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SP500 trade ideas

SPX500 Holds Above 6,098 | Bullish Bias Toward ATH at 6,143OANDA:SPX500USD OVERVIEW S&P 500 Futures Subdued After Near-Record Close | Market Eyes Powell’s Comments U.S. stock futures were muted on Wednesday after the S&P 500 closed near an all-time high, following signals from Israel and Iran that their air conflict has ended. Investors now await further comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the monetary policy outlook. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – SPX500 The price remains in a bullish trend as long as it trades above 6,098, with upside potential toward the ATH at 6,143. However, a 1H or 4H candle close below 6,098 would likely trigger a bearish correction toward 6,056 and 6,041. Pivot Level: 6,098 Resistance Levels: 6,143 → 6,175 → 6,210 Support Levels: 6,066 → 6,041
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
2
July 9th EU-US tariff deal, what will happen to S&P500?Timeline & Context -The U.S. initially implemented a 10% baseline tariff on most imports (April 5), with potential spike to 50% for EU goods on July 9 unless a deal is struck. -On June 26, Macron warned that if U.S. keeps a 10% tariff, the EU will impose equivalent retaliatory levies. -EU offer of “zero-for-zero” (Macron, von der Leyen) remains on the table, though Washington reportedly resists. How Markets May React If a 10%–10% deal is struck (U.S. keeps 10%, EU matches): -Markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief—clearing headline risk. -Expect a moderate rally, perhaps +1–3% in the S\&P 500, as tariff uncertainty diminishes. -Economists note past discussion: when the EU delay hit May, S\&P futures jumped ~2%. If they agree to Macron’s “zero-for-zero” proposal: -That would be a bullish surprise—tariffs completely lifted. -Market response could range +3–5%, though EU has indicated U.S. pushback on full zero­zero . -Analysts warn clarity isn’t always calm: the S\&P is already priced above fundamentals—choppy reactions still possible . If the pause lapses with no EU agreement: -U.S. could enforce 50% tariffs; EU likely retaliates. -Risks: recession fears in EU, U.S. inflation spike so stocks will likely fall. -Bank strategists forecast flat S\&P (5,900), but warn of volatility range 5,600–6,000 based on trade policy surprises. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
VANTAGE:SP500
by bossout10
1
S&P 500 Futures Rise on Ceasefire Relief, Eyes on Fed PowellSPX500 OVERVIEW U.S. Futures Rise as Ceasefire Eases Tensions, Focus Turns to Powell U.S. stock futures climbed on Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.8%, extending gains from the previous session as Middle East tensions eased following a ceasefire announcement. President Trump confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which appears to be holding for now—though early signs of potential violations have already emerged. Market attention is now firmly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress today, where traders hope to gain more clarity on the Fed’s economic outlook and rate path. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – SPX500 The price touched resistance at 6,098 and is currently hovering near that level. Failure to break above 6,098 may trigger a short-term correction toward 6,041, before another push higher. A confirmed breakout above 6,098 would open the path toward the All-Time High (ATH) at 6,143, followed by extended targets. Support Levels: 6041 → 6010 → 5966 Resistance Levels: 6143 → 6175 → 6225 Stability above 6,098 confirms bullish continuation, while failure to hold may suggest a temporary pullback before resuming the uptrend.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
4
Risk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment MattersRisk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment Matters More Than Chasing the “Holy Grail” In trading, most participants and analysts are focused on finding the so-called “Holy Grail” — the perfect entry point where the price moves in the desired direction and yields profit. However, few actually assess the risks involved, as if success is possible without factoring them in. Market reviews are often filled with levels, forecasts, and price directions, but rarely include probability estimates or potential losses. In my view, the real Holy Grail isn't a guaranteed profitable entry, but a scenario where the market offers a position with minimal risk relative to historical context. To identify such setups, we need a risk scale based on historical data — how favorable the current risk-to-reward ratio is compared to the past. It’s also crucial to understand that no one can predict price direction with certainty. The key to opening a position is not hope, but evaluating all possible scenarios — upward, downward, or sideways — and knowing the outcome in each case. Risk management is more than just placing a stop-loss; it’s a structured approach that should be central to any trading strategy. What Are Minimal Risks? “Minimal risk” is a relative concept — it only makes sense when measured against a defined scale. Building such a scale requires historical statistics: what were the maximum and minimum losses and profits for similar positions in the past? Profit-to-Loss Ratio The idea behind the search for the “Holy Grail” is to find moments when the market offers the best possible profit-to-risk ratio. For example, if the current ratio is 10, and historically it has ranged from 0 (low risk) to 100 (high risk), then 10 may be a good entry point. If the ratio approaches 80–90, it signals that the position is extremely risky. Why Are Probability and Risk Assessment Important? Market reviews often talk about resistance levels, volatility, and price direction — but rarely address the risks of different scenarios. No expert can predict market movements with certainty — if they could, they’d be billionaires. Opening positions without accounting for risks and scenario probabilities is extremely dangerous. How to Factor in Risks When Entering a Position The key question is: what will the profit-to-loss ratio be after entering a position, depending on whether the price goes up, down, or stays flat? It’s important to understand the consequences of each case and make decisions based on risk assessment. Risk Management Must Account for the Inability to React Instantly Conventional tools like stop-losses and limit orders often fail to protect capital effectively during sudden price spikes. These tools are particularly vulnerable when market makers or high-frequency algorithms trigger stop levels en masse. This highlights the need for more resilient risk management instruments — ones that can respond to volatility instantly and automatically. Options are one such tool, capable of limiting losses regardless of market dynamics. Without robust risk management, long-term profitability becomes statistically unlikely. Sooner or later, the market will present a scenario that can wipe out your capital — unless you’re properly protected. Important note: this is not an endorsement of options or any specific broker. It’s simply a conclusion based on the logic of building effective capital protection. If a broker only provides access to linear instruments (futures, spot, stocks) without the ability to hedge, it will inevitably lead to capital erosion — even for systematic traders. And if this article gets more than 100 rockets, I’ll continue sharing specific examples of low-risk trading assessments.
