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Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key EventsNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events. The Nasdaq ended current day on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests this week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but this week FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Monday 25 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None News - None Directional bias - BUY Morning analysis: M TF - Remains very bullish, only 4 days till close. Green candle body is 9300 pips strong (at time of writing) - indicates overall bullish sentiment. W TF - Last week's candle closed green, indicating that price broke the previous highest weekly close, came down all the way to retest this level and then last week's candle closed green as bulls successfully retested this level and this weekly resistance has now turned to support. D TF - Huge gap up this morning (686 pips). Price finally broke above the 0.50 SELL fib level. Further indication of bullish sentiment. 4H TF - after the gap up for the start of the day, two long green candles closed on the 4H TF. One had a long wick down rejecting the D Sell 0.618 fib level. Buyers are rejecting this zone and pushing up. I identified 2 areas of confluence (highlighted in green): 1. Strong 4H S&R zone that held down 5 x 4H candles + 4H 0.618 fib level (swing low at A. to swing high at B. This fib only became clear later in the day.) + 4H EMA 2. W 0.50 fib level + D EMA + D 0.618 fib level If price comes down to any of these zones I will enter with a full position size and because these are strong areas of confluence (and Nas is so volatile), I would watch the 5min TF for signs that price is ready to reverse. As the day progressed: Price spike up high to B. and I closed a runner that I had open from last week (not at B. exactly but as price was coming down). Price fell quickly after market open. I view this as a retracement and not a change to the very bullish sentiment that is so evident on the higher TF's. Price come to my interest zone 1 and gave a nice little DB on the 5min TF Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - DB on 5min TF, with neckline broken upwards with a strong green momentum candle (I don't normally enter on this TF unless it is an area of confluence) 2. S&R - as mentioned strong resistance zone holding down 5 4H candles, now clearly turned to support. Also dynamic support provided by the 4H EMA 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I like to trade with the trend always. 4. Fib - D 0.382 + 4H 0.618 Mental SL placed below green highlight at the thick pink line at half the height of the 5min DB. Price has moved more than 250pips from my entry and I am now secured at entry (so trading risk free). Will leave it over night and hope to wake up tomorrow morning to my positions still being open. Hope you had a good trading day! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NASDAQ looking to hold the 4H MA50 in order to sustain the rallyNasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is looking to re-test it as a Support. The medium-term pattern has been a Channel Up since the September 06 Low and every time the 4H MA50 broke following a bottom, it held and sustained the Bullish Leg until the top. It appears that the most common rally % within this pattern is +6.80%. As a result, assuming the 4H MA50 holds, our Target is 21650. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
1-hr US100: High Demand for Tech StocksThe NASDAQ is showing strong upward momentum as it recovers, with potential confirmation of an uptrend continuation seen through the Golden Cross—a classic buy signal. This occurs when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses above a longer-term MA, indicating buyers' dominance. While short-term corrections remain possible, traders should keep an eye on the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 23% and 38%. These levels could act as support during pullbacks, offering better entry points for long positions. The area near 20,760 appears particularly attractive, providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for buyers looking to align with the bullish trend. This level sits just above the critical 38% Fib, reinforcing its importance as a support zone for the ongoing momentum.
SKILLING:US100Long
by Trendsharks
Key Levels and Scenarios: Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish RisksTechnical Analysis The price currently holds a bullish bias as long as it trades above 20860. Bearish Scenario: A sustained break below 20860 could initiate a drop toward 20750. Further confirmation, with a 4-hour candle close below 20750, would signal extended bearish momentum, targeting 20660 and 20550. Bullish Scenario: Stability above 20860 indicates bullish momentum, with the price aiming for 20990. A 4-hour candle close above 20990 would confirm further upside potential, targeting the all-time high (ATH) around 21250. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20860 Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21250 Support Levels: 20670, 20550, 20330
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
Nasdaq Scalp- A Short-Term Upside PotentialBased on last week's price , the Nasdaq presents a potential for upward movement, specifically for scalping opportunities. This setup is contingent on the price sustaining acceptance above the identified zone, which could indicate a short-term bullish trend ideal for quick trades. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Scalping and trading carry significant risks and may result in substantial losses. Always exercise caution and trade responsibly.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Bilind-GeniusScalper
1
NAS100 - Nasdaq will stabilize above 21 anytime?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the specified supply zone, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions to target the bottom of the ascending channel. Nasdaq buying positions will be at the bottom of the channel and the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement The housing sector was in the spotlight last week. The market has regained attention following an unexpected surge in mortgage rates, which have risen by nearly 75 basis points since the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut during its September meeting. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for 30-year mortgages climbed to 6.8% in the week ending November 21, offsetting much of the reductions seen in August and September. Existing home sales increased by 3.4% in October, breaking a two-month decline. However, it’s important to note that October’s data largely reflects homebuying activity from late September, a period when mortgage rates were trending downward. Despite this rise, the annualized sales rate of 3.96 million units in October remains sluggish. By comparison, the 2021 average was about 6.1 million units, with current declines largely attributed to higher yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Consumers remain relatively resilient, continuing to spend at a strong pace. October’s retail sales data exceeded expectations with a 0.4% increase, supported by upward revisions to previous figures. This trend indicates that households are entering the holiday season under favorable economic conditions. In the upcoming week, durable goods orders data is anticipated. This segment, particularly aircraft orders, has experienced significant volatility in recent months. Challenges in the aviation industry are among the main reasons for this instability. While strikes may have impacted production last month, Boeing data reveals that only 63 new aircraft orders were placed in October, roughly matching the prior month’s figure. As a result, conditions in October are expected to have stabilized somewhat. Overall, demand appears to be leveling out, yet uncertainties regarding corporate investment spending persist. Although borrowing costs and interest rates have been decreasing, the extent and intensity of these declines remain uncertain. Federal Reserve officials have recently acknowledged that, due to strong economic data and sticky inflation, rate cuts in the coming months are likely to proceed gradually and at a slower pace. Additionally, even though U.S. elections have concluded, it is still unclear which policies, particularly tariffs, will be implemented. This week, several regional indicators—such as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—will be released. Monitoring these data points could provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s health and serve as leading indicators for assessing upcoming economic releases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that both headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes are expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.3% and from 2.7% to 2.8%, respectively, in October. If these projections materialize, the Fed may still proceed with a rate cut in December. Should the PCE report fail to offer clear guidance on the Fed’s next move, investors will turn their attention to the minutes from the November monetary policy meeting, which will be released on the same day. Additionally, other critical data, such as personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, will be published on Wednesday. According to CME data, market participants estimate a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting on December 18, while a 44% chance of holding rates steady is also considered. These probabilities could shift with the release of more data ahead of the meeting. Furthermore, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting are also expected this week.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Updated Market Analysis and Outlook1. Overview of Market Structure and Key Phases Phase A: Establishing the Range Selling Climax (SC): Defined at 20,254.0, marking the exhaustion of selling pressure. Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds from SC to approximately 20,650.5, indicating short-term bullish demand. Secondary Test (ST): Price revisits near the SC zone to confirm support. ST is evident just above 20,254.0, validating the lower boundary of the range. Phase B: Consolidation and Cause Building The market is oscillating in a well-defined range, with: Support zone: Between 20,254.0 (SC) and 20,322.1. Resistance zone: Around 20,650.5 and 20,880.0, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels and previous highs. The ST in Phase B indicates continued accumulation, with price preparing for a breakout. Phase C (Anticipated Next Week) LPS (Last Point of Support): Price is expected to retest key levels around 20,322.1 to confirm support before initiating an upward move. Spring Potential: A brief dip below 20,254.0 may occur to trap sellers, followed by a sharp reversal (a bullish signal). 2. Key Price Levels and Volume Analysis Support Levels 20,322.1: Major support and the current accumulation boundary. 20,254.0: Critical invalidation level; a break below signals bearish continuation. 20,219.8: Absolute support and long-term invalidation point (Wave 0 breakdown). Resistance Levels 20,650.5: The 0.382 Fibonacci level and immediate resistance. 20,880.0: Key resistance from the horizontal volume profile, marking the top of the accumulation range. 21,033.5: A breakout level aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. 21,245.7: High-probability target and Wave 1 invalidation level. Volume Profile Point of Control (POC): Centered near 20,257.1, indicating the area of highest trading activity and a magnet for price. Low-Volume Gaps: Between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5, suggesting fast movement if these levels are broken. 3. Elliott Wave Analysis Wave Progression Wave i: Completed upward move from SC to AR (20,650.5). Wave ii: A corrective wave that retested support near 20,322.1. Wave iii: A projected bullish move targeting 20,880.0, with potential to extend toward 21,033.5. Wave iv: Anticipated short correction before final upward move. Wave v: A bullish breakout toward 21,245.7 and above. Invalidation Levels A failure to hold 20,254.0 invalidates the current wave structure. A break above 21,245.7 invalidates bearish momentum and signals a shift to a long-term uptrend. 4. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios Bullish Scenario Price confirms support at 20,322.1 or performs a Spring below 20,254.0, leading to: A rally toward 20,880.0 (resistance). Further bullish breakout to 21,033.5 and 21,245.7. Transition into Phase D (Mark-Up) with sustained higher highs and higher lows. Bearish Scenario Price breaks below 20,254.0 without a recovery, leading to: A retest of 20,219.8 (support). Continuation of the downtrend toward new lows, invalidating the accumulation. 5. Projected Timeline Monday to Wednesday Price likely consolidates between 20,322.1 and 20,650.5. Possible Spring and recovery by midweek. Thursday to Friday Anticipated breakout above 20,880.0, confirming bullish momentum. Potential test of 21,033.5 and beyond. 6. Trading Recommendations Long Positions Entry Zones: Near 20,322.1: On confirmation of support. Spring setup below 20,254.0: Look for reversal signs. Targets: Short-term: 20,650.5. Medium-term: 20,880.0 and 21,033.5. Long-term: 21,245.7. Stop-Loss: Below 20,219.8. Short Positions Entry Zones: Near 20,880.0: On rejection or bearish reversal patterns. Targets: Short-term: 20,322.1. Long-term: 20,254.0. Stop-Loss: Above 21,033.5.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by spaceangel
10
Critical Zones Ahead for NAS100! Here is a detailed breakdown and trading plan for the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) based on the provided chart analysis, using the same structured format for clarity. NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Market Breakdown & Trading Plan 1. Market Context and Structure Phase and Current Movement: Left Chart (1H): NAS100 is in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave sequence, moving within a corrective phase. Wave 5 is expected to bring a final push higher before transitioning into a larger correction. Price is showing a potential weakened Wave A, followed by a shallow corrective structure, suggesting upward movement toward a key resistance area near 20,771.9–21,045.3. Right Chart (4H): The current market is within a distribution phase (Phase C) after breaking above a Volume-Divergence by Wave 5 zone (22,061.9) on a previous attempt. A strong rejection in the resistance zone is anticipated, followed by a markdown phase targeting lower support levels. 2. Expected Price Movement Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion) Target Levels: First target: 20,771.9 (Wave A peak resistance). Primary target: 21,045.3 (Fibonacci 0.786 retracement and divergence level). Stretch target: 21,247.5 (weakened high resistance on the daily chart). Invalidation: Reversal below 20,500.0 before reaching 20,771.9 invalidates Wave 5 completion. Correction and Markdown Phase: Key Reversal Zone: A strong rejection at 21,045.3–21,247.5 is expected to trigger the markdown phase. Projected Downside Targets: Short-term target: 20,647.3 (short-term support at key Fibonacci level). Medium-term target: 20,408.1 (Wave B triangle boundary and critical support). Extended downside: 20,309.1 (invalidates bullish structure; Phase C SC line). 3. Key Price Levels to Monitor Bullish Resistance Zones: 20,771.9: Wave A high; primary resistance where rejection could occur. 21,045.3: 0.786 Fibonacci retracement; key resistance and divergence zone. 21,247.5: Stretch target; weakened high likely to attract liquidity before reversal. Support Zones: 20,647.3: Fibonacci 0.5 retracement; potential bounce zone during markdown. 20,408.1: Triangle boundary (Wave B support) and critical level for bullish continuation. 20,309.1: SC accumulation level; loss here confirms bearish continuation. 4. Trading Plan Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5 Setup: Look for bullish continuation toward resistance levels if price holds above 20,647.3. Entry: Enter long positions on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0 with clear bullish momentum. Targets: First target: 20,771.9. Primary target: 21,045.3. Stretch target: 21,247.5. Invalidation: A failure to hold above 20,500.0 signals early markdown, invalidating this scenario. Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion Setup: Look for rejection at the 21,045.3–21,247.5 resistance zone to confirm markdown. Short Entry Criteria: Rejection from the resistance zone with lower highs on lower timeframes. Confirmation via bearish momentum and failure to break above resistance. Targets: Short-term target: 20,647.3. Medium-term target: 20,408.1. Extended target: 20,309.1. Stop-Loss: Above 21,247.5 (upper resistance zone) to limit risk. Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion Setup: If price fails to break 20,771.9 or reverses early: Watch for signs of markdown with a breakdown below 20,500.0. Short Setup: Enter on confirmation of bearish breakdown below 20,500.0. Targets: Short-term target: 20,408.1. Medium-term target: 20,309.1. Invalidation: Reclaiming 20,771.9 invalidates bearish markdown bias. 5. Commentary for Your Audience What to Expect This Week: NAS100 is likely to push higher to test resistance at 20,771.9–21,045.3, potentially hitting the stretch target at 21,247.5. A strong reversal is expected from these levels, leading to a markdown phase targeting lower support levels like 20,647.3, 20,408.1, and 20,309.1. How to Trade: For Long Traders: Enter longs on dips to 20,647.3 or 20,500.0, targeting 21,045.3. Be cautious near resistance; take profits and prepare for a reversal. For Short Traders: Look for bearish rejection signals near 21,045.3–21,247.5 and enter shorts. Target the markdown phase toward 20,408.1 or deeper. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: For longs, place stops below 20,500.0. For shorts, place stops above 21,247.5. Position Sizing: Adjust leverage for high volatility near key levels. Discipline: Avoid over-trading and wait for clear confirmation of setups.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by spaceangel
3