SOL/USD – The War Between Discount & Premium Zones Is Heating Up📈 SOL/USD – The War Between Discount & Premium Zones Is Heating Up
Posted by: WaverVanir_International_LLC
Date: July 12, 2025
Asset: Solana (SOL/USD) | Timeframe: 1D
Strategy Stack: SMC | Fibonacci | Volume Profile | Macro | Catalyst | VolanX DSS Protocol
🔍 Technical Summary
SOL is battling near the 0.5 Fib retracement (~$167), a classic inflection zone. Price is compressing within an equilibrium band bounded by $145–$175. Despite a prior break of structure (BOS) to the downside, recent CHoCH and bullish BOS patterns suggest accumulation may be underway.
Key Zones:
Support (Discount): $123.46 → $103.18 → $82.91
Resistance (Premium): $189 → $235 → $263
High-Conviction Targets:
Bullish Extension: $295 → $360 → $402
Bearish Sweep Zones: $103 → $80 (liquidity pockets)
Structure Readout:
CHoCH (Mar–Apr 2025) suggests reversal potential.
BOS (May–June 2025) confirmed demand stepping in.
Current: Price testing equilibrium mid-zone, low conviction until a clean break of $175 or a flush into $130.
🌐 Macro Context (Q3 2025)
🏦 Federal Reserve Policy
FOMC paused in June, signaling data-dependency.
Market pricing 30–50bps cut by Q4 2025.
Liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto are forward-looking, already attempting to front-run easing.
💰 Global Liquidity Shift
US M2 money supply stabilizing after 2022–2024 contraction.
Global CBs (e.g., ECB, BOJ) showing coordinated signals of easing.
Risk-on flows resurging into high-beta assets → Crypto stands to benefit on the second leg of liquidity wave.
💻 Tech/Crypto Catalysts
Solana Ecosystem rebounding on strong developer metrics, NFT integration, and institutional onboarding (Visa, Shopify integrations).
Tokenization narrative gaining momentum with TradFi firms exploring SOL-based infrastructure.
Regulatory Clarity: US & EU moving toward crypto-safe harbor legislation; positive for altcoin allocation.
⚠️ VolanX DSS Signal Matrix
Module Signal Confidence
Trend Structure Transitional (CHoCH → BOS) Moderate
Fibonacci Levels Compression (0.5–0.618) High
Volume Profile Thin above $175, HVN near $145 High
Macro Liquidity Rising global flows Moderate
Catalyst Tracker Positive (SOL-specific) Moderate
🎯 Execution Framework (2 Scenarios)
🔵 Bullish Bias (Continuation):
Entry Zone: $157–$162 (with SL below $145)
Trigger: Break + close above $175
Targets: $189 → $235 → $263
Invalidation: Daily close below $141.5 BOS zone
🔴 Bearish Bias (Rejection):
Short Zone: $175–$189
Trigger: Rejection w/ CHoCH + imbalance fill
Targets: $145 → $123 → $103
Invalidation: Clean break above $195 with volume
📜 WaverVanir Risk Advisory
This outlook is generated under the WaverVanir DSS (Decision Support System) and is shared strictly for educational and analytical purposes.
We do not manage outside capital, and none of this constitutes investment advice. All systems are probabilistic and adaptive, not deterministic.
🧠 Final Notes:
Solana is at a macro hinge point. Either the liquidity-driven expansion phase begins with force — or we get one more sweep into deeper discount zones before lift-off. With global liquidity expanding and catalysts aligning, the next few weeks will define the rest of 2025’s structure.
💬 Drop your thoughts below.
🔁 Follow @WaverVanir_International_LLC for high-conviction, system-generated macro + SMC trading insights.
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