SPX WEEKLY 7TH APRIL 2025Welcome to SPX weekly. I have deeply discussed the price action here. If you have any doubts, feel free to leave a message or comment below.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT
SPCUSD trade ideas
S&P 500 to 7000+ Full analysis of current levelsI don't make a lot of videos but I thought this idea warranted one so I could share the detail. First of all, I'd like your feedback - what else do you see? what did I miss? Let me know.
Key points from this video:
We are coming up on the COVID lower trendline
We are currently sitting on a key level that has a confluence of 50% retrace on downward channel
The 61.8 retrace is in confluence with a number of key items: The COVID Trendline, Volume Profile, 2022 high, and current channel
Momentum is also supportive of a pivot
So, what do you think?
US500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market PanicUS500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market Panic
On a larger scale, the US500 is positioned for a bearish trend, but recently, it has been hesitant to move downward, leading to a larger correction phase.
Today, fears surrounding Trump’s tariff-related announcements have thrown the market into panic mode.
Concerns that these tariffs could harm multiple sectors are causing a sell-off ahead of the news, as shown in the chart.
Let’s see how the situation unfolds.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Maybe This is all a Big Head and Shoulders.This is feeling suspiciously like honey trapping of the bears and I think there's fair odds we're going to see a strong squeeze starting now and lasting over at least the next couple weeks.
This could easily take us to 5800 or so inside of the head and shoulders setup
Modified Count to Reflect Recent DeclineIn truth, the levels we're seeing this morning when the SPX cash market opens, I was not anticipating seeing till the 3rd quarter of this year. Mid last week, we had positive MACD divergences on the intraday charts and was setting up to be almost a textbook bottom.
Nonetheless, the SPX cash market will not hold the must hold zone when it opens this morning. This means we will get a retracement higher in a minor wave B that should last some time. This will represent one the final opportunities traders will have to relieve themselves of excess portfolio leverage and risk.
We very well may spend the summer months retracing higher...but there is no doubt some of you reading this will assume this will result in the resumption of the previous bull market.
It will not be.
It May Be Different This TimeStocks have recently experienced selloffs reminiscent of the subprime crash and Covid. However, there might be something different this time.
This monthly chart of the S&P 500 highlights the three moments in history. The Global Financial Crisis is marked in white. The coronavirus pandemic is in teal and the tariff selloff is colored yellow.
Simple price action on the stock index is mostly comparable, with large solid red candles revisiting levels from months (or years) prior.
Two other charts, however, paint a different picture. They represent risk-off “safe havens” that typically move a certain way versus the “risk-on” S&P 500. The U.S. dollar index typically climbs during sharp downturns in the stock market and the 10-year Treasury yield usually falls as bond prices rise.
The current period, however, has seen the U.S. dollar bleed lower. This is especially puzzling because higher tariffs should reduce imports, which in turn should reduce selling of the greenback.
The 10-year Treasury yield has also made a small move relative to the stock market’s dramatic volatility. TNX broke to multiyear lows during the last two crashes, but this time it’s holding levels from October.
Aside from the apparent anomaly, there could be a few takeaways from this price action.
First, GFC and covid happened during a major secular bull market in Treasuries. But since the pandemic, yields have shown signs of a longer-term upside reversal. If that new trend continues, it may weigh on stock sentiment well into the future.
Second, weakness in the greenback has corresponded to weakness in U.S. stocks. That may reflect capital outflows away from the U.S. as a general market.
Third, the labor market has been resilient. A continuation of that strength could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. In other words, it could be the opposite of Goldilocks: an economy that’s too cold to drive profit growth but too warm to justify rate cuts.
Given this potentially challenging mix of factors, investors may ask whether a new secular bear market has begun.
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Liberation or Obliteration?Notice the pattern here, the last time we had a fed pivot the market went up for a couple of months and then a huge draw down. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. We are being held up by the 0.382 Fib, so we are technically still bullish believe it or now.
What’s next? If the tariff issues are not resolved we will get a total melt down, the likes of which we haven’t seen before.
So if you are hopeful that the tariffs will be resolved, this is an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. I was largely long gold but I have not almost exited my position, please look at my trade idea on gold which was a textbook long.
Now I’m putting that cash to work and slowly buying up the best assets the market has to offer. I will add to my long term investment in the AI companies, data center and top class software names. But I’m not going all in, I’m reserving dry powder for more draw downs. For now this technical analysis suggests now is the time to be slowly deploying.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
SPX500 eyes on 5668: Key Resistance before Trump Tariff newsSPX500 might be in "sell the rumor, buy the news" mode.
