Next wave for SoyabeansHere is my idea based on the daily chart. Currently this idea is only for technical reasons, I will explain this idea of the complete 4h route in more detail in 2023.
SOYBNUSD trade ideas
SOYBEANS Supply And demand Buy Long Trade Setup AnalysisSee picture above for top-down analysis but I'm personally bullish with HTF correlation + LTF.
SOYBEAN - IMMINENT SELL OFFSOYBEAN FUTURES - MONTHLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS
Soybean sold at Monthly Supply Zone -> Destiny: Monthly Demand Zone
I suggest make the following probable trades:
- Sell Soybean until reach Monthly Demand zone
- Buy Soybean from Monthly Demand Zone until Monthly Supply Zone
SOYBN/USD LongSOYBN/USD Long
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
A position trade on the daily chart of Soybeans CASH/FUTURES ZSFBasis the Kondratieff cycle position we are currently in the summer season (The season of high inflation) which means higher commodity prices. If the preceding Kondratieff cycle is used as a reference or analog we will realize that during the early portions of the summer season agricultural prices advanced the most up to a point (1973) which was then followed by a bull market in precious metals after a relatively minor bear market. For now the structure on agriculture is quite clear for the coming year or two. We see the main trend as up with significant resistance at the all time high which marks the top end of a range that we have been in since the 2008 high was realized. I believe that we are now in intermediate degree wave one of primary wave 3. I hypothesize that minor wave 3 has begun as of the lows experienced on the 28th of June. We are likely to continue on higher from current levels to test the all time high experienced on Soybeans CASH and Soybeans futures.
$SOYBEANS - Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutJust a clean setup:
1. Textbook symmetrical triangle pattern.
2. Breakout below the lower side of the triangle.
3. Price trading below the key EMA
4. Upcoming areas where the bulls are expected, as highlighted.
5. Wait for candle closure for confirmation.
6. Remember that no one holds a crystal ball. The future is unknown, reality is too complex. This is why despite all the efforts to stack teh odds on your side as a trader, properly managing risk is your number one priority at all times. The name of the games is "staying alive to benefit from long term exposure to good odds and luck.""
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Back Tested, Quantified Trading Strategies & Studies
SOYBN/USD ShortPositive Confluence Factors... (12)
1. LTF and HTF direction in alignment? ✅
2. At edge of HTF structure (in green zone)?
3. HTF candlestick confirmation? ✅
4. Trade setup visible on multiple time frames? ✅
5. Break out of structure and a break back in present?
6. Near miss present (below price if looking to get short, or above price if looking to get long)? ✅
7. Reliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)? ✅
8. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of proportionate to preceding impulse? ✅
9. M style pattern present?
10. Structural approach to area of value?
11. Fairly flat structure present? ✅
12. Expanding pattern present? ✅
13. Equal spacing present?
14. Clearly identifiable middle section present? ✅
15. Head and shoulders pattern present? ✅
16. Decent R:R available? ✅
17. No hook point sat just beyond stop loss?
18. Protection available for your stop loss? ✅
Negative Confluence Factors... (2)
1. Counter to HTF trend?
2. Not at edge of HTF structure (in red zone)?
3. Trade setup only visible on one time frame?
4. Price only wicked to area of value on multiple time frames?
5. Near miss present (above price if looking to get short, or below price if looking to get long)? ❌
6. Unreliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)?
7. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of disproportionate to preceding impulse?
8. Squeeze present (structure not parallel or expanding)?
9. Fairly steep structure present?
10. Very unequal spacing present?
11. No clearly identifiable middle section present?
12. Excessively voluminous middle section present?
13. Limited R:R available?
14. Hook point sat just beyond stop loss? ❌
15. Entry around swap hours?
16. Entry directly before major news announcement?
SOYBN/USD ShortPositive Confluence Factors... (12)
1. LTF and HTF direction in alignment? ✅
2. At edge of HTF structure (in green zone)?
3. HTF candlestick confirmation? ✅
4. Trade setup visible on multiple time frames? ✅
5. Break out of structure and a break back in present?
6. Near miss present (below price if looking to get short, or above price if looking to get long)? ✅
7. Reliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)? ✅
8. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of proportionate to preceding impulse? ✅
9. M style pattern present?
10. Structural approach to area of value?
11. Fairly flat structure present? ✅
12. Expanding pattern present? ✅
13. Equal spacing present?
14. Clearly identifiable middle section present? ✅
15. Head and shoulders pattern present? ✅
16. Decent R:R available? ✅
17. No hook point sat just beyond stop loss?
18. Protection available for your stop loss? ✅
Negative Confluence Factors... (2)
1. Counter to HTF trend?
2. Not at edge of HTF structure (in red zone)?
3. Trade setup only visible on one time frame?
4. Price only wicked to area of value on multiple time frames?
5. Near miss present (above price if looking to get short, or below price if looking to get long)? ❌
6. Unreliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)?
7. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of disproportionate to preceding impulse?
8. Squeeze present (structure not parallel or expanding)?
9. Fairly steep structure present?
10. Very unequal spacing present?
11. No clearly identifiable middle section present?
12. Excessively voluminous middle section present?
13. Limited R:R available?
14. Hook point sat just beyond stop loss? ❌
15. Entry around swap hours?
16. Entry directly before major news announcement?
The Basics of MACD: An Introduction to the IndicatorThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is one of the most popular technical analysis tools in use by traders today. It is a momentum indicator that helps traders to identify changes in the strength, direction, and momentum of a security's price action. The MACD indicator is widely used in technical analysis and can be applied to all asset classes, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. In this blog post, we will cover the basics of the MACD indicator, including how it is calculated and its basic interpretation.
The MACD Indicator Calculation
The MACD indicator is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The result is a line that oscillates above and below the zero line. This line is known as the MACD line.
The 9-period EMA is then plotted on top of the MACD line. This line is known as the signal line. The MACD histogram is created by subtracting the signal line from the MACD line. The MACD histogram fluctuates above and below the zero line and provides an indication of the momentum of the price action.
The MACD Interpretation
The MACD indicator provides traders with several signals to assist in their trading decisions. The most common signals are the MACD line crossover signal, the signal line crossover signal, and the divergence signal.
The MACD Line Crossover Signal
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is turning positive, and traders may want to consider buying the security. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is considered a bearish signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is turning negative, and traders may want to consider selling the security.
The Signal Line Crossover Signal
Another common signal generated by the MACD indicator is the signal line crossover signal. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish signal. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is considered a bearish signal.
The Divergence Signal
The MACD indicator can also provide traders with a divergence signal. This signal occurs when the MACD histogram diverges from the price action. If the price action is making higher highs, but the MACD histogram is making lower highs, it is considered a bearish divergence signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is weakening, and traders may want to consider selling the security. Conversely, if the price action is making lower lows, but the MACD histogram is making higher lows, it is considered a bullish divergence signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is strengthening, and traders may want to consider buying the security.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify changes in the strength, direction, and momentum of a security's price action. The MACD indicator is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA, and the result is a line that oscillates above and below the zero line. The MACD indicator provides traders with several signals to assist in their trading decisions, including the MACD line crossover signal, the signal line crossover signal, and the divergence signal. It is important to note that the MACD indicator is just one tool that traders can use to analyze the markets, and it should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as trendlines, moving averages, and support and resistance levels. Additionally, traders should use proper risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, to manage their trades and protect themselves against potential losses.
Traders should also be aware that the MACD indicator is not infallible and can generate false signals, particularly in choppy or sideways markets. Therefore, it is important to confirm MACD signals with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis, such as news events and economic data. Additionally, traders should always be cognizant of the overall trend of the asset they are trading and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, the MACD indicator is a versatile and widely used tool in technical analysis. By understanding its calculation and interpretation, traders can use it to identify potential entry and exit points in the markets. However, traders should use the MACD indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and practice proper risk management techniques to improve their trading success.
SOYBN/USD LongPositive Confluence Factors... (13)
1. LTF and HTF direction in alignment? ✅
2. At edge of HTF structure (in green zone)?
3. HTF candlestick confirmation?
4. Trade setup visible on multiple time frames? ✅
5. Break out of structure and a break back in present? ✅
6. Near miss present (below price if looking to get short, or above price if looking to get long)? ✅
7. Reliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)? ✅
8. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of proportionate to preceding impulse? ✅
9. M style pattern present? ✅
10. Structural approach to area of value?
11. Fairly flat structure present? ✅
12. Expanding pattern present? ✅
13. Equal spacing present?
14. Clearly identifiable middle section present? ✅
15. Head and shoulders pattern present?
16. Decent R:R available? ✅
17. No hook point sat just beyond stop loss? ✅
18. Protection available for your stop loss? ✅
Negative Confluence Factors... (1)
1. Counter to HTF trend?
2. Not at edge of HTF structure (in red zone)?
3. Trade setup only visible on one time frame?
4. Price only wicked to area of value on multiple time frames? ❌
5. Near miss present (above price if looking to get short, or below price if looking to get long)?
6. Unreliable looking sequence of flags present (if looking for further continuation)?
7. Correction/s I'm looking to get long or short within and/or on the break of disproportionate to preceding impulse?
8. Squeeze present (structure not parallel or expanding)?
9. Fairly steep structure present?
10. Very unequal spacing present?
11. No clearly identifiable middle section present?
12. Excessively voluminous middle section present?
13. Multiple possible entry types?
14. Limited R:R available?
15. Hook point sat just beyond stop loss?
16. Entry around swap hours?
17. Entry directly before major news announcement?
last line of support 🥵Break of this trend support zone/1426 and we see big push lower, bounce here and we test 1517-1692 in near future.
boost and follow for more 💛
SOY should break long trigger soon 🎃on the break of 1612 I expect a quick push to 1749, boost and follow for more 💪
Soy Bean (The Future is Bright?)View On Soy Bean (26 Jan 2023)
What a lovely Bullish Price action we had.
It also have a strong monthly swing level (1450~1470) to boost.
I am expecting the price of Soybean is to go UP further.
The momentum will pick up stronger once the price has broken up 1510 region.
Le't find out.
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Soybeans Channeling Higher Towards 1800The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The commodity Soybeans appears to have found some support around the 1350 price level. The commodity is in a trend channel higher and once that trend channel holds, could rally towards 1800 over the next couple of months. This view will be negated if Soybeans fall below 1420.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators are aligned to this view. Soybean’s Supertrend has been in a buy mode since the end of October 2022. The commodity has been above its respective Moving Average, the 50-Day MA, since November 1st, 2022. The Awesome Oscillator is above 0 and green while the RSI is above 50 and increasing.
The intra-day trend following indicators of the Soybeans also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. Short to medium term support is seen around the 1425.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 1420 and a target of 1800. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 2.45.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
At the time of writing, I have exposure to Soybean futures.
SOYBN/USD Short• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our middle rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SOYBN/USD Short
• If price corrects and a larger three touch one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
multiple trend resistance areas broken 👈nice consolidation after trends were broken, I think once it breaks 1500 round number resistance, we can see push to all 52w highs
drop boost and follow if you enjoyed :)
September Commodity Trading at a GlanceSummary of the last September WASDE Report:
***WHEAT***
– U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month
– Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased as higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones
***CORN***
– U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol as on reductions to harvested area and yield
– Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia. China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall
***RICE***
– U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies. Lowest U.S. rice production since 1993/94
– global outlook is for lower supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and lower stocks.
***SOYBEANS***
– US Soybean production is projected down with lower harvested area and yield. Higher cottonseed production.
– Worldwide, Ukraine’s soybean production is raised on higher area. China soybean imports for 2022/23 are lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are down mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks. EU soybean imports are lowered with higher supplies of other oilseeds.
***SUGAR***
– U.S. sugar stocks are reduced as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced.
***LIVESTOCK***
– Beef production is raised for the second half of the year with higher expected slaughter for the period. Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged.
***COTTON***
– U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks this month.
– The 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption.
PRIMARY ANALYSISThe current square PQRS is a 1008 X 1008 units sides
Origin is from the low in 2019
Price axis is measured from the 2019 low 790.65
Time is measured in trading days
The cycle has a typical ending diagonal as in Elliot's wave pattern
Trade with care, good luck
SOYBEANS $SOYBEANS High-risk Initial Short SOYBEANS $SOYBEANS High-risk Initial Short . SL and TP on chart. 10-30x leverage. Move SL on TP.
SOYBEAN Can Push Higher, Watch for bullish development
Hello traders:
Also have SOYBEAN on watch from the commodity market.
We can see from the HTF:
Price is potentially forming a continuation correction after the previous bullish impulse phase up.
On the lower time frame, we can see the bullish continuation correction a bit more clear. With a few swing highs and lows, price made a descending channel and correct the price down to the last swing lows.
Latest development shown a lower time frame impulse up from the descending channel, and formed more continuation correction.
Expect the price to continue higher, and possible breakout of the larger correction, and more continuations to form to impulse up on the higher time frame.
Thank you
