Hidden positive divergence on S&P 500Hidden positive divergence on 1d and 1w + bottom of the channel. Should make a big bounce soon. Valid as long as the price doesn't update January 13-14 low.
SP500 trade ideas
Market SnapshotI really wonder how 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is going to explain away what happens later this year and into the next
This is not good people...this is not good
S&P 500 Elliott wave - shortNot many bulls on the SP500 anymore, I'm waiting for a correction and the possibility of another bounce upwards...
SP500 | Long | 3hrsThis technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀
30 year logarithmic trend shows overvaluation30 year trend clearly shows overvaluation and a correction due.
We are in for a mini bear market Just use this situation for buying before 2026 and next rounds of lowering interest rates
SPX BOUNCETop is in unless a new ATH, this is the start of a longer leg down. We had a great close over the 50% fib the last few days so i am ready for a bounce to reload shorts. It s tight stop, if we fail to hold above the 50% of this current move around 6030-6050 then the move is over and the leg down will continue. Also we could just take out this current low and go for 5800.
Wave structure and TIMING sp 500 I am in cash 100 % I am waiting on what could be the final up leg from 3/23/2020 Best of trades Major and minor turn date 3/10 to 3/13th best of trades WAVETIMER
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders,
This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic.
The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close.
A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning.
A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion.
If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon.
Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control.
My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000.
Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
Crash or Boom? A look at what's nextFor those that have eyes to see (you don't even need ears to hear) a look at the charts can show us trends of new and old. These trends encapsulate psychology. Here's what I see.
Take a look at the chart, and ask me what all this means. OR, if you don't agree with the annotations, give me your take.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827.
Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143.
Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
Up for SPX500USDHi traders,
Wow! Last week the price action of SPX500USD went exactly to the target as predicted in my outlook. On Monday it dropped and after a correction up it took the liquidity under the previous lows and filled the 4H FVG. I've updated the wave count.
Now next week we could see a corrective upmove to the higher 4H FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX500 Holds Key Support – Bullish Bounce or More Downside?📉 S&P 500 (SPX500) Analysis – February 28, 2025 📉
The S&P 500 has dropped -2.8% to 5,856, as expected , after rejecting the 6,010 pivot zone.
📌 Today's Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum after stabilizing above the pivot zone (5,879 - 5,856), which acts as a key daily support area. As long as the price trades above this zone, it is likely to push up toward 5,898 and 5,920, with consolidation expected between 5,879 – 5,920.
Bearish Scenario: A 4H candle close below 5,856 would confirm a bearish shift, targeting 5,826 and potentially 5,792 as the next downside levels.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🔸 Resistance: 5,898 | 5,920 | 5,960
🔹 Pivot: 5,880
🔻 Support: 5,856 | 5,792 | 5,765
🚀 Will SPX500 hold above support, or is another drop coming? Share your thoughts! 👇🔥
SPX500 Bearish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
SPX500 is going down
And the Indice made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 5938.38 and the
Breakout is confirmed so we
Are bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bearish move down!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Strangle options $SPX target +/- 300 points RSI weakness is quite notable . Friday volume raise and large red candle suggest more volatility into coming weeks . suggest wide swing +/- 300 points so SPX heading to 5700 or 6300 . My idea is to watch Monday close then enter the strangle options combo .
SPX500 Bullish Retracement or Short Continuation?
1. Top-Down Bias
1. Weekly (Long-Term):
• Structural Trend: Bullish (higher highs/higher lows) since mid-2022.
• Momentum: Cooling (Weekly MACD negative, RSI slipping from overbought).
• Conclusion: Still in an uptrend overall, but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.
2. Daily (Intermediate-Term):
• Trend: Corrective/short-term bearish tilt (price below 10 & 50-Day SMAs).
• Support: Key rising trendline near 5,830–5,850; 200-Day SMA around 5,737.
• Conclusion: Intact broader uptrend, but near-term momentum is down. Bulls must reclaim ~6,000–6,100 to regain full control.
3. 4-Hour (Short-Term):
• Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lower lows, price below major 4H SMAs & Ichimoku Cloud).
