Not bottom if no market haltWe haven’t seen anything yet, it may go back up a little due to dead cat bounce buying but if there is no market halt, I don’t see anyone even contemplating wasting good money buying long yet.
SP500 trade ideas
Two ideas.With the recent price fall, it gives us two Elliott waves ideas.
An ending diagonal, which should take the price down to the $4800/ $4500 level, in a Wave 4. Then a muted Wave 5, which would complete the big wave pattern.
Or this drop is a C wave in an expanding flat pattern. This is a dramatic pattern, which should take the price down to the $3650- $3227 range, and very quickly, before the bull market continues.
Absolute craziness ! SP500 retesting 6k and SHORTHello fellow traders
This idea is mainly based on an assumption this craziness can't go any longer! Look at RSI, the divergency overheated level tested, price channel?? Early recession signs, AI bubble, etc
Please protect your capital, have a SL which won't cause you sleepless nights :D
This is just an idea not a trading advise! Good luck anyone who's with me
Markets hate tariffs but traders love discounts
SPX500 is down over 12.2% YTD
Volatility Index (VIX) is above 40 — elevated fear in the market
SPX support zone likely around 4,888
Historical patterns show strong rebounds near similar volatility spikes
This could be a prime entry point — keep your cash ready
With tariffs back in play, volatility could spike — stay ready for discounted entries
SP500 Plunges 8% in a day!! Oversold or more pain ahead?The SP500 has suffered a massive 8% drop, currently trading around 5158 at the moment, after market turmoil triggered by Trump's new tariff war. Panic selling has pushed the 30-minute RSIto an extreme oversold level of around 28, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Short-Term Bounce? The RSI suggests a possible technical rebound, with key resistance around 5200-5250 if buyers step in. Watch for volume confirmation.
🔹 Further Downside? If panic continues, the next major support lies at 5100, followed by 5000 psychological level, where institutional buyers might defend price.
⚠️ Caution: Markets remain highly volatile! A dead-cat bounce is possible, but uncertainty surrounding tariffs could fuel more downside pressure. Stay sharp!
📊 What’s Your Take? Will SP500 recover or break lower? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
#SP500 #StockMarketCrash #Tariffs #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI
Recovery or Pain?Will this be the infliction point or breaking point? Here we have multiple points of importance. Will this be a bounce or a crash?
S&P 500 Crash Idea / Opportunity Cumulation PeriodIf we are lucky, there will be three levels and three opportunities. I am also waiting to see if this really happens and we see a market crash and the SPY go down about 35-40% from its all-time high. We were heavily getting the Tesla options one year prior.
Your daily DON'T PANIC reminderHi fellow traders.
This is your daily reminder not to panic. STICK to your strategy.
We're on the elevator down, but WE WILL climb the stairs back up. zoom out on an S&P or Nasdaq chart. STONKS GO UP. It hurts now, but this is also the time to accumulate stocks you have always wanted.
Look for the levels. Don't panic. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY!
Are These the Three Black Crows Signaling More Pain Ahead? The S&P 500 has just printed three consecutive long-bodied red candles following a brief uptrend. This classic "Three Black Crows" formation could be a powerful bearish reversal signal—one that historically hints at a deeper correction on the horizon.
📊 What does this pattern mean?
Appears after an uptrend or rally.
Consists of 3 bearish candles closing near their lows.
Suggests strong seller control and trend reversal potential.
🔍 Current context:
The S&P is already under heavy pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.
This pattern adds further bearish sentiment, especially if we see continued follow-through on volume.
🚨 If confirmed, we could be looking at the continuation of a larger downtrend. But remember: confirmation is key. Watch closely how price reacts in the next 1–2 sessions.
🧠 Do you see this as a real warning—or just a pause before the next leg up?
#SP500 #ThreeBlackCrows #CandlestickPatterns #BearishSignal #TechnicalAnalysis
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun.
This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters.
In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control.
Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP.
The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars.
Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess.
Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods.
Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes.
Inelastic - where they a don't change much.
Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come.
So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514.
'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thoughts?
SPX 10% in 48hrsSometimes a good trade is no trade in itself. That being said.
Historically RARE we don't get a relief rally but we need the fed.
The market will look for the Fed to provide answers.
+
Fear and Greed index
Technicals oversold
VIX
Money rotation showing signs of a turn.
XLY/XLP at the back end of January shows weakening of the US consumer.