SP:SPX
by wien6000796
1
SPX short analysisLike I wrote in my EUR/USD analysis you never know what could happened. USA bombed Iran! This could have huge impact on the US market next week. My guess is temporarily short... At least to close this gap in spot price of SPX. Since we're still in bearish market, until we see new highs, and this could be catalyst for another sell off. So the jump could be even bigger and we could see new ATH this year. For now, I'm seeking a position to short tomorrow after market is open. This is my entry mark. There will be higher volatility. However, I expect US market to open in the red, close the gap and to sell off again. We shall see! Trade safe this one :)
SP:SPXShort
by justcoinme
S&P500 Bullish breakout support at 5980A fragile ceasefire is in place between the U.S. and Iran, but both sides are still blaming each other for missile attacks. Tensions remain high, especially as Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium is missing. Markets were shaken—stocks gave back some gains and oil prices dipped after Israel threatened to respond. In business news, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares as part of a plan worth up to $865 million. Starbucks denied it's selling its China business, and Northern Trust said it won’t merge with BNY Mellon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak to Congress today, likely defending the decision to keep interest rates steady until at least September, despite pressure from Trump for major cuts. NATO leaders are meeting in the Netherlands, with talks focused on defense spending. Trump is expected to push allies to meet the 5% target. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6115 Resistance Level 2: 6147 Resistance Level 3: 6180 Support Level 1: 5980 Support Level 2: 5950 Support Level 3: 5910 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Stock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire AnnouncementStock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement Last night, U.S. President Donald Trump made a social media post announcing a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. According to his own words, the ceasefire is set to last “forever.” This announcement triggered a sharp bullish impulse (indicated by the blue arrow) on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), pushing the price to a new high above the 6074 level. Just yesterday, traders feared that the United States could be drawn into yet another costly war following bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, today the stock markets are recovering, signalling growing optimism and a waning of fears over a major escalation of the conflict. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart When analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) seven days ago, we identified an ascending channel. The angle of the trend remains relevant, while the width of the channel has expanded due to the downward movement caused by tensions in the Middle East. Notably: → the price marked the lower boundary of the channel as well as the internal lines (shown by black dots) dividing the channel into quarters; → the latest bullish impulse suggests that the upward trend is resuming after breaking out of the correction phase (indicated by red lines). It is possible that in the near future, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could reach the median line of the channel. There, the price may consolidate, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers—particularly if the peace in the Middle East proves to be lasting. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
SPX500: Bearish Momentum Below 5966, Bullish Recovery Above 6010SPX500 – Technical Overview SPX500 is currently exhibiting bearish momentum, largely driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are contributing to heightened market volatility. At present, the price is approaching the pivot level at 5966. A confirmed 1-hour candle close below this level would likely reinforce the bearish bias, targeting 5938, and potentially extending the decline toward 5902 and 5858. However, if the price stabilizes above 5990, we may see a retest of the 6010 resistance. A breakout above this level would shift the momentum toward the upside, with further targets at 6041 and 6098. Key Levels • Pivot: 5966 • Support: 5938, 5902, 5858 • Resistance: 6010, 6041, 6098
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2
Weekly Red Candles Signal Potential PullbackOn the weekly chart, two clean red candles have formed. The price is struggling to move higher — every attempt to break above is being sold off. An additional factor is geopolitical tension, which puts extra pressure on bullish momentum. After such an exponential rally, I expect at least a pullback . Could there be a new high and breakout above resistance? Yes, it's possible. But the current setup offers a clear stop-loss just 1.60% below the current price — a small and comfortable risk. This is not a quick trade. I plan to hold the position anywhere from 1 week to 1 month, depending on how the market develops. Therefore, I choose an optimal position size for my account, knowing that margin will be frozen.
SP:SPXShort
by kventinka
SPX: geopolitics, Fed, inflationDuring the previous week the S&P 500 was moving in a mixed manner. The trading range was between levels 6.039 and 5.967 where the index is closing the week. Traders and investors had quite a lot of topics to cover in order to decide which side should be traded. The tensions in the Middle East were one of them, continuing for the second week in a row. The FOMC meeting was held, with the Fed holding interest rates steady, for another meeting. Still, the Fed continues to count with two rate cuts till the end of this year. The Fed expects that implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration might affect short term inflationary pressures, but it should be a one-off effect. Some positivity for markets came from the statement of the Fed Governor Waller, who noted that the Fed might make the first rate cut in July. On the opposite side was San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who noted that she would be more confident to cut rates, after she is certain that the trade tariffs would not make a significant impact on inflation. Uncertainty still holds on markets, especially after news posted by the Wall Street Journal, noting that the U.S. might cancel technology waivers, impacting some chipmakers. The tech companies involved in the semiconducting business dropped in value. Friday's trading session Nvidia ended by 1,12% lower, AMZN also closed the week with a drop of 1,33%. This week on the opposite side was Apple, with a gain of 2,25%. As long as uncertainty shapes investors sentiment, the market will lack optimism. The volatility on the US equity markets might continue, with possibly negative trends. The week ahead brings the PCE data as well as Fed Chair Powell`s testimony in front of the Congress, in which sense, the volatility will most certainly hold.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX