SPX heading for daily 200 or weekly 50 in next week or twoTargeting 5700-5730 in next week or two. This is still only about 5-7% correction from peak. Ideally we need a10% correction. Which means 5650 should be doable.
SP500 trade ideas
The stock market is not "Crashing"!I keep hearing people saying the stock market is crashing, a mild pullback is hardly a crash, we are not crashing, at least not yet, and maybe not for an extended period.
We use the S&P 500 because it is the best gauge of our markets with the most diverse representation of any of our indices.
A short history of the trend of our stock marker since 1992, correlated to presidencies.
1992-1999 Clinton: Stock market transitioned from fairly flat to a steady ascending path, we reduced our yearly deficit 6 years and had a budget surplus 2 years.
2000-2007 George Bush Jr: Descending or neutral trend most of the 8 years, we broke our 15 year ascending trend and started an overall descending trend. Deregulation led to the recession via predatory lending giving Walmart cashiers $300k loans, banks labeling bad debt as Grade A and banks leveraging 80% of all of Americans money on risky investments. 2008 was devastating for the US Stock market. Increased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2008-2015 Obama: Converted descending trend back to ascending trend and trended up in a tight ascending channel for the rest of his presidency, while implementing an array of regulations to prevent banks from doing this to America again. Decreased the yearly deficit 6 of 8 years.
2016-2020 Trump.v1: Maintained tight ascending channel and broke out of 15 year resistance, introduced a lot of lot of volatility and uncertainty, ultimately ended term with the market on the same trajectory it was when he took office. Diluted all US Dollars by 50%, 25% of the dilution was in 2020, coupled with $3T of quantitative easing in a single year (2020) and more than $2T direct stimulus, this dilution and excessive stimulus during a supply chain crunch directly conveyed into rising inflation the following 2 years. Increased our yearly deficit every year in office.
2021-2024 Biden: Broke out of ascending path to a much steeper and unsustainable ascending path, likely due to all the stimulus pumped into the market in 2020 & 2021. Hard pull back in 2021/2022 as Interest rates were increased to deter spending to reduce interest rates which skyrocketed to 10% in 2021 and was brought back down to just above 2% by 2024. We saw a volatile and sharp ascending channel form. At the end of his term, the market was at top of channel and well above all time highs with some of the most growth in the stock market ever witnessed anywhere on earth, ever, as seen in the charts, nearly doubling the S&P 500 in 4 years, the American economy was booming! Decreased the yearly deficit 2 of 4 years.
2025-2038 Trump.v2: Inherited the market at all time highs on the steepest incline we have witnessed to date, and at a point the market is expected to retract based on the charts. Currently it looks like the S&P could lose 15% or so of its value and still be in our ascending channel of 6 years now. As you can see recent pullbacks don’t even register on a weekly candle. Yes these tariffs and subsequent tariff wars will almost certainly wreak havoc on markets as we already see increase in unemployment, significant drops in consumer confidence, increase in debt ceiling, increase in debt through corporate tax breaks, uptick in inflation and uncertainty in policy but --- we still have a long way to fall before we can call this a bear market or a crash. If we do breakdown from the ascending channel, we can expect the S&P to eye around 3200, or nearly half of its current value. If this administration takes over the federal reserve, they can stimulate the economy to fight the decline and prolong the consequences but those measures will involve further dilution, further debt, further smoke in mirrors, further uncertainty and will likely ignite a ticking time bomb with even greater consequences then outlined here.
So in short, stop saying the market is crashing, it is not. But, be vigilant, there is a high probability of short term pullback and a long term crash based on the charts, historical precedence and current administrations activities.
SPX500 Bullish Reversal CallThe index is on good daily trendline support. Plus, there is a divergence with the breaking previous LH and giving all evidence to start a new bull trend on 1H TF. Planning to get 1:2 with the given trade plan.
S&P500, US GDP grew by 2.3% in Q4 The U.S. GDP grew by 2.3% annually in Q4, confirming the initial estimate and meeting market expectations. S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 5918 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5918 level could target the upside resistance at 6018 followed by the 6060 and 6106 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5918 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5866 support level followed by 5827 and 5777.
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Bounce Doesn't Look Convincing SPX made a bit of a bounce off the support levels but it's not shown the strong properties I'd have expected to see in the bat D leg or the C leg I spoke of.
