Get started
S&P 500S&P 500S&P 500

S&P 500

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

SP500 trade ideas

SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade (Continuation)This is a continuation to my previously posted trade... Unfortunately I stopped out on the previous trade. That's my fault. There's additional analysis I did that helped me understand where I missed. However, the pattern is still very much in tact and the opportunity still exists. Here's a summary of what I go through in the video, but most important is watch the video to get the full details to better understand the observations. 1hr Chart: After reviewing the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr, 5min, 1min charts I recognized the most important indicator for the current prices is the 1hr chart and most important the 50MA crossing down on the 200MA. In addition, there are additional indicators that currently and historically are most important for this setup. Here are the 5 mentioned in the video. - H&S Pattern/Triple Top/Divergence initial formation - Cross down on Strong Support Line - Retest/Fail Strong Support Line - A wave up/down, forming a downward trendline - QQE Signal triggering short as it approaches the channel support line towards a break Historically there have been 4 instances since 2022 when the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA on the 1hr chart July 26, 2024 - -5.0% in 48 bars (5-6 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Apr 15, 2024 - -3.70% 35 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Aug 10. 2023 - -3.75% 40 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Feb 24. 2023 - -5.8% 75 bars (10 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move As mentioned in the video, it has been 7 trading days since the current cross of the 50MA of the 200MA, however, it's unique that the cross took place during the low volume holiday trading period which may have an effect on timing compared to historical moves. Please watch the video for more in depth insight into the historical pattern formations and the relationship to the current price action along with my prediction and trade potential. Fundamental Support: Is still intact from the prior trade - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 (325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position. However, I went back and reviewed previous employment reports and market movements, and basically whatever the trend the market was in at the time of publication, it continued to move in, so I'm not overly concerned. - Next week PPI and CPI will be published on Tues Jan 14th and Wed Jan 15th respectively. These are both potential movers if they were to come in lower/higher, as it may impact the % chance of FED cuts. - Trump inauguration on Monday Jan 20th, also falling on Martin Luther King Day (Markets Closed). I would anticipate potential positive market reaction following his inauguration given the pro-business policies and potential rally, so this is a risk. Overall: If you've watched the video, you can see that the chart patterns historically match up very well to the current. Again, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. There's no sure thing in this business, however, considering all the factors, I find this to be a solid technical and fundamental trade and given the dominos fall in line I will be taking a position. Current Position: I currently have not taken a position on this trade. I am waiting for the QQE Short signal as mentioned in the video, or any other relevant move to give me the green light. However, here's what I'm looking for if all goes to plan...I will update in the notes if/when I take a position. SPXS Call Options Strike $6.00 Expiration Jan 24th, based on the estimated timeframe mentioned in the video Option Price: Ideally .20-.30 Options: 50-100 depending on my confidence in the chart and price above Stop: 1/2 my entry price Target: Given SPXS is 3x Bear the S&P...I estimate the first target range is $6.75-$6.90 which would be reaching the previous ATH of S&P of 5675 Option Price Est. $.85-$1.00 Approx: 3:1 - 5:1 Profit Loss Ratio The full target range would be between $7.00-$7.25 which would be reaching the H&S Target 5630 or 200 Day Moving Average 5577 Option Price Est. $1.00-$1.50 Approx. 3.3:1 - 7.5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
SP:SPXShort
by jaytmarquardt
2
SPX JAN 7 2025| READ DESCRIPTION |Here we need to understand the power of money & risk management.If it goes to 6200 from here then our RR is just 1: 1.08 . The RR is the heart & soul of a trade. One should be discplined enought to understand this & if you are not getting minimum 1:2 & I have used the word minimum, then there is no point taking that particular trade. You need to think what if a trade goes against me? Always be open to both sides understanding the RR If you are not following RR & rules then this business will eat all your wealth You mind is actually the most powerful thing in the world.
SP:SPX
by THECHAARTIST
33
SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade SP:SPX Here's the details of my trade Short on SPX.... Daily Chart: - Rising Wedge Pattern - Strong Break of Support Line (Fed Announcement Dec 18th) - Retest of the Support Line - Break back down from the Support Line and below 50 day moving average - Divergence on the RSI Fundamental Support: - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 ($325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position if employment figures are positive - However, inadvertently, higher employment figures will reduce the likelihood of FED rate cuts, offsetting some of the upside potential Target: - Previous ATH at 5674 ~-4.5% from current price - Stop: A break back above the support line - Historic market breakdowns (ie Jan 2022, Aug 2024) typically the initial move took 4-9 trading days with potential for up to 10% breakdown before recovery Risks: - Return to normal trading volumes post-holiday could result in continued buying - Trump inauguration could trigger a wave of bullishness - Big news in any of the Mag 7 stocks Overall: The chart patterns and fundamental data not only support a greater chance of a short term move to the downside, but greatly increase the chance of further decline. At this point, the market is in a potential transition and more data and chart movements need to play out before determining if a bear market is underway. My Position: 30 Call Options in SPXS (3x Bear SPX ETF) $6 Strike, Current Price $6.20 Expiration Friday Jan 10th. Average Price is .20 a contract Investment $600 Target $1.00-$1.50 (8-13:1 Profit Loss Ratio) Stop .10 Potential Loss $300 Potential Gain $2400-$3900
SP:SPXShort
by jaytmarquardt
S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025. In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after. As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period. The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
11 Things i have learned in almost 20 years of trading1. Hi expectations will boost your motivation, but it will kill your dreams - It is totally OK to dream big, and fight for your goals, but then what you will do when your dream seems impossible or hard to reach to? You will most likely get mad, and fight left and right for it, even the markets for your dreams. You will be the only person staying between you and your dreams. - The solution is to focus on small steps, like on daily targets. 2. Undercapitalization. You cannot hope to make a living from trading, if you do not have enough money in your trading account. - Depends on the living standards of your country, If you need to make 1000USD to pay bills, then I will recommend a 20.000USD account, because hopping for 5% monthly, is the most realistic profit percentage you can expect for long term. And I need you to understand my long term view, because you might have a good month with 15% or more, and then wipe your account after 6 months or 1 year. - Off course there is the solution that you can apply for a PropFirm, but their rules might put pressure on you, because their interest is that you loose money. Please do not trust my work, do some research yourself and see what is the business model of a PropFirm. 3. Market Patterns do not need to be true just because it was repeated at one point in the past. - You learn about all type of rules, and patterns that the price should do just because it did something similar at one point in the past. No, that is verry wrong. The price pattern will repeat under similar conditions, but not under all conditions. - The solution is to have a plan B, and don't trust that the market needs to act as you want. Please remember that for you in order to buy an asset, someone else needs to sell it to you, so it is your opinion, against him. While you see a break under a double top, and you want to enter short, someone else will sell to you, thinking the that it might be a false break, hoping the price will go up. 4. Invest in yourself. Nobody is going to do the job for you, better than yourself. - I don’t like when people are so lazy, that they want to copy trades from other people. If you do that, you should not call yourself a trader. - Ok, I understand that as a beginner, you might say the an experienced trader, knows better what will happen next. No, nobody knows, I trader for almost 20 years, and the only reason ‘’I am not wrong’’ is because I do not expect to be wright. 5. Keep it simple. Each indicator has its own probability that one event will happen in certain circumstances. - This means that the more indicators you add, the more variables you gill get in your analysis and you will get confused. 6. There is no certainty in the market. At any given point or tick in the market, the probability that the price will go either way, up or down is 50%. - The sequence of how that happens is, can be different, like 70-30, 10-90, etc. To make it easier to understand, every time you put a trade, with every think, the market can change. How many times the price has missed your TP or SL and when the other way? 7. Do not trade to get rich. Getting rich is different from one person to another. - But, if you start trading because you see some posts, advertisings, or so called traders posting from Dubai or Lamborghini, then you are doomed. - It is verry difficult to increase your starting capital, lets say 10.000USD, to 500.000USD, having to pay the bills, food and other expenses. So do not fall for that. 8. Don't hope for financial independence to soon - Any profession has a certain period of years for preparation, either you are a doctor or a lawyer, or maybe a child that want to become a professional football player…he will need many years of hard work, and still, he might not get it to the professional league. - Trading also requires allot of years to master the charts, but more important to get to understand or to fully know yourself. Beside knowing if swing trading or scalping is what suits you, you need to understand your reactions to loosing trades, winning trades, your feelings and emotions and much more. 9. Keep a job. You cannot worry about paying the bills, ‘’putting food on the table’’ That is a stress you do not need. - Can you imagine how hard it will be to think that with every SL you get hit, the more likely you are not to pay your rent? Please, if you are a beginner, keep at least a part time job, and try to manage your time wisely. 10. Trust the compound interest because it will pay long term. - Lets take the following scenario for 10 years and 5% every month profit for a deposit of 10.000USD. Please remember that Investment funds will be very happy with a 60% win. YEAR 1 - This means a 60% or 6.000USD profit this year and 16.000USD for next year YEAR 2 - Now you have 5% but from 16.000USD, it means 800USD every month, or 9600 by year end. At the end of second year you will have 25.600USD YEAR 3 – You will make 5% monthly from 25.600USD or 1280USD. At the end of the year you will have a profit of 15.360USD, added to your last year balance of 25.600. At this point your account will worth 40.960USD Year 4 – 5% monthly or 2.046USD, The profit at the year end 24.552USD. Total trading account 65.512USD YEAR 5 – 3.275USD Monthly or 39.300USD. End of the year trading account 104.812 - At the end of year 5, of consecutive winning years, you can consider quitting your job - YEAR 6 – 5240USD monthly – 62880 Year end – 167.692USD YEAR 6 – 8384USD monthly – 100.608 Year end – 268.300USD YEAR 7 – 13415 Monthly – 160.980 Year end – 429.280USD YEAR 8 – 21464 Monthly – 257.568 Year end – 686.848USD YEAR 9 – 34342 Monthly – 412.104 Year End- 1.098.952USD Now you are a millionaire 😊 This means that if you keep repeating for the next 10 years, you will have 100 mil YEAR 10 – 54947 Monthly – 659.364 Year end – 1.758.316USD 11. Time Management and Money Management – We hear allot of Money Management, or Risk Management, but you do not find that much about time management, and I don’t understand why people don’t put more weight on it. - One of the reason that I did not posted on social platforms that consistent, is that my priorities in terms of Time Management, did not allowed me to spend time doing that. My priority is always my family, myself and my jobs from which I can provide for them. - Lets say you have your MM saying that you need to stop after 3 consecutive looses. But what if those happens in 30 minutes? You are going to feel useless for the rest of the day, and allot of frustration will build up. - As a short example, you need to have those 3 loses during a 4 or 6 hour trading session. Also, try spend learning, find ways to make you feel productive other than just open trades. I hope this can help you getting some type of good perspective. Good luck!
