VIX Volatility approaching a peak. Bottom sign for stocks?Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high:
It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low.
This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg).
The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate.
Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed.
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VXX trade ideas
VIX Has Broken This TL for the First Time in a Year and a Half!VIX has broken to the upside of this descending trend line as the world holds their breath over the Israel/Iran conflict. This is the first time fear has broken above this trend line since September of 2022. Pair this observation with the current dollar strength and you know which way the markets will go, down.
The VIX weekly is spiking, and a bull flag is forming.The VIX weekly is spiking, and a bull flag is forming, which could trigger a breakout from the wedge. Higher lows forming and wedge getting tighter.
More volatility is returning to the market. Risk off 📴 mode activated.
This usually translates into more bearish bias in markets moving forward ⏩🐻
VIX & UVXY Update: Short-Term Bearish Outlook Amidst Loose MoneyStay informed with CandlestickNinja's analysis on the VIX and UVXY! Despite recent spikes, a short-term bearish outlook prevails due to loose money actions. Follow us on TradingView for more insights. #VIX #UVXY #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketSentiment
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
There is no in-betweenNot only will people be repositioning for the "Santa rally", but tech earnings will create a lot of distrust in the "big 7". These stocks are single handedly holding this market up, it will take the slightest news to make the first domino fall.
The second we get confirmation, play it long.
Remember, the market has its ways to do the opposite of what everyone is thinking.
Dollar, VIX, Gold & Silver are Spiking! What Could This IndicateTraders,
In this video I'll cover the spikes we are witnessing in the dollar, fear, and precious metals (specifically gold). We'll discuss what this might indicate to us from a geo-political/macro-economic perspective. Inflation continues to tick up. The SEC continues to attack big players (tokens/coins) in the crypto space without providing rules for how to play fairly. We'll track the current progress on stocks pulling back. Bitcoin dominance had done something it has never done before. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to track sideways while altcoins continue their deeper pullback. Plus, I'll analyze Ethereum Classic and at the end of the video I have some news from my followers.
P.S. - Minutes after producing the video, I read that Iran plans to attack Israel. The charts were telling us something. Is this it?
The trend of higher peaks and troughs is brokenThe VIX’s structure with higher peaks and troughs became distorted after the FOMC meeting. Despite this being a positive development for the markets, it might be proper to stay attentive to the VIX for a couple more days to watch out for any potential rekindling of volatility.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the broadening structure.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX cycles analysis for the future behavior predictionTVC:VIX
Third 7-years cycle of the VIX index reducing starts this year and will long till the end of 2030.
In my point of view, this means, that the level of the greed starts to grow year-to-year, which will have an effect for the potential of the long positions in the long-term period of time.
#investing #stocks #idea #forecast #furoreggs #trends #index
VIX Volatility Index Analysis: Preparing for a Bounce to $16 | 3Join us for a comprehensive analysis of the VIX Volatility Index, exploring its current position in the danger zone and our expectations for a bounce towards $16. Discover key insights into market volatility and potential future trends in this in-depth update.
Vix broke 4 month trend / Will retest trend TomorrowThis Rising wedge is something I've been monitoring on Vix for a few weels now and usually when these break they will retest and if they don't break through you already know what to do :)
I'm expecting us to fall tmmrw due to Powell at 9am to 518-520 area on spy I expect us to retest the trend line I have drawn in the Tan color and then reject and will give the grren light on calls for 2-3 days I will personally be grabbing Amd $177.5 calls and Spy 520-521 calls both with next Friday exp.
VIX - forecast 2024The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing.
Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets.
The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates.
We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's optimism.
Maybe I'm missing something, but the disconnect between the market and the economy is concerning.
VIX has been rangebound since November 2023 and recently generated a positive MACD signal.
Looking ahead, the FOMC statement and Fed rate decision are later today. Historically, these events haven't triggered major market swings. A significant correction might require unexpected data, particularly a surprising labor market report.
Trade safe!
Understanding The Important VIX!Today I would like to demystify one of the most prominent volatility indexes, the VIX, and explore its significance for traders and investors. Whether you're new to trading or looking to deepen your understanding of market dynamics, the VIX plays a crucial role in assessing market sentiment and managing risk. Let's dive in.
1️⃣ What is the VIX?: The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of market volatility and investor sentiment derived from options prices on the S&P 500 index. It reflects the expected volatility of the stock market over the next 30 days. High VIX values indicate increased market volatility and uncertainty, while low values suggest calm and complacency among investors.
2️⃣ How is the VIX Calculated?: The VIX is calculated using the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Specifically, it measures the prices of near-term put and call options on the S&P 500 to estimate expected volatility. The VIX calculation involves complex mathematical formulas and statistical models to derive a single volatility index level.
3️⃣ Why is the VIX Important?: The VIX is important because it provides valuable insights into market sentiment and risk appetite. High VIX levels may indicate fear and uncertainty in the market, leading to increased hedging activity and potential downside risk. Conversely, low VIX levels may signal complacency and bullish sentiment, suggesting a higher risk of market corrections.
4️⃣ How to Interpret the VIX: Traders and investors can interpret VIX levels to gauge market sentiment and assess risk. A VIX level below 20 is considered low and may indicate a relatively calm market environment, while a VIX level above 30 suggests increased volatility and potential market turmoil. Monitoring changes in VIX levels over time can help identify shifts in market sentiment and anticipate market movements.
5️⃣ Incorporating the VIX into Trading Strategies: You can incorporate the VIX into your trading strategies in various ways. For example, some traders use the VIX as a contrarian indicator, buying when the VIX is high and selling when it's low. Others use VIX options or futures to hedge their portfolios against market volatility or to speculate on future volatility levels.
6️⃣ VIX-only Trading Strategies: There are also trading strategies specifically designed to capitalize on VIX movements. For instance, the VIX carry trade involves buying or selling VIX futures contracts based on expectations of future volatility levels. Additionally, some traders use VIX options spreads to profit from changes in volatility levels or market trends.
7️⃣ Practical Tips for Beginners: It's essential to start by familiarizing yourself with the basics of the VIX and how it's calculated. Practice analyzing VIX levels and observing how they correlate with market movements. Experiment with incorporating the VIX into your trading strategies and observe the impact on your performance. Remember to always manage risk appropriately and stay informed about market developments that may influence volatility.
The VIX is a powerful tool for traders and investors to assess market sentiment and manage risk in the financial markets. By understanding the basics of the VIX, interpreting VIX levels, and incorporating them into trading strategies, you can gain valuable insights into market dynamics and enhance your trading performance. Whether you're using the VIX as a contrarian indicator, hedging tool, or trading instrument, mastering its nuances can help you navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence.