Bias still up but....Watch for a bear trap into the close today as a C wave. Vix could reverse before filling it's gap. Chances are we reach the Bollinger Band at 5710 but they could have another down move on the SPX before that occurs.
SPCUSD trade ideas
Buy Fear, Not Euphoria: The Trader's EdgeWhen you look back at the greatest trading opportunities in history, they all seem to share a common element: fear. Yet, when you're in the moment, it feels almost impossible to pull the trigger. Why? Because fear paralyzes, while euphoria seduces. If you want to truly evolve as a trader, you need to master this fundamental shift: buy fear, not euphoria.
Let's break it down together.
________________________________________
What Fear and Euphoria Really Mean in Markets
In simple terms, fear shows up when prices are falling sharply, when bad news dominates the headlines, and when people around you are saying "it's all over."
Euphoria, on the other hand, is everywhere when prices are skyrocketing, when everyone on social media is celebrating, and when it feels like "this can only go higher."
In those moments:
• Fear tells you to run away.
• Euphoria tells you to throw caution to the wind.
Both emotions are signals. But they are inverted signals. When fear is extreme, value appears. When euphoria is extreme, danger hides.
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Why Buying Fear Works
Markets are pricing machines. They constantly adjust prices based on emotions, news, and expectations. When fear hits, selling pressure often goes beyond what is rational. People dump assets for emotional reasons, not fundamental ones.
Here’s why buying fear works:
• Overreaction: Bad news usually causes exaggerated moves.
• Liquidity Vacuums: Everyone sells, no one buys, creating sharp discounts.
• Reversion to Mean: Extreme moves tend to revert once emotions stabilize.
Buying into fear is not about being reckless. It’s about recognizing that the best deals are available when others are too scared to see them.
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Why Chasing Euphoria Fails
At the peak of euphoria, risks are often invisible to the crowd. Valuations are stretched. Expectations are unrealistic. Everyone "knows" it's going higher — which ironically means there's no one left to buy.
Chasing euphoria often leads to:
• Buying high, selling low.
• Getting trapped at tops.
• Emotional regret and revenge trading.
You’re not just buying an asset — you're buying into a mass illusion.
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How to Train Yourself to Buy Fear
It's not enough to "know" this. In the heat of the moment, you will still feel the fear. Here's how you build the right habit:
1. Pre-plan your entries: Before panic strikes, have a plan. Know where you want to buy.
2. Focus on strong assets: Not everything that falls is worth buying. Choose assets with strong fundamentals or clear technical setups.
3. Scale in: Don’t try to catch the bottom perfectly. Build positions gradually as fear peaks.
4. Use alerts, not emotions: Set price alerts. When they trigger, act mechanically.
5. Remember past patterns: Study previous fear-driven crashes. See how they recovered over time.
Trading is a game of memory. The more you internalize past patterns, the easier it is to act when everyone else panics.
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A Recent Example: April 2025 Tariff Panic
Very recently, at the start of April, Trump’s new tariff announcements sent shockwaves through the market. Panic took over. Headlines screamed. Social media was flooded with fear.
But if you looked beyond the noise, charts like SP500 and US30 told a different story: the drops took price right into strong support zones.
At the time, I even posted this : support zones were being tested under emotional pressure.
If you had price alerts set and reacted mechanically, not emotionally , you could have bought into that fear — and potentially benefited from the rebound that followed just days later.
This is the essence of buying fear.
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Final Thoughts
In trading, you are paid for doing the hard things. Buying when it feels terrible. Selling when it feels amazing.
Remember:
Fear offers you discounts. Euphoria offers you traps.
The next time the market feels like it's crashing, ask yourself:
• Is this fear real, or exaggerated?
• Is this an opportunity hiding under an emotional fog?
If you can answer that with clarity, you're already ahead of 90% of traders.
Stay rational. Stay prepared. And above all: buy fear, not euphoria.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
SPX: confusion will continueFinally some positive sentiment on the US equity markets. The S&P 500 marked a weekly gain of 4,6%, while investors are waging the relaxation of the ongoing trade tariffs war. Regardless of estimates of the future impact of imposed tariffs, the US tech companies are still posting relatively good results. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.525, which was the market low in March and beginning of April this year.
