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SP 500 Cash Index / US DollarSS

SP 500 Cash Index / US Dollar

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SPCUSD trade ideas

Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It)Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It) | SPX Analysis 24 Mar 2025 The markets are meandering again, and I’m starting to feel like a one-man tribute band for “Brimful of Asha” on repeat. Another grindy week, another re-run of the up-a-bit, down-a-bit SPX drama. Today’s vibe? Picture those magnificent men in their flying machines… looping up diddely up-up and down diddely down-down with zero destination in sight. The overnight futures opened with some energy - but landed us smack back into the call wall zone at 5700/5720. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are pinching tighter than my jeans post-Christmas, confirming what we already know: this market’s stuck in a range. But here's the thing… I’m not stressing it. I’ve seen this dance before. And I know exactly what I’m waiting for. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: Another week, another range, and here I am again – sipping coffee, muttering to myself like a budget oracle, watching SPX push a few points higher and thinking… "Didn’t we just do this yesterday?" The overnight futures gapped higher, but the market basically landed us right back into the same call wall we’ve been dancing with all week – 5700/5720. It’s like déjà vu… but with less excitement. And don’t even get me started on the Bollinger Bands. They’re pinching so tightly now you could use them as a tourniquet. Yes, we’re consolidating. Yes, we already knew that. But now it’s like the market is actively mocking us. 🎯 So what’s changed? Nothing. The plan remains exactly the same: Wait for a breakout-pullback – either direction. Don’t force trades. Stay sharp, but don’t get twitchy. Friday’s rally? It messed with the last of my bear swings, and instead of dragging the positions out like a bad soap opera, I just let them expire and took the loss. Not because I had to. But because they were irritating me. Sometimes, the smartest move is not about managing the trade – it’s about managing the trader. I cleared the decks, reset the headspace, and now I’m ready for what comes next. So here we are: Bullish trigger is still 5720+ Bearish trigger stays below 5605 Everything in between is just noise. And yeah, I’m still leaning bearish, but I’m not forcing it. We’ve seen this pattern before – the grind, the stall, the fakeout. And when the real move comes? That’s when I’ll strike. Until then, it’s back to the charts, back to the tea, and back to waiting with the quiet smugness of someone who knows patience pays better than panic. Let’s see if today delivers… or if we’re just rolling the same episode again. --- Fun Fact 📢 In 1997, when the VIX dropped below 10, traders called it "nap time." The market stayed so calm for so long, many option traders took part-time jobs just to stay busy - including one notorious story of a floor trader who moonlighted as a nightclub bouncer. 💡Lesson? When volatility vanishes, don’t force action – prepare for the return of chaos.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
S&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive NoteS&P 500 Analysis: Markets Start the Week on a Positive Note A week ago, while analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we noted that the market had officially entered a correction phase, as the price had declined more than 10% from its February 19 peak. This drop was driven by mounting uncertainty over the potential economic damage caused by the Trump administration’s tariff policies in international trade. However, this morning, markets are showing signs of optimism following reassuring statements from officials over the weekend. According to Reuters: → Trump announced plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the U.S. Trade Representative is set to meet his Chinese counterpart this week. → The European Union has taken a conciliatory stance, delaying its initial countermeasures against the U.S. until mid-April. As a result, sentiment appears to have shifted towards optimism, with the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) trading approximately 4% above this month’s low. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) As noted on 17 March: → The price is forming an ascending channel (marked in blue). → The fact that the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel suggests that bearish momentum may be fading. Currently, we are witnessing an attempt at a bullish reversal from the channel’s lower boundary. From a bearish perspective, resistance may emerge around the 5750 level, where the price has previously reacted (as indicated by the arrows). From a bullish perspective: → Bears have lost control of the 5600 level. → A bullish gap at the start of the week indicates a significant shift in market sentiment. If positive news continues to emerge throughout the week, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could attempt a rise towards the median of the identified channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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by FXOpen
