RSI confirmation
EMA confirmation
Trend already acknowledged
Key levels mapped out.
I'm in and out pretty quick, 10-15 pips with a decent lot size. This is just my method and works for me. I wouldn't recommend this if you are new to trading or inexperienced with good entries/exits.
Trading PsychologyA positive mindset is perhaps the most important part of a successful trader's approach to the forex. Of course, developing the proper trading psychology is no easy task. Unless you are one of the chosen few who is not subject to the human element, taking a few tips from the market pros can help you consistently align risk to reward. Trade with no emotion as they say. Master your mind and you master yourself. Keep calm and may the pips be with you! :)
UK100GBP turning bearishEvening folks. I noticed this ascending channel on the UK100GBP which seems to have broke the support line. Could this be a false break out or is UK100 heading towards a bear market. If we get a few closes below the current channels support then we could see price fall. As for my strategy i'll be waiting for the cloud to turn red, a conversion line and base line crossover and price to move under the cloud. This could still take a few weeks but its worth keeping an eye on this one.
Let me know your thoughts or analysis.
cheers.
The Stars are Aligning: FTSEEntered a nice short, anticipate bearish correction with potential for bear market.
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