Tell me again why the MACRO landscape is not BULLISH for Silver?Bear market rally for SPX versus long term yields.
Silver enjoying the ride.
#silver #spx #yields #gold #oil #copper #uranium
SP500FT trade ideas
Down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started a correction down (wave 2).
I think we could see a continuation of the downmove next week to finish the correction.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX500 Trade Idea: Bearish Reversal SetupI am currently watching SPX500 for a potential bearish reversal to the downside. The price action is indicating a weakening uptrend as we approach key support at 5666.40.
Key Support Level: 5666.40
Trigger: A daily close below this level will confirm the breakout, flipping the previous support into resistance. In turn, that will be a fakeout in the market
If the price closes below 5666.40, I will be looking for a retest of this level. Once confirmed as resistance, it would signal a continuation of the downward move.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Upon a successful retest of 5666.40 (now acting as resistance).
Stop-Loss: Above the previous high formed during the retest.
Target: I am aiming for the next support area near 4790.95, which aligns with a key historical level of demand.
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio if the bearish reversal plays out as expected. I will be closely monitoring for confirmation before entering the trade.
Eddy C | Swing Trader
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the preceding week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of Sep 27, the index adhered to the anticipated behavior by attaining the robust support level at Mean Sup 5700. This notable resurgence in the primary trend will likely prompt a robust bull movement toward the completed Inner Index Rally at 5763, with a high probability of surpassing it and progressing towards the awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840 within the upcoming trading session. It is imperative to acknowledge that reaching these objectives will trigger a volatile downward sentiment price action.
Invite Only to Followers (Seasonal Investing with Dynamic Kelly)The indicator builds on top of the existing seasonality indicator in some simple, but powerful ways. It's invite only and only to followers. I don't ever charge for scripts but I want to grow my followers so I'm setting this to invite only to try and break 1000 followers.
Believe it or not, this can be used as a drop in replacement for DCA, or used for options trading.
The goal here get people away from the emotions involved in price based indicators and instead focus their attention on long term, risk adverse % returns...
In other words, buy below the average % return or sell when its above the average return, in combination with technical indicators.
Risk Management: Behind the hood, I use a modified Kelly Criterion that provides a mathematical approach to optimizing position sizes, but it requires careful consideration of probabilities and user risk tolerance. Misestimation of these factors can lead to increased risk. Users are encouraged to combine this tool with other risk management techniques to protect their capital.
Seasonality Limitations: Past performance does not guarantee future results. The seasonal trends presented by this indicator are based on historical data and may not be predictive of future outcomes, especially in a highly volatile or unpredictable market environment.
Tool Limitations: The Seasonal Investing indicator is best used as a supplementary analysis tool rather than as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is recommended to use it alongside other forms of technical and fundamental analysis.
Position Sizing with Dynamic Kelly Criterion:
This indicator calculates position sizes dynamically using the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Ratio is used to determine the optimal position size that aims to maximize returns while managing risk. The position size is then adjusted using the Adjusted Kelly Fraction, which takes into account user-defined risk preferences and broader economic conditions (e.g., a dovish or hawkish Fed stance). Users can input values for their capital available, risk tolerance, margin rate, and other parameters to tailor position sizes to their own requirements.
Visual Representation Using Boxes:
The indicator draws projection boxes on the chart to visually represent each month's expected performance. These boxes are color-coded to reflect the calculated average return and extend from the beginning to the end of the month.
This visual feature allows users to easily spot seasonal patterns and assess the expected price movement for the current month.
User Interface Settings:
The indicator provides a variety of customizable settings:
Table Position: Users can choose the position of the heatmap table (left, center, or right) to best fit their trading interface.
Table Dimensions: Users can adjust the width and height of the table to control its appearance on the chart.
Skipping Specific Months: Users can input specific months (e.g., YYYY-MM) to exclude from the analysis, allowing for greater flexibility if some months are deemed to have unreliable or anomalous data.
