Nasdaq analysis: 09-Jan-2025Good morning, everyone! Today's Nasdaq analysis is designed to educate and empower. Use these insights to refine your price action trading strategy.
US100 trade ideas
Bullish bounce?USTEC is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance level.
Pivot: 20,802.45
1st Support: 20,514.07
1st Resistance: 21,294.61
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NAS100 - lets focus on recoveryTeam,
Yesterday, we got DOW to hit two targets. and 3 target short for the DAX
We are now entering long at 21076-85 ranges
STOP LOSS at 21035 or extend to 20987
Target 1 at 21112-26 - NOTE: once it hits our first target range, take partial and bring stop loss to BE.
Target 2 - 21187-95 - I would prefer to take this target as confident.
Target 3 - 21286-21332
Weekly chart analysis for US100 Currently showing support at the previous high. We still have selling pressure, however if we continue to keep above 20,600 with bullish confirmation, we can expect further upside to a new ATH. Below we can expect support at the trend line.
Overall Long term trend is still up, we will be looking closely at company earnings and the feds response to sticky inflation.
We are looking for a weekly bullish candle signal and confirmation from multiple time frames to confirm our entry, at current support or the current trend line.
NASDAQ100 vs US10YSomething is brewing up in this ratio chart between NASDAQ100 vs US10Y. We see in our ratio chart on a daily timeframe, that the 20 Day DMA is already below the 50 DMA and 100 DMA and on the way to be below 200 DMA. The last time it did this in April 2024 it was an bullish indicator. The assessment is that the 20 DMA first goes below 200 DMA in the next couple of weeks and then the RSI flips bullish and gives us a bullish flash indicator. RSI is currently at 26. Watch until it touches 20 and then we can go for long QQQ and short US10Y.
NASDAQ: The buy zone is under the 1D MA50.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.510, MACD = 54.540, ADX = 27.946) as it got rejected yesterday back to its 1D MA50. This trendline is holding since September 12th and during this 4 month period is sustained a very steady uptrend. This is so far the bullish sequence with the slowest pace inside the 2 year Channel Up. This lack of strength along with the fact that the 1D RSI formed a pattern that during these 2 years was followed by a dip under the 1D MA50, suggests that it might be best waiting for the price to hit the 1D MA100 before placing a long term buy again. Once this condition is met, we will go long and aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 24,350), which was always hit when a Channel Top was priced.
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Technical Analysis of Nasdaq 100: Key Support Holds as Bulls The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is currently trading at 21,100, with a target price of 23,000, suggesting a bullish outlook and a potential rise of 1,900 points. The price is holding above a key trendline, which acts as a strong support level. This trendline's role is significant, as the recent bounce from this support confirms its reliability. The pattern indicates that the index may continue its upward trajectory if no major resistance levels hinder its movement. Such a setup suggests the market sentiment remains positive. A break above intermediate resistance levels could accelerate the rally. However, traders must remain cautious of external factors like earnings reports or Federal Reserve policy updates that might affect momentum. Proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility.
US100 longUS100
LONG
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
us100 LONGus100 LONG
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
Buy or Sell? Read the caption. I told you...Hello guys
We came with NAS100 analysis.
Due to the heavy selling that has happened now, we need to maintain the defined twin bottom range to maintain the upward trend.
Otherwise, the drop will continue up to the specified limits.
Now, if the price is supported, you can see its growth up to the specified areas.
*Trade safely with us*
Potential buyBased on the gap I feel that the market would attract to it (TP4). It has also taken out liquidity recently and it should be looking to take out the previous highs and also to fill in orders above
US100 2025 ABC CorrectionWe've reached the bull flag target and exceeded the target.
ABC correction to take place, I would be looking for a 20-30% retracement following the fib levels from the October 2022 lows.
I would first expect a trendline touch followed by a small rally and then a trendline breakdown to reach the C wave target ~17k.
NASDAQ Analysis: Bearish Momentum Targets Key Support LevelsUSNAS100 Technical Analysis
The price has dropped by approximately 500 pips and continues to move toward 20,990 while remaining below 21,215.
As long as the price trades below 21,215 and 21,160, it is expected to target 20,990 and 20,860. A retest of 21,215 is possible before resuming the bearish trend.
A bullish reversal will be confirmed only if a 4-hour candle closes above 21,220.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 21145
Resistance Levels: 21280, 21390, 21535
Support Levels: 20990, 20860, 20670
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while below 21215
US100 shortUS100 has broken the market structure that was established since the August lows. We have retested it at 21700 yesterday and we have now prepared the down move, this down move coudl be setting up the Weekly HL which aligns with both the 24EMA on the weekly and the 0.618 retracement level.
The market participants seem to be very complacent and this was myself included, until yesterday where we had the retest and not the break of the trend line, and the cross below the 24EMA on the 4H we are setting up very strongly to Fall now with the target being 19500 ish.
I am reactive and not predictive so when and if we reach there I will send out what to do next
Moustafa!! Be ready for a big bearish wave will hit US100 soon! * The used times frames are the monthly, weekly and the daily.. on the chart at this idea, is shown the daily frame!
