Morning Market AnalysisSome simple ideas to decide who will win today - Bull or Bear. Watch the gaps!
SPCUSD trade ideas
The Election Was Support. Has it Become Resistance?Last year’s presidential election was a catalyst for stocks. Today’s idea considers its potentially shifting impact on sentiment.
The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is the range between 5597 and 5783. Those prices are the low of November 4 and the high of November 5, the Monday and Tuesday of election week.
On January 13, SPX pulled back to find support at the top of the range. That bounce seemed to reflect ongoing optimism about the coming administration. (Inauguration was exactly a week later.)
The index remained above that zone through early March before sliding below it. Prices have now rebounded but appear to be stalling at the bottom of the price range. Does that show a newer anxiety about policy?
Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) made lower highs from early December -- despite SPX making incrementally higher highs. That kind of bearish divergence may be consistent with a longer-term trend fading.
Third, SPX is under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Staying here may confirm a break of its longer-term uptrend.
Finally, the 50-day SMA recently crossed below 100-day SMA. Both are falling. That may also suggest prices have stopped rising.
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SPX500 2nd Leg Down? 21 Mar 2025
Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bull bar in its lower half with a long tail above.
In yesterday's report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above. Or if the retest would lack follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area.
The market formed a retest of the March 19 high, but stalled and formed a lower high.
We said the move while strong, likely was simply a bull leg and a buy vacuum test of the trading range high. If true, sellers would emerge near the trading range high, which was the case. (Please refer to the tagged post)
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
The pullback is currently underway but has a lot of overlapping candlesticks. The bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of testing the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the market may open lower today. If the market continues down, they hope the March 18 low will act as support, forming a small double bottom bull flag.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increase the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up.
They hope the leg to retest the March 13 low will begin soon. They must create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of another leg down.
The prior climactic selloff and parabolic wedge increase the odds of a pullback which is underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increase.
So far, the pullback has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which indicates that the bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar today.
Or will the market open lower but lack follow-through selling, like yesterday?
I will update again later today.
Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready | SPX Analysis 21 Mar 2025
It’s Friday, the market’s half-asleep, and I’ve redrawn my trendlines more times than I’ve refreshed my tea.
The weekly chart (top left, if you're playing along at home) is shaping up to close with a tight little range bar, which basically tells us what we already knew: we're in a classic sideways smush. (technical term)
And yes—I've once again spent time repositioning the bull/bear boundary levels, only to find that my actual triggers haven't changed a bit. The Bollinger Band pinch just confirms the stallout. Nothing new. Nothing sexy. Just… waiting.
And honestly? I’m fine with that. Because Monday’s “don’t rush it” dodge saved me from getting trapped on the wrong side of a lazy bounce.
Still bearish. Still patient. Still on standby fora push towards 5600, where I’ll happily ring the register on a few bear swings.
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There’s a special kind of frustration in watching a chart do absolutely nothing while you do absolutely everything to analyse it.
That’s where we are. SPX continues to compress, now sporting a tight little Bollinger pinch that confirms (again) that the market’s in full nap mode.
🟠 Weekly chart: Range bar. Narrow. Uneventful.
🟠 Boundary redrawing: Done. Re-done. And redone again.
🟠 Bull/Bear triggers: Still the same, above 5705 for bulls, below 5605 for bears.
I’ve adjusted my short-term channel view, tried to refine the angles, squinted at a few Fibonacci levels, and... nothing's really changed. .
What’s interesting, though, is that while all this noise is happening, the real setups are marinating. My bear swings are aging like fine wine, just waiting for a push toward 5600 so I can cash out a few tranches that’ve been overstaying their welcome.
And let’s not forget:
💥 The bull trigger still hasn’t fired.
💥 Monday’s Paddy's Day Party and bull entry swerve? Best decision of the week.
💥 No new entries unless levels break. No exceptions.
I’m not expecting a massive move today, though saying that probably jinxed it. If we get some surprise action late in the day, great. If not, I’ll be clicking into the weekend with my blood pressure blissfully normal and my trades still on track.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? Jesse Livermore, one of history’s greatest traders, once said: "The real money is made in the waiting."
💡 The Lesson? The best trades don’t happen when you force them—they happen when you let them come to you.
S&P500 Daily ChartThe S&P500 is grinding this up trend channel since the end of 2023.
After the latest correction, now let's see how long will it take to enter back the channel or will we?
What are your thoughts?