Alphabet gained 1,5% during the week, on the wings of posted relatively good results above estimates. Other big tech companies were also supported, like Tesla, Nvidia and Meta. Only on Friday, Nvidia gained 4,3%, while Tesla advanced by 9,8% within one day. Regardless of positive weekly results, it is still not time to celebrate. The news regarding trade tariffs coming from the US Administration still continues to be mixed, bringing a high level of confusion among market participants. In this sense, it could be expected that volatility on the equity markets will continue also in the future period.
Built Up Swing Short Bet Over the Last Day.Got another good chunk of the rally taking our net SPX long earnings to over 20% for the year on low risk (For context, our max DD is about 1/4 of what SPX is down this year).
I still would prefer to see 5800 for me to take a real big swing at the short (because I know at 5800 even if I am wrong I'll generally get some reaction to size down a bit in risk) but we may undershoot that.
I've build up my position around the 5400 sort of area. Small tolerance for stop zones. If I am wrong, I think 5800 would hit really quickly.
Update to below idea.
S&P500 Long then Short: Last Wave 5 of 5In this video, I updated the wave counts for S&P500 and expects a last wave 5 of 5 (thus the long). I uses 2 Fibonacci extensions to project the final target and chose the lower of the target as the TP.
Once the target is reached, then we look for a reversal signal before entering short. The target of the short will be the end of sub-wave 4 as illustrated.
Good luck!
Another reversal 5600 now likelyWe came down to the top of the previous range and with the RSI as low as it got, the chances for reversal was high. I took profits and reversed long. I am now expecting 5600 and the 50 ma to finally get reached.
S&P 500 unlikely to return to up trendThe implemented tariff policy of the Trump Administration is expected to hit its fallout on the market by Q3 2025, consequentially the earnings of companies. If the SPX is to have a chance to return to the uptrend this year, it has to confirm two days closings above the turning point before summer.
The inverse effect of tariffs is that it soars with the price: any attempt to adapt on the net price point levers the total price; it's not a fixed number. This leverage applies also to inflation, resulting in consumer sentiment to sour. There is a natural time gap between the implementation of tariffs and the return of industry expected by the Trump Administration - the tariffs have been falling like a chainsaw on international business and supply relations, but rebuilding factories requires time and investment. In this gap the required investments will add pressure to companies' earnings...
These news and outlook brings out funds managers to sell America 'bigly' and to re-evaluate their diversification, bringing down stock prices eventually. The tariff-rebuild-gap is expected to set in by summer, but it is unclear when it would end: so far it is uncertain how much of the industry would return to America to produce and circumvent tariffs. A few big companies announced to build manufactories in the USA, but mostly they plan for only one factory and it still requires building. The Midterm Elections could set the Republican super-majority in both houses to fall and, by extension, have Congress retake the right to set and lift tariffs from the White House. However, it is unclear whether they would use their retaken privilege, as one truth about tariffs, like about all taxes: they're easily introduced, but can take generations to go away again.
All this forms a painstaking 2H scenario for 2025, its rock-bottom too early to call.
SPX as an exampleCorrect me if I'm wrong, but this has got to be one of the craziest monthly candlesticks the stock markets have ever printed, and perfectly completes a potential wave 4 in a 5 wave count.
S&P500: Buying accelerating as the bottom is confirmed.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.628, MACD = -41.490, ADX = 32.588) as it has been volatile during the day but on the long-term, it has resumed the bullish trend, making a strong recovery last week. The bottom is now confirmed (above the 1W MA200) and as the oversold 1W RSI was bought, the index eyes a +28.50% rise on the medium term, same as in early 2024. This falls practically on the previous ATH level (TP = 6,150).
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Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ?
After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears.
In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market.
The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down.
Today, my scenario is clear:
I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points.
In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt.
💰 For long-term investing:
I'm staying fully in cash.
I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market.
Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments.
🎯 For swing trading:
The approach here is more active.
Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range.
No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
Bearish drop?S&P500 is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,510.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,665.52
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 5,324.97
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Into the Close, some thoughts about the price actionA difficult and choppy day again. We did rally from the low to 5525 as I thought, but it's possible this was a squeeze to take shorts out before the bigger move down into the rest of the week. it's difficult to say with big earnings about to hit. The daily candle is forming a hanging man, and it could be a clue. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.