Rolling Crisis': How one solution tends to feed the next problemThe Cycle of Crisis: How Fed Interventions and Post-Crisis Policies Set the Stage for Future Turbulence Research suggests that solutions to financial crises—ranging from the Federal Reserve’s early market interventions in 1922 to post-2008 policies—often create conditions that later lead to new crises. Historical evidence indicates that measures such as deposit insurance, deregulation, and quantitative easing can inadvertently encourage risk-taking, creating a cyclical pattern of stabilization followed by vulnerability. ================================ Historical Context and Analysis ================================ The Fed's Role Since 1922 In 1922, the Federal Reserve pioneered the use of open market operations to manage the money supply. By purchasing government securities, the Fed aimed to stabilize credit conditions and influence interest rates. This early intervention set the stage for modern monetary policy and demonstrated how central bank actions can have far-reaching effects on market behavior. Post-Great Depression Reforms and Moral Hazard Following the Great Depression, a series of reforms restored public confidence: Glass-Steagall Act (1933): Separated commercial and investment banking to limit excessive risk-taking. Creation of the FDIC: Insured bank deposits, boosting consumer trust. Fed as Lender of Last Resort: Provided emergency liquidity to prevent bank failures. These measures, while stabilizing, also introduced moral hazard. Banks, knowing they were protected, gradually assumed more risk—a trend that contributed to later financial instability. Deregulation and the 2008 Crisis In the 1990s and early 2000s, financial deregulation intensified: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999): Repealed parts of Glass-Steagall, allowing banks to merge commercial and investment functions. Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000): Deregulated derivatives markets, increasing the complexity of financial instruments. Intended to modernize the financial sector, these changes inadvertently enabled risk buildup. The mixing of high-risk investment activities with traditional banking practices contributed to vulnerabilities that eventually led to the 2008 financial meltdown. Post-2008 Policies and Unintended Consequences In response to the 2008 crisis, policymakers adopted aggressive measures: Quantitative Easing (QE): The Fed injected liquidity by purchasing large quantities of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Low Interest Rates: Keeping rates near zero spurred borrowing and spending. While these policies stabilized markets and averted deeper recession, they also contributed to unintended outcomes such as asset price bubbles and rising inflation, which may sow the seeds for future economic challenges. ================================ Cyclical Nature of Crisis Responses ================================ A review of historical episodes reveals a recurring pattern where each crisis response, while effective in the short term, can alter market incentives and build vulnerabilities that later trigger new crises. Comparative Analysis 1922–1929: Open market operations stabilized credit but contributed to speculative booms. Post-1930s: Safety nets restored confidence but led to increased risk-taking (moral hazard). 1990s–2000s: Deregulation modernized finance yet enabled risk buildup that precipitated the 2008 crisis. Post-2008: QE and low rates stabilized recovery but fueled asset bubbles and inflation. Lessons for Policymakers Tailored Responses: Each crisis is unique; policies must account for long-term impacts. Guard Against Moral Hazard: Safety nets should be paired with measures to discourage reckless behavior. Balanced Regulation: Financial innovation requires robust oversight to prevent systemic risks. Conclusion From the Fed’s pioneering steps in 1922 to today’s complex economic environment, history shows that every crisis solution has its price. Emergency measures—though vital for short-term stability—can reshape market incentives and create vulnerabilities that may lead to future crises.
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by holeyprofit
$US500 Intraday PaydayI don't do Intraday chart posts for various reasons however this chart is the most important watch of the year. Right now we are testing a very important triple top where heavy resistance is being printed in the pre-market. Several times bull have tried to break through with large one minute candles and being stiffly rejected. This is of extreme importance because the current formation on all indexes in a bear flag looking for continuation to the 5400 level. If rejection sets in, short to the 5400 and then go neutral for a week and re-asses.
CShort
by Midgar-
SPX: uncertainty holdsAnother relatively mixed trading week for US equities. The most important weekly event was certainly the FOMC meeting, where the Fed decided to hold interest rates unchanged for one more time. Important input was that the Fed is still on the track of two rate cuts during the course of the year, which modestly supported positive market sentiment. Still, uncertainties regarding decisions of the US Administration, specially related to trade tariffs are leaving the mark for precaution among market participants. Along with the trade tariffs, consultant companies like Accenture are affected by the DOGE cuts in spending and whose shares suffered a 7,3% drop in value. The S&P 500 was traded higher by 0,5% on a weekly level. However, uncertainty is still evident in the index moves. The highest weekly level was 5.710, while the index closed the week at the level of 5.667. Companies are starting to bring up their estimates regarding future earnings. Currently, some of them noted expectations that trade tariffs will impact their future sales, planning of capital spending and jobs. As long as uncertainty holds on the market, the prices of stocks will be in a volatile mood. In this sense, it should not be expected to see some exponential moves in the S&P 500, like it was during the previous two years.
