US30 bearish play setting upThe hourly chart is in a downtrend, and we are at that trend line.
On the 15m chart, the momentum of buyers has slowed down to the point where sellers hit it hard as shown by the black arrow.
We want to see the "Last strong buyer" failing to make a new high (or creating a fake high), retesting the horizontal and price falling out of bed.
Waiting for the retest is best but price might not retest before dropping.
US30 trade ideas
US30: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 togetherโบ๏ธ
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 41,170 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred. And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 41,039..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
Dow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key DriversDow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key Drivers
Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is under pressure and likely headed for a correction due to the Federal Reserveโs tight monetary policy, trade uncertainty from Trumpโs tariffs, and weak economic data.
Key Drivers:
โ Federal Reserve Policy: At the May 6โ7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain the 4.25โ4.5% interest rate due to persistent inflation (2.7% forecast for 2025) and a robust labor market (+177K jobs in April). This dampens hopes for rate cuts, pressuring stocks.
โ Trumpโs Tariffs: New tariffs raise inflation risks and recession fears, reducing the appeal of Dow Jones constituents like Caterpillar and Walmart.
โ Weak GDP and Global Volatility: A 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and declines in Asian markets (1.6โ1.8%) signal global instability.
โ Technical Indicators: DIA trades below its 200-day moving average (~420 USD), with fewer stocks above this level (down from 76% to 55% since January), indicating market weakness.
โ Outlook: Analysts (Long Forecast) predict volatility, with a potential drop to 38,958 in May, despite an average forecast of 43,370 by month-end. Historically, corrections occur every 1.88 years, and current conditions (tariffs, inflation, GDP) heighten the likelihood of a 10โ15% decline.
Target: My downside target for the Dow Jones is 38,555.00.
Current factors and historical trends strongly suggest a near-term correction.
Idea for S&P 500:
DJI - 2000 pts already moved out of 8000 pts since last posted?It has already moved around 2000 points since last posted on 22nd April. Expecting around 8000 points moved as per mentioned earlier and the levels are still the same. Introduced additional levels for the better understanding. So, another 6000 points move pending before any reasonable correction? let's see.
Upside: 41240.49, 43084.22, 45025.94 and 46967.67
Downside: 34578.53, 32728.34, 30786.61 and 28844.88
US30 Long Setup | Targeting the Unfilled 4H Gap๐ง Technical Analysis
๐น Unfilled Gap (Target Area)
A large 4H imbalance/gap remains unfilled between 41,500โ41,600, highlighted in yellow.
This acts as a magnet for price โ the market often retraces to fill inefficiencies after structure is built below.
๐น Breakout and Retest
Price has broken above a consolidation structure and returned to retest the breakout level.
The "Invalidation Zone" (~41,147โ41,222) is clearly marked โ if price breaks below this area, the long idea is invalidated.
Current candle shows strong bullish follow-through after testing the invalidation area.
๐น Bullish Market Structure
The overall price action is forming higher highs and higher lows.
The recent impulse move confirms bullish momentum and continuation potential.
๐ Trade Setup
Bias: Bullish
Entry: ~41,237.50 (current price)
Stop Loss: Below 41,147 (clear invalidation zone)
Target: 41,541.52 (unfilled 4H gap)
Risk:Reward: High (approx. 1:3+)
โ
Why This Trade Makes Sense
Clean structure breakout
Clear imbalance target above
Strong follow-through candle at breakout retest
Logical invalidation level below the range
โ ๏ธ Risk Considerations
Watch for volatility around news events (US data, FOMC, etc.)
A close below the invalidation zone would signal failed breakout
๐งญ Trading Plan
If price continues to hold above 41,200 and prints bullish continuation patterns (e.g., bull flags or strong engulfing candles), holding toward the 41,540โ41,600 range remains valid.
US30 (Dow Jones) Daily Analysis โ Make or Break at DowntrendUS30 Daily Analysis
Technical Outlook โ May 1, 2025
๐ Current Market Condition:
US30 is trading near a critical confluence zone where price meets descending trendline resistance and horizontal supply. This level previously acted as a strong rejection point, making the current test significant.
๐งฉ Key Technical Highlights:
Price testing descending trendline from March highs.
Horizontal resistance zone around 41,000โ41,300 is being challenged.
Stochastic oscillator is nearing overbought levels, suggesting caution.
The ascending channelโs lower boundary recently held as support near 38,000.
Compression forming between trendline resistance and rising support.
๐ Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
Break and close above 41,300 could open path to retest 43,000 and 45,000 levels.
Look for a bullish daily candle with strong volume above trendline.
Bearish Case:
Rejection from current resistance could send price back toward 39,500โ38,000 support zone.
Watch for bearish divergence on Stochastic or failed break above resistance.
