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S&P500 - Temporary snap back rally to kill some bears ?Markets are in correction mode as everyone has (hopefully) noticed by now, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 breaching key lows. Forced selling like we saw on Friday usually gives us a reaction rally that can last a few days. Prices have already dropped too much already so don't try an be bold now with any agressive shorting, especially if you plan to keep positions overnight! You have to stay alert and react quickly to be able to profit on short-term setups within this bear market. Be disciplined, protect your capital, stay active—this is not an investor's market !!!
SP:SPXLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
S&P INTRADAY futures point to lower open Global stocks sold off sharply on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets, driven by growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The market reaction is forcing Wall Street analysts to dial back their bullish outlook on U.S. equities. Despite the market turmoil, Trump and his team downplayed fears of inflation and recession, remaining confident that strong economic growth lies ahead. In response, China’s policymakers met over the weekend to discuss potential steps to support the economy, including speeding up planned stimulus measures, according to sources. Meanwhile, traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with some even betting on an emergency rate cut before the Fed’s next scheduled meeting, as recession fears mount. Oil prices dropped for a third day, with Saudi Arabia cutting the price of its main crude grade by the most in over two years, adding to the bearish sentiment. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5273 Resistance Level 2: 5379 Resistance Level 3: 5510 Support Level 1: 4815 Support Level 2: 4700 Support Level 3: 4585 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
spx 5100 targetAfter warning of 200 pnts drop yesterday for monday, the futures opened 200 pnts lower at 4800 But expect to see a green bar during the day or tomorrow with 5100 as target to fill some gap and many short sellers taking profit. 4800 is at 2022 peak so technically a strong support 5100 hundred would be a resistance for further downside If it goes over 5100 and stays there, the trendline break rule fails. Then I will have to review my further downside targets and start being medium term neutral/bullish from bearish and consider 5300 as next target and 4800 as target for double bottom for being bullish
SPREADEX:SPXShort
by krisoz
Bullish Pullback Opportunity: A High-Probability Long SetupToday’s chart shows a strong bearish trend on SP:SPX with price comfortably trading below key moving averages—20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA—which confirms that the long-term downtrend is intact. Notably, after an aggressive downward move, the price has retraced to the 20 EMA, presenting a potential buying opportunity. The pullback appears healthy, and we’re now seeing early signs of a bullish reversal—look for a bullish engulfing pattern or a strong green candle as confirmation. Adding further conviction, the RSI is holding in a neutral zone (around 40-60), indicating that the asset isn’t overextended yet. Trade Setup: Entry : Consider entering long on confirmation of a bounce off the 20 EMA. Stop-Loss : Place your stop just below the 50 EMA or the recent swing low for a tight, controlled risk. Take Profit : Aim for the next resistance level or a minimum risk-reward ratio of 2:1. This setup offers a balanced risk profile and capitalizes on the confluence of support from the EMAs and neutral momentum shown by the RSI.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by dkkdmfc
S&P Direction - Bounce back for a lower low?As I’ve posted on March 4th, I was expecting a second shoulder of the pattern (and then a sharp fall due to some news) and we were going to have it - the bounce back - until the tariff turbulance. A clear positive divergence of the RSI was appearing on the daily chart and the momentum has turned upwards. And then you know what happened. The sharp fall came a couple of weeks earlier than I’ve anticipated. The market will definitely bounce back but when and at what level? Nobody can know, however the artefacts will probably cause a lower low afterwards. Check out the pattern of the 2022 downtrend. The water seems to be muddy for a while.
TVC:SPXShort
by erdem_bilgin
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event. Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes : The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks. The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002. Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory: The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months. Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns: Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2). Geopolitical and Systemic Risks: Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs. Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026: Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing: AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025 Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting: A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels) Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025 Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035 Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes. Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators Recession Probability Models: NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026 Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline Technical Analysis: Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash) Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024 Likely Catalysts for Correction: Trigger Probability Potential Impact Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25% Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20% Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35% Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40% The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%. Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities High-Risk Sectors Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases. Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction. Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262. Defensive Opportunities Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams. Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average. Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines. Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis Comparative Scenario Modeling Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25% Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40% Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20% 1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15% The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction: Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors Portfolio Construction Recommendations: Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through: 15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets 20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV) 5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike) Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields. Alternative Assets: 10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium) 5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following Behavioral Considerations Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on: Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Who-Is-Caerus
S&P 500 at Decision Zone: Relief Rally or Continuation Lower?📄 The hourly chart is currently at a critical inflection point after a steep drop from recent highs. We’re seeing signs of a potential corrective rally forming, but the battle between bulls and bears is far from over. 🧭 Key Zones to Watch: Fib Resistance (0.55–0.62): 5,400–5,536 Bullish Breakout Target: 5,707 Bearish Breakdown Target: 4,925 Neutral Pivot: 5,061 (current consolidation zone) 📊 If price reclaims and holds above 5,536, a continuation toward 5,707 becomes likely. 🚨 However, a rejection in the Fib zone followed by a drop below 5,061 may confirm renewed bearish momentum targeting the 4,925 region. This setup provides clear structure for both bulls and bears. Keep an eye on volume, price action confirmation, and respect risk management. 💡 Comment your thoughts below! Are you leaning bullish or bearish here?
