SOLUSDT ShortFundamentals
The overall crypto market is likely to retrace with the upcoming interest rate cuts across the world.
We need to understand the bigger picture, rates are starting to come down as fears of a not so good US economic cycle might be on the next corner. This, plays well into the good-old narrative that BTC (and therefore the rest of the crypto marketplace) tend to follow the equity market. The AI hype is clearly fading away and most of VC capital is now due to be taken as a loss. This may be an enormous driver for the equity markets.
So, looking at this medium-long term hypothesis, we must then look for vision-adjusted positions.
Before we move to chart analysis, we must see what's going on within the Solana ecosystem.
After a few minutes browsing the internet for news related to Solana, we can see that there is not much to go with, therefore the usual hype factor that could diverge SOL from BTC, doesn't seem to be there either. Solana should follow the overall crypto market, led by BTC.
Technicals
Going into the monthly timeframe, we can immediately see two important things.
Double top in the 200s zone, both with severe rejections
A clear support base level in the high 120s.
A clear range down to low 40s IF 120s break.
If we delve deeper into the weekly, we can see that lower highs and lower lows are being formed. It is VITAL to acknowledge the bullish attempt to break above but which was so strongly rejected immediately after. This is a major warning that bulls are just not there yet. However, no clear entry point for me just yet.
Going even deeper, to the Daily:
We can see what starts to resemble bearish flag/wedge. This aligns with out overall idea for shorts. Now I can start to envision what a possible trade can be. I need to see a clear candle coming down to the low 120s. That will serve as my confirmation. My entry will be in the next candle once it breaks the confirmation candle's low. ideally, I want my entry candle to have made its upper wick before I get in. The reason is simple, I want prices to go lower, lower highs, lower lows, therefore I want to be confident that the lower high was done (most likely done at least).
Now, assuming that we got our entry, where do we leave? Do we leave entirely or partially?
For that we can look slightly deeper, to the 4H chart.
There seems to be a clear range down to 110 and price has bounced strongly from there. Therefore, I'm going for 70/80% partials at slightly above that level, 111/2s. The 20/30% will be left as runners with trailing stops in place.
