SP500 trade ideas
The close - no bells ring at a topMy feeling right now is one of deja vu. Like the bottom before the president delayed tariffs, there was no volume and my assumption was we would go a bit lower. Here we have no volume and my assumption has been we will go a bit higher. Could we top here? It's possible. The bear divergences are pointing to a move down at least temporarily.
SPX Key Levels to Watch Jun 4 In today’s analysis of the S&P 500 (SPX), we’ll break down the crucial levels to watch as we head into June 4th. After perfectly testing the 5929 level yesterday, the market bounced back, setting the stage for potential moves. We’ll discuss the new support range between 5954 and 5967 and what it means for traders. If this range holds, we might see a rally towards 6165, but if it falters, a drop to 5850 could be on the horizon. These levels are highly actionable, so stay sharp and ready to react!
Are we trading the market or trading our own opinion?It was said that 99% of the traders out there failed to make profits.
I pondered hard over this statement and realised that whatever tools I am using, it is equally available to the millions of traders out there. The same for the financial information which I read on CNBC, SCMP, etc. Nothing that I have is one level above others.
Then, when I look at the charts, for a long time, I have also convinced myself of buying at support and selling at resistance and gaps get filled up. From this chart, we can see that 3x the support failed with the last one breaking past the support line before staging a rebound.
Just because it has worked in the past, it does not mean it will again. 19 Feb to 7 Apr 2025, this must be the shortest bear market in history. Could we witness more of such rise and fall in the coming future?
Most would hesitate to go LONG now for one of these reasons :
1) it is reaching the resistance level soon and likely profit taking so price may retrace. Let's wait.
2) Donald Trump and team is getting sued on the tariff matters , volatility is expected in the market so price may move sideways for a while
3) The US market is overvalued per many analysts out there, PE over 28 or 30 and the fall is going to be great like 40-50% downfall. Wait some more or taking partial profits
4) My friends are making good money from cryptocurrency and the profits are huge, I should ditch SPX and followed him
The list could goes on.........
I am still LONG on the SPX and is now awaiting for opportunities to accumulate. What is stopping me is the gap and resistance which I am afraid of. In my mind, I am thinking it is better to get it cheaper , right ?
Guess I am looking for a catalyst or better reasons to convince me to go LONG.............
Like to hear some others views
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,780.17
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,973.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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S&P INTRADAY corrective pullback - pivotal zoneMacro & FX Outlook
Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar by mid-2026, driven by a slowing US economy and expected Fed rate cuts.
Trading implication: Long positions in EUR, GBP, and other G10 currencies may benefit as USD weakens. Watch for renewed momentum in carry trades and emerging market FX.
Geopolitics
Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates with Ukrainian drone strikes hitting deep into Russia (including Siberia) and Moscow launching one of its most sustained aerial attacks.
Peace talks are expected in Turkey today.
Trading implication: Elevated geopolitical risk could support safe havens (gold, CHF, USD short-term) and oil prices, depending on energy infrastructure vulnerability.
UK Defense Spending
The UK will allocate £15 billion to expand its nuclear warhead program, new attack submarines, and build munitions factories.
Trading implication: Likely to support defense sector stocks and raise questions around fiscal policy ahead of elections; may contribute to upward pressure on gilts if deficits widen.
Poland Political Shift
Nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins presidential election, a setback for Poland’s pro-EU coalition government.
Trading implication: Potential increase in EU policy friction. May weigh on Polish assets and zloty (PLN) in the short term.
US Debt Ceiling & Diplomacy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured markets the US will not default but gave no timeline on cash exhaustion.
Also noted a Trump–Xi call is imminent, aiming to ease US-China tensions.
Trading implication: Uncertainty over Treasury liquidity may raise short-term bill yields. Any improvement in US-China relations could lift global risk sentiment and Chinese equities.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6010
Resistance Level 2: 6070
Resistance Level 3: 6160
Support Level 1: 5780
Support Level 2: 5740
Support Level 3: 5700
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 awaits new drivers for growthThe S&P 500 index has been moving in a perfectly sideways direction without any clear directional bias. This week had increased volatility a little bit, but not too much: the price was consolidating in a narrowing triangle, having expanded it to some extent.
It’s possible to observe a continuation of a sideways action, at least until the interest rate decision from the FED next week and the press-conference of Jerome Powell, which might give (or might not give) any clarity about the possible direction of the market.
Overall activity remains muted as summer’s slow price action dominates the action.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has displayed both upward and downward movements throughout this week's trading session, narrowly missing the targeted Outer Index Rally level of 6073. Currently, the index is characterized by a bearish trend, warranting attention towards the Mean Support level of 5940, with additional critical support identified at 5888.
