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Wave 5 Vibes in SPX. Very close to puking my bullish positions and reverting back to being a bear (although I hate to short at these levels, I'd probably wait for a break and rally) but this is possibly a wave 5 spike out. If it is, then we'll see a big rally to over 6000. Big attempts at this on now, largely weighted with deep OTM calls so they're cheap to lose. Wave 5 would be about over now if this is correct. Otherwise, I think we'll end up trading 5000. Would just be a matter of what path. I'd not short immediately, but I would bail on longs quickly.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion?📊 S&P 500 – Is Wave IV Nearing Completion? According to Elliott Wave Theory, the S&P 500 is currently in an impulsive structure, and it seems to be completing Wave (IV) in a larger degree. Typically, Wave IV retraces near the Wave IV of Wave III, which aligns with the corrective zone in this analysis. 🔹 Two Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Conservative Approach: If price remains within the 23.6%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone, we can expect Wave IV to complete soon, leading to the start of Wave V in the impulsive structure. 2️⃣ Aggressive Scenario: If the price breaks above 6147.43, this wave count might no longer be valid, and an alternative structure (such as an ending diagonal) could be forming instead. 📌 Key Level to Watch: The invalidation level for this scenario is 5122.40. As long as price stays above this zone, there is a strong possibility of an extended Wave V, with Wave 1 already completed and Wave 2 correcting within the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement range before a potential bullish continuation. ⚠️ Alternative Possibility – Complex Correction? While this count follows Elliott Wave principles, we should also consider the possibility of a complex correction (WXY or a triangle formation) before confirming a bullish move. 📊 Final Thought: With the equality of Waves I & III respected, the impulsive structure remains valid unless price enters Wave I territory. Otherwise, we might be looking at a different formation. 💡 What’s your view? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see an alternative setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇📈
SP:SPXShort
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
4
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk. 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 📍 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation). 🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached): ❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 . 🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 . 🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Market Sentiment: 📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally. 📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops. 🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib). As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
S&P500: Broke its 1W MA50 after 17 months. Recovery or collapse?The S&P500 turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.430, MACD = -85.410, ADX = 51.223) as it breached today its 1W MA50 for the first time since the week of October 30th 2023, i.e. almost 1.5 year. That was a week of a very aggressive recovery after a Channel Up correction, with the bullish sequence reaching 9 straight green weeks. With the 1D RSI ovesold and the 1W RSI almost on the 39.15 Support, which was the low of the October 23rd 2023 1W candle, the index couldn't have been technically on a better long term buy spot. Needless to say, the market can't rise if the fundamentals are against it and right now the geopolitical tensions and more importantly the trade war isn't helping. If the index does find a positive catalyst to take advantage of, then the bullish technicals of the Channel Up bottom will prevail, and this week's candle may resemble the Max Pain 1W candle under the 1W MA50 of October 23rd 2023. Even if it doesn't rise as high as the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of that rally, we would expect in that instance a 2.0 Fib extension rally like the post August 2024 bullish wave (TP = 6,700). Failure to find support this week though, will most likely result in further collapse (even more aggressively so) to the 1W MA100. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
4
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 10 March 2025 - S&P 500 index broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 5600.00 S&P 500 index recently broke the support zone between the support levels 5775.00 (monthly low from January) and 5690.00 (strong support from October and November). These support levels coincided with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the earlier upward impulse from September. S&P 500 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 5600.00 (target price for the completion of the active short-term impulse wave (i)).