Approaching Death Cross!When the 50 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses below the 200 – day SMA it’s called a “Death Cross” and frequently signals additional selling.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is close to a Death Cross!
I wouldn't be surprised for a capitulatory type of drop tomorrowAs we can see the trend line have held the US500/SPX/SPY price for so many times, we still couldn't break above it. In other word, it's acting as current overhead resistance ever since we broke down from this white line. We tried three times so far this week, 17th, 19th and the 20th, still couldn't manage to break above it. So if anything happens tomorrow, it would be a big red candle to tomorrow with gigantic volume since it is going to be the "Quad Witching" Day.
When will the "True Bounce" be happening? I would say, the bounce back window should starts as early as next week if we see capitulation tomorrow.
MARKET ALERT: Sound the AlarmOver the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn.
Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher.
What now?
I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did
We have been going essentially sideways since November
I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has
I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did
Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER
Where does that move take us?
Somewhere near 6500
What happens after that?
You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400
And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE
You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region
If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER
Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM
Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION
PREPARE YOURSELF
SPX Rising Wedge
Spotted an aggressively sloped rising wedge on SPX near the bottom of the recent correction. Theoretically, the more positive slope of the lower support compared to the upper resistance indicates buy-side pressure exhausting at a faster pace than sell-side pressure. Once bulls are exhausted, bears can reclaim control of the trend confirming the continuation.
Need a close below the orange wedge for confirmation of breakdown. Significant support at 5,631-5,652 so it is possible for this to catch a bounce before completing the measured move. However, if we break below 5,631 we will likely test the lower support of the blue parallel channel. Break below that structure takes us back to 5,505.
Is the history goign to repeat? SP500Checking the seasonality and the history, looks like SP500 is going to reverse soon (for a short term). I placed my long limit order (but i also entered now) targeting 5900 level.
Good luck
US500 Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,657.57.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,809.58.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 20 2025SP:SPX - Trading Levels for March 20 2025
THIS is the gameplan today - if you know you know.
The S&P Bear flag support was tested today, bear flag developingThe SPX is bouncing from pennant support this morning. So in other words, the overnight lows in futures MUST hold or w may attack trend lows.
5700 Holds the Key - But I’m Not Chasing5700 Holds the Key - But I’m Not Chasing | SPX Analysis 20 Mar 2025
There was a time—many, many moons ago—when I’d stare at the screen, heart pounding, watching every single tick, second-guessing myself, sweating over every micro-move.
And you know what? It was exhausting.
Now? I don’t play that game anymore.
I check my charts twice a day—once in the morning, once near the close. That’s it. I don’t get caught in the noise, I don’t set alerts that jolt me into action every five minutes, and I sure as hell don’t stress over every single price fluctuation that nudges my trigger levels.
Because I trade a system—not emotions.
Right now, SPX is hovering near my key levels, and while others are biting their nails and jumping in too soon, I’m just… waiting.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
I used to think the best traders were the ones who never took their eyes off the screen.
That was a lie.
📌 How I Trade Without Letting the Market Control Me
I’m a full-time trader, but that doesn’t mean I sit at my desk all day, reacting to every tiny move.
I check the charts in the morning to set my plan.
I check back near the close to manage open positions.
That’s it.
No pointless alerts. No staring at every price tick. No overreacting when price comes close to my trigger levels.
📌 Why This Works – Stress-Free & More Profitable
Not gluing myself to the screen means:
I don’t jump in too soon out of FOMO.
I don’t panic if price "almost" hits my level.
I let trades play out without second-guessing every move.
📌 SPX Setup – The Same Plan, Still Waiting
Despite all the noise, the plan hasn’t changed.
5705 is my bullish trigger.
5605 is my bearish trigger.
5700 is shaping up to be a key pivot level.
The market is dancing around these numbers, but I’m not chasing.
📌 Why Patience Pays – Let the Market Do the Work
I’m not paid to react—I’m paid to execute.
If price confirms my setup, I’ll take action.
If it doesn’t, I wait.
Either way, I sleep just fine at night.
📌 Final Thought – Trading Is NOT a 9-5 Job
The market doesn’t care how long you stare at your screen.
Great trades don’t require babysitting.
Stress-free trading is real—you just need discipline.
The best setups work, with or without you watching.
So today, I’ll do what I always do—stick to my plan, check in when I need to, and let the market come to me.
Because the real secret to high profits and low blood pressure?