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by chartframe
SPX Drop Likely to Reach Between 4832 and 4933SPX Drop Likely to Reach Between 4832 and 4933 There are two likely targets for the current plunge that are good candidate for where strong demand will emerge. The first is the blue up-trend line drawn from the COVID lows. This line has 4 price touch points already which makes it a solid magnet for another touch point for this current pullback. That target today is 4933. The second price magnet is the purple horizontal line drawn from the January 2023 high. That previous key resistance level, 4832, was eventually overcome in early 2024 which should make it likely support for the 5 week pullback underway. The key takeaway from my point of view is that this recent sharp downdraft may just be typical back-filling action in a CONTINUED uptrend. If correct, SPX will find its footing somewhere in the yellow highlighted area intersected by the two lines and then resume its march upward to test the January 2025 highs. So while its true that last week's plunge was breathtaking and may have convinced many that the long-term bull market is over, if you consider the 4 dramatic weekly drops that took place during the initial market reaction to COVID, you can see that similar drops can just be temporary pullbacks in what will eventually be a successful test of the primary bullish trend.
SP:SPXLong
by HS_TA_
When is the party over?Inflation ticking back up. Unemployment increasing. Dollar increasing. Geopolitical turmoil. Contentious elections. And yet the market continues to grind up. But when will the music stop? When is the party over? I'm not making a call to mark the top here but this is setting up for a giant fall. We could continue to grind up to 6000 point, there's no doubt that bulls remain in control. However, the strength of the move up is weak. History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. Looking back at the historical data, bearish divergences on the Weekly always result in a large pullback. I am expecting a pull back soon. I do believe a large correction is brewing and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of the trade. What am I doing about it? I still think the path of least resistance is to the upside, bulls remain control. So I am using trailing stop losses, taking profits on many of my positions. And looking to open shorts upon weakness. Waiting for confirmation of my bias, especially with a very important couple of weeks of earnings. Stay tuned, manage your risk and don't let greed get the better of you! Not financial advice.
SP:SPX
by NoFOMO_
4
are we repeating 1987 and going to 4000 on S&P?Though the correction and market reaction was expected for macro economic conditions, did not anticipate such severe and sharper decline. This doesn't mimic regualr circumstances like healthy and organic correction, rather it mimic covid and 1987 flash crash. I started to feel now we may repeat 1987 thus may see more downtrend next week or two and slowly world comes to adjust to new conditions and prepare. This could be slow recovery thereafter hardly touching 5100 on S&P by Christmas
SP:SPXShort
by PJCharts4FUN
S&P 500 Breakdown: 4,790 Worst-Case Scenario in Play?Last week, I warned in this post that if sentiment worsened, the S&P 500 could head toward 4,790 as a worst-case scenario. Fast forward to today, and the index has officially lost the 5,149 support level, opening the door for further downside. What Just Happened? 📉 Key Support Broken: The market just lost 5,149 (1.0 Fib retracement), which was a major line in the sand. 📉 Momentum Still Bearish: With no strong bounce, sellers remain in control, making 4,790 - 4,800 the next major target. 📉 Next Supports: 4,800 zone: A critical psychological level and my worst-case scenario target. 4,761 (1.618 Fib): A key confluence area for a potential bounce. If the S&P 500 fails to reclaim 5,149 quickly, then the next downside targets are: 4,800 – A major area I highlighted last week. 4,761 – Aligns with the 1.618 Fib extension, adding confluence. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? For bulls to take back control, the index must reclaim at least 5,149, or risk continued selling. A failed bounce could accelerate the move lower. 🚨 I called 4,790 as a worst-case target last week.
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
2
S&P outlook. i think we're currently mid 1987 crash. lines up with a peak fear april 9th and may 27th cut date ( give or take ) literally zero to fear. jpm collar is 4480. they're crushing this because of the speed of the trade. they dont wanna fully break the economy. they just wanna liquidate some degens and buy the dip. learn to love it mane. this also means small caps rally HARD from may on if this plays out. should be a BLAST to play this admin if small caps goes on a genny run while the S&p takes a grind and go approach. bullish on AMEX:MIDU AMEX:TNA AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT SP:MID CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:WIF
SP:SPXLong
by Fadethesniper1
$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰ As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️ Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️ ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX 📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700 Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700 ¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ ) ²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² ) 🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️ 📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /- NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 ) rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
SP:SPXShort
by raj5_7_5