Still Vulnerable Here...I'd be cautious in calling a bottom. The major indices all show potential bear flags in the daily chart.
SP500 trade ideas
Will the spring & summer of 2025 conclude our retrace in minor BIn the interest of full disclosure we have not even confirmed our minor A has in fact bottomed...but assuming we have struck a short term bottom, we are now embarking on a minor B wave retrace that I anticipate taking us into the start of summer.
In any respect, I am viewing this as only a counter trend rally with a scary (c) of C of (A) to come into the low SPX 5,000 region eventually. There everything gets decided for the long-term.
Be careful out there.
Chris
S&P500 INTRADAY awaits Fed’s decision and press conferenceThe US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and release the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT.
Recent weak economic data from the US, along with new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, have raised concerns about a possible recession. Despite this, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) could provide important insights into the Fed’s future plans. However, the stock market remains wary that the Fed might not take a dovish enough stance. Inflation remains high, and tariffs could push prices even higher, making the central bank cautious about easing policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5714
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5387
Support Level 3: 5254
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$SPX - Trading Levels for March 19 2025
Today’s Trading Range
The Down-gap from yesterday is near the top of the implied move and the down gap from last week is at the top of the trading range with the big moving averages. With the 30min 200 coming down.
The 200DMA still has a little big of momentum in.
At the bottom to the implied move for the next two days there’s an up gap from last Friday.
The Blue Dashed line is a trendline -you can see it on the 1D timeframe - underneath.
I’m excited. Let’s go.
S&P500/Macro end of Cycle: 2027This chart shows the cyclical nature of the global economy, S&P500.
There is a clear correlation between a Bull supercycle and a 50% correction afterwards, which lasts for half the period of the supercycle.
First SuperCycle had a 27 years long growth, then 13.5 years correction.
Second SuperCycle had 18 years long growth and 9 years long correction.
Current SuperCycle ends in 2027 technically.
It is reasonable to sell your assets in 2026, at least 50% of all your portfolio.
We always & forever aim to the Moon
A prevailing theory suggests that adjustments in the channel trend lines within stock markets signal the advent of a digital currency era—a shift towards monetary systems that no longer rely on benchmarking against the U.S. dollar. From a technical analysis perspective, this evolution is interpreted as a natural progression toward a more digitized financial landscape.
Looking back over the 40-year history of stock markets, one might question the overall state of Western economies. Despite intermittent, minor declines that are often sensationalized by the media, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have quietly continued to reach all-time highs. This persistent upward trend supports economic theories that highlight market resilience and self-correcting mechanisms, even in the face of periodic volatility.
Moreover, there is substantial evidence that the United States has consistently injected liquidity into its financial system to stabilize and sustain growth. This strategy, while potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities, appears to have worked effectively over the past half-century. The practice can be seen as a self-reinforcing mechanism—one that maintains market momentum and may delay or even avert any catastrophic "Great Reset" or systemic collapse.
In contrast, emerging markets like Thailand have experienced prolonged periods of stagnation, with stock prices moving sideways for approximately 15 years. This divergence raises a critical question: why do developed markets benefit from these self-sustaining policies while some emerging markets do not?
Ultimately, if the mechanisms that have driven developed markets continue to function as they historically have, the anticipated dramatic resets or collapses may never materialize. Instead, the upward trajectory—often colloquially described as heading “to the moon”—is likely to persist in markets where these policies are in place.
SPX 5734 today?Having studied volume profile and price geometry I expect SPX to see 5734 today. I am showing trend convergence to confirm my target. Iast two days green bars have been with low volume, show low confidence so it needs to spend some time between 5620 and 5734 if it has to move higher. I also believe 5520 was the bottom, dipping below the long trendline to shake off weak hands. Only if inflation comes in higher in next reading we could break that. Aslo the fact that we have the highest shorts since Aug last year, makes the market bullish
Tight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the TriggerTight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the Trigger | SPX Analysis 19 Mar 2025
Sometimes, doing nothing is the best trade you’ll ever make.
While I was off enjoying my long weekend, SPX’s bullish move got slapped back into the range. Had I jumped in long, I’d probably be hedging or cursing my screen right now.
Now, price is coiling into a bear flag, and with the FOMC circus rolling into town at 2PM, I’m expecting things to stay tight until the fireworks start.