But the bounce has just hit a major fib (of its Covid wave).
If the news is bearish, this would be a perfect top to drop.
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S&P500 Searching for a BottomExecutive Summary
The S&P 500’s Elliott Wave structure suggests the current downtrend is incomplete, with a high-probability target near the 4,300 level based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Global stock markets remain under pressure amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and Elliott Wave patterns across various indices continue to point to more downside.
Current Elliott Wave Analysis
Today’s upward volatility is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today’s lows in the coming sessions.
There is an impulse wave that began in October 2022 and topped in 2025. We are now seeing the after effects of that completed rally. A standard 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300—a logical target for a ‘normal’ correction of the 2022–2025 rally.
Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term.
We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.
S&P 500: Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?
Zoom out. Clear the noise.
We might still sweep the lows, but when viewed on the weekly timeframe, this current S&P 500 move looks more like a healthy valuation correction than a structural breakdown.
Let’s break it down by the numbers using fractal analysis:
🟩 March 2020 (COVID Crash):
▪️~35% drop
▪️V-shaped recovery
▪️Oversold RSI bounce
🟨 2022 Bear Market:
▪️~27% correction
▪️Multi-month wedge consolidation
▪️Eventually led to an upside breakout
🟦 Now (2025):
▪️~21% correction so far
▪️Retesting long-term trendline
▪️RSI in familiar oversold zone
📊 Fractal Math:
- From 35% to 27% = 22.86% decrease
- From 27% to 21% = 22.22% decrease
Both legs show a consistent ~22% drop in correction depth suggesting bearish momentum is weakening with each cycle. Currently bouncing off the1844 days of support.
Is this the bottom? Will there be relief?
🔁 If this pattern holds:
- We could see a short-term sweep or deviation under recent lows.
- But structure favours a potential recovery from this zone, unless the trendline breaks decisively.
📌 Watch levels closely. Timing matters.
🧠 What’s your take, is this another “buy the dip” moment?
Do hit the like button if you liked this update and share your views in the comment section.
Warning: what can save us from a collapse: must read.⚠️This analysis isn’t purely chart-based, but in this macro environment, understanding the bigger picture is essential for predicting market movements. Hopefully, TradingView will allow this idea so that everyone can read it.
What Can Save Us?
Before looking for a solution, we must first acknowledge the problem—and then determine if and when a resolution is coming.
1. Trump’s Tariffs & Policies: A Market Shock
Trump’s economic strategy marks a radical departure from the policies of the past 30 years. However, previous administrations weakened U.S. global influence, shifting power in favor of China.
Since Trump's motto is "Make America Great Again", serious changes are inevitable. Until investors fully grasp these policies, uncertainty will persist.
Let’s break down the key areas of impact and Trump’s expected responses:
2.Monetary Policy & The Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve (FED) and Jerome Powell are not aligned with the White House.
Powell is sticking to his monetary policy approach, but Trump needs 0% interest rates to implement his vision.
Markets hate uncertainty, and this is fueling volatility.
🔴 Trump's Response:
Expect a bombshell move—Trump will fire Jerome Powell and replace him with a Fed chairman who supports rate cuts to 0%. This will cause short-term chaos but ultimately fuel a massive market rally as:
✔️ The housing market recovers
✔️ Liquidity surges
✔️ Stocks skyrocket
3.U.S. Dependence on China & Russia for Raw Materials
The U.S. imports essential resources from China and Russia, making it vulnerable.
The BRICS alliance is strengthening, further threatening U.S. dominance.
🔴 Trump's Response:
Trump has openly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its rich natural resources. He will take it by military force if necessary, positioning the U.S. as a raw material powerhouse on par with Russia.
4.Lost Allies: Canada, Mexico & South America
Canada is aligning with Europe
Mexico & South America are leaning towards BRICS
🔴 Trump's Response:
To counter this:
Canada will be pressured into rejoining a U.S.-led trade bloc—or face potential annexation.
South American economies will be crippled by tariffs, forcing them to reintegrate under U.S. influence.
5.Geopolitical Conflicts: Middle East & Ukraine
Iran is aligned with Russia & China
Ukraine relies on Europe (France, UK, EU), rather than the U.S.
The U.S. is not benefiting from these wars
🔴 Trump's Response:
If Zelensky continues to align with Europe, Trump may order a full-scale U.S. bombing of Ukraine, flatten Kyiv, eliminate Zelensky live on TikTok, and then split Ukraine with Russia.
This move would:
✔️ Strengthen U.S.-Russia relations
✔️ Secure a deal on Greenland
✔️ Humble Europe
6.Conclusion: A Global Power Shift
Expect a period of chaos and fear. However, what investors must understand is that Trump is 100% serious about these moves—and he will execute them regardless of global opinion.
