Bulls and Bears zone for 09-26-2024Yesterday S&P 500 made ATH before pulling back and closing down for the day. Level to watch: 5830---5828 Report to watch: US: Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM ET by traderdan59Published 1
Another weekly bearish divergence SP500I see another bearish divergence on weekly timeframe of SP500. It may take weeks to play it out, but it looks really ugly. Winter is coming?Shortby marcinkwiat1989Published 2
A Fascinating Cycle in the S&P 500's ($SPX) Century-Long JourneyExplore this intriguing pattern in the S&P 500's performance over the past century, as highlighted by analyst Jay Kaeppel at Sentimentrader: - The Mid-Decade Boost: Remarkably, the 18-month period starting from October of a '4' ending year to March of a '6' ending year has consistently seen positive growth in the equity markets for the last ten decades - Visual Evidence: The accompanying chart illustrates the S&P 500's SP:SPX performance over the last 100 years, specifically highlighting the gains from October of years ending in 4 to March of years ending in 6 - Historical Success: We're on the cusp of this period once again. Historically, this timeframe has been lucrative, with the 1930s showing an impressive 64% return, while the 2010s saw a more modest, yet positive, return of about 4.5%. On average, returns of 35.8% were achieved during this periods - Cautionary Notes: While history provides a pattern, it's not a definitive predictor. Major fluctuations can and do occur Moreover, Jay points out that the current Shiller PE ratio stands high at 36.83 this October, potentially capping the upside when compared to starting points past decades in October of years ending in 4 -> Your Thoughts? Given this historical trend, do you believe that the trend in this decade will be positive again in the next 18 months, or do you believe that the current economic indicators make the patterns of the past irrelevant?by OfficerDonutPublished 2
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count from October 2022The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed or could soon complete an extended Elliott five wave pattern up from the October 2022 bottom. Both weekly RSI and MACD have significant bearish divergences. Shortby markrivestPublished 4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant fluctuations, breaching the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and attaining the Inner Index Rally level of 5666 and the Key Resistance level of 5667. The index is on the verge of achieving the targeted Inner Index Rally at 5739. Yet, a potential retraction to 5620 in the upcoming week's session, with the prospect of further descent to the subsequent Mean Support indicated at 5552, could disrupt this progression. Conversely, an expected downward trend may be intercepted by the realization of a robust rebound to the Inner Index Rally at 5739, negating the anticipated decline. by TradeSelecterPublished 3
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts๐Shortby FieryTradingPublished 10106
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: 16 - 20 SeptemberWeekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, Fed Cuts Interest Rates, US Dollar, S&P/ASX 200 Index Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. - S&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed Decision - Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 0.5% - Dollar Trades Mixed after Fed Rate Cut - Australian S&P/ASX 200 Index Hits All-Time High Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. ๐ FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.09:59by FXOpenPublished 116
The U.S. Markets are likely to have one last push before....The U.S. markets have been inflated to the point of near exhaustion, propped up by nothing more than a money printer that goes brrr... brrrr... brrrrrrrrrrr. However, this seemingly never-ending run is coming to an end. Trump will most likely be elected president again. His first term (45) and his second term (47) will likely mark the greatest market crash of all timeโthe end of the everything bubble! 4 + 5 