๐ Important Note:
This week's economic calendar includes key data releasesโstay alert for volatility that may trigger a breakout or reversal.
If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
US30: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD togetherโบ๏ธ
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 40,968.4 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 41,302.5 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
US30 (Dow Jones) Outlook โ Thursday SetupWe're seeing a strong bullish push following the London Open. My expectation is for price to dip back into the London ORB zone and test one of the marked short-term demand blocks.
๐ Play-by-Play Expectation:
Pullback to the lower OB zones and ORB.
Strong reaction from demand with bullish continuation.
Final target: top of the H1-H4 Supply Channel above 41,200โ41,300 zone.
๐ง Contextual Notes:
Clean structure break post-London open.
Price filled imbalances efficiently.
Still respecting bullish internal order flow.
Clear confluence with trendline + FVG zones below.
๐ Key Zones:
Demand/Entry: ~40,840โ40,760
Target Supply: ~41,250+
Invalid below: 40,643
Let the market come to your zone โ no chasing. Be patient and precise. ๐งโโ๏ธ
โ ๏ธ DISCLAIMER:
This is my own analysis and Iโm still learning. Please do your own research and be careful with your risk management. This is not financial advice.
US30 Bulls Testing Resistance โ Will 40,770 Hold or Break?Price is currently testing the 40,770 ๐ผ resistance zone after a strong bullish push. This level has previously acted as a key ceiling and could determine the next directional move. Price has been climbing steadily with higher lows, indicating bullish momentum.
Support at: 40,194 ๐ฝ, 39,070 ๐ฝ, 36,800 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 40,770 ๐ผ, 41,552 ๐ผ, 42,540 ๐ผ
Bias:
๐ผ Bullish: A clean breakout and hold above 40,770 could open the path to 41,552 and 42,540.
๐ฝ Bearish: Rejection at 40,770 or a drop below 40,194 could signal weakness and send price back to 39,070.
๐ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DJIA Tests Major Resistance โ Reversal or Breakout Next?The Dow Jones Industrial Average is pressing against a key resistance zone near 40,860, the neckline of a double-bottom pattern after rebounding sharply from its mid-April low:
๐ Strong 2-week rally from sub-37K lows
๐ต Price attempting to break the neckline after reclaiming the 50-day SMA
๐ RSI near neutral at 51 โ plenty of room to run
๐ MACD accelerating upward, hinting at bullish momentum
If price clears and holds above 40,860, bulls could target a move back toward 42,500โ43,000. Failure to break this zone may trigger a pullback toward the 50-day SMA near 41,500.
The setup is constructive โ but the bulls need confirmation.
-MW
US30 Trade Update โ Target HitFollowing my earlier post, I waited patiently for a solid confirmation. After price closed above the New York ORB, I entered long โ and after a long wait, the trade finally hit the target right at the higher zone I had marked in advance.
This was a good reminder of the value of patience, planning, and trusting the process. The setup played out just as anticipated, and the breakout above structure delivered beautifully.
โ
Trade plan respected
๐ Entry after NY ORB breakout
๐ฏ Target reached with solid momentum
๐ Reminder: This is my personal analysis and part of my ongoing learning journey. Please do your own research and always manage risk responsibly.
US30 Trade Update- Still MonitoringFollowing up on my earlier analysis, I have not entered a long position yet. While the price action respected the breakout structure, momentum has weakened, and we're currently trading below the New York Opening Range (NY ORB).
Iโm holding off on any entries until we get a clean candle close above the NY ORB, which would signal renewed bullish intent. The original setup remains valid, but Iโm staying patient and disciplined, waiting for confirmation before committing.
๐ If price continues to break down and fails to reclaim the NY ORB, I wonโt be trading US30 for the rest of the day โ Iโll let the market do its thing and wait for a better setup.
๐ Reminder: This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. I'm still learning and sharing my process โ always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Dow Jones at Critical Levels!Dow Jones Technical Outlook:
Currently, the Dow Jones remains within a broader bearish structure ๐, trading near the lower boundary of its descending channel.
Nonetheless, the formation of higher highs and higher lows on the daily and 4H timeframes โฐ suggests that a potential bullish reversal may be developing ๐.
The 40,700 โ 40,300 range is a key decision zone โก๏ธ:
โข A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a minor bullish rally ๐.
โข Conversely, a failure to hold above this area and the formation of new lower highs and lower lows would reinforce the ongoing bearish trend ๐.
Additionally, the recent bullish weekly and monthly closes ๐
support a bias toward further upside momentum.
In the initial phase, we may see a corrective move to the downside on lower timeframes to form a wick (shadow) for the monthly candle before any significant bullish continuation ๐๐.
Stay flexible and monitor price action closely! ๐