SP500 remains very bearish overall📈 In my previous post, I highlighted the confluence support zone and the potential for a bounce — and we got it. SP500 rallied around +10% off the lows.
But let’s not get too comfortable...
❓ I s the worst behind or is this just a trap before the next leg down?
From my perspective, the correction is not over.
The current bounce looks more like a bear market rally than a true reversal.
📉 Why I expect another drop:
1. Technically, as long as SP500 is trading below 5500-5600 zone, the structure remains bearish
2. Fundamentally, the backdrop hasn’t improved — if anything, it’s getting worse
3. Price is approaching a major resistance zone, which I plan to sell into
📌 My Plan:
I’m watching this zone for signs of weakness.
If momentum fades, I’ll look to short, targeting at least 5k, potentially even a new local low.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
sp500A strong entry of buyers into the area. We will wait for it to return to the area we specified. Therefore, we are waiting for the price to come to an area, but if it does not come, we are not surprised because we expected a rise without a correction.
PIVOTAL DAY AHEAD FOR $SPX: Will We Reclaim the Highs or Begin tTechnical Breakdown: We’re at a critical junction for the S&P 500. After completing a 5-wave structure, SP:SPX is teetering near a decision point. Two potential paths are now unfolding:
Bullish Scenario (🟢):
A daily close above 5386 would invalidate the current bear thesis.
This opens the door to a push toward the 90–100% Fib retracement zone (5685–5750).
Short-term traders may look to ride the momentum if 5485 is broken cleanly.
Bearish Scenario (🔴):
A rejection at current levels, coupled with a close below 5386 and a gap-fill back down, confirms the bearish triangle setup.
If this plays out, we’re targeting a drop to the 4600–4400 range based on the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions and broken trendline dynamics.
This aligns with the Elliott Wave breakdown (W5 peak, now in corrective ABC structure).
🧩 Macro Context:
High inflows to safe havens like gold suggest rising fear.
Volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thinning post-earnings season.
💥 Conclusion: Tomorrow’s close is not just another candle – it’s a potential macro trigger. Either we confirm a final leg higher in this cycle, or the bearish wave unfolds in full.
⏳ Watch 5386 closely.
Arshitecture / 30 Min Short Position SP500After the price reaches TP1, hold the current short position and consider adding to it on valid signals to ride the move toward TP2. Apply the same strategy for TP3, scaling in cautiously at key resistance zones.
I’ll share the key confirmations on the chart as they appear.
Goodluck BLUEBERRY:SP500
S&P 500 ,,, Update chartTrending possibility
As I mentioned in a previous analysis, the chart reacted to a strong support zone with a significant bullish candle, indicating an emotional response. This was followed by a small correction. One encouraging sign suggesting a potential move into the green zone is the considerable buying volume observed at the support level, potentially signaling the end of this correction.
According to my strategy, identifying a new uptrend involves breaking a descending trend line and moving decisively above a major level, such as 5500 on this chart. Therefore, if a strong bullish candle forms and closes above this key level, I will consider initiating new long positions.
It's crucial to remember that consistent success in this market relies on having a clear strategy and adhering to it diligently.
Good luck.
A pullback is expectedA pullback is expected but a rally into the open first looks probable. If the pullback looks strong, it could be a C wave down with another move to 5700+ after.
US 500 Index – How Far Can the Recovery Extend?The upside recovery in the US 500 index continued last week, adding nearly 5% to close at 5523 on Friday, a 1 month high, as weak short positions continued to be squeezed out by a combination of factors, including signs that US/China trade relations may be starting to thaw out, President Trump pulling back on his initial commentary challenging Federal Reserve independence and more positive Alphabet earnings.
Now, looking forward to the week ahead, traders trying to work out where the index may move next face a number of scheduled economic data updates to digest and then react to, which will provide a health check on the US economy and labour market, while also showing the impact of President Trump's tariffs on US inflation.
These include,
* Tuesday 1500 BST US Consumer Confidence
* Wednesday 1330 BST US Preliminary Q1 GDP,
* Wednesday 1500 BST US PCE Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)
* Thursday 1500 BST ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey
* Friday 1330 BST US Non-farm Payrolls
Not only that, 4 of the Magnificent Seven companies also report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta results due after the close on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple due after the close on Thursday.
