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SPx / Bearish Momentum Awaits Retest, Key Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,755 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643. Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,734. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,734 could activate the next bearish zone. Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850. Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5734 Resistance Levels: 5755, 5781, 5803 Support Levels: 5715, 5675, 5643
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Eyes New Highs: 43 ATHs and CountingTechnical Analysis The price has pushed up as we mentioned yesterday and is still moving toward a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, the S&P 500 has recorded 43 ATHs this year and continues to reach new highs. As long as it trades above 5931, it is likely to reach 6002 before starting a bearish trend. Alternatively, if the price drops from here and closes a 4-hour candle below 5931, it will support a bearish move toward 5891. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5933 Resistance Levels: 5985, 6002 Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5815 Trend outlook: Uptrend previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,769.26 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,804.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 5,727.17 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone. To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low. Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out. Now, we wait and see how this movie ends! Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by tantamount
The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event. The Market’s Independence from Political Events There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community. The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations. Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome. This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement. The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market. Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events. This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events. Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology. For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction. In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
SP:SPXEducation
by VitalDirection
SPX500USD Will Go Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,736.0. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,643.6 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
November Trading Competition Chart Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (SPX500USD 1D chart) In order to maintain the uptrend, it must rise above 5738.2 and be maintained. Since the StochRSI indicator is currently expected to create a double bottom, if the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold zone, it is highly likely to create a large uptrend. Accordingly, I think the 5738.2 point is a very important support and resistance point. - (XAUUSD 1D chart) BW(100) indicator is created at 2748.960, and HA-High indicator is created at 2734.472. Accordingly, the point of observation is whether it can receive support and rise around 2734.472-2748.960. - The fact that BW(100), HA-High indicators are created means that a high point section has been formed. Therefore, if it receives resistance from BW(100), HA-High indicators and falls, you should basically think that the decline is likely to continue until it meets BW(0), HA-Low indicators and respond accordingly. Therefore, whether there is support around 2734.472-2748.960 is important. - Since the StochRSI indicator appears to have entered the oversold zone, we need to check where it is located when it rises in the oversold zone and maintains the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA. - (XAGUSD 1D chart) The chart can be seen as already in the process of decline. However, since it is maintaining an upward channel, we need to keep in mind the possibility of creating a pull back pattern. Accordingly, the area around 3188144 is expected to be an important support and resistance zone. The HA-High indicator is created at the 32.99790 point, and the BW(100) indicator is created at the 34.86 point. Accordingly, there is a possibility that it will be restricted from breaking through the 3299790-34.86 zone upward. - (EURUSD 1D chart) I think the 1.08821 point is a very important section in the trend. I think it is likely to have difficulty turning into an upward trend until it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. Therefore, I think it would be advantageous to proceed with a trade after confirming support near 1.08821. - (WTICOUSD 1D chart) The oil chart is in a reverse arrangement. Accordingly, I think it would be advantageous to trade with a sell (SHORT) position. It is currently rising above 71.6167 and rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. In order to maintain this rise, it needs to be maintained around 71.955. - HA-Low, HA-High indicators are indicators created to trade using the Heikin-Ashi chart. The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that a low point range has been formed. Therefore, if it is supported near HA-Low and rises, you should basically think of a response plan by thinking that it will continue to rise until it meets the HA-High indicator. The HA-Low or HA-HIgh indicators are designed to display box ranges differently from other indicators. Therefore, in order to escape the low point range formed by the HA-Low indicator, it must rise above the upper point of the HA-Low indicator box. Therefore, it can be said that it has escaped the low point range if it rises and is maintained above the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (72.606). - StochRSI indicator is not a universal indicator, but basically - When the StochRSI indicator is above the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to sell, - When it is below the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to buy. From that perspective, I think the current rise is more likely to be a rebound rather than a rise. - (BTCUSD 1D chart) The important support and resistance areas from the current price position are as follows: - 71288.90-72322.91 - 68343.64-69795.79 - 65910.71 The three areas above are important support and resistance areas. - As explained on the oil chart, since the StochRSI indicator is below the 50 point, you should focus on finding a time to buy. Therefore, if you are trading for the first time, you can trade depending on whether there is support near 68343.64. However, since the current trend is an upward trend, if you trade with a sell (SHORT) position, you need to respond quickly and briefly. - (ETHUSD 1D chart) ETH is currently moving sideways in the box section. Therefore, the trend is expected to be determined depending on which direction it deviates from the 2272.88-2707.12 section. Therefore, you should think about trading within the box section and create a response plan. Then, when it deviates from the box section, you should switch to a trading strategy to eat the trend. - Have a good time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
OANDA:SPX500USD
by readCrypto
S&P 500 tests THIS resistance after NFP bounceFollowing the weaker US NFP data and thanks to strong performance from Amazon, the S&P 500 rallied. But this comes hot on the heels of a big drop the day before, which means the recovery could fade if Thursday marked a reversal day in the markets. At the time of writing, the SPX 500 was testing resistance right around the 5770-5775 area. Previously this was a key short-term support zone until Thursday's breakdown. Now below this area, the 200-period MA and the bullish trend line, could we see this zone now turn into resistance? If the selling resumes here then the next big area of support below Thursday's low is at around 5670, marking the high made back in July. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FOREXcom