Not overtrading.
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📢 Did you know? In 1958, legendary trader Richard Donchian introduced the 4-week rule—if price breaks out after four weeks of sideways action, it often triggers a massive move.
💡 The Lesson? Great setups don’t happen every day—but when they do, you better be ready.
S&P 500 Market Update – 20 March 2025Following a notable sell-off in US indices, the S&P 500 recently tested levels around 5500, marking its lowest point since September 2024.
Key Levels in Focus:
* Recent market activity has seen 5650 as an important level for traders.
* 5500 has previously been an area of increased investor interest.
* The 5680 level has played a role in past price movements, with some market participants monitoring its potential significance.
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SPX500 20 Mar 25 Market Analysis
Previously, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of Mar 17 high followed by a breakout above, if the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below (Mar 17) high area?
The market retested the Mar 17 high yesterday, closing above the middle of its range and closed as a bull bar with a long tail above.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback. It is currently underway.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying.
The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by another leg up.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up.
Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback. The pullback phase is currently underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increases.
For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above.
Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area?
I will update the post again later today.
Revenge Trading vs. Roaring Comeback: How to Tell the Difference“I’m going to get even with the market and I’m going to get even today!” We’ve all been there. You take a loss—maybe a small one, maybe an account-crushing one—and something inside you snaps.
Logic leaves the chat, and a new trader takes over: the vengeful, angry version of you who’s out to "get back" at the market.
Welcome to the world of revenge trading, where decisions are fueled by frustration, and the market does what it always does: punishes impatient and emotional traders.
But what if there’s a better way? What if instead of spiraling into self-destruction, you could channel that energy into a thoughtful and strategic comeback? That’s the difference between revenge trading and a true trader’s rebound. Grab your hot coffee and let’s talk about it.
💥 Revenge Trading: The Fastest Way to Financial Self-Sabotage
Revenge trading isn’t a trading strategy—it’s an emotional response masquerading as a quick-witted reaction. The thought process goes like this: "I just lost money. I need to make it back—fast."
So you double down, size up, stretch out the leverage ratio and ignore your usual risk management rules. Maybe you trade assets you don’t even understand because the price looks juicy. Maybe you jump into a leveraged position without a stop loss because, hey, you’re in it to win it. What could go wrong?
Everything. Everything can go wrong.
Revenge trading is the financial equivalent of trying to punch the ocean. The market doesn’t care that you’re mad. It doesn’t owe you a winning trade. And when you start making impulsive decisions, the only thing that may get hurt is your trading mindset.
📢 Signs You’re Revenge Trading
You’re taking trades you wouldn’t normally take.
You’re increasing position sizes irrationally.
You’re ditching risk management (stop losses, position sizing, logic, etc.).
You feel desperate to "make it back"—right now.
You’re ignoring your trading plan, assuming you had one to begin with.
Recognizing these signs is the first step to stopping the cycle. But avoiding revenge trading is only half of the battle—you need to know how to stage a real comeback.
🦁 Staging the Roaring Comeback
A roaring comeback isn’t about making back your losses in one dramatic trade. It’s about recalibrating, reassessing, and regaining control. Here’s how traders who actually recover from losses do it:
📌 Recognize the Signs Early
If your heart rate spikes and your fingers are itching to “fix” a bad trade immediately, stop. That’s not a setup. That’s an emotional reaction.
📌 Set Daily Loss Limits
If you hit your max loss for the day, you’re done. No exceptions. Your best decision at that point is to fight another day with a clear head.
📌 Step Away from the Screens
Revenge trading thrives on impulsivity, and the best way to kill that impulse is to take a break. Go outside. Breathe. The market isn’t going anywhere. Now touch that grass.
📌 Post-Loss Review: What Actually Happened?
Was the loss due to a bad strategy, poor execution, or just market randomness? Pull up your trading journal ( you do keep one, right ?) and break it down.
📌 Reaffirm Your Strategy (Tweak if Necessary)
If your loss came from a solid trade setup that just didn’t work, then there’s nothing to change. If it came from a mistake, figure out how to prevent that mistake from repeating.
📌 Reduce Risk for the Next Trades
After a loss, the worst thing you can do is over-leverage. Instead, cut your position size and take smaller, high-probability trades to rebuild confidence. Howard Marks, a firm believer in market psychology, always reminds investors that the biggest risk is emotional overreaction. Stay disciplined.