* The purple daily uptrend line which was not broken since 05.08.24 if you remember what happened at the carry trade and Japan interest rates of that time, was broken at 18.12.24 and then pullback then the index pushed down again then on 03.01.25, another pullback happened and it could go to max 21635 but I believe will be pretty hard that one daily candle can close above that price 21635
* A descending bearish triangle already formed and the main idea, that the index will face huge resistance which will push the price down to breakthrough the triangle to send the index further down to the TP1 regardless any bullish short term retraces to the upside, but 20230 will be my TP currently!
* I believe that the main target is even further down when the index touches by the daily candle the green uptrend line which is strong as a steel and was not broken since 06.01.2023 and the last time the index touched that line was at 05.08.2024 which caused a huge insane push to the upside.
* My Fib retracements levels are powerful and closure of the daily candle of 02.01.2024 is a huge indication that the index would go further down even if a pullback to the upside happened on the 3rd of January (last Friday session)
****** Note:
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
US100 Will Go Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21,249.90.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 22,102.42.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Push to the upside followed by downward pressure!US100 is currently pulling back to the upside after experiencing a strong sell-off yesterday. As of now, the indice is pulling back up and may try to touch 21350-21500, depending on where the current pullback subsides.
If the bullish pullback is successful, bearish pressure may continue targeting the respective low and complete the current correction phase.
However, stability above 21500-21700, may see a bull run.
USTEC - LONG - 08/01/25Since the previous USTEC update, price has retraced back to near entry zone. This idea is based off of the basic Break of Structure ---> Return to Demand zone with confidence that price still has more upside potential based on higher timeframe trend. However, the stop loss has been minimized to reduce risk. 1:7.5 Risk:Reward.
Nas100 updateTechnical Analysis:
Trend:
• The market is still in an overall uptrend, given the ascending channel structure.
• However, the recent break below the midline and rejection at the upper boundary suggest possible short-term bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
1. Support:
• 21,200–21,220: Current price level and a critical area to hold. A break below could lead to further downside.
• 20,766 (blue horizontal line): Major support and a previous demand zone. A test of this level is possible if the bearish pressure continues.
2. Resistance:
• 21,500: The midline of the channel and the 50-period MA align here, making this a key resistance zone to watch.
• 21,800–22,212: The upper channel boundary and previous swing highs. Price needs to break above this to regain strong bullish momentum.
Moving Averages:
• Shorter MAs (blue lines) are crossing below longer MAs (red lines), suggesting bearish momentum in the short term.
• The 200-period MA (thicker red line) is still acting as dynamic support, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary, adding confluence to the 20,766 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case:
• If the price bounces from 21,200–21,220 and breaks back above the 21,500 resistance zone, it could retest 21,800 and potentially the channel’s upper boundary near 22,200.
• Entry: After a bullish breakout and retest above 21,500.
• Target: 21,800 and 22,200.
• Stop Loss: Below 21,200.
2. Bearish Case:
• If the price fails to hold 21,200, a move down to the 20,766 support zone is likely.
• A break below 20,766 could invalidate the ascending channel, leading to further downside toward 20,400 or lower.
• Entry: On a clean break and retest below 21,200.
• Target: 20,766 and 20,400.
• Stop Loss: Above 21,500.
Indicators to Watch:
• Volume: Look for increasing volume during key breakouts or breakdowns.
• RSI/MACD: Watch for divergence signals to confirm potential reversals near critical levels.
Conclusion:
The market is at a critical juncture. The reaction at 21,200 will determine whether bulls regain control or bears push the price lower toward the 20,766 support zone. Stay cautious and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
US 100 Analysis: 1H, 1D Order Block AnalysisThis is my analysis of the US 100, focusing on a 1-hour sell order block and a 1-day buy order block. Highlighting key levels and potential setups for informed trading decisions.
Actionable Nasdaq insights: 08-Jan-2025Rise and shine, traders! Start your day with actionable Nasdaq insights. Let's grow your skills together, one chart at a time.
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 7 Jan 2025I trade Nasdaq exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you!
Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST)
Economic news - JOLTS Job Openings @ 15h00
News - None
Directional bias - BUY
Morning analysis:
M TF - Currently showing bullish sentiment, even after last month's doji candle close.
W TF - Bulls have managed so far to keep price above W neckline (on the W TF change the chart type to line chart and you will clearly see the "M" representing a DT market pattern).
D TF - D 0.618 SELL fib level was broken, as bulls pushed price up well above this level and managed to close the D candle above it. Even though bulls showed massive strength on Monday, they were unable to close the D candle above the D falling wedge pattern top blue line, i.e. they were unable to break the pattern upwards. At time of writing in the morning, temporary blue downtrend line is being respected. The blue downtrend line represents the D downtrend of the falling wedge (drawn on the D TF) and the green down trendline represents the 4H downtrend line (drawn on the 4H TF)
4H TF - Potential neckline of a DT noted and marked with orange. If the 7am candle breaks this neckline downwards, price will push down because we are at the top of a higher TF market pattern (D falling wedge) + we have a 4H DT. These are strong bearish signals, but they will only be valid should price action give a reversal signal by bears being able to break the orange neckline downwards. The D buy fib levels coincide with the 4H buy fib levels as both are drawn from swing low at B to swing high at A on each respective TF. This gives a form of TF confluence and makes these levels stronger.