Conversely, there exists a significant potential that, upon reaching the Mean Support of 5940, the index may recover and rise to the Mean Resistance level of 6046. This upward movement could facilitate an interim rally, culminating in the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6073 and enabling the index to address the Key Resistance level positioned at 6150.
SPX500: Trade Setupwww.youtube.com
📉 SPX500 – 4H Short Setup | Smart Money Premium Rejection
Approaching a pivotal juncture on the 4H chart, where price interaction at the premium zone signals a noteworthy development. Notably, a rejection marked by a feeble high + CHoCH structure.
🎯 Current Thesis:
- Short Entry: 5,998.3 → Entering premium + inefficient zone
- Target: 5,790.1 → Previous FVG + BOS retest area
- Potential Reload Zone: 5,704.2 – 5,644.2 → Offering deep discount + mitigation opportunities
🧠 Structure + Liquidity Insights:
- Bearish intent affirmed by BOS + CHoCH
- Fib levels align for confluence, notably 0.886 rejection at 5,875.6
- Key FVG breached; distribution evident from premium swing failure
📊 Gameplan:
Execute initial target at 5,790, consider partial exit.
Monitor reaction for possible reload near 5,704 or lower at 5,644 for continued strategy.
Maintain caution above 6,018 (weak high) for risk protection.
⏳ Context:
- Increasing volatility, weakening internals
- Downside path supported by volume nodes
- Market reassessing risk premia amidst Fed pause
🏴☠️ Trade strategically akin to smart money. Avoid impulsive actions — prioritize displacements, mitigations, and liquidity tactics.
hashtag#SPX500 hashtag#SmartMoneyConcepts hashtag#Fibonacci hashtag#ShortSetup hashtag#OrderFlow hashtag#TradingView hashtag#BearishBias hashtag#PremiumRejection hashtag#IntradayStrategy hashtag#SMP500 hashtag#WaverVanir
SPX500 – 4H Short Setup | Smart Money Premium RejectionWe’ve reached a critical inflection zone on the 4H chart. Price has tagged the premium zone and rejected with a weak high + CHoCH structure.
🎯 Current Thesis:
Entry Short: 5,998.3 → Price entered premium + inefficient zone
Price Target: 5,790.1 → Previous FVG + BOS retest zone
Reload Zone: 5,704.2 – 5,644.2 → Deep discount + mitigation area
🧠 Structure + Liquidity Logic:
BOS + CHoCH validated bearish intent.
Fib levels confirm confluence:
0.886 rejection (5,875.6)
Price now under key FVG
Distribution confirmed by swing failure at premium
📊 Gameplan:
Target first leg to 5,790, partial out.
Watch reaction for potential reload around 5,704 or deeper at 5,644 for continuation play.
Protect invalidation above 6,018 (weak high).
⏳ Context:
Volatility rising, internals weakening
Volume nodes support downside path
Fed in pause → market reevaluating risk premia
🏴☠️ Trade like smart money. Don’t chase price — wait for displacements, mitigations, and liquidity raids.
#SPX500 #SmartMoneyConcepts #Fibonacci #ShortSetup #OrderFlow #TradingView #BearishBias #PremiumRejection #IntradayStrategy #SMP500 #WaverVanir
S&P 500 & Indexes Breakdown + Trade SetupsIn this video, I dive into the S&P 500 and other major indexes to share my current market outlook. Right now, price action is stalling and volume continues to dry up — a signal that we could be due for a deeper pullback before any continuation to the upside.
📌 With global fundamentals such as:
US–China trade tensions
Russia–Ukraine war
Broader geopolitical risks
…it’s hard to ignore the pressure building. That’s why I lean bearish in the short term, expecting potential downside before any breakout to new highs.
⚠️ Of course, trying to short in this slow grind can feel like catching a falling knife — but I’ve prepped a few setups, all broken down in the video based on solid technical confluences.
Watch the full breakdown and let me know your thoughts.
Thanks for tuning in! 🙏
👇 Drop a comment, like, and subscribe for more market breakdowns.
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S&P500 INTRADAY uptrend continuation supported at 5960Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6120
Resistance Level 2: 6170
Resistance Level 3: 6220
Support Level 1: 5960
Support Level 2: 5900
Support Level 3: 5800
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 update from last week📉 Lesson Learned – The Way of a Trader 📈
Well… this time I jumped the gun. Thought the market would break lower from a compression point, but I was wrong. Price pushed higher, broke the ascending channel upwards — and I paid the price 💸
Not much volume behind the move, but still... up is up.
I acted on a gut feeling, and that didn’t work out.
The mistake?
⛔ Tried to predict the top
⛔ Didn't wait for a confirmed break with volume
Now it’s time to:
✅ Review
✅ Re-evaluate
✅ Learn
✅ Come back stronger
We’re not always going to be right — and that’s part of the game.
Discipline beats ego.
Welcome to the life of a trader.
Let’s keep improving 🔁