S&P500 (Bearish Correction Amid Fed impact)Technical Analysis The price has risen approximately 210 pips, as mentioned yesterday. Today, as long as trades remain below 5989, a drop toward 5931 is expected, followed by consolidation between 5931 and 5989 until a breakout. Alternatively, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5989, it would signal bullish momentum with a potential move towards 6021. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5989 Resistance Levels: 6002, 6021 Support Levels: 5950, 5931, 5891 Trend Outlook: Bearish Correction previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Election Volatility Shakes Up US MarketsS&P 500 ● The index retreated from its all-time high of 5,880, initiating a downward trend. ● A breakdown below the Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed. ● Key support levels to watch: ➖ Immediate support: 5,670 ➖ Strong support: 5,400 Nasdaq Composite ● The index has hit an all-time high near the 18,750 level before beginning to retreat. ● After breaking through the trendline support, the index is currently hovering slightly above the next immediate support level. ● If it dips below this support, we could see a significant drop, potentially driving the index down to the 16,670 level. **This market volatility is consistent with historical trends during US presidential election years. The 2024 election is particularly unpredictable due to conflicting economic indicators and potential delays in results.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way?Is a 5 percent drop in markets on the way? Currently, the European and American indices are approaching all-time highs. Right now, the chances of the market losing 5% are much higher than the reverse. One of the main drivers of the rise in U.S. stocks is Nvidia, which recently ranked first as the highest value stock in the world. Nvidia continues to be a dominant force in the technology market. However, investors may not be paying attention to the warning signs: the company recently reported weak guidance for the next quarter and the revenue growth rate is slowing. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is currently at 34, which is extremely high and could indicate a speculative bubble situation. Are the tech giants influencing the market? Let us continue with the example of Apple, one of the biggest players in the technology market. Early reviews for the new I-Phone 16 with Gen AI seem negative, which could lead to a possible failure of the product. At the same time, financial data show a PE ratio of 34 and revenue growth of 0.43 percent year-over-year, which seems unrealistic. These factors combined could be seen as signs of a rapidly expanding bubble. However, among the tech giants, Microsoft has suffered the most significant impact. After losing its investment in OpenAI and facing challenges such as dependence on Nvidia's infrastructure and other artificial intelligence issues, it was recently downgraded to third place. The recent growth of the S&P 500 is largely driven by the Gen AI theme, thanks to the important contribution of mega caps such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. However, this dependence on large companies cannot last: they are overvalued and their growth is slowing. A healthier balance in the index is needed for sustainable growth. Vix and Germany send warning signals The economic situation in Europe is not favorable, as shown by the recent negative unemployment figure in Germany. The German unemployment index measures changes in the number of people out of work in the country. This latest figure shows an upward trend, pointing to a weak labor market that has a negative impact on consumer spending and thus on overall economic growth. Another important index to keep an eye on is the VIX, also known as the “fear index.” This volatility index is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500. When investors begin to worry about a possible stock market crash, they buy put options to protect themselves. This increases the demand for and prices of put options, and thus the VIX. In general, when uncertainty is low, the VIX stays below 15, indicating a macroeconomically stable bullish market. However, at times of increased uncertainty or fear of a recession, the VIX rises above 20. This was evident during the market's most critical periods in 2000, 2008, and 2020. Attention must be paid to the situation in the Middle East, as there are many unknowns. The worst case scenario is that Israel could attack Iran's energy infrastructure. This could lead to Iran retaliating by striking Israel's energy infrastructure and perhaps those of other oil-producing countries in the region. In either case, there would be a sharp rise in oil prices and the risk of a possible global recession, as happened in 1973. In summary, I expect a modest market decline of about 5 percent in November, followed by new highs in December thanks to the markets' traditional Christmas rally. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” above. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help.
SP:SPX
by Antonio_Ferlito
Correction down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week my analysis of SPX500USD had been chosen for the Editor's Picks of Tradingview. It was very funny to read many comments that my analysis was wrong and that it was more likely that this pair would drop then rise. Now a week later we see who was wrong and who was right and who made a profit. As a trader you always have to trust your own analysis. Don't listen to other opinions because that is mostly the losing mass that is speaking. I do this for 10 years and I know what I'm doing. Now next week we could see the finish of wave 5 and after that a bigger correction. Trade idea: Don't trade. Wait for the bigger correction down to start. After a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) shorts. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
The Trump Effect: S&P 500 Hits New Highs! What's Next?The market's momentum has taken the S&P 500 to fresh highs, but where do we go from here? 🤔 Here are the key resistance points to watch: 🔹 First hurdle: 2-month resistance at 5975 🔹 Psychological level: 6000, a tougher barrier 🔹 2024 resistance: Around 6070-6090 – likely to be a strong test 🔹 Major milestone: The top of a long-term channel on a logarithmic chart (since 2009), not reached until 6750! Eyes on the charts as we navigate these critical levels. 📊 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXLong
by The_STA
S&P500: 1D MA50 hit after 50 days. Is it a buy?S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.346, MACD = 12.360, ADX = 37.705) as it hit yesterday the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 11th. The Channel Up since August is intact and each of its two previous Lows took place on the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 respectively, so each time an MA period higher. The 1D RSI is also reversing on a similar pattern as those two Lows. Our Target is the top of the pattern (TP = 6,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
Another S&P 500 channelSo here is another channel. The July peak made an extension of this channel, and the price didn't arrive to that extended part neither at the top nor at the bottom since then. Even if the price will arrive to that extended part at the top of the channel, it won't reach 6000 before the elections unless it makes a breakout in the upward direction thus making a new extension. Maybe it will reach 6000 after the elections. But I think that a more likely scenario is the price hitting the bottom of the channel first. Also I suggest that the price will go on a small correction now to 5650 support area, hit the trendline and make a new wave to 5800. And then we might see a good correction. If it won't go that way, perhaps this channel will be helpful in your analysis.
TVC:SPXShort
by Supergalactic