SP:SPXShort
by FxProGlobal
S&P 500 Breakdown at Key Support LevelThe S&P 500 is showing clear signs of technical weakness as it breaks below a key support level around 5,675, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. This breakdown follows a rejection at 6,130, a recent high that established a resistance zone. With the index now trading below the 50-day EMA, downside risks are increasing. If the 5,668 level fails to hold, further declines toward the next major support zone could materialize. Traders will be watching for a potential retest of broken support as resistance before determining the next move. Key Levels to Watch: 📉 Support: 5,668 📈 Resistance: 6,130 -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
America's Finest 500 brace for tariff impactIn my last piece, I'd had the downtrend coming too early as only a technical formation to follow through. Now the news would not allow any sunshine close to the S&P's Best so soon, as the Trump Administration will introduce tariffs to Canada and Mexico imports. The short term trends on the index are already in the red. More Tariffs The Administration also plans tariffs on the Agrarian sector, which comes as horrific news to the farmers who import many material to produce their goods. The Administration calls for farmers to simply "overproduce" and start producing their goods in America, but there are three problems with that: 1st, the costs for staff. Not many people are left who could work on American farms after Trump's Administration has them deported by the grand. Hiring people to do hard labor almost nobody wants to do these days anymore is close to impossible at the current level of wages. The farmers have to prop up the payments if they want to have a chance to produce the required surplus at all. 2nd, the surplus. The produced surplus of goods does not allow to compensate costs with higher prices, as food will begin to flood the market and decrease food prices. That's good for food-insecure households, but will end in a disaster for the farmers, many of which will be forced to give up. Large agricultural corporations are likely to take over land from farmers, and they'll jack up prices back again as soon as they can. 3rd, the market . Whether the domestic market can consume farm's produce in a whole, no matter how big the surplus, is unclear for now as many households are currently above their price points on groceries. However when the surplus comes to market and produce becomes cheaper, there is not much wiggle room the surplus can fill before leading to a massive fall of prices and, thereafter, the sector of independent farmers. Also for big corporations the surplus can become a problem, because many countries will retaliate Trump's tariffs with their own tariffs to hit U.S. exports with a huge blow on their appeal. Multilateral Tariffs Union against the USA In multiple countries, once huge and high-ranking trade partners with the U.S., a Tariffs Union with members in Europe and Asia are discussed between politicians. As many countries face U.S. tariffs, the idea to create a new market of Free Trade aside America is floating around. European lawmakers discuss the idea of creating a Tariff Union with a few of the BRICS states, such as Brazil, South Africa and China, and propose that the EU lifts tariffs wherever the U.S. has laid them, so goods with a tariff for the U.S. can be sold elsewhere tariff-free. U.S. will drown in surplus production with nowhere to go Such plans would make it significantly harder for the U.S. to import goods their economy requires, and as the Tariffs Union would react on U.S. tariffs with their own, the U.S. will find it even harder to export its surplus. For now, such concrete plans depend on new players stepping up to the stage, such as Germany's Chancellery Candidate Friedrich Merz. The Germans, always reluctant to lay new tariffs onto the Chinese, could become a strong voice to form such trading alliances, even if they come with a price: China's forthcoming on such plans might depend on the EU's position on Taiwan, which the Union might reconsider and eventually overthrow, basically having no real interests to protect in the region. (Except for the electronics and chips industry, which is lured to the U.S. by Trump and creating a surplus of goods there.) The U.S. market and economy are facing sinister times domestic and foreign, as Trump's politics are currently only profiting one faction of participants: the short sellers.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Johnny_TV
S&P INTRADAY Bearish & Oversold Capped by 5768 resistanceKey Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5768 Resistance Level 2: 5800 Resistance Level 3: 5920 Support Level 1: 5647 Support Level 2: 5624 Support Level 3: 5560 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500 - Daily Market Analysis 10 Mar 2025 The market will open lower today. - The bulls see this as a retest of the March 7 low. - They want a higher low followed but a higher low major trend reversal. - If the market breaks lower, they want a failed breakout followed by a reversal to close the day with a long tail or a bull body. - The bears want a continuation lower. - They need to create follow-through selling below the January 13 low to increase the odds of a measured move down which will take them near the 5400 area. - If the market trades higher, they want poor follow-through buying, followed by a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg extreme low (now Mar 7). - The parabolic wedge increases the odds of a minor pullback. The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after any pullback. - If the market trades higher, traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is weak and stalls around the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA, the odds of another leg down will increase.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88
