Perfect Stock Market Crash incomingBrandon Biggs, who predicted in detail the assasination atempt of Donald Trump, in his words: "the bullet flew by his hear". He also predicted a massive market crash.
www.ndtv.com
SP500FT trade ideas
Momentum is slowing down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started a coorection down (wave 4). The momentum of this pair is slowing down and it looks like it is making an ending diagonal.
So next week we could see price come into the lower Daily/ Weekly FVG and from there we could see another upmove.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish into the FVG's and a change in orderflow to bullish. After that you could trade (short term) longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX500 Update ideaAs you know, most of the recent market growth has been due to the excessive growth of a limited number of companies, and this will certainly pose a risk to the entire market. Personally, I study market sentiment and the S&P 500 index before buying stocks. On the S&P 500 chart, after the 6030 level was broken and the pullback to it and having a trigger to enter, I started buying, but contrary to expectations, everything did not go well yesterday and the market showed that it does not have enough strength to grow. Based on my strategy, I will have to exit again. I will be in out to break the 6100 level.
Good luck.
@SPX500 bullish structurebulls will have to break previous 102 which could signal a strong bullish continuations trend, with a 20 day SMA break-through on the daily chart, i believe a break out from 102 will be very possible
US500 longus500
LONG
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
19.12.24 SPX 5872 : Sector RotationRegarding the last 15 to 20 months, on monthly chart, you will find the comparison between the major sectors within the SPX: semiconductors, finance, retailer goods, information technology.
What is interesting: sector information technology still rising, no cut, no descending, linear rsining, not hyperpolic, which is still a sign of exuberation.
The largest companies in this sector:
Oracle, Microsoft, nvidia, adobe, accenture, intel, cisco, salesforce, apple.
So main question is: if information technology is our favorite for 2025, which of the companies are the relative strongest and at fair price/earning. Answer will be given in separate chart.
And then we will well prepared downmove in SPX which i expect in jan/feb for 10-20%.
Dan, 19th of September.
Retest of the rising wedgeHuge buyings took place today, but on bigger timeframes it looks like just a retest of the rising wedge. There are also hidden bear divergences on 1-4 tf on US500, US100 and US30. I guess we will see continuation of the correction to 5730-5650 area next week. The idea will be invalidated if the price returns into the rising wedge (crosses the purple trendline).
Big channelLooks like S&P is heading towards the top of a big channel that began from October 2023 low. This is an attempt to predict when and where it would happen, which is approximately on November 18 at 6115.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable volatility after reaching our critical support level of Mean Support 5870. Subsequently, it demonstrated a robust upward recovery. This development is anticipated to facilitate the impending phase of the renewed interim rebound, with the objective of retesting the Key Resistance level at 6090, thereby paving the way for continuing the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to recognize that a retest of the Mean Support 5870 remains a great possibility.
Accumulating VOO ETF This is the ETF that I am invested in for the long haul......So, if my prediction is right, this fall to close the gap would provide a good opportunity to add more.
Last night , 3% fall is pretty scary , due to Fed's announcement of rate cut so it might not play out as I had shown in this chart. That means, after closing the gap, there is a possibility that it might falls further.........
Please DYODD
Weekly 'composite index' RSI signals sell - 2000 repeat coming?Combined market indices divided by DXY has accurately signaled market expansion and contraction for more than 30 years. In the 'Internet Bubble' timeframe, although a RSI sell signal occurred, the market regained lost ground in 2000 prior to a multi-year sell-off. We see a similar run-up, sell signal, recovery now.
Is this time different? Or will we see a decline beginning January-February 2025.
SPX500 H4 |Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,033.76 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,121.24 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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US500 evening analysisTechnical analysis of US500.
This analysis has price in wave 4 of (5).
Wave 4 would appear to be an Elliott Triangle Wave.
If accurate, wave 5 of (5) would provide one more all-time-high to complete top (unless truncated).
Price is very unlikely to tag median line of pitchfork (red line), a bearish side which suggests price should fall back to 5835.6 at a minimum.
Count valid for price below 6197.
