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(GET READY) Expected move for FOMC today in SPXSince making all-time highs on December 6, SPX has been consolidating back to the 30 minute 200 moving average and check out the 35 EMA today. We’ve been chopping around that 35 EMA on our trip back to the 30 minute 200MA average and they are right at the same level today. We are at a very critical point. Do we bounce here? Or do we break this 30 minute 200 moving average. The top of the implied move is at 6095 just underneath that we have a resistance at 6085 when we fill that gap 6015 for tomorrow so 6095, 6115 could be a place to look if you’re looking to sell spreads today on the move And then underneath us 6005, 5995 those are the two levels at the bottom of the trading range and the one hour 200 average is also there
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
S&P 500 - Forming a Bullish Flag or Pennant but not clear. Top?The S&P 500 appears to be moving very horizontal at the moment, possibly forming a bullish flag or pennant. However, the pattern is a little too horizontal to be clear, so its also possible this is a short term top of the market, possibly for end of the year profit taking and covering tax liabilities. A look back in the last 10 years of chart history does not show another example of the S&P 500 moving this clearly horizontal. The pattern has clear lower highs but the support line is razor sharp almost as if its artificial. Trade with caution.
SP:SPX
by swineninety9
How to Trade Lower Liquidity Festive MarketsWith the festive season upon us, there tends to be a natural decline in trading activity as many market participants step away to enjoy the holidays. This change in rhythm creates unique market dynamics, offering traders an opportunity to observe and adapt to a different set of conditions. Liquidity often decreases during this time, which can influence price behaviour, spreads, and volatility. Understanding these shifts can help you approach the markets with greater awareness and flexibility, whether you decide to trade actively or simply observe from the sidelines. What Happens in Lower Liquidity Markets? Lower liquidity means there are fewer buyers and sellers actively participating in the market. As a result, price movements can become less predictable. Even a relatively small order can cause larger-than-expected moves, creating the potential for heightened volatility. Spreads—particularly in less-traded instruments—may also widen, increasing transaction costs. This is something to keep an eye on, especially if you trade in smaller-cap stocks, emerging market currencies, or commodities with seasonal demand swings. However, it’s not all about increased volatility and wider spreads. Lower liquidity can also bring periods of calm to typically active markets, especially in the absence of major news or data releases. Adapting to the Festive Markets The key to navigating festive markets is adaptability. Here are some practical tips to help you stay on top of your trading this Christmas: 1. Focus on Major Markets and Instruments During periods of reduced liquidity, larger markets like major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks tend to remain more stable than smaller, niche instruments. Staying with these higher-liquidity markets can reduce the risk of unexpected price swings. 2. Be Selective with Trades The festive season isn’t the time to chase every opportunity. Instead, focus on high-quality setups and avoid overtrading. Patience can be your biggest asset when market conditions are unpredictable. 3. Adjust Your Risk Management Lower liquidity markets can lead to greater volatility, which means a single price move might reach your stop-loss or take-profit levels more quickly than expected. Consider adjusting your position sizes or widening your stop-loss levels to account for this. That said, any changes to your risk management approach should align with your overall trading strategy. 4. Keep an Eye on Key Levels In quieter markets, price tends to gravitate towards well-defined support and resistance levels. These levels often become even more significant, as fewer participants can break through them. 5. Pay Attention to News Events Even during the festive season, economic data releases and news events can spark movement. With fewer participants, the impact of these events may be amplified, so it’s worth staying informed. Useful Indicators for Festive Markets Using technical indicators can provide added clarity in lower liquidity conditions. Here are some tools to consider: • ATR (Average True Range): ATR can help you gauge market volatility. During low-liquidity periods, rising ATR values may signal increased volatility, while falling ATR values might indicate a quieter market. • Volume: Monitoring volume is crucial to understand the strength of price moves. During the festive period, lower volume is expected, but an unusual spike can indicate genuine interest in a breakout or trend. • Anchored VWAP: Anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) is a helpful tool for identifying key levels where trading volume has concentrated. Anchoring the VWAP to significant events, such as the start of the festive trading period, can provide dynamic support or resistance levels. • Keltner Channels: These are particularly useful for managing trades. Setting Keltner Channels to 2.5 ATR around a 20-day exponential moving average (standard settings) can help identify overextended moves. For instance, if the price breaks above the upper channel in a long trade, it may be a good signal to take profits into strength. Example: S&P 500 On the S&P 500, we can observe some classic festive market behaviour. While daily volume has remained steady, ATR has been declining since Thanksgiving, dropping to levels not seen since the summer. This suggests the market is consolidating near broken resistance—a key level—aligned with the Keltner Channel’s basis. Just below this area lies the VWAP anchored to the November swing low, creating a zone of confluent support that could attract higher levels of liquidity. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: The festive season introduces a unique set of market conditions that can challenge even experienced traders. Whether you choose to trade actively or observe from the sidelines, understanding how reduced liquidity affects price behaviour is key to navigating these quieter markets. By focusing on major instruments, refining your risk management, and leveraging key technical indicators like ATR, volume, Anchored VWAP, and Keltner Channels, you can adapt to the rhythm of the season and make the most of what the markets offer during this period. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
SANTA RALLY or BUST (FOMC)Market is likely to move the first hour and then become choppy. FOMC today at 2PM est and Powell speaks at 2:30. Semis look like they want to start moving with NVDA and ASML leading. Futures gapping a bit higher this morning, FOMC today so I’d wait until after 2:30pm to see how the market reacts to Powell SPX just in a range from 6034-6100 for now, SPX lots of resistance at 6071 and 6100 so be patient for now, under 6034 can test 6k. Let’s see if SPX gets through 6071 after FOMC SPX best to hold 6034 SPX Dec 20 6100c best above 6071 Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!! Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024. These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend. Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence. Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well. Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year. Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance. Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500. Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market. Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher. Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
SPX 4800 LONG SANTA RALLY UNTIL 2024 Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: Monitor key economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation. Positive economic data may support the upward movement of the S&P 500, while negative indicators could lead to volatility. Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates can impact the cost of borrowing and influence investor behavior. Keep an eye on central bank announcements and monetary policy changes. Corporate Earnings: Earnings season can significantly affect the S&P 500. Track corporate earnings reports for insights into the health of individual companies and the overall market. Geopolitical Events: Geopolitical developments, such as trade tensions or political instability, can impact market sentiment. Stay informed about global events that could affect the S&P 500.
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Trading with Multiple Time Frames: A Balanced ApproachWhy Use Multiple Time Frames ? In trading, understanding flow and target areas across different time frames is essential for precision. Each time frame provides a unique insight: Higher Time Frame (HTP) : Establishes the direction and target areas. Focal Time Frame : Serves as your primary or main frame of focus for trading decisions. Lower Time Frame (LTP) : Confirms the HTP’s direction and offers entry/exit points. Examples: If you are position trading (holding longer than 1 month) you focal time frame is the monthly, the weekly is the time frame that offers entry/exits and the Quarterly is the time frame that establishes the direction and target areas. If you are swing trading (holding longer than 1 week) then you focal time frame is the weekly, LTP is the daily for entry/exists and HTP is the monthly. If you trade intraday then HTP is the hourly, focal is 15min and LTP is the 5min. 🔎 Key Principles for Multi-Time Frame Analysis HTP Determines the Flow: Strong resistance or support on the higher time frame drives the market flow. Example: If HTP resistance is strong, the LTP will typically trend downward​ LTP Monitors the Setup: Use lower time frames to observe and confirm HTP predictions. Lower time frame bars should progressively move away from strong HTP levels​ Focus on Nearby and Further Out Areas: Nearby areas provide short-term strength or weakness. If a nearby area breaks, targets shift to further-out energy zones​ 🧩 Example Strategy: Integrating Time Frames Step 1: Identify a strong support/resistance area on the HTP (e.g., Weekly Chart). Step 2: Use the focal time frame (e.g., Daily Chart) to monitor for trend setups. Step 3: Zoom into the LTP (e.g., Hourly Chart) to: Confirm the setup. Look for price reactions and ideal entry points. Step 4: Set targets based on the HTP structure, while managing risk on the LTP. 🎯 Tips for Target Setting Targets are often defined where price terminates energy (e.g., HTP resistance/support levels). Monitor flow: If LTP flow aligns with HTP direction, the trade is on track. If nearby energy breaks, shift your target to the next further-out area​ 🚀 Final Thoughts The HTP shows the big picture; the LTP provides execution clarity. Always let the HTP guide you, and the LTP confirm your trade entries/exits. Remember: “Strength is strength until proven otherwise.” By combining multiple time frames, traders can trade confidently, anticipate targets, and stay in sync with the market flow.