1H - Bears have managed to break below the pivot point + 1H EMA. The 1H candle that closed at 6am, wicked down to the pink uptrend line and there was a strong reaction (long lower candle wick) alluding to the validity of this uptrend line.
Interest area's:
1. One buy area of confluence marked in green highlight - 4H EMA + D EMA (at that time) + D 0.382 buy fib level
As the day progressed:
Bulls managed to push up and break the pivot point upwards.
The candle that broke the pivot closed right on the 30min EMA. When Nas is very bullish or bearish, the 30min EMA will act / be respected as dynamic support and resistance.
Hence, I didn't want to enter my buy right at this level. I waited to see what price action would reveal.
Looking at the 15min TF you can see a small price retracement to the pivot point (red candle at C.), a doji right at the pivot point and a green candle pushing up and away from the pivot and closing higher .
It was at this point that I entered on a full position size, as I deemed my risk low because I had waited for the break and re-test:
Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations:
1. Market pattern - 30 min DB with neckline broken upwards and re-tested
2. S&R - pivot point + 1H EMA acting as dynamic support
3. Trend - Buy is in the overall bullish direction of the recent market and temporary orange downtrend line broken upwards. Price also rejecting and moving away from temporary down trend blue line
4. Fib -
5. Candlesticks - bullish engulfing candle to the left of C. on the 1H TF + previous long wick candle rejecting the D sell 0.618 fib.
Mental SL placed at the thick pink line, so that the pivot point the 1H EMA and bulls rejecting the 4H neckline could possibly protect my buy.
Price action was a bit choppy, but I held my position open as price was making higher highs and higher lows on the 1H TF. Price gradually trending upwards along the 1H EMA.
Then news came out at 15h00 and price fell through the floor.
JOLTS Job Openings is not really a "high impact" news event for Nasdaq like the CPI and NFP is. So this was a surprisingly volatile move, indicating how sensitive traders are to economic news that would affect Fed decisions regarding rate cuts.
For me, up until the news, Nas was showing really good bullish price action. And then price just fell through the floor.
I closed my biggest position at 1'150 pips loss (as I usually don't like to take losses of more than 1'000 pips a day). My smaller position size, I hesitated to close and took a loss of 2'411 pips! WHAT THE HELL!!!
This was the fist time in a long time that I hesitated to close and it cost me badly, my emotions really got in the way here.
Then, as per my strategy, when price reached my interest area, I moved down to the 5min TF and entered a buy when price made a DB on the 5min TF at the lower hand icon..
But that was a false signal i.e. a small bounce off a strong reversal zone, but price ultimately tanked further and I closed at 1'126 pips loss.
What a freakin disaster....I basically took a 2'927 pips loss today (if I smooth the effect of position sizing).
Part of this loss is due to variance and part of it is due to my own fault.
There is no way I could have projected that Nas would fall through the floor on this news event and I don't regret my entry as I do believe my entry is correct for my bias and I did wait for the break and re-test.
My mistake was that I hesitated to close and took a bigger loss than I should have.
I also should not have entered again if I had already taken such a huge loss for the day. My strategy is to be out for the day if I make a 1000 pip loss.
So it was a bit of a disaster.
Nasdaq (and mostly myself) DESTROYED me today!
After this devastation to my trading account, I think I will sit the rest of the week out, as tomorrow market are closed in national mourning and then Friday is NFP which I don't trade anyway.
I need market to be as "normal" as possible because now I have my work cut out for me to slowly make up these losses. I will need to look for good quality entries and limit my risk.
Losses are normal in trading and these will be faced by every trader. But the biggest damage a trader can do to his progress is to have uncontrolled losses and let losses get bigger than they should.
It has been many months since I made this error, so I am making progress, but one bad day can cause serious damage.
Limiting losses is more important than making money. If you don't have this skill you will never be profitable over the long run - I was reminded of this valuable lesson today.
Hope you had a better day than me!
Abbreviations:
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support & resistance
H&S = head & shoulders
EMA = exponential moving average
SL = stop loss
Nasdaq 100 Spot (4H Chart) AnalysisThe Nasdaq 100 is currently exhibiting a potential bullish reversal on the 4-hour chart. A key buying opportunity is identified around the 21,171 level, with a stop-loss set at 20,727 to manage risk. The initial target (First Tp) is positioned at approximately 21,600, with an ultimate target near 22,101.
This setup aligns with recent technical indicators suggesting upward momentum after a period of consolidation. Traders should track market sentiment and any macroeconomic developments that could influence this trajectory for optimal entry and exit points.
NOTE This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice,
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