The outcome of all these events, plus trade war/tariff updates may well determine if the rally has already run its course, or has further to go.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Mid-Point (50%) Fibonacci Resistance Important?
Last week was a positive one for the US 500 index, as an 8.5% rally developed from Monday’s session low at 5095 into Friday’s high at 5530. This of course comes after what was an aggressive liquidation of assets into the April lows at 4799 (April 7th), and some may now be asking if this could be a sign of further attempts at price strength.
Much will of course depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but last week’s strength did see a closing break above the 5474 level, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April 2025 price weakness.
This upside move may leave traders looking at the possibilities of further attempts at price strength this week and wondering where the next resistance levels may now stand.
Potential Resistance Levels:
A closing break of a 50% retracement while not a guarantee of further price strength, can suggest risks to higher levels and 5635, which is the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement could be the next resistance level to monitor.
If a further phase of price strength is to materialise, traders might now focus on closing defense of this 5635 resistance, with breaks higher possibly opening up potential tests of 5788, which marks the March 25th session high.
Potential Support Levels:
Of course, as we have said, the latest breaks of the 50% retracement resistance are not a sure sign of continued price strength. So, with that in mind, lets look at possible support levels that if broken, might point to the potential of downside pressure.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last weeks rally stands at 5364, so even if the new week starts with a price setback, this level may need to be broken on a closing basis to suggest risks of further price declines.
Such breaks lower could then point to a deeper decline and retracement towards 5313, the 50% level, even 5262, which is equal to the 62% retracement.
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$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
Is This a Massive AB=CD? I first joined this site under the "HoleyProfit" username in 2021 to give my warnings of potential bear markets. Obvious bear setups forming in the meme mania and I also though this would extend into the indices given a bit of time.
I was a bit early on the indices but over the following months all the tops were made and the drops came to pass.
Late 2022 I began to pivot back to bull when there was signs of bear trend failure and by early 2023 I was fully in the bull camp.
At the time I started to talk about a blow off top move. One which was exactly similar in size and style as the 2021 rally but the angle of the rally for a bit sharper.
This would have predicted a parabolic run to somewhere around 6000 - which has since come to pass.
Read the original post below.
If my thesis that we were heading into a giant D leg was correct, then that would mean we have a top made.
And we'd enter into super ugly market conditions over the coming months.
April 28, 2025 - Broken Supply Chains, and the DC CircusHello everyone, it’s April 28, 2025. The week ahead promises to be spectacular (or a complete disaster) depending on which way the wind blows out of Washington. So far, the futures are down about 0.6% this morning, as everyone’s trying to cut risk ahead of a week crammed with Big Tech earnings ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:META ), a mountain of macro data (PCE, GDP, ISM, jobs), and of course, the never-ending Trump tariff soap opera.
On the US politics front, Trump stayed uncharacteristically quiet over the weekend, no new bombshells. But whispers about “talks” with China surfaced, without any real confirmation. Meanwhile, several countries are supposedly rushing to negotiate tariff deals with the US. Expect headlines (and chaos) throughout the week.
Supply chains are starting to crack. Container traffic from China to the US has plunged 60%, and if deals aren’t made by mid-May, we could be staring down empty shelves and layoffs in transport and retail sectors. Think “Black Friday” without anything to buy.
Meanwhile, the drama at the Fed continues. Kevin Warsh, still salty about not replacing Powell, attacked the Fed’s “media circus” style, blaming it for post-Covid inflation. Warsh wants the Fed to go old-school: shut up, protect the dollar, and stop playing superhero. No forecasts, no endless press conferences. Just cigars and silence.
On the macro side, this week’s economic data could turn into a horror show: weak jobs numbers, soft GDP, slowing PCE, all raising the probability of recession. If that happens, expect markets to start begging the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later.
Assets snapshot:
• BLACKBULL:WTI : $63.36
• OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,307
• INDEX:BTCUSD : $94,000
In short: expect maximum volatility, endless surprises from DC, and a market that could spin on a dime. Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and brace for anything.
Mixed signals in the MarketBoth the market and VIX are showing bullish and bearish signals. I try to explain what the possibilities are if we - rally higher, or sell down below 5550. Good luck
