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240823 Market Outlook $SPX $DJI $VOO $SPY $QQQChart S&P overlay Fed interest rate a few conclusions: 1. Stocks can rise and fall throughout rate cut cycle; 2. Rise in stocks is usually associated with minimum interest rate in the cycle; 3. US stocks were rising throughout rate hike cycle in later years; 4. More money supply management tools were introduced in last quarter century like QE policy; 5. More tools like Circuit Breaker were introduced to stop panic selling in US stocks since Financial crisis 2008; 6. The market has become more certain and efficient; 7. Investors must always recognize the market situation, cuz US management is research based and one cycle is different from another. A new prosperous cycle is enact at the moment. Cheers
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
Could this be a big bat pattern?SPX went parabolic after breaking the 1.61 of the bottoming swing. This move has now extended to the 2.61 of that fib set and currently sold off to under it. It's possible this is a bat pattern. If it is, then we probably made a high yesterday. One caveat of the bat to always keep in mind is if it fails it can evolve into a crab and when that happens you are essentially "Right" but you're going to get spiked out. Always a risk to keep in mind when trading a bat. We have a similar pattern in the DJI. Interestingly, we have not made as deep retracements in the RUT and Nasdaq. Nasdaq actually looking much like a classic bull trap. The possible Nasdaq bull trap and bat patterns in DJI and SPX resulted in me opening swing shorts in DJI, SPX and Nasdaq yesterday. Waiting to see if we can make the follow through break today. Will trail stops and add to positions if we do.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
11
S&P500 / Rise in Anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole AddressStock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The S&P 500 recently pulled back from its resistance at 5643 and is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 5584 and 5620, awaiting a decisive breakout. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 5644 is necessary to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at 5675. If 5675 is breached, it could confirm a bullish trend continuation. Bearish Scenario: Should the price remain below 5584 and close a 4-hour candle beneath this level, it could signal the onset of a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 5525 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5602 Resistance Levels: 5620, 5644, 5676 Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5460 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5620 and 5460. Current Trend: Bearish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame... We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations. Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy. Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance. When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line. WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW - I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade. On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
SP:SPX
by I3ig_Trades
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Final Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
SPX500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 5593.53, which is a pullback resistance Our take profit will be at 5504.44, a pullback support level close to 23.6% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be at 5673.53, a swing high resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance. Why SP500 needs a Price Correction? A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction: 1. Overvaluation: When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. 2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking: When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels. 3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty: Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality. 4. Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices. 5. Profit-Taking by Investors: After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels. Conclusion Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SP:SPXShort
by MiguelFTCurado
3
SPX | Strongest Bearish Action Since 2022We are likely witnessing the very beginning, the start of the most dramatic crash since the year 2022. This will be the most steep, fast and brutal correction in several years. Don't get me wrong. I am not trying to scare anybody nor create panic, just sharing a simple truth based on data coming from the chart. Based on market cycle, price dynamics and TA experience. ➢ The SPX is about to resume its corrective phase. The three weeks up is called a "pull-back," a natural market "reaction," an "inverted correction," a "bounce," and so on. The thing is that this isn't an actual bullish move but the correction of a bearish move. Since this correction is over, the initial bearish move that started mid-July will resume. ➢ Basics, basics, basics. We have a lower high, this will lead to a lower low. ➢ Believe it or not, cry or scream, it doesn't matter... Down we go! ➢ Prepare for the crash. You have plenty of time. Thanks a lot for your support. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by AlanSantana
26
S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high. The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September. SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
SP:SPXLong
by AlyaAkram
The S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic HighThe S&P 500 Index Approaches Historic High On 2 August, we analysed the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, where we: → Constructed an ascending channel A-B with a median line shown as a dotted line; → Highlighted the risk of a bearish breakout (as indicated by the red arrow). Since then: → The price dropped by more than 5% to the 5 August low, doubling the width of the A-B channel towards point C – the B line became the median of a wider channel. The index's decline was driven by recession fears, based on weak US labour market data; → However, the price then began to recover from the lower boundary of the wider channel, indicating that recession fears have subsided and the rally continues; → The price has now returned close to historical highs. Yesterday, the minutes from the FOMC meeting on 30-31 July were released, revealing that the vast majority of participants noted that if data continues to align with expectations, it might be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting. The S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) index remained largely unchanged on this news – this indicates market participants' belief that interest rates will likely be cut in September, which would stimulate economic growth, company performance, and stock indices. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart today shows that: → On 7-8 August, bears attempted to resume the downward trend but failed; → In mid-August, price action made the trendlines shown in purple relevant; → On 15 August, the B line was confidently broken (indicated by the blue arrow); → The dotted line is showing signs of resistance. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that bulls have regained control of the market after the sharp decline in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in early August. If the sentiment remains unchanged, we could see attempts to reach a new historical high. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2