If Trump’s strategy works:
✅ The U.S. will regain dominance
✅ Markets will rally hard
✅ Confidence in the U.S. economy will be restored
If Trump fails:
🚨 A prolonged economic downturn (15-20 years of stagflation)
🚨 U.S. & Europe suffer major losses
🚨 Best move? Relocate to Asia or the Middle East before the crash.
So, even if Trump’s policies seem insane, the best-case scenario is that he succeeds.
💡 DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #MAGA #Geopolitics #StockMarket #SPX500 #Trading #Investing #Economy #FederalReserve #RateCuts
S&P 500 Index: First Correction Since July 2023I was just looking at NVDA and the market has been bullish forever. A drop is approaching and I wondered, "Will this be a short lived correction or will it turn into a bear-market?"
Good question isn't it?
The last correction for the SPX happened between July and October 2023, after that, it has been 100% bullish with some retraces lasting a maximum of three weeks. So it is hard to think of a bear-market.
From January 2022 through October 2022 the SPX entered a strong correction, a bear-market, it lasted 280 days. There you have it.
How would that look like today? Let's see... Ten months would put us at August/September 2025, can you imagine?
These markets are super resilient, and with money printing going on over-drive soon, it is possible that we only experience a correction. A correction can last several weeks to a few months maximum.
Big correction or small correction, three weeks or ten months, the SPX is bearish and pointing lower in the coming days, weeks and months.
Namaste.
Bear With Me: When AI Spending disturbs the hibernationSpent too much time coding and cycling today, so no time for a video.
Now we know for sure: it was a deeper correction, and it’s indeed too close to a bear market to be ignored. What's next?
I think the tariff war merely anticipated something that was bound to happen sooner or later: the AI bubble burst. For me, that explains why the NASDAQ entered the bear market first. Big tech was very bold in announcing billions of dollars in AI spending, yet many investors—mostly clueless about what this means for future growth—weren’t ready to accept it.
However, the Trump maneuver isn’t straightforward and could lead to real complications. Without diving into macro analysis (which I admit is beyond my expertise), here are some scenarios derived from the chart:
A – We bounce off the confluence of two major supports: the ascending wedge, the lateral from the 2021/2022 top, and the AVWAP anchored there. It’s a real possibility that we could simply bounce from here and reach a new ATH. However, even in this scenario, I doubt we’ll see the sun before the dark. The AI bubble has to burst before the real winners in that race can show their value. So, we may experience a blow-off top, only to return to bear market territory—possibly by the end of the year or next year.
B – We lose this critical support and head for the hills.
C – We bounce off the next level down and march back up (very unlikely, in my opinion).
D – We complete a bear market with over a 50% correction. The downside could be harsh, with many whipsaws and false hopes along the way.
I’ve never been this bearish in my life. Yet, I remain very bullish on AI. I’m at least 10x more productive with AI, and I believe everyone will be—and so will every company making the right moves. That will create amazing opportunities for traders.
But until then… brace yourself.
SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022?
From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong.
From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally.
Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally.
Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
S&P 500 - Analysis and Rebound levels! 4/7/2025S&P 500 just pulled off a slick rebound at 4835.04 - Let's hope it's legit. A close above the 50-week SMA keeps momentum alive. If not, eyes on the next landing zones at 4754.17 and 4699.43. No panic! Don’t let the noise rattle your game plan! 😎
#SP500 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500
🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone
(April 6, 2025)
Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities.
🎯 Why this area is important:
Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support.
High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024.
50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg.
⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method):
✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation.
✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement.
✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
The Dump is OverThe Dump is Over, China is done, Vietnam is going to replace China imports to US at 0% rate, US companies will have to look at america now, not china anymore, that the new gameplan
Deja Vue: Exactly the same as Trump 1 Tarif's till nowJust copy and scale... It's constructed and nothing else!
COMPLEX WAVE STRUCTURE FORMING WITHIN WAVE B or 2 HIGH RISKThe chart posted is the updated sp 500 pattern that is forming .I have thought we would see a simple wave structure form as the spiral cycles topped 2/19 and bottom3/13 in perfect timing since the two bottom I have gone long twice and shorted twice at both tops . I now am forced the go to cash and wait for the wave structure to form the next wave The issue is the HIGH VIX and the formation on 15 min and 5 min charts . So being in cash is the best .Best of trades WAVETIMER ! we must hold 5444 /5388 for wave B 1.272 and 1.382 of wave A
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction
The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
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