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SP500 trade ideas

S&P 500: Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown? Zoom out. Clear the noise. We might still sweep the lows, but when viewed on the weekly timeframe, this current S&P 500 move looks more like a healthy valuation correction than a structural breakdown. Let’s break it down by the numbers using fractal analysis: 🟩 March 2020 (COVID Crash): ▪️~35% drop ▪️V-shaped recovery ▪️Oversold RSI bounce 🟨 2022 Bear Market: ▪️~27% correction ▪️Multi-month wedge consolidation ▪️Eventually led to an upside breakout 🟦 Now (2025): ▪️~21% correction so far ▪️Retesting long-term trendline ▪️RSI in familiar oversold zone 📊 Fractal Math: - From 35% to 27% = 22.86% decrease - From 27% to 21% = 22.22% decrease Both legs show a consistent ~22% drop in correction depth suggesting bearish momentum is weakening with each cycle. Currently bouncing off the1844 days of support. Is this the bottom? Will there be relief? 🔁 If this pattern holds: - We could see a short-term sweep or deviation under recent lows. - But structure favours a potential recovery from this zone, unless the trendline breaks decisively. 📌 Watch levels closely. Timing matters. 🧠 What’s your take, is this another “buy the dip” moment? Do hit the like button if you liked this update and share your views in the comment section.
SP:SPXLong
by Cryptorphic
S&P500 Searching for a BottomExecutive Summary The S&P 500’s Elliott Wave structure suggests the current downtrend is incomplete, with a high-probability target near the 4,300 level based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Global stock markets remain under pressure amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and Elliott Wave patterns across various indices continue to point to more downside. Current Elliott Wave Analysis Today’s upward volatility is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today’s lows in the coming sessions. There is an impulse wave that began in October 2022 and topped in 2025. We are now seeing the after effects of that completed rally. A standard 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300—a logical target for a ‘normal’ correction of the 2022–2025 rally. Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely. Bottom Line The S&P 500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term. We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.
TVC:SPXShort
by JWagnerFXTrader
1
When is the party over?Inflation ticking back up. Unemployment increasing. Dollar increasing. Geopolitical turmoil. Contentious elections. And yet the market continues to grind up. But when will the music stop? When is the party over? I'm not making a call to mark the top here but this is setting up for a giant fall. We could continue to grind up to 6000 point, there's no doubt that bulls remain in control. However, the strength of the move up is weak. History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. Looking back at the historical data, bearish divergences on the Weekly always result in a large pullback. I am expecting a pull back soon. I do believe a large correction is brewing and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of the trade. What am I doing about it? I still think the path of least resistance is to the upside, bulls remain control. So I am using trailing stop losses, taking profits on many of my positions. And looking to open shorts upon weakness. Waiting for confirmation of my bias, especially with a very important couple of weeks of earnings. Stay tuned, manage your risk and don't let greed get the better of you! Not financial advice.
SP:SPX
by NoFOMO_
4
The Stock Market (SPX) Will Also RecoverGreat news my dear friends, reader and followers, truly great news. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now reversing after challenging a strong support level. This level is the 0.618 Fib. retracement for the bullish wave that started after the October 2023 market low. A strong bounce is visible as soon as this level was hit. The correction is a classic ABC and the C wave is very steep. When a move is really strong, great force, it can't last that long. So the drop happened all at once, fast, and this means a fast end as well as a strong reversal, but the reversal will not be the same. We are more likely than not to experience a long drawn out recovery, higher highs and higher lows long-term. Higher prices next. This is the main support level, 0.618 around 4885. If this level breaks, the next strong support sits at 4540. We are going up. It is not only Bitcoin and the Altcoins, the stock market will also grow. The correction is over. Total drop amounts to a little more than 21%. This is huge and more than enough. The bears are satisfied. The bears are done. A bearish wave is followed by a bullish wave. Short bearish action, long bullish action. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
7
The Bear's Dilemma: Bull trap styles and bets. Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this. If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised signal is stupidly strong move up, but this can also happen when a new high will be made. Successfully dealing with bull traps in such a way as to profit big when right and do okay even if not, you have to think ahead. If you follow my work you'll know I have a rather static style as to how I try to do this. When we're dropping into big supports, I always tend to discuss these different types of bull traps and I always try to buy where I think the low is. Citing that not only am I doing it for the immediate chance to make money long- but it's an important part of my bear plan later. I know if I get the first trade right even just betting on a rally to the shallow retracement level, I catch between half and a third of the move up. This is going to cover my risk for what I'll spend if I get on all the bear traps and all of those setups fail. It allows me to get on them on with increasing RR. More scope for profit with a well predefined risk. Into a rally I always look to fade the shallow bull trap. Very often that at least produces a dip. So I can often position for a 1:10 or better RR trade and generally will breakeven on the attempt if I get it wrong. Only in the times of extreme run-away moves does this fail. And I accept those are conditions I should expect to lose in. If and when I think I am seeing signs of the shallow trap failing I get long targeting the 76 trap. Hitting this trade can be extremely lucrative and it allows me to either be sure a net profit on the swing or have the option to size my bear bets bigger aiming for a big jackpot if it works out. When buying I consider all the main ops/risks. Here's the new high move mentioned into the drop. Here's the classic 76 which would also present as a head and shoulders (and butterfly) pattern now. When I plan my bull trap trading I am always wanting to buy at the green arrows and short at the red. I also do this with the assumption I'll be entirely wrong and lose all of my bear bets, and I try to structure it in such a way that will be massively net profitable if I hit my bull trades. Bulls tend to show up on my posts being somewhat rude any time I do this- but this is outperforming buy and hold. At worse, I'm level when we get back to the top. Usually, I'm considerably ahead. And in the one instance the market makes the big reversal - I know I'm going to be left standing. Perhaps standing in very good stead if I get it right. Using this basic template I find extremely useful for dealing with bull trap betting. It provides a functional and practical framework to be able to benefit from most types of moves. Doesn't pretend to know the future. Is essentially direction agnostic. Can be quantified as profitable with backtesting against both rallies that make a new high and crash events - often with extreme outlier results in crash events. Whatever happens, and whatever news drives it, this is the plan I'll execute on so long as the market moves in a way relatively similar to my template.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
SPX - Have we bottomed ?History often repeats itself. SPX just bounced off a key level the 2022 high and the long-term channel support which has historically triggered strong reversals (red circles), and we’re seeing the same setup again. MACD is deep in bearish territory but showing signs of flattening. Volume is elevated — likely signaling a washout or institutional accumulation. If bulls defend this level, a bounce toward the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibs (5,493 – 5,649) is on the cards. Break below 5,114 and it’s lights out again — signalling that this bounce perhaps may just have been a gap and bull trap ? I’m neutral and acting as per technical hints, waiting for signs of confirmation. Although Risk/reward is solid here if momentum shifts. Would love to hear any thoughts or different opinions. All the best as always !