Heatmap Metrics Toggle: Users can choose which metrics (average return, standard deviation, positive percentage, and position size) are displayed in the table.
Dynamic Data Updates:
The indicator's data updates dynamically as new data becomes available. This means traders are always working with the latest analysis, which is crucial for making informed decisions in a fast-paced trading environment.
How to Use the Indicator
Customize Inputs and Settings:
Start by entering the starting year for analysis to define the historical range for evaluating seasonality.
Set the available capital, risk tolerance, margin rate, and maintenance rate to tailor the position size calculation to your financial situation and risk appetite.
Customize color settings for both positive and negative values to better visualize monthly trends.
Review Seasonal Patterns:
The heatmap and summary table will help you assess how different months have performed historically.
Use the projection boxes on the chart to visualize the expected monthly price movement based on historical averages.
Analyze Risk and Position Size:
- Review the Position Size metric for each month to determine the appropriate amount of capital to allocate.
The Adjusted Kelly Fraction helps to account for different market conditions (e.g., Fed stance) to ensure that position sizing is optimized in response to external factors.
Ignore Specific Months if Necessary:
If there are specific months that should not be included in the analysis, use the Ignored Months input to exclude them from the calculations.
Make Data-Driven Decisions:
By leveraging the average return, volatility (StDev), and positive return percentage, traders can identify which months are more likely to be favorable and adjust their trading strategy accordingly. The heatmap makes it easy to visualize trends, identify patterns, and determine which months are more reliable for trading.
Important Notes
Conclusion
The Seasonal Investing Indicator offers a powerful combination of seasonality analysis and risk-based position sizing, making it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By presenting information through an intuitive heatmap, detailed metrics, and dynamic position sizing, this indicator helps traders make data-driven decisions while managing risk in a disciplined manner. It provides a flexible, interactive interface that can be customized to fit individual needs, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
S&P 500 Index Market Exposure and Sector Insights The S&P 500 Index is currently in a confirmed uptrend as of October 4th, maintaining support above its 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) . With 4 distribution days , market conditions suggest some caution, but the overall uptrend remains intact.
Our current market exposure is recommended at 100% , reflecting confidence in the strength of the broader market.
Key Points:
Market Condition: The S&P 500 remains above the critical 21-DMA level, indicating continued positive momentum. This key support should be monitored in the coming sessions for signs of potential changes in market direction.
Industry Strength: Strong sectors include Technology and Communication Services , with leading stocks showing resilience. Weaker sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are underperforming, with multiple stocks trading below their 50-DMA and 200-DMA .
Opportunities: Leading stocks continue to demonstrate setups for potential gains, with key players in the Tech sector showing strong bases or breakout potential. We advise focusing on high-quality setups in stronger sectors while avoiding underperforming segments trading below critical moving averages.
The key takeaway here is to remain invested in leading areas while keeping an eye on market exposure and distribution day count for any shifts in sentiment.
Let us know—are you focusing on defensive sectors, or do you see opportunities in growth industries?
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Market might push higher in the short term, but....Market has refused to fall in the past few weeks. Whatever Fed is doing is working in the short term. With US election around the corner, it is highly unlikely the market will make any drastic moves until the end of this year. Seasonality is also on the side of the bulls. Geopolitical headwinds have stalled the progress but couldn't turn the tide; for now. The path of least resistance is up, and we will most likely see the run up to fib level resistance at 6300 before the end of year.
Market maybe also foreseeing turmoil right after US election. No matter who wins, the opposing party will most definitely fight the results; specially if it is close. There might be civil unrest and riots and markets do not like that. This could be the backdrop for the primary wave 4 drop which could last 6 to 8 months until the situation calms down and regular life ensues. even in ending diagonal situation, wave 4 might not come all the way down to wave 1 territory. And bearish sentiment will most definitely will be the prevalent one. Market might do what no one expects and put in another high by end of 2026 and make everyone bullish again only to start the super cycle correction.