• Bounce: Price is rebounding off ~5,830. Overhead resistance near 5,950–6,000.
• Conclusion: Still bearish unless price closes decisively above ~6,000.
4. 2-Hour (Intraday):
• Trend: Dominantly down, but intraday MACD and RSI have turned bullish.
• Resistance: 5,940–5,970 (Fib confluence) and ~5,990–6,000 (Ichimoku Cloud base).
• Conclusion: Short-term bounce is underway, but the structure remains cautious below 6,000.
Overall Bias:
• Long-Term: Bullish.
• Short-Term: Bearish/Corrective.
• Potential for a relief rally if price breaks above ~5,970–6,000. Otherwise, deeper corrections could target 5,830–5,850 or below.
2. Key Levels & Confluences
• Major Resistance Zones:
• 6,000–6,100: Overhead supply on Daily & 4H, plus 10 & 50-Day SMAs, Ichimoku cloud underside.
• 5,970–6,000: 2H/4H Fib confluence and descending trend line.
• Major Support Zones:
• 5,830–5,850: Short-term bullish order blocks, rising daily trendline, and 2H/4H support.
• 5,737: 200-Day SMA, key if the above zone fails.
• 5,600–5,400 (Weekly OB) and 5,634 (50-Week SMA): Deeper support if a more significant correction unfolds.
• Indicator Confluences:
• Weekly Ichimoku → Price well above the cloud, but momentum fading.
• Daily Ichimoku → Price near/below the cloud (~5,990–6,000).
• MA Clusters → 10 & 50-Day near 6,000; 100-Day ~5,960; 200-Day ~5,737.
• Fibs → 5,830–5,970 region offers multiple retracement overlaps on lower timeframes.
3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Recovery
Narrative:
Despite recent short-term weakness, the longer-term uptrend is still intact. A rebound could take hold if price holds above critical support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims the Daily/4H resistances near 6,000. Indicators on lower timeframes (2H MACD & RSI) hint at a near-term bounce.
3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Look for intraday bullish reversal candles (e.g., 2H bullish engulfing) near 5,840–5,860 support—before a confirmed 4H close above resistance.
• This could be triggered if RSI on 2H recrosses above 50 (it already has) and price bounces off a retest of 5,850.
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Tight stops just below 5,830 (recent swing low).
• Accept the risk of whipsaw if the market tests that area again.
• Pros/Cons:
• Pros: Potential for a strong R:R if the bounce holds; you enter near the bottom of the range.
• Cons: High chance of a false breakout or further drawdown if short-term momentum fails.
3.2 Moderate Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Wait for partial confirmation such as a 4H close above ~5,950–5,970 (descending trend line/Fib zone).
• Alternatively, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4H chart or price reclaiming the 4H Ichimoku conversion line (~5,950–5,970).
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., if price pulls back to 5,880–5,900, place stops slightly beneath).
• Gives moderate breathing room compared to the ultra-tight approach.
• Pros/Cons:
• Pros: Lower risk of immediate fakeouts.
• Cons: May miss the absolute bottom if price reverses sharply without much consolidation.
3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Require strong confirmation: a Daily close above ~6,000 (10 & 50-Day SMAs + Ichimoku Cloud) to ensure the short-term trend has flipped bullish.
• Prefer RSI (Daily) back above 50 and MACD turning positive on the Daily timeframe.
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Wider stop below the 200-Day SMA (~5,737) or below 5,830 pivot if you want a slightly tighter but still “safer” cushion.
• Aims to weather typical intraday volatility.
• Pros/Cons:
• Pros: Much higher probability trade aligned with a proven trend resumption.
• Cons: Enters at a higher price; your initial R:R might be smaller.
3.4 Bullish Targets & Management
• Target 1 (T1): ~6,100 (major overhead supply, near the upper end of daily cloud/resistance).
• Target 2 (T2): ~6,200–6,250 (next potential swing high if momentum truly shifts).
• Partial Profit / Trailing:
• Consider taking partial profits at T1 (~6,100) and trailing stop to break-even.
• If price pushes above 6,100, let a portion ride toward 6,200+.