SP:SPX
by likeghostmf
1
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TheSignalyst
4
Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday? In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions. Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there. 2. Key Question: Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions? 3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction: 🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there) 🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k 🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions. 4. Trading Plan: 🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range. ✅ Buy near the 4800 support. ✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400. 5. Conclusion: I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500
by Mihai_Iacob
S&P 500 Index vs PresidentIn this layout you can see how the S&P has been performed on each presidency. Presidency terms, Obama 1st term: after the financial recession, the index was trying to recover and we saw falls from 16 to 21%, market went up 83%. Obama 2nd term: the index saw falls from 10 to 15%, Market went up 50%. Trump 1st Term: the index saw falls 3 big times 11, 21 and 34% Market went up 68%. Biden 1st Term: the index saw falls 27% and 10%, Market went up 55%. Trump 2nd Term: we are in the 1st fall 21% not sure if it will continue going down. The price wants to get closer to the 200MA every time Fibonacci levels, we are on 0.5, we still have 2 more levels down so these 3 levels could be a good entry point 😊
SP:SPX
by JorgeMz10
1
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down. I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear. The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July. I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
SP:SPX
by JenRz
3
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone. If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally. Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail. I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1
US 500 Index – Retracement Holds DeclineAfter one of the most extreme trading days for the US 500 index that we have seen since the pandemic of March 2020, a slightly uneasy calm has descended across markets this morning as traders await the next tariff updates from President Trump and his team of advisors. Right now it is still unclear whether President Trump would provide an opportunity for individual trading partners to reduce the penalty level or gain exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs that are due to go into force tomorrow. Traders are also on the lookout for any news from China regarding tariffs or fresh stimulus measures to support the economy, and the announcement of retaliatory actions from the EU are still on the horizon. What is clear, is that as this unfolds across the rest of today and tomorrow, being prepared for any volatility in the US 500 index that may appear again, with a trading plan, clear assessment of technical levels to deploy any potential stop loss and take profit orders, may well be a solid approach to consider. Technical Update: US 500 Index - Retracement Holds Decline During times of market turmoil, where sharp declines in the price of an asset are seen to reverse what was previously a strong phase of strength, traders will often focus on using Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support levels. Clearly, global equities have recently entered a period of uncertainty and aggressive price declines. However interestingly, the US 500 index has found support this week at a Fibonacci retracement level, which at least for now, has succeeded in holding declines, and is even starting to see attempts at an upside recovery materialise. Looking at the weekly chart of the US 500 index above, we can see the latest price capitulation tested 4791, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to February 2025 advance. Traders may now be asking ‘Do the latest price declines to 4791, represent the extent of the current liquidation in assets, and can upside now emerge again?’ It is currently impossible to answer this question with any true conviction as there is still much to be heard from President Trump regarding tariffs, which will likely dictate future market sentiment and price trends. However, monitoring important support and resistance levels over the upcoming trading sessions may help us gauge where the next potential directional moves may be seen in the US 500 index. Possible Support Levels to Monitor: Having tested the 4791 Fibonacci retracement level and seen a recovery develop from it this week, it may be suggested this remains an on-going downside support focus in price. As such, it may well be closing breaks of this level if seen, that could skew directional risks towards the potential of further declines. Therefore, closes below 4791 might be an indication that the recent weakness may carry further to the downside, prompting traders to look for possibilities of a more extended decline in price. This may in turn lead to tests of 4474, which is the deeper 62% retracement, maybe even further if this gives way. Possible Resistance Levels to Monitor: Having seen the 4791 support hold and prompt the latest recovery moves, some traders may well be looking for the potential of a more sustained recovery in price, even though much will depend on the reaction to any future trade war escalation or easing of tariff concerns. By calculating Fibonacci retracements on the latest US 500 index decline, we may be able to gauge possible target resistance levels if a recovery in price is to emerge. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2025/April 2025 sharp sell-off stands at 5313. This may be an interesting level to watch, as if it were broken on a closing basis traders may start to look for fresh attempts to push towards higher levels once more. In this case, the 50% retracement resistance level which stands at 5474, and the 61.8% level at 5635, could be relevant. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone