SPX short ideaSPX is targeting 5978 1.4 fiboncci level I expect about 450pts correction to 0.786 fibonacci level before bullish trend restarts to target 6260 area in 2025
SPCUSD trade ideas
The S&P 500 is due for a 12% pullback.The S&P 500 is due for a 12% pullback.
Based on previous price action, every time the price overextends approximately 12% above the 200 EMA, it typically results in a pullback to the 200 EMA support.
This could affect the crypto market in the short term. Over the next two weeks, we may see a potential correction in the crypto market.(SHORT-TERM).
If we see that correction, that could be a good time to load up in some of the altcoins.
Winter RallyWhile the market may appear stretched in the short term, analyzing the broader trend since 2009 on a logarithmic scale suggests the potential for a bull run extending through the winter and continuing into 2025
SPX : Saturn Squares Uranus (Heliocentric)The heliocentric Saturn-Uranus square is a potent astrological configuration known to influence significant market cycles, particularly in the SPX (S&P 500) often triggering periods of volatility and sometimes resulting in notable market crashes. Saturn, representing time, structure, karma, and restraint, squares off with Uranus, the planet of sudden change, innovation, and disruption.
This clash between the old and the new brings tension and unpredictability into financial markets, where structures that seem stable may suddenly face upheaval.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions 11.07.2024🔮
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Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Nasdaq 100 preps for next move after Trump winThe Nasdaq 100 has traded sideways this week, hovering around levels from last Friday. This is expected following Trump's victory, which saw the index generate a strong bullish surge of 5.84%. Traders now require consolidation or correction, which is precisely what we're observing. The default is for markets to pull back. Still, they can also move sideways, allowing indicators like the RSI to reach neutral levels and creating an environment where traders may feel ready to go long once the trend resumes upward.
Currently, we're watching this week's low at 5,965. If the index stays above this level, we could see a push toward Wednesday's high of 6,014, followed by a target of 16,664 based on the descending triangle pattern forming on the chart. However, if the index breaks below this week's low—a critical short-term level—the NASDAQ 100 could fall to 5,910. For now, though, this is not the primary scenario.
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S&P500 (SPX500) index looks testing upper trend channelS&P500 index looks testing upper trend channel
This is a very long log charts of the S&P500 index.
S&P 500 Eyes New Highs: 43 ATHs and CountingTechnical Analysis
The price has pushed up as we mentioned yesterday and is still moving toward a new all-time high (ATH). Notably, the S&P 500 has recorded 43 ATHs this year and continues to reach new highs.
As long as it trades above 5931, it is likely to reach 6002 before starting a bearish trend.
Alternatively, if the price drops from here and closes a 4-hour candle below 5931, it will support a bearish move toward 5891.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5933
Resistance Levels: 5985, 6002
Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5815
Trend outlook: Uptrend
previous idea:
The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event.
The Market’s Independence from Political Events
There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community.
The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations.
Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction
The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome.
This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement.
The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles
At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market.
Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events.
This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events.
Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path
To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology.
For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction.
In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
SPX: Bullish Momentum Targets 6,000 with Key Retest at 5989SPX: S&P 500 Futures Eye Further Gains as Index Targets 6,000 Milestone
The S&P 500 index surged to a new record high on Friday, with futures indicating more potential gains at the New York open. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by the election results, with the "Trump effect" continuing to fuel demand for risk assets.
Technical Analysis
The price has increased by approximately 5.00% over the last week. Today, a retest toward 5989 is expected, followed by a continuation of the bullish trend, aiming to break the all-time high (ATH) at 6019 and reach 6045 and 6068.
Alternatively, if a 4-hour candle closes below 5989, it could signal a bearish trend, targeting 5970 and 5931.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6019
Resistance Levels: 6045, 6068
Support Levels: 5989, 5970, 5931
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Correction toward 5989
Bullish Trend toward 6045
previous idea:
Another S&P 500 channelSo here is another channel. The July peak made an extension of this channel, and the price didn't arrive to that extended part neither at the top nor at the bottom since then. Even if the price will arrive to that extended part at the top of the channel, it won't reach 6000 before the elections unless it makes a breakout in the upward direction thus making a new extension. Maybe it will reach 6000 after the elections. But I think that a more likely scenario is the price hitting the bottom of the channel first.
Also I suggest that the price will go on a small correction now to 5650 support area, hit the trendline and make a new wave to 5800. And then we might see a good correction. If it won't go that way, perhaps this channel will be helpful in your analysis.
$SPX The Hundred Years TrendThat's right..
The sheep were told we broke through the great depression trendline and to prepare themselves for a new paradigm..
As you can see we have broken through one of the great depression trendlines.
And Still you can see we have one to go..
Our last touch of this trendline ended up with a stiff rejection, and we are dangerously close to another fatal kiss.
If you haven't taken out a heavy long term short to cover life's everything,
it might be too late.
Only the strong will survive.
Are you Strong?
SPX 500 day trading LONGAnalysis: Market Structure & Probabilities
OANDA:SPX500USD
PML (Previous Monthly Low) has been broken, moving higher than last month's low.
PMH (Previous Monthly High) has also been broken, pushing beyond last month’s high.
PWH/PWL (Previous Weekly High/Low) similarly breached, with price moving higher than the previous month's range.
PDL (Previous Daily Low) and 4H Swing High/Low have also been surpassed.
These indicators suggest a strong bullish bias, with an 87.5% probability of further upside movement vs. a 12.5% bearish scenario (reflected in PDH, as the price dipped below yesterday’s high).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.14
Simple as that.
SPX500 TREND LINES, PIVOT and APEX POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions. Expected Movement for the rest of the year will be in between the two apex points 5410 and 5747. Any Voilation of these points will determine the further direction of the SPX price movement.
S&P 500 prospects A significant number of companies in the S&P Index are invested in developing and innovating, especially in the technology sector. With the development of artificial intelligence (AI), we expect to see not just growth, but a real boom in the market, as AI promises to revolutionize many industries. The changes associated with AI can affect the efficiency of business processes, the creation of new products and services, and the competitiveness of companies.
In addition, current economic policies characterized by low interest rates play a key role in this scenario. Low rates make the cost of borrowing much easier, which stimulates both economic activity and investment. Businesses can expand, invest in research and development, and at the same time consumers can afford to spend more, further supporting economic growth.
This combination of factors, from the innovative power of tech giants to favorable monetary policy, creates a unique environment for significant growth in the S&P 500 Index. Investment in AI is expected to not only increase, but also lead to the creation of new markets and business models, which could provide sustainable and long-term growth for the economy and, by extension, for stocks.
Analyzing the current market trends through the prism of technical analysis, we notice that the chart shows a structure resembling the formation of the fifth wave within the Elliott Wave Theory. Our forecasts and mathematical calculations indicate that this wave may peak at approximately $6100.
In addition, we observe that market prices are firmly positioned above the significant level of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is traditionally considered a sign of an uptrend or bull market. This indicator emphasizes the stability of the current uptrend.
Additional confirmation that the $6,100 level is a promising level for profit taking is the extended Fibonacci level of 1,618.
Best wishes, Horban Brothers.
trump won, now whatThis is not a political analysis,idgf about who's your favourite party With that said:
An easy way to run ur economy to the ground is through price controls, which was part of Harris's campaign platform. Joe did a great job and arguably saved the U.S. economy from a slump with initiatives like the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act. However, what concerns the average American most are the prices of gas and food. Harris's solution to these issues is a price ceiling, which is why many people felt that the orange man solution is more realistic
however Tax cuts, the budget deficit, and inflation, along with tariffs, may lead the market to react positively a trend we have already observed. Inflation can drive growth for companies, which in turn boosts earnings and contributes to the US GDP growth. Additionally, the bond market is showing an upward yield curve, suggesting a liquidity preference, as money flows from risk-free investments like 10-year bonds into riskier assets such as equities or the stock market.
The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and efforts to reduce the balance sheet may be significant factors in this shift. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential outcomes of these tax cuts and policies, which could result in a labor shortage and disruption in the labor market. The inflation accompanying the tariffs could lead to economic contraction, posing risks.
Still, navigating these changes will not be plain, as the central bank is likely to respond to these policies, further deepening the uncertainty.
there will be also some actual improvement in terms of foreign policy which can also lead to capital flowing from outside into us markets
however, any sort of policy led by wall street has historically led to disasters and we expect no difference and the taxpayers will be left with the bill tap
again I do not cheer for any party or their ideologies we'll watch the same market on asymmetrical information so make ur own inference
SPX500 Bullish Momentum Post-ElectionHello,
VANTAGE:SP500 has responded positively to the election results, and further bullish movement is anticipated, though minor fluctuations may occur. The 1W pivot point could potentially be tested. A cross and sustained move above the 1D pivot point would signal an immediate continuation of the bullish momentum.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
S&P doesn't matterThe time is coming soon but when and at which price will be turned back maybe it is an opportunity to make lots of money hehe, let's wait for the price action and ride a wave hehe I am gonna be a rich person
Warning maybe in order?A lot of bullish sentiment out there but the rally is not confirmed. See the negative divergence marked on the bottom of the chart.
Also running into long term trend line and confluence of Fib values converging around soon.
Can S&P 500 stay above 6K?The SPX hit a new all-time high at the open, adding to its big gains from last week when Trump won the US election quite comfortably in the end. But the index it has since drifted lower, moving back below last week's high of 6013, potentially suggesting that the bullish momentum is fading after being up for several days. At the time of writing, it was approaching the 6,000 level from above, after it crossed it for the first time ever last week. Should it fail to hold above this level, and given the fact the RSI is at overbought levels on the daily time frame, we could see investors take profit on their long trades accumulated last week. A bearish-looking price candle such as an inverted hammer is the sort of price action the bears would look for now. If seen, we should then expect the S&P to ease back towards the breakout area of 5857 to 5882 in the coming days.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX500 TREND LINES AND PIVOT POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions.