Trump single handedly started a worldwide recession- of course, economic recessions and a stock market correction/crash are two very different things but in this case it does seem like both are probably connected seeing tariff implementations against basically the entire world are hardly productive in an economic sense
- with March´s close, the 3M candle closed as a BEARISH engulfing
- SPX to fall at least to the 600 level but even a scenario such as a year to two year long bear market should not be excluded
In addition, there is a REAL RISK of China expediting its process of unification with Taiwan and could use the overall macro uncertainty as a veil under which it may attack the island sooner rather than in 2027 or 2028.
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?
S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis;
This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally.
Let me explain now;
5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear.
In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’.
From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation.
Now comes the week of 1 May.
- FED's interest rate decision,
- Trump's budget plan,
- And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced.
While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’.
Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons .
I would also like to ask you here;
What will greet the market when this date comes?
Harsh interest rate rhetoric?
Trump's aggressive economic agenda?
Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability.
Most Affected Companies and Sectors
- Technology and Semiconductors
• Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains.
• Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs.
• Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty.
- Automotive and Aerospace
• Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing.
• Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers.
- Industrials and Conglomerates
• General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies.
- Transportation & Logistics
• AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures.
- Energy
• Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets.
- Financial Sector
• Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region.
• Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment.
S&P500 Analysis
Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points.
This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session.
Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”.
A Global Landscape of Uncertainty
Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities).
Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
This is just the appetizerIf you think a 4% drop is the end, think again. Save your cash unless you want to short the market. We haven’t seen real action such as a market halt or two before it is time to think about putting cash into action. Be warned
US500 CHANNELHello friends
Given that the price is in an ascending channel, now that we have a strong wave to the channel ceiling, we have corrected the price by 50%, after which we can expect the price to succeed in hitting a higher ceiling again.
*Trade safely with us*
Bottom is close, what's next?We can flush down tomorrow but according to cycles, the bottom should be very soon - maybe tomorrow. We look at possible bounce targets.
S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500.
Bearish Channel
Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions.
Divergence in Indicators
MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence.
RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone.
These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions.
Key Levels:
5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel.
5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves.
5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies.
Protectionist Foundations and Scope
Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained".
What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration.
Specific Tariff Examples
The parallel implementation approaches are notable:
Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025
Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods
Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20%
Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922)
Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences
Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners:
China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines
Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods
The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products
Expert Opposition
Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act.
Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet...
Potential Economic Impact
The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system".
These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today.
Stock market Impact
Just watch the graph..
--
Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SPX On Verge Of A Bearish Decent - Weekly ViewThe S&P 500 is pointing at a long descent downwards based upon simple technical analysis. To further bolster our projection of the market it is no secret the recent trade wars are going to have a major negative impact upon the US & world economy for obvious reasons. With this in mind we can paint a clear picture of where price action is going to head. The question remains where do we enter short?
As we can see in our chart we have broke the current upwards bullish weekly trend line #2. Price action has quickly took a swing downwards to our second trend line #1. In short trend lines simply put are the bottom lows of a bullish market. We can clearly define these trend lines over a long period of time where price action has risen, declined, and then continued its current trend upwards. By marking three bottom or more bottoms lows in a bullish market we can project bottom prices of where price action should never cross below. So what happens when price crosses below these said trend lines? Easy, price action will decrease. This is the case on our chart viewing for trend #2.
As for where price action will continue downwards and stop we can simply view the past history of the market to determine this. Viewing trend line #1 we can see this was the bottom start of the bullish market was 2023 Oct on the weekly chart. Price action has increased aprox. 48 percent with no more than a 8.5 percent in the summer of 2024. That is until our King Donny Trump entered office. From the top of last peak in this bullish cycle SPX has fallen roughly 6.5 percent. Price has clearly broken trend line #2 and is now testing the resistance of price at trend line #1. If price shall break the trend line #2 we will easily fall into our support zone #1. Support zones are nothing more than where price action consolidated sideways for a period of time. These zones are like magnets. Price almost always 'pulls' towards these zones as it is a proven history of the market resistance and support.
The earning moving average(EMA) of the SPX is even more concerning. The red(10 day), blue(21 day), yellow(50day) are the thin lines just below the candles in the chart. The EMA is exactly what it sounds like. The past earning moving average over the past 'x' amount of days. Viewing the EMA data allows you see if the price average is above, on par, or below 'x' amount of past days. This is very important key metric to determine the average market price over a period of time as you can imagine. Even more so important is when price declines below the EMA line. Price going below a 50, 100, or 200 day moving average are levels we want to watch. Currently price action has bounced right off the 50 day EMA. No surprise as this is a very important resistance level day traders will buy only to sell off shortly after. Crossing below the 50 day(yellow line) is known as the 'death cross' for a reason. If price crosses below it we can certainly count on a decline in price action into support zone #1 with easy.