📌 Trust the Process
The best traders understand that one trade does not define them. They trust their system, stick to their edge, and take losses as part of the game. Trading is a long-term play, not a single battle to be won or lost.
💚 Turning Losses into Lessons
Losses are tuition fees for the market’s greatest lessons. Every great trader has taken hits—what separates them from the rest is how they respond. The thing is this can happen anywhere—from an ill-fated trade in the crypto market (it’s wild out there) to an account-battering reaction to anything that pops out of the earnings calendar .
How do you deal with a trading loss? And when’s the last time you had to stiffen that upper lip and make your comeback? Share your experience in the comments!
Heading into resistance?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,771.52
1st Support: 5,605.36
1st Resistance: 5,861.82
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P 500 reached 300MA level: Is it heading to 6800 or 4800?1.S&P 500 Index dropped to 300MA support level.
2. Last time this happened in Jan-2022. The correction lasted for 300+ days.
3. Drawing parallels: If this repeats, could this drop to 4800levels or less?
What you think. Is it heading up to 6800 level or down to 4800 level?
Would like to see other perspectives.
Sharp reversal in US marketsAmid market volatility and uncertainty, US stock indices experienced a sharp decline last week. The Dow Jones Index (#DJI30) fell by 3.5%, the S&P 500 (#SP500) dropped by 4.1%, and the Nasdaq-100 (#NQ100) lost 5.5%.
Investors reacted nervously to new economic data, including rising inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes, leading to a sell-off in stocks and a decline in key indices. The drop was particularly significant in the technology and consumer sectors, where companies like Apple and Tesla lost around 6-7% of their value.
However, starting March 13, 2025, the indices began to recover: #DJI30 gained 2.3%, #SP500 rose by 2.5%, and #NQ100 increased by 3.1%.
The recent rebound in US stock indices has been driven by several factors that restored investor confidence. Let’s take a closer look at the main reasons:
• Improvement in unemployment data: Labor market statistics played a crucial role in the market recovery. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in February 2025, marking a record low in recent decades. This indicates strong employment levels and economic resilience, boosting investor optimism and supporting stock market growth.
• Stabilization of inflation and interest rate expectations: Although inflation in the US remains high, recent data showed a slowdown in its growth. Reduced inflationary pressure gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. This was perceived as a sign of potential economic stabilization, positively impacting stock indices.
• Growth in consumer spending: One of the key drivers of the recent market recovery has been the increase in consumer spending. In Q1 2025, consumer demand in the US showed strong performance, serving as an essential indicator of economic activity. Increased spending on goods and services supports business stability and enhances corporate revenues, which, in turn, stimulates stock growth.
• Absence of new geopolitical risks: In recent weeks, there have been no major geopolitical crises or new threats on the international stage. This helped financial markets stabilize, as investors could focus on economic data and corporate earnings reports, contributing to stock index growth.
• Positive corporate earnings reports:
• #Microsoft (MSFT): Microsoft shares rose by 4.2% after reporting strong quarterly results, driven by growth in cloud services and software revenue.
• #Google (GOOGL): Alphabet’s stock increased by 3.7% due to higher advertising revenue and improved forecasts for upcoming quarters.
• #Apple (AAPL): Apple shares climbed 2.9%, supported by strong sales of new products and rising revenue from services.
• #Tesla (TSLA): Tesla stock surged 5.6%, fueled by strong electric vehicle sales growth and optimistic profit projections for the next quarter.
These companies demonstrated significant growth on the back of improved financial performance, strengthening investor confidence and aiding the stock market’s recovery amid volatility.
So despite last week’s market downturn, the current situation in the US stock market signals a potential recovery and a more positive trend in the coming weeks.
SPX: bear flag or FED good vibes?This is the 4hr chart for SPX. The red dotted line is where the 200d SMA is sitting at the moment.
Either we go through the SMA level and flip it to support for cheering Bulls or we complete that bear flag and continue the correction for cheering bears.
That gap was rejected two times, including today. No bueno.
What are you betting on? 🐂 vs 🐻
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable.
He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction.
What’s different this time:
Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary.
Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing.
Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
Possible rise from the bottom of the long-term ascending channelGiven the recent emotional decline in the Dow Jones and S&P500 due to Trump's tariff policy, the S&P500 is expected to make an upward correction from the bottom of its confirmed ascending channel. The stop loss is equivalent to the closing of the 4-hour candle below today's last low, with a target of 5900 in the final step.