S&P 500 Bullish Outlook Pending Sustained Break Above 1M PPHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 has closed above the 1-month pivot point, signaling potential for further upside, even though sellers are currently exerting strong pressure. What we need now is a sustained position above the 1-month pivot point, and if that occurs, we could be in for a significant move upward!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Market Breadth showing Weakness Market Breadth showing Weakness. Drops back below key level.
Yield curve starting to steepen, breaking the longest inverted period in history.
Looking for the next red monthly inside candle early next year to start getting bearish.
Only two rate cuts anticipated next year instead of four.
NEW IDEA FOR S&P500The S&P 500 index is engaged in channel ceiling resistance at 6084 points on the four-hour timeframe, and given the bullish tendencies of the Alligator indicator, there is a possibility of the price increasing to the 161.8% Fibo resistance at 6150 points.
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate.
So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2024 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
[Education] The Brutal Truth About Trading DisciplineHere's what nobody tells you about trading discipline. It's not about motivation or willpower. You can't just "try harder" to be disciplined. If it were that simple, everyone would be profitable by now.
Think about these scenarios. You see a setup forming but it's not quite perfect. You take the trade anyway because "close enough is good enough". Your stop loss is about to get hit, but you move it because you "feel" the market will reverse. You're down for the week and decide to risk 5% instead of your usual 1% to "recover losses".
Sound familiar? These aren't strategy problems. These are discipline problems.
Why Discipline Is Harder Than It Looks
When you're backtesting, everything seems easy. You can fast forward. Drawdowns can be recovered easily. You don't feel the emotional impact of losing trades. You're not watching your real money disappear.
But in live trading, every loss feels personal. It sucks when you miss an opportunity that could have given you a homerun trade. When a winning trade turns into a loss, you feel like pulling out your hair.
I remember one trade where I had a perfect setup. Everything aligned with my trading plan. I got greedy. I didn’t close my trade at 2R profit as planned. I held onto the trade. The market reversed. My winning trade turned into a loss.
That one moment of indiscipline cost me $500. But the real cost was much higher. It damaged my confidence and made me doubt my strategy.
The Hidden Cost of Lack of Discipline
Let's talk numbers. A strategy with 40% win rate and 1:2 RRR is profitable. However, if you cut winners early, that same strategy becomes a losing one. Instead of closing at 1:2 RRR, you closed at 1:1 RRR. With an average of 1:1 RRR, you need at least a 50% win rate to be breakeven. Things will get worse if you increase risk. If you increase your risk and lose, that one bad trade can wipe out a month of profits.
The Framework That Changed Everything
After blowing multiple accounts, I developed this simple framework that transformed my trading:
Pre-Trade Checklist
Write down entry, stop loss, and target BEFORE entering
Calculate position size based on 1% risk
Take a screenshot of your analysis
Compare setup with your trading plan
During Trade Management
No looking at charts if you're set-and-forget
No moving stop losses unless to breakeven
No adding to losing positions
No checking P&L constantly
Post-Trade Review
Journal every trade, win or lose
Score yourself on discipline, not profits
Review weekly to identify patterns
Celebrate when you follow rules, regardless of outcome
The Psychology Behind Discipline
Here’s something interesting. When I trade funded accounts, my discipline improves dramatically. Why? Because it's not my money. I treat it like a business. It’s capital I would lose if I am not disciplined with my trades.
This taught me something crucial. To be disciplined, you need to trade like a business, not a gambler. You have to focus on the process, and not the outcomes. You won’t be able to predict the outcome anyway. Accept that losses are part of trading. They are your business expenses. Once you’ve accepted that losing is inevitable, you will be able to keep your emotions out of trading.
Taking Action: Your Next Steps
Here’s what you should do next after learning from my framework. First, start small. Use a demo account to practice following rules. If you want to trade live, then trade minimal size while you build your discipline in trading. Only scale up when you can follow your plan for 20 trades straight. If you break your rules for 1 trade, restart the whole process. Next, create accountability for yourself. Share your trades with a mentor or trading buddy. Post your analysis online before entering trades. Review your trades at the end of the week. See if you have broken any of your trading rules this week. Lastly, build better habits. Set up your trading environment for success by removing distractions during trading hours. Keep your phones and social media away from you. Create a pre-trade ritual. That can be meditating, or simply just close your eyes. Remember to also reward yourself for following rules, not for profits.