📌 Bullish above 5705.
📌 Bearish below 5605.
📌 Until then, I sit back and let the market make the first move.
Because in this game, you don’t force trades—you wait for the perfect shot.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
Some days, doing nothing is the right trade.
That’s exactly what I did over my long weekend, and it ended up saving me from stepping into a bullish trap. SPX’s move up was short-lived, and now we’re right back in the range—but this time, it’s setting up in an interesting way.
📌 The Setup – Bear Flag + FOMC = Volatility Incoming
SPX has:
Fallen back into the previous range—bulls are losing control.
Coiled into a tight bear flag formation—hinting at a breakdown.
FOMC later today, which could be the match that lights the next move.
📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Show Its Hand
Right now, I have no interest in guessing. Instead, I’m letting the market come to me.
Bullish above 5705? I’ll consider a long setup.
Bearish below 5605? I’ll ride the downside momentum.
Until then, I sit tight.
📌 Bigger Picture – The Waiting Game
FOMC is always a game of patience. Traders try to guess what’s coming, but most end up whipsawed to oblivion.
I won’t be one of them.
If the market confirms my bias, I strike.
If it fakes out, I wait for a better setup.
No stress, no panic—just disciplined execution.
📌 Bottom Line – The Best Trade Is Sometimes No Trade
For now, I’m watching, waiting, and keeping my capital intact.
Because when the market finally makes its real move, I’ll be there, ready to take full advantage.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The longest FOMC meeting in history lasted five days—in 1932, during the Great Depression. Traders were left in limbo, staring at their tickers, waiting for an answer that took 120 hours to arrive.
💡 The Lesson? Waiting for clarity isn’t new—it’s just that today, we get our pain in hours, not days.
US500 StanceThe equal lows from the 4H price action had me thinking. If we look at it from a range perspective, there is still a wide gap left from the 4H change of character, ever since it took the last low of the lower lows, it never gave a single percent to the area's retracement. This might be a daily timeframe FOMO trap. whereby recovery of the market from sells to buys will be pumped to only drop again. In terms of entry. There is a zone with mind for us to consider seeing if it holds. because right now there is some dying triangle pattern towards it. should it delay, but keep showing some sell intent. we will wait for the session to sweep its high and sell it. should it fail, a further analysis will take through
SPX cycle tell me we are in a bear market this yearThe cycles and the crosses are clones, therefore not exact fit.It doesn't look like a correction when I look at the cycles and pattern. I am more convinced that it is going to be a bear market in USA not just on technical but even on fundamentals:
China has just finished a recession and will grow with higher cost of production, unlike 2000-2015. Market and Fed is under illusion that inflation will come down to 2% (Thank chinese cheap goods for that before covid, but not now and going forward). Higher cost of chinese goods and trump tariff are sure to jack up inflation to 4%+ this year in my opinion. People are addicted to low interest rate since 2000's, but historically they ware always higher at 6% mean.
Any rallies would be temporary
the market is in chop modeToday's price action wasn't as bearish as it should have been if we were to keep moving down. 5600 held, and that is significant. Chances are, we will triangle into Powell and then rally briefly to 5750 area to fill the futures gap and test the 200 and 18ma area. if that's the case, we may be in a larger correction period (ABC)
10D Chart shows Falling 3 , Pullback to 3/18!! $SPYAMEX:SPY shows 10D trend very clear. It is my hidden gem. We, by my charting, Should pullback until 3/18 ... not sure how far but I have plenty of targets on the way down to my ultimate target at 5200... I think we could flush to $560.. Good Luck yall. Gems I tell ya... sorry I'm so bad at explaining things..
S&P500: Bottom is in. Strong 5month rally ahead.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.840, MACD = -92.170, ADX = 55.129) as it hasn't crossed above the 4H MA50 or the 1D MA50 yet. Still, it did price the bottom on the HL trendline of its 2year Channel Up. The 4H MACD formed however a new Bullish Cross on the LH trendline, same as the October 31st 2023 HL bottom. As the market did then (October 2023), the 4H Death Cross that took place last week, happened exactly at the bottom and the 0.618 Fibonacci of the previous HL. We are still bullish and our target remains the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900).
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