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SP500 trade ideas

S&P 500: Bottoming Out or Just a Bounce?Has the market bottomed? The S&P 500 has bounced 10% from the critical 4800 level, signaling strong buyer interest and disrupting the bearish trend that’s been in place since February 2025. Selling pressure appears to have exhausted as the bearish pattern reached its target near 5000. This bounce is a positive sign, suggesting downward momentum may be fading. However, for a stronger confirmation, we need to see the index hold above the 4800–5000 zone. If it fails to stabilize here, the 4500 level could act as the next buffer.
SP:SPX
by Quantific-Solutions
I May Have this Bull Idea Horribly WrongI know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend. Sell > big profit. Sell > big profit Sell > WTF was that Oh correction > Sell > Big profit. I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which is crazy high for the way I estimate odds). But that might have been it. I may have terribly misjudged how deep it would be. If I have this wrong, 4500 in MIN I've expect to hit and if that level breaks we might capitulate to 3000. EXTREMELY STRONG WARNING TO ANYONE USING ANY OF THE BULL IDEAS I'VE EXPESSED. If they're good, they'll be good and easy - and if not, ditch the ideas! They would be predicted to fail spectacularly if wrong. Probably around 5170 area.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by holeyprofit
20
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPXLong
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
Trump Pump Just Broke the Charts12% Up in a Day. Now What? What a difference a headline makes. Monday: Markets dump. Panic. Retail sells the low. We hit our bearish targets like clockwork. Wednesday: Markets explode like they found a cheat code. SPX rallies 9.5% in a day. Nasdaq? A completely unhinged 12% up. All because… tariffs might be paused again. You can’t make this stuff up. But you can trade it. When Euphoria and Edge Collide The Trump Pump Parade After last week’s fake-news-induced dump, we now have headline euphoria. No earnings beat. No rate cut. No macro shift. Just one rumour: “Trump might pause tariffs.” Cue the biggest one-day rally since 1933. Nasdaq: +12% SPX: +9.5% SPX now kissing the 5400 bull trigger level Financial media? Throwing a rave. Retail? FOMOing back into the top. It’s madness. But it’s not structure. The System Trader’s Reality Meanwhile, in the AntiVestor camp… The bear swing is still on but under review. Why? Because we trade levels, not vibes. And 5400 has always been our pivot. We’re now sitting right on it, with overnight futures starting to drift lower – like the market just realised it left the oven on. The decision zone is here. Hold 5400? It’s time to shift gears. Bull thesis activates. Tag ‘n Turn setups. Bull Pulse Bars. GEX Bulls Eye trades. Lose 5400? We go right back to feeding the bears. It’s not emotional. It’s mechanical. This is what system trading looks like. --- Expert Insights: The Market Owes You Nothing Mistake: Getting emotional after missing a rally or overstaying a short. Fix: Use a system with defined levels. 5400 was always the line. You don’t need to guess the pivot. You just need to trade it when it confirms. This rally may be overblown. But until the market proves otherwise, you don’t fight the tape – you ride it with structure. --- Fun Fact The last time the Nasdaq moved more than 10% in a day? March 13th, 2020 – the height of COVID panic buying. That rally was followed by… a further drop. Then a V-bottom. Then a massive bull market. So… is this the start of something new? Or just another overcaffeinated bounce? History says: Don’t decide early. Let price confirm.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
Nasdaq and S&p500 short: Completion of B waveI mentioned in my previous analysis that we are waiting for a short (the previous one was a long-then-short linked with this idea). I did not post any short idea yesterday after that NOT because I am good and recognize a double combination. It's really because I was too busy with work and I am glad my last was a long-then-short. Back to this, remember that the huge volatility has caused the points in the chart to compress and thus even though the stop loss looks small, it is actually still quite a number of points away. So my suggestion is to manage your size and keep it small relative to your account. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
4
SPX updateSP500 E-min futures opened 200 pnts lower as I predicted. I have to make frequent updates because of the fast changing environment. This is just reading the market and you all can do it with practice. Volatility on futures options has crossed 100! My God! I have never seen such readings. With SPX being at key level at 2022 peak and also at HVN, some positive news from Trump adviser that 50 countries want to negotiate with Trump, I see the market rally to 5000 very likely Monday open or close. But I still believe 4150 as final resting place. I dont see any crashes below 4800 except 150 points near the target, as far as I can read. But outside the readings, I do suspect a banking crisis like 2008 is looming. That would change everything because Trump is against bailouts. We will see when that happens
SP:SPXLong
by krisoz
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling. On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall. On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣 🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing: The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987. A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down. The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty. ⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger? 📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation. 🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore? #BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
6
Look there is our bottom :)I loved my title :) haha if you're reading this: I intrigued you! And I made you read it. ☺️ thankyou! Ok, This is what I think about why we might be near the bottom. The 200 EMA on a weekly scale has been a very selective indicator to indicate this. Above, you can see how the chart touches the candle when the market is oversold (as indicated by RSI below). You can see that it repeats itself in sharp, spike-like, and short-term decline: marked by the yellow circles on the chart. And finally, the volume indicates, with blue dot lines, the high and medium volume levels. There's no hay below. And we just entered HIGH :) This is going to get even more interesting... and sharp 😜 ✌🏼
SP:SPXLong
by marmoller86
1
June 2026 Sp500 will be at 7000 pipsThis is a corrective move. Trump wanted this to deal with the US debt. Everything is smoke a Trump crash. Nothing else. In June 2026 Sp500 will top at 7000 pips in a massive EW 5. Now we are in EW 4. It will take some time to settle the dust as you can see. Be ready, because after Sp500 bottoms out around 4700-4900 pips we will see a MOASS in the next year. After that, be ready, as well, to see a massive crash to 2500 pips that we will see at the end of 2028.
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
2
SPX500 Short at M5 supply zone due to tariffs uncertainty Market overview and macro outlook Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs 1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise. 2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows. 3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now Upcoming news 1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty 2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD - If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut - If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut 3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD - If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here. Technical View At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then. In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF. SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point) TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout) Execution 1. Limit order - SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point) - TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout) - TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 2 WR: 0% Profit: -1.1R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuhaocooper
2
S&PThe SPX touched a long-standing overhead, and came down ever-so-slightly to retrace the most recent peak. This is all totally normal. There is nothing here to worry about. In fact, the more touches of this overhead, the more likely it is that we break above it. You can see this has happened many times before in the S&P, where it breaks above an overhead, only to land on top of it, and then launch for a new even steeper part of the curve. The macro parabola that the markets are in.
SP:SPXLong
by Shammus01
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level. 🔍 Context: 2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥 2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉 2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support 2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again. 📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different? 🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022. 📈 Watch for confirmation: A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀 #SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SmartSignalss