Is Trump’s Golden Age a Recession in the Making? Let’s Find Out“This tariff low key slaps,” says no trader ever as markets get jerked and jolted day in and day out because no one can really figure out what’s happening. On some days, US President Donald Trump wakes up and chooses to slap a tariff or two on America’s closest and biggest allies. On other days, he goes for the pardon. Turns out, investors don’t really like it. Stock markets left and right wiggled to the point they couldn’t take it anymore — the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dived into correction territory last week. That is, the index plunged more than 10% from its most recent peak, which was a record high. Even though Friday was a good day for stocks, the S&P 500 SP:SPX closed out its worst week since September, wiping off 3.1%. Zoom out and you get an S&P 500 that’s barely holding above the flatline since the election. In other words, more than $3 trillion has been washed out from the Wall Street darling since it hit a record high in late February. Where Do We Stand on Tariffs Now? So where has the dizzying labyrinth of tariffs landed? And is that final? (No, it’s not.) Trump last week declared that there’s simply “no room left” for Canada and Mexico to bargain over a deal or even a delay. That’s a 25% levy taking effect right there. A day later it was no more — a month-long reprieve for carmakers was introduced. Then a day later, Trump suspended the 25% levy on almost all goods from its closest neighbors. To this, Trump said that the “big” wave of tariffs is coming in early April to a bunch of countries, including the European Union. Right now, only China’s 20% tariff remains in place. The roller-coaster ride around who gets slapped with what has sent the dollar TVC:DXY in a freefall — so much so that the markets have started to chat about a “Trumpcession,” (not something you’d like to have your name on). That is, some traders and investors expect Trump’s policies to tip the American economy into a recession. Swirling fears of a downturn came right as the Federal Reserve apparently managed to stick the soft landing — Jay Powell and his clique of central bankers lowered inflation through interest rate cuts while the economy continued to grow without nosediving into a downturn. A side worry of the tariffs (with very real front-and-center consequences) is a pullback from the Federal Reserve on its rate-cutting campaign. Analysts are quick to say that the US central bank won’t be looking to trim borrowing costs any time soon. Not with all that White House noise threatening to derail consumer confidence and dent corporate profits and revenue. Apparently, the huge wave of uncertainty around Trump’s tariff agenda, centered on isolation and protectionism, is making global investors nervous. In this context, how are you navigating the sea change? What’s your portfolio showing and how do you feel about growth prospects ahead? Share you thoughts in the comment section and let’s chat!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
73
Still Bearish, Still Grinding – Patience Remains the KeyStill Bearish, Still Grinding – Patience Remains the Key | SPX Market Analysis 10 Mar 2025 Another week, another grinding bearish move—but are we truly breaking down, or is this just another market head-fake? Friday gave us a tease of a breakdown, only to bounce right back into the range by the close. The overnight futures are dipping slightly, but we’re not yet below last week’s lows, meaning the bears haven’t fully taken control—yet. The scenarios remain unchanged, the bias is still bearish, and patience remains the best strategy. We’re watching for confirmation—because in this kind of slow-motion market, forcing a trade only leads to frustration. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market is playing the ultimate waiting game, and traders are getting impatient. It’s been grinding lower, teasing a real breakdown, only to snap back into the range by the week’s end. It’s like watching a boxer throw a knockout punch—only for the opponent to wobble, but never hit the canvas. The bearish move is still intact, but it’s moving in slow motion. It’s not a dramatic crash, but a controlled decline, inching lower each day. 📌 Friday’s Tease – The Breakdown That Wasn’t The market attempted a decisive break lower but failed to hold. By the close, price had bounced back into the range, leaving traders confused. This type of fake breakdown is what traps emotional traders, forcing them to chase moves that never materialize. 📌 Overnight Futures – More of the Same? Futures dipped slightly, but last week’s lows remain unbroken. A real downside continuation requires price to actually commit below key levels. For now, it’s just more of the same slow-motion grind. 📌 The Bearish Bias is Still in Play – But It Needs Confirmation The larger descending channel is still guiding price lower. The bias remains bearish, but conviction is lacking. If the market doesn’t break soon, we could see another bounce-back-to-nowhere scenario. 📌 The Plan – Stay Hedged, Stay Patient No need to force a position—the market hasn’t fully committed. Let the range confirm a direction before taking on new risk. Stay ready—because once the move happens, it could be fast. Right now, the market is whispering, not shouting. The traders who listen to what price is actually doing, rather than what they want it to do, will be the ones who capitalize when the next real move arrives. 🚀📉 --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 1986, a trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange accidentally placed a $7 billion order instead of $7 million, causing a massive market spike before it was caught and reversed. 💡 The Lesson? Even the smallest trading mistake can have enormous consequences—which is why having a structured system like the SPX Income System can help avoid costly errors and keep your trades under control.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX Will Grow! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX. Time Frame: 45m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,770.40. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,863.87 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXLong
by SignalProvider
1