The Transformation You Can Expect
When you are disciplined, your equity curve becomes smoother. You will not see a big drop in your equity curve due to excessive loss taken on 1 trade. Your stress levels decrease and confidence increases. You aren’t afraid of being wrong and being FOMO’d into entering earlier. As such, your results become consistent.
Remember, every successful trader you admire has gone through this same journey. The difference between them and the 95% who fail isn't their strategy. It's their discipline.
I'm now managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, not because I found a better strategy, but because I finally learned to follow my rules.
The question isn't whether you know what to do. It's whether you can do what you know you should do.
S&P 500 - sidewaysUS stock indices finished lower on Tuesday with the broad-based, domestically-focused Russell 2000 leading the decline. The Russell represents US mid-to-smaller-cap stocks, and closed down 1.2%. It has now lost over 5% since making a fresh all-time high three weeks ago, after rallying 11% in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in early November. The Dow has dropped around 3.5% from its own record high in early December. Yesterday’s loss meant that the old school, price-weighted index has registered nine successive losing sessions, its worst run in over six years. In contrast, the S&P 500 continues to consolidate just below all-time highs, while the NASDAQ 100 posted its own record high on Monday. Tech stocks continue to garner investor interest, despite their considerable outperformance in 2024. This morning, Tesla dropped 3%, pulling back a touch from its own all-time high hit on Monday. This followed news that the EV giant’s Shanghai plant manager is leaving the company. In contrast, NVIDIA jumped 3%, bouncing off the nine week low hit yesterday. Longer term US Treasury yields continue to creep up. The yield on the 10-year is back to a fresh four week high, above 4.40% and closing in on the potentially problematic level above 4.50%. This level could prove to be a headwind for equities. Bond yields will be in sharp focus this evening as the Federal Reserve announces its final rate decision of the year. The consensus expectation is that the Fed’s FOMC will cut by 25 basis points, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.50% for a total 100 basis points-worth of rate cuts this year, beginning in September. But likely of greater importance will be the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where members give their forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds rate for next year and beyond. This will provide a set of guidelines for investors who currently predict just 50 basis points of additional cuts in 2025. Contrast this with September’s SEP when the FOMC forecast 100 basis points-worth of cuts next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also host a press conference which will be of great interest to market participants. The prevailing view is that the Fed will accompany the rate cut with hawkish comments, indicating that it’s time to take a pause in loosening monetary policy. This seems wise, given the incoming Trump administration, the recent uptick in inflation, decent US economic growth and the strength of the US stock market.
S&P forming double top patternEverything is on the chart. S&P forming double top pattern now.
Its might falling down hard in the next fews mont. 2024 will be a darkest years.
The Bitcoin Dilemma.The Bitcoin Dilemma.
Unlimited Upside Potential
Since Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculative growth capital flows, much like the S&P 500, it has the potential, over very long periods of time, for continual price increases.
$100K, MIL:1M , $10M, even higher...
Unlimited Downside Risk
Unlike an index of stocks, which can rotate out underperforming companies, Bitcoin as a standalone asset cannot.
S&P 500 in comprised of 11 sectors, where an underperforming sector can pick up the slack, as capitals rotate out of the leaders. Bitcoin cannot.
If faith in Bitcoin wanes or it is outcompeted by newer technologies or regulatory changes, there is no mechanism to replace it or adapt its structure.
This makes it susceptible to large drops in value if the market turns negative, with theoretically no bottom in sight.
#bitcoin #spx #capitalflows
With all that said, I am a chart trader.
I will follow the trends, using proper risk and money management, no matter how compelling (or not) a narrative or story line is.
Hope you enjoyed my thoughts on this delicate subject for some!
Remember, there is always something we do not know, and accepting that is the 1st step to growing and learning.
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout.
Levels to watch: $6.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPX path from here 12/6/2024Refer to the chart for two potential scenarios in the SPX:
Bullish Scenario: A break and sustained hold above 6100 could confirm an upward move.
Bearish Scenario: The current level may act as resistance, leading to a gap fill at 6050, followed by a retest, offering a strong shorting opportunity targeting 5750-5850.