• Invalidation:
• A Daily close below ~5,830 (or a 4H close well beneath that pivot) undermines the bullish thesis.
• Bearish signals on Daily MACD (staying negative) also reduce bullish odds.
4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction
Narrative:
Recent breaks below key Daily MAs and a confirmed 4H/2H downtrend indicate the market may extend its pullback. The bounce to ~5,950–6,000 could fail, triggering a new leg lower toward 5,830 or even the 200-Day SMA (~5,737).
4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Look to short on a minor retest/failure at intraday resistance (e.g., 2H pivot near 5,960–5,970).
• Could also short an immediate break below 5,850 if that level cracks intraday.
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., if shorting near 5,970, stop ~5,995–6,000).
• This captures a potential quick continuation lower but risks getting stopped out on whipsaws.
• Pros/Cons:
• Pros: Larger reward if the market breaks down quickly from near-resistance.
• Cons: Elevated risk of fake breakdown or sudden bullish intraday reversal.
4.2 Moderate Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Wait for a 4H candle close below ~5,850 (the short-term support / OB zone) or for RSI (4H) to slip back under 50 from its bounce.
• Confirm negative MACD cross or downward slope on the 4H chart.
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Place stops slightly above the retest zone (5,870–5,880) or the most recent swing high.
• Allows for typical 4H volatility around S/R lines.
4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach
• Entry Conditions:
• Require a Daily close below 5,830 (rising trendline break) and a retest that fails to reclaim that line.
• Confirm daily MACD remains negative and RSI stays below 50.
• Stop-Loss Placement:
• Above the nearest significant daily pivot or 200-Day SMA if you’re aiming for a multi-day to multi-week short.
• A wide stop to accommodate more volatile corrections.
• Pros/Cons:
• Pros: High probability of a sustained down-move once that daily trendline is lost.
• Cons: The initial break might be fast; you could miss the “best” short entry.
4.4 Bearish Targets & Management
• Target 1 (T1): ~5,737 (200-Day SMA) if the immediate support at 5,830 fails.
• Target 2 (T2): ~5,600–5,400 (major weekly OB & 50-Week SMA ~5,634).
• Partial Profit / Trailing:
• Consider locking in partial gains near T1 (200-Day) and trailing stops to break-even.
• If momentum accelerates, hold a runner down toward 5,600 or lower.
• Invalidation:
• 4H or Daily close back above ~6,000 would undercut the bearish premise, as it signals a reclaim of critical MAs and Ichimoku territory.
• A bullish MACD crossover on Daily also weakens the short thesis.
5. Risk Management & Position Sizing
1. Volatility (ATR) Awareness:
• Weekly ATR ~166; 4H ATR ~44. Elevated intraday volatility means you may need slightly wider stops or smaller position sizes.
• For short-term trades (4H/2H), consider using a fraction of your usual size to account for bigger swings.
2. R:R Ratios:
• Target at least 1:2 or better.
• Scale your position so the max loss is within your tolerance (1–2% of your account per trade).
3. Timeframe Alignment:
• Larger positions if Daily & Weekly confirm a direction.
• If 4H/2H contradict the higher timeframes, trade smaller or wait for alignment.
4. Partial Profit Strategies:
• At T1, take partial off (e.g., 50%) and move stop to entry.
• Let the rest ride to T2 if momentum follows through.
6. Timing & Confirmation
1. Candle Close vs. Intraday:
• For more reliable signals, wait for 4H or Daily closes at critical S/R (above 6,000 for bullish or below 5,830 for bearish).
• Aggressive traders may jump in on intraday wicks or 2H signals but must accept higher whipsaw risk.
2. Market Sessions:
• Key breakouts often occur during London or New York opens when liquidity spikes.
• If trading overnight or in low-liquidity sessions, be mindful of sudden volatility pockets.
7. Extra Notes & Contradictions
1. Mixed Signals Across Timeframes:
• Weekly bullish vs. 4H/2H bearish. This can cause choppy price action. Intraday shorts may still work in a higher timeframe uptrend as a temporary pullback trade.
2. Event & News Catalysts:
• Unexpected fundamental events (economic data releases, central bank announcements) can override technical setups.
3. Ranging vs. Trending:
• If price stalls between 5,850 and 5,950 for several sessions, we may be in a short-term range. Look to fade extremes until a breakout clarifies direction.
8. Final Summary
• Top-Down Bias:
• Weekly remains bullish overall but losing momentum.
• Daily is short-term bearish, yet still above the 200-Day SMA.
• 4H/2H are in a downtrend, but a bounce is in progress.
• Key Levels & Confluences:
• Support: 5,830–5,850; 5,737 (200-Day); deeper ~5,600–5,400.
• Resistance: 5,970–6,000 (short-term), then 6,000–6,100 (major daily overhead).
• Scenarios:
• Bullish if price holds support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims ~6,000.
• Aggressive: Buy near 5,840–5,860 on 2H signals.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H close above ~5,950–5,970.
• Conservative: Require Daily close above ~6,000 and a bullish MACD on Daily.
• Bearish if price fails near 5,950–6,000 or breaks 5,830.
• Aggressive: Short rejections around 5,960–5,970 or immediate break of 5,850.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H close below 5,850.
• Conservative: Require Daily close below 5,830 and retest fail.
• Risk Management:
• Use ATR to size positions, keep R:R ≥ 1:2, scale out at T1, etc.
• Edge Cases / Fundamentals:
• Stay alert for macro news or high-impact data that could abruptly change the technical landscape.
Bottom Line:
We have a long-term bullish market undergoing a short-term correction. A push above ~5,970–6,000 would reassert upside momentum; failure at this zone and a drop under 5,830 could extend the sell-off toward the 200-Day SMA or deeper weekly supports. Select the risk profile (Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative) that best fits your trading style and capital preservation goals, and always align position sizing with your maximum risk tolerance.
SPX500USD| BEARISH VOLUME HELLO
SPX500
The price followed my previous analysis, experiencing a sharp decline. After such a steep drop, a corrective movement is necessary, and currently, the price is in a retracement phase toward the 5886 level. If it manages to break above this level, the price is likely to extend its upward correction, potentially reaching the upper boundary of the channel or even testing the 5947 resistance.
However, despite this short-term correction, the overall bearish trend remains dominant. Once the correction phase is exhausted, we anticipate the price to resume its downward movement, breaking through all intermediate support levels until it reaches the primary bearish target at 5777. This expectation aligns with the prevailing downtrend structure, reinforcing the continuation of bearish momentum.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3.
⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10.
⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
U.S. Indices on the Brink: A 10-15% Market Correction Ahead?At Vital Direction, our Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, and Gann analysis suggests that the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and broader U.S. markets are approaching a major topping formation, setting the stage for a sharp 10-15% correction.
We anticipate this downturn to unfold between now and mid-April, with potential bottoming phases emerging either in early March or mid-April. From there, we expect a strong recovery, leading indices back to their all-time highs or near them by August to November 2025 before a massive reversal unfolds.
Investor Caution Advised!
Sentiment remains extremely bullish, but we urge traders to prepare for heightened volatility and downside risks in the short term. This could be a pivotal moment before the next major bullish phase!
Getting CloserLately the market has been confusing. It appears traders are not clear minded on the economy, the recently voted in administration's policies, and that uncertainty is definitely showing up in the price action.
Be that as it may be, this is an update on the SPX cash index I posted last week as more of the price action fills in. I'll try to update this weekly.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX heading for daily 200 or weekly 50 in next week or twoTargeting 5700-5730 in next week or two. This is still only about 5-7% correction from peak. Ideally we need a10% correction. Which means 5650 should be doable.
2000 TP next collapse long term projection This how market cycle works once all stocks or mother of stock blow off top it tends to dropp this drop if history repeat it self it drop to 2000 area to find support
as per fibo retracement see chart areas to likely to trade
Market Update: S&P Reacts to Trump’s Tariff Announcement The S&P remains fragile below the 55-day moving average (6000), with key support levels in focus:
📌 200-day MA at 5723
📌 Mid-2024 peaks at 5651/70
📌 55-week MA at 5603
If the 55-week MA breaks, there’s little support until the 2022 peak at 4818. Volatility ahead!
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