I have no idea how bad the super cycle correction will be and how we will survive it. But one thing for sure, it is coming!
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS RISING WEDGE PATTERNHere on S&P 500 price has form a rising wedge pattern and likely for fall as result go for SHORT have to be considered if price reach line 5567.31 and be targeting profit should be around 5394.09 and 5196.00 .
7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy Like a ProYou’ve got a trading strategy—great. But if you think that’s where the work ends, think again. A good strategy is like a sports car: It’s fast, fun, and dangerous… unless you keep it tuned and under control. And given how volatile modern trading is, yesterday’s strategy can quickly become tomorrow’s account-drainer. So, how do you keep your trading strategy sharp and in profit mode? Let’s dive into seven ways to fine-tune your setup like a pro.
1️⃣ Backtest Like Your Profits Depend on It (Spoiler: They Do)
Before you let your strategy loose in the wild, backtest it against historical data. It’s not enough to say, “This looks good.” Run the numbers. Find out how it performs over different time frames, market conditions, and asset classes — stocks , crypto , forex , and more. If you’re not backtesting, you run the risk of trading blind — use the sea of charting tools and instruments around here, slap them on previous price action and see how they do.
💡 Pro Tip : Make sure to backtest with realistic conditions. Don’t cheat with perfect hindsight—markets aren’t that kind.
2️⃣ Optimize for Risk, Not Just Reward
Everyone gets starry-eyed over profits, but the best traders obsess over risk management. Adjust your strategy to keep risk in check. Ask yourself: How much are you willing to lose per trade? What’s your win-loss ratio? A strategy that promises massive returns but ignores risk is more like a ticking time bomb than a way to pull in long-term profits.
💡 Pro Tip : Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1. It’s simple: risk $1 to make $2, and you’ve got a buffer against losses. Want to go big? Use 5:1 or why not even 15:1? Learn all about it in our Asymmetric Risk Reward Idea.
3️⃣ Diversify Your Strategy Across Markets
If you’re only trading one asset or market, you’re asking for trouble (sooner or later). Markets move in cycles, and your strategy might crush it in one but flop in another. Spread your strategy across different markets to smooth out the rough patches.
💡 Pro Tip : Don’t confuse this with over-trading. You’re diversifying, not chasing every pop.
4️⃣ Fine-Tune Your Time Frames
Your strategy might be solid on the 1-hour chart but struggle on the 5-minute or daily. Different time frames bring different opportunities and risks. Test your strategy across multiple time frames to see where it shines and where it stumbles.
💡 Pro Tip : Day traders? Shorten those time frames. Swing traders? Stretch ’em out. Find the sweet spot that aligns with your trading style.
5️⃣ Stay Agile with Market Conditions
No strategy is perfect for every market condition. What works in a trending market could blow up in a range-bound one. Optimize your strategy to adapt to volatility, volume, and trend shifts. Pay attention to news events , central bank meetings, and earnings reports — they can flip the script fast.
💡 Pro Tip : Learn to identify when your strategy isn’t working and take a step back. Not every day is a trading day.
6️⃣ Incorporate Multiple Indicators (But Don’t Go Overboard)
More indicators = more profits, right? Wrong. It’s easy to fall into the trap of loading up your charts with a dozen indicators until you’re drowning in lines and signals. Keep it simple — combine 3 to 5 complementary indicators that confirm your strategy’s signals, and ditch the rest.
💡 Pro Tip : Use one indicator for trend confirmation and another for entry/exit timing.
7️⃣ Keep Tweaking, But Don’t Blow Out of Proportion
Here’s the rub: There’s a fine line between optimization and over-optimization. Adjusting your strategy too much based on past data can lead to overfitting — your strategy works perfectly on historical data but crashes in live markets. Keep tweaking, but always test those tweaks in live conditions to make sure they hold up.
💡 Pro Tip : Keep a trading journal to track your tweaks. If you don’t track it, you won’t know what’s working and what’s not. Get familiar with the attributes of a successful trading plan with one of our top-performing Ideas: What’s in a Trading Plan?
💎 Bonus: Never Stop Learning
The market’s constantly changing and your strategy needs to change with it. Keep studying, keep testing, and keep learning. The moment you think you’ve mastered the market is the moment it humbles you.
Optimizing a trading strategy isn’t a one-and-done deal—it’s an ongoing process. By fine-tuning, testing, and staying flexible, you can keep your strategy sharp, profitable, and ahead of the curve. Optimize smart, trade smart!
Bearish Pressure Builds Amid Middle East Tensions, Targets 5675Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading
Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the upcoming U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction.
Technically:
The price has reached our target and continues to decline towards 5675 and 5643 while remaining below 5713 and 5732.
To shift to a bullish trend, the price must break above 5732.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5715
Resistance Levels: 5732, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5584
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while under 5732
previous idea:
Don’t be misled by the initial NFP reactionAll the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected.
NFP expectations: What to look out for
As we look towards the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expectations are that the US economy has added around 147,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement from the 142,000 we saw in the previous month. Nothing earth-shattering here but do watch out for revisions for the prior months. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% y/y for the second month in a row with a projected month-over-month reading of +0.3%. If these numbers hold, it’s a sign that the labour market remains surprisingly resilient, and that might just embolden the Fed to keep its foot on the brake when it comes to deciding the size of their interest rate cuts. After all, the Fed has made it clear: if the economy stays strong and inflation doesn’t cool down, they’re going to ease off on loosening monetary policy slowly.
How will the US dollar, gold and indices react?
A solid jobs report could trigger a bullish reaction for the US dollar, especially if it takes some of the wind out of the sails for those hoping for another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The logic is simple: a healthy labour market reduces the need for aggressive rate cuts, making the dollar more attractive to traders. On the other hand, if the NFP report disappoints, then this could trigger a potential recovery in pairs such as EUR/USD, and give gold another boost.
Once the NFP dust settles, the focus will return to geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East. With the markets obviously closed during the weekend, oil, index futures and the dollar pairs could all create a gap at the Asian open Monday should something big happen between Israel and Iran on Saturday or Sunday. Given this risk, we could see the dollar finding renewed support later, even if NFP misses slightly. By the same token, indices may be unable to hold onto much of their potential NFP-related gains.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Payroll
Ok - today’s trading range, and it’s a wide one. We have the FOMC rate cut upgag in today’s range, and also ATH’s.
The 35EMA and the 30min 200MA are front and center in the middle of the trading range. It looks fun, y’all.
1hr 200MA down at the bottom of the FOMC gap… anyone looking at that hoping for a drop for a nice bounce there?
What are your thoughts?
Have fun today, y'all 💃🏻
spxSpx has been in an uptrend for a long time. It was recently using the 5,660 level as a resistance area. It has now broken that resistance and is now using it as support. It is possible that we will see new highs with the upcoming election results and balance sheets.
S&P MACRO BULLISH 2025Hello
RSI 50 macro analysis show a break in the trendline, and a short period for retest before making continuation like in 2017, the patterns are identical.
We are in the begging of a new increase of M2 Money Supply, big stimulus around the world, so be bullish and optimistic.
The vertical yellow line are the Halving Bitcoin Cycles, the election years.
Like always, in the second part of October things come to uptrend right away.
The chart is having the Gaussin Channel and Pi Cycle for bitcoin.
Bullish forward to 2025, toward the red trenline on the chart, making new highs until reach it and then...taking all out of the markets.
Spreads never lieThe 2-year sell and 10-year buy spread has returned to levels above 0, stabilizing around the 0.15 range.
Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises.
In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle.
As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months.
The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.