SPREADEX:SPXEducation
by JordanMT
Is the financial system entering a new era?This chart is one of the clearest and most striking indicators of the S&P 500 and Monetary Expansion around the world on a monthly basis. Is history repeating itself or is the financial system entering a new era ? Markets are rising again after the Mortgage Real Estate Crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020. But what is behind this rise? Could the fact that the S&P 500 has held its value while the money supply has skyrocketed be a harbinger of a new growth cycle? What is remarkable; 
In the 2008 Real Estate Crisis, this ratio, which had been steadily moving above the trend line, was pulled down sharply and trapped below the trend line. For many years, there was an invisible pressure to maintain the trend below this line. Whenever the trend line started to be tested again, this rate was pushed down again by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 . January 2024 is a historic turning point; 
It managed to rise above the trend line after exactly 16 years and entered a steady uptrend. This development sends strong signals that a brand new economic order has been established in the world. So what happens now? 
After testing a new ATH level , what crisis or crises await us in the markets? Or is the financial system heading for a completely different course from the historical scenario this time?
SP:SPX
by ugurtash
A bullish outlook for S&P 500 trading next weekRecent Performance: The S&P 500 has shown a mixed performance recently, grappling with volatility yet managing to hold above significant support levels. After reaching highs earlier this month, the index has pulled back slightly, indicating some weakness in momentum. Despite this, seasonal trends towards year-end may provide a boost, although the declining market breadth suggests underlying challenges. - Key Insights: Investors should be cautious yet optimistic about the S&P 500 as we approach potential seasonal rallies. The mixed signals from market breadth and expert commentary on overvaluation underscore the importance of strategic trading. Focus on key support levels to confirm bullish trends and prepare to act if resistance levels are breached. - Expert Analysis: Market experts express a cautiously optimistic sentiment, with some anticipating a "Santa Rally" while others warn of the risks associated with overvaluation. The anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts adds to the bullish sentiment, though concerns over rising inflation and jobless claims need to be monitored closely. - Price Targets: Based on the current analysis, next week’s price targets and stop levels are set as follows: - Next week targets: T1 = 6,100, T2 = 6,200 - Stop levels: S1 = 6,040, S2 = 6,020 - News Impact: Key economic data releases, particularly the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18, are expected to play a significant role in market movements. Additionally, earnings reports from major corporations, along with the evolving geopolitical climate and challenges in China's economy, will further influence the sentiment surrounding the S&P 500, demanding vigilant attention from investors.
SP:SPXLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Sp500 for buyThe S&P 500 is currently showing bullish momentum, supported by strong corporate earnings and stabilizing economic conditions. As of today, it is trading at 5,699.98, reflecting significant growth year-to-date. Analysts project further upside due to strong fundamentals, including earnings growth and resilience in consumer spending. Technical analysis indicates the index remains within an upward channel, with potential resistance near 6,100, suggesting room for gains if economic stability persists​
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by iraza