All trailing stops on longs hit.
If we can continue to break out to the upside I'll probably have to buy breaks with tight stops but I think the more likely looking setup here is we make a new low.
If a new low comes from the setup we have a butterfly forms just under the last lows. This is a big inflection point. Either a low is made or we trend down strong under it.
This would also agree with the big 1.61 inflection area.
Starting to think I was wrong about the bigger bull trap idea and we might see a break. Back in shorts.
Possible Bat Forming In my initial mention and entry at the low I posted the Elliot ABC corrective pattern.
Then I remembered we live in the age of eternal stop hunting. Upon some further consideration, I suspect if my bear thesis is correct we'll likely see a new high first.
Probably the short being 6160.
The difference between the ABC and the bat D leg does not matter at this point. Both are strong buys to the retracement levels.
Just a heads up because the possible bat pattern changes the way we go about fading the rally (And I will be trying to fade a rally if it comes).
At things stand, I suspect 6160 is the destination for SPX.
All long stops are in profit now, just waiting to see if we can break up.
17 Year cycle for SPXThis is a seventeen year cycle chart for the SPX. Data earlier in the century is adapted from the DOW.
It shows a consistent topping pattern every 17 years.
LongLong.
Looks like good trades
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
SPX the bullish case to 7k or is the top in now? or bearish?Here are the levels for bull or bear on the SPX based off a fib extension from the macro lows.
What is interesting is how the price has reacted off the 0.618 and 0.5 levels suggesting that it has further to go because we have broken out
However if you draw another fib extension from the lows it shows a top around 6100-6150 range where we are now.
Good luck - lets hope the bulls win out and crypto takes off too. If you do the same analysis on the Nasdaq fib tops out at 26,400 where fib is equal to 1. that implies Nas to over perform to 20-25% from todays levels hence supports the argument here for higher prices on the SPX
SPX500For follow-up and to evaluate the movement at these levels,
in case this pattern is adopted ..
SPX needs to close above $6,700 next month to be bullish. The 3 month on a breakout indicator is doing a higher low which signals a market reversal. The Red line on the Breakout indicator is a simulation if SPX will close above $6700. Usually, the market tops at the red step average, if SPX can close above that, it will be a massive move to the upside, if it touches it or barely touches it, it might be on a reversal. The support is the Step Average Blue line but im looking for it to go easily on the Green Step Average line.
S&P500 - The 2025 Bullrun Just Started!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) will rally massively during 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of years, the S&P500 has perfectly been respecting the trendlines of a rising channel formation. After the recent rally of +70%, it is quite likely that - following the 2020 cycle - we will see another final rally of about +20% before the S&P500 will correct itself.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPX Downside Continuation Post Trend BreakdownAnticipating selling pressure to continue into weekend with SLD/OPEX headwinds. ES broke below key 6030 level and will need to find support above 6k to maintain bullish positioning. SPX closed the week at 50EMA but a failure and Monday open below 6k likely leads to downside opportunity at lower trendline around 5960-5970.
Positions: Feb26 6,000P
Possible Completion of this stage of drop.We have a nice 5 leg drop so far and now we're current threatening the double bottom.
If we fail to make a new low today I think we'll trade 6080 again.
Picked up longs and lotto calls today.
Would love to see this bounce for a short.
Out my shorts accumulated during the drop.
SPX looking like Dog$#it here. Down is comingNot much to add here. Chart looks terrible. Me thinks down for the next few months
NVDA Earnings - Must Watch EarningsNVDA Earnings Wednesday after market
This is crazy that 1 stock may be the pain or gain for the markets in 2025
Glass Half Full
-NVDA is a revenue monster
-Earnings trend continues to point higher
-Demand for chips remains high (minus DeepSeek scare and uncertainty)
-19% weight on SMH
-7% weight on SPY
-8% weight on QQQ
-NVDA bullish can single handedly lift the markets and renew optimism and risk appetite
Glass Half Empty
-NVDA is overvalued
-NVDA hasn't hit all-time highs since Nov 2024 (with fakeout in Jan 2025)
-NVDA's reign is over and competition is heating up in the chips space and AI arms race
-NVDA bearish can be the wave of risk off that confirms current market concerns and fears
It's a big deal - plan and trade accordingly. Thanks for watching!!!