Is cheap valuation a reason to buy ?Valuation can remain cheap for months and years without any decent increase in share price. So on its own , it is not a good barometer to purchase it. However, given the QE stimulus/rescue package that the Chinese Government has rolled out a week ago and creating more chaos and euphoria amongst the institution and retail investors worldwide, I would say this combo is definitely giving the stock market (HSI, CSI300) like morphine to a cancer patient.
Over 8% rally in a single day ! We are not referring to the individual stock but the index as a whole and this is BIG news, never happen since 2008.
Now we compare the two index against the others , we can clearly see how high India, Taiwan and US have gone up thus far. At 30x earnings, US is definitely overvalued. But, just because it is overvalued, it does mean the share price will keep tumbling down immediately. Not to forget, this is the election year and October is a boring/down month but towards Nov/Dec, whoever wins, we can expect another surge in the stock market in US. Next year, what is going to happen , your guess is as good as mine.
Returning to HK and China market, we can see they are cheap in terms of valuation , 4.5 years bear market and the consumer confidence is at all time low. Socially, this is not good for the government and the risk of a liquidity trap can be high. That is, government continue to pump money into the economy but consumers refuse to spend , taking only the vouchers to spend and that's it, causing no real growth to the market. The fear is employment market is bad, wages are not increasing, AI are replacing jobs (and creating ), only and main asset for wealth accumulation - property is at all time low.
So, form your own decision and allocate your capital to China .
Global M2 Money Supply Vs S&P500So when we look just at the Global M2 money supply, we can see its increasing and sharply.
However, when you look at BTC, BTC is lagging behind, and the increase in M2 Global supply has yet to have an effect on BTC where we would expect to see a price increase as M2 money supply increases.
If you compare the M2 Global money supply against S&P500 though, it tells us a different story, where the S&P is leading and BTC is lagging.
Signalling to me a catch up in BTC is inevitable at this stage and its being squeezed at these levels as money flow increases.
A good signs imo and no doubt BTC catches up to S&P500
A Major Storm in the HorizonRecently we saw new All Time Highs (ATH), the indexes have been on the rise. However there's something in the works. The so called "Fear Index" TVC:VIX has been stubbornly increasing its level and for a while it has breached the 20 level. Which is the borderline from a calmed ascending market and a correction.
The level of the correction may go from just an adjustment in the trend, sending the index back to the long term moving averages, like the 50/100. This is not yet a bear market, which can't be forecasted from just the levels we have at this time.
The FED was aggressive with its first interest rate cut, the market is looking forward for margin at a discount and it knows how to ask for it. We'll have to keep an eye in the Fed balance sheet, the bond yield, inflation and unemployment.
The momentum divergences in the upper time frame have been increasing. Higher levels with lower momentum, this is a sign of reversal. So far it's about time for a trend correction, a bear market will be seen if the main moving averages (20, 50) in the Weekly are breached and its support turns into resistance.
Good Trading Everyone !
Arabian XXXOh, the market’s wild, up and down,
One day you’re king, next day a clown!
You bought the dip, or so you thought,
But now that dip’s a deeper spot.
You watch the tickers, heart in race,
Wondering if you’ve lost the chase.
“Hold the line!” the forums cheer,
While your portfolio sheds a tear.
Sell in May, and go away?
Or double down and hope you’ll stay?
Options, futures, ETFs—
All just ways to stress yourself!
But in the end, it’s just a ride,
Stocks will soar and stocks will slide.
So grab some coffee, don’t despair—
Tomorrow’s gains might clear the air!
Bulls and Bears zone for 10-03-2024Yesterday traders tried to rally but ended in a range bound day.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5748 --- 5746
Reports to watch:
PMI Composite Final 9:45AM
Factory Orders 10:00 AM
Historical Capital Rotation EventsOnly happened 3 previous times in over 100 years.
1931, 1970, 2002.
It's getting ready for the next one, right now!
#gold #silver #crudeoil #urnaium #copper #platinum
Correction TradeWhat we see here is that the market is consolidating after a bearish impulse, if the price creates a new low, we can expect further bearish impulse