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by XBTFX
BUY SPX500SPX500 Trade Idea: Bullish Continuation Setup Market Overview The SPX500 has shown strong bullish momentum, and a continuation of this trend is likely if price holds above the 5,772-support area. A confirmed breakout from this level could provide an ideal buying opportunity. Trade Setup Entry: Buy at 5,733 (waiting for confirmation at key support) Stop Loss (SL): 5,525 (below strong support zone) Take Profit (TP): 6,154 (next key resistance level) Analysis & Rationale ✅ Bullish Trend Continuation – Price action suggests strong momentum, favoring further upside. ✅ Key Support at 5,772 – A breakout above this level will confirm bullish strength. ✅ Favorable Risk-to-Reward Ratio – Well-defined SL and TP provide a balanced strategy. Trading Plan & Execution Wait for confirmation at 5,772 before entering. If price holds, execute a buy order at 5,733. Set SL at 5,525 to limit downside risk. Take profit at 6,154, adjusting the stop-loss accordingly if price gains momentum. This trade setup follows the bullish market structure, providing an opportunity to capitalize on SPX500’s continued upside potential. However, monitor economic data and global market sentiment for any shifts in trend. 📌 Risk Disclaimer: Always implement proper risk management and adjust your strategy as market conditions evolve.
FLong
by Jazzy_Qmolautsi
US500 - Bullish Reversal Setup Overview: The US500 (S&P 500) is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after a significant pullback. We have reached a key support level where buyers are stepping in, suggesting a possible move higher. Technical Analysis: Support Zone: Price has tested a strong demand zone and is rejecting lower levels. Bullish Structure: A higher low formation is developing, which is a sign of trend reversal. Moving Average Confluence: Price is looking to reclaim the 50-day moving average, adding further confirmation for a bullish push. Risk-Reward Setup: A favorable risk-to-reward ratio is in play with a stop below the recent lows and a target back towards recent resistance levels. Trade Plan: 🔹 Entry: On confirmation of bullish momentum near the current zone. 🔹 Stop Loss: Below the recent swing low. 🔹 Take Profit: Targeting the previous high near resistance. 💬 Let me know your thoughts! Will US500 bounce from here? 🚀 #RSTRADING #SPX500 #Trading #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis
FLong
by RSTrad1ng
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 5,705.61 1st Support: 5,507.00 1st Resistance: 5,814.09 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average: Double Top Targets 5400I wrote before about the S&P 500 when it was at its peak, showing that "head and shoulders" pattern, and it hit its target. Now, the index has been tradin’ below the 200-day moving average for 10 sessions and is strugglin’ to get back above it. There’s also a "double top" pattern formin’, targetin’ around the 5400 level. Next week’s gonna be big—needs to climb back above that 200-day average, or the odds of more downside are gonna go up. And that 5400 level might not be the final stop, ‘cause there are other patterns that ain’t done yet. Once it hits that level, they’ll complete and signal even lower targets.
SShort
by ALRASHYD_
SPX Forecast - Further Consolidation with Slightly Bullish TrendVix fell slightly as SPX closed the week relatively flat. FMOC made it clear the Fed expects economic harm from current plans despite unwillingness to update guidance on rate cuts. Forthcoming April 2nd tariff war milestone will likely cause the market to simmer further in anticipation of the execution. Major tech earnings have concluded and the market enjoyed it's first week of relative stability since the historic 14 consecutive days of sell-off. All these indicate there may be little buyer interest at new levels prior to resolving looming uncertainty and could lead to further consolidation within prior ranges while maintaining the slightly bullish local structure. Break below 5,615 would invalidate the structure and confirm continuation to the downside.