SP:SPXEducation
by MariusStanescu
Why You Shouldn't Be a Trader: The Emotional RollercoasterEver thought about diving into trading? Here's the honest truth from someone who's been there. I used to think trading was all about numbers and charts, but boy, was I wrong. It's more like riding an emotional rollercoaster that can make you feel like you've aged years in a single day. Imagine this: one day you're on top of the world, feeling like you've finally figured it out, and the next, you're down in the dumps, rethinking your entire life. Here's the deal: -Heart-Stopping Volatility: The market's ups and downs can turn your emotions upside down. One second you're ecstatic with a win; the next, you're in despair over a loss. -No Off Switch: Unlike most jobs, there's no "clocking out" with trading. Your mind never really stops, even when you're supposed to be chilling. -The Lonely Trader's Path: It can feel like you're on this journey alone, with no one to share the load or celebrate the victories with. But here's the twist - I've learned how to navigate this wild ride. With a bit of community and some laughs, trading doesn't have to be a solo act. If you're feeling the weight of this rollercoaster or just curious about how to keep your emotions in check, why not hit me up? Drop me a DM or check out my profile for more on how we can tackle this together. Give this post a boost, a like, or leave a comment if you've felt the same way. Let's share the journey, not just the journey's lows. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
SP:SPXEducation
by Mindbloome-Trading
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 01.07.2025🔮 📅 Tue Jan 7 ⏰ 10:00am 📈 ISM Services PMI: 53.5 (prev: 52.1) 📋 JOLTS Job Openings: 7.73M (prev: 7.74M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: If we gap above here, it’s going to bait a lot of traders by a drop. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A little more upside and then will be faced by some old-fashioned bearishness. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Will cause a chop as people try hedging slightly but keep an upside thesis as people hedge extremely fast. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
US500 LONG US 500 Bullish!! Hey everyone! The US 500 is looking strong right now: • Momentum: We’re in a clear bullish upswing. • Indicators: CMO and CMF have both crossed, confirming money and capital inflows. RSI is above 50 on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. • Breakout: We’ve hit a new high on the 1-hour timeframe and crossed above the 20 SMA—another positive sign. • Daily Bias: We remain above the Ichimoku Cloud, and major SMAs are pointing upward, supporting the larger bullish trend. We’ll be taking a bullish entry soon as this momentum continues. Stay tuned for the exact entry levels!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
S&P 500 Price Outlook: Key Levels and Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Analysis The price has bullish momentum and is likely to reach 6022. If it stabilizes above this level, it may rise further to 6099, especially if it breaches the descending trendline. If the price stabilizes below 6022, it will likely consolidate between 6022 and 5969 until a breakout occurs. A break below 5937 could signal the start of a bearish trend. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5987 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6060 Support Levels: 5969, 5937, 5896
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SPX: still in a Holiday moodThe sentiment from the last week of December, was holding on the market also in the first trading week of 2025. There were both days with a positive and negative sentiment. For the second week in a row, the market was trading in a negative mood during the week, ending with Friday's positive shift to the upside. The S&P 500 reached its lowest weekly level at 5.837, at the same level as two weeks ago, and then reverted back toward the 5.944 on Friday. Tech stock companies were the ones that spotted investors' attention on Friday. The market favourite Nvidia jumped by 4,7% and Super Micro Computers was traded higher by 10,9%. Analysts were noting that spending on AI and chips would certainly bring AI related companies to the higher grounds in 2025. Microsoft already announced plans to invest $80 billion on AI-enabled centres this year, which supported investors' interest for stock within the AI and AI-chips industry. These trends are likely to continue through 2025 also with other companies within the tech industry.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.6.2024🔮 📣 Corporate News: 💻 Nvidia CEO's CES Keynote (Mon) on AI & Semiconductor Tech 🗓️ Schedule Note: Markets Closed Thu 🇺🇸 in honor of former President Jimmy Carter 📅 Tue Jan 7 ⏰ 10:00am 📈 ISM Services PMI: 53.2 (prev: 52.1) 📋 JOLTS Job Openings: 7.77M (prev: 7.74M) 📅 Wed Jan 8 ⏰ 8:15am 🧑‍🌾 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 131K (prev: 146K) ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 211K) ⏰ 2:00pm 📜 FOMC Meeting Minutes 📅 Fri Jan 10 ⏰ 8:30am 💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%) 👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 154K (prev: 227K) 📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%) #ces #trading #foryou #shorts #stockmarket #finance #daily NASDAQ:NVDA
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan