Bulls and Bears zone for 09-26-2024Yesterday S&P 500 made ATH before pulling back and closing down for the day.
Level to watch: 5830---5828
Report to watch:
US: Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM ET
SP500FT trade ideas
S&P 500 INDEX / Another ATH, WITH CORRECTIONS&P 500 Closes at Record Highs
The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, as we mentioned previously,
Technically: The price will be consolidating between 5784 and 5732 till breaking,
The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH at 5890 by breaking of 5784,
However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5732 to get 5675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5784
Resistance Levels: 5805, 5890
Support Levels: 5732, 5675, 5643
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Correction till 5732
Bullish above 5784
previous idea:
S&P500 Bullish Wave CountI have been keeping this count and avoiding activating this count because of my bias. But recent events and how the market has been moving has forced my hand. I am showing this count on a weekly basis because there are issues with wave counting rules that shows up on the daily timeframe.
Over here, what you see is that the 5th Aug fall is now a wave 4 on the highest level shown in this chart, and the move up since is a wave 5 move.
This is consistent with the following events that are non-technical:
1. US debt ceiling removal until 1st Jan 2025.
2. US Presidential Election.
3. Sep Fed rate cut and probably further cut on or before the next FOMC.
4. China recent move that caused the Chinese and Hong Kong market to fly.
The existing issues with IWM and Nasdaq still below peak and showing such divergence is still a going concern that we will need to continue to monitor.
SPX500 Resistance Ahead!SPX500 keep growing in
An uptrend but the index
Will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance of 5645.15 and
After the retest we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish reaction!
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 26
No video again tonight but here is the trading range. Implied move is between 5685 - 5760 on the day. I’m looking to 5760/5670 spreads as of right now If we open up and it looks like we will based on futures.
35EMA has been holding us up since FOMC and it’s right in the middle today.
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
SPX Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,722.39.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,432.48 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Potential long tradeWhat we have here is a triangle pattern followed by a breakout and deep pullback followed by the second pullback, now if the price creates a higher high from here, we can go long.
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions
Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets.
Topics Covered:
How Are Interest Rates Traded?
Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies.
Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies.
Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself).
█ How Are Interest Rates Traded?
This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market.
Key Strategy Concepts Backtested:
Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism.
Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth.
Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons.
█ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases
This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods.
2001-2009
Trade Result: 67.02%
Holding Result: -31.19%
2019-2021
Trade Result: 19.28%
Holding Result: 25.22%
1971-Present
Trade Result: 444.13%
Holding Result: 5694.12%
█ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts
This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects.
1971-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4%
2001-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72%
2009-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92%
█ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts
This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes.
1971-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4%
2001-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22%
2009-Present
Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38%
Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26%
Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55%
Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54%
█ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies
The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below.
One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change.
█ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself)
Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open):
The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
Rally on stocks continue...We are not in bubble territory, we have room to continue.
For the present time, target is 6950 on SP500
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Resistance Level
sp500SP500 is currently in an ascending channel and there are currently two scenarios. Scenario 1 can fall to the lower support of the channel with the reaction it receives from the media and rise from there. Scenario 2 can directly break the median and rise to the upper resistance of the channel. Which do you think will happen?
S&P 500, More Gains Coming...
S&P 500 Closes at Record Highs
The S&P 500 index closed at all-time highs on Monday as markets assessed comments from three Federal Reserve officials regarding the central bank's recent monetary policy decisions.
Technically: The S&P 500 has reached the bullish target we previously identified, Now The bullish trend will continue towards another ATH, provided the price remains above 5731 and 5708.
However, a bearish trend will be confirmed if the price breaks below 5675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5730 - 5708
Resistance Levels: 5784, 5805, 5890
Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5621
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Trend: Above 5730 and 5708
previous idea:
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise:
This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears).
Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming.
This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg.
We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200.
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Sept 25
Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow
Easy Trading Range here today, much easier than QQQ, lol, that one is a mess… but here we have an easy one… the implied move for tomorrow is between 568 to 574 and the only two levels in tomorrow’s implied move are ATH’s at 572.88 and the 35EMA, which is a clear support since after FOMC…
Personally looking at 5765/5775 bear call spreads OR 5700/5690 bull put spreads depending on how we move tomorrow
GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
Spx scalping startetgyUsing indictor levels to scalp. Using bands with stochastic to see overbought oversold zones.
Ema crossing for short term scalps
Where will markets trend next? Planetary patterns give us clues!Solar Eclipses are major 6-month pivot points. The next one is on October 2, 2024. Invest By Cycles decodes planetary patterns and astrological cycles as an investing enhancement tool to complement classic fundamental and technical analysis.
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, rectangles, and colored levels.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
If the S&P chart does not react to close levels, this analysis will be invalid.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
S&P 500 channelGonna use this channel to find good short entry points. The correction will be confirmed when the price breaks out of it in the downward direction.
US500 Is Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,730.5.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,946.0.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX: positive but mixedThe market was highly anticipating the Fed's rate cut during their September FOMC meeting, but the 50 bps cut came as a sort of surprise. This is why the US equity markets were traded generally positive for the week, however, in a slightly mixed manner, like without a final conclusion whether the 50 bps was a good or bad move from the Fed. The S&P 500 started the week around the level of 5.610, and reached 5.727 at Thursday trading session, however, ending the week at the level of 5.702. The index posted a weekly gain of 1,36%.
The high rate cut was perceived positively by investors. They perceive that a lower interest rate environment will be supportive for businesses. Tech companies were the ones to gain, but also other industries. Analysts are now adjusting forecasts in terms of expectations that the S&P 500 companies will expand their earnings by 4,6% in the Q3.
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top.
If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one.
If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