SLong
by franklyfresh
S&P short recovery before 52-5400 S&P short recovery before 52-5400 , If the trend from 2015-2016 repeats, we are due for a short recovery towards 5900 or 10MA and then follow for a larger correction by summer. If things look good at Macro level that would be great opportunity to resume bull cycle otherwise short recovery towards 5400 and following for a 2021 ATH 4800 area to complete bear market and settle down in 2026 to see new ATH inly in 2027. In that case 2025 Christmas would be good opportunity to buy. This is not a an advice including myself
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by PJCharts4FUN
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.3-21.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 10th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13, now in the second phase. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined here. The expected range for the base cycle low is mid-May to mid-June. At this point, I anticipate a reversal between the extreme forecasts of June 16 and June 23, marking the start of a new 4-year cycle. The beginning of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a 4-year cycle can be very strong. 👉 Meanwhile, retrograde Venus and Mercury are predictably working against each other. As I mentioned in early March and in previous posts, retrograde Venus played out with a one-week lag upward. Retrograde Mercury on March 17 did not support the phase start as I expected last week; instead, it delayed the bullish move but lacked the energy to reverse it. Venus remains the stronger influence. The situation resembles the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle. Note the weak start of this phase. ⚠️ Technically, we are in a bearish base cycle. Therefore, the second phase is also expected to be bearish, with a short rally followed by a steep drop below the opening. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. There is also a pivot forecast on March 27, but that is more relevant to crude.
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by irinawest
SPX at a Critical JunctureThe SPX is approaching a make-or-break moment. Over the next two weeks, we should gain clarity on whether the broader market is gearing up for new all-time highs, or if it's time to consider the possibility of a top forming — potentially signaling the onset of a more serious downside move (i.e., a bear market). Key resistance levels are in focus. Any strong rejection from these areas will be interpreted as a sign of weakness and could serve as an early signal for a lower low in the making. The red line on the chart represents a critical threshold — price should not close below it on a daily basis (and ideally, not on a weekly basis either). Also worth noting: the 5400 level holds significant liquidity, making it a key area to watch. For now, the approach is to remain cautiously long, as long as these levels continue to hold.
SLong
by CampmanTrades
S&P 500: Bull Run Reversal Underway S&P 500 increased by just 0.08% to close Friday's trade at 5,667 after a four-week decline. It is now down over 7% from February's peak of 6,147. The index has broken its bullish daily structure, signalling the start of a major correction. Critical support at 5,542 must hold to avoid further downside. If support holds, a temporary rebound could reach targets of 5,662, 5,737, 5,858, and 5,932. Failure to maintain 5,542 would lead to the second stage, targeting 5,151. Given current economic pressures, a four-stage correction resembling past corrections is plausible, potentially reaching as low as 4,564.
SShort
by Rotuma
US100 – Elliott Wave Count & Expanding Flat ScenarioThis chart reflects my interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle, focusing on the rule of alternation. I've mapped a running flat in wave (II) and an expanding flat in wave (IV), which feels valid in this structure. Currently, I'm tracking the final stages of wave 5 in the weekly count – potentially setting up for a daily leg higher into wave (V). Key levels to watch: Weekly vector body: 5,928 Daily vector body: 6,110 Final target zone: around 6,200+ Human behavior doesn’t change — the cycle will always repeat. The carry trade could unwind at point X or at the end of daily wave 5. Let’s see how it plays out. This is not financial advice – purely my perspective for learning and discussion.
P
by The_Market_Architect
US100 – Elliott Wave Count & Expanding Flat ScenarioThis chart reflects my interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle, focusing on the rule of alternation. I've mapped a running flat in wave (II) and an expanding flat in wave (IV), which feels valid in this structure. Currently, I'm tracking the final stages of wave 5 in the weekly count – potentially setting up for a daily leg higher into wave (V). Key levels to watch: Weekly vector body: 5,928 Daily vector body: 6,110 Final target zone: around 6,200+ Human behavior doesn’t change — the cycle will always repeat. The carry trade could unwind at point X or at the end of daily wave 5. Let’s see how it plays out. This is not financial advice – purely my perspective for learning and discussion. I Salute You -The Market Architect-
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by The_Market_Architect
Trendline Broken – Is the Bull Run in Trouble?The S&P 500 index is currently exhibiting a critical technical structure. After forming a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) within a well-respected rising trendline, the price recently made an All-Time High (ATH) but has since shown signs of weakness. The trendline, which has acted as a dynamic resistance multiple times, has now been broken. At present, the price is retesting the key horizontal support zone and the 200 EMA after the breakdown. This retest is crucial—a rejection here could confirm a bearish shift, potentially leading to lower levels near the next key support zone. Additionally, the RSI is displaying a bearish divergence, signaling weakening momentum despite recent highs. Key Takeaway: Watch for confirmation at the retest zone. A rejection may signal a deeper correction, while a reclaim of the trendline and 200 EMA could reestablish the bullish structure. Risk management is key at these pivotal levels.
SShort
by unichartz
2
Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders, SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted. Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week. So let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OLong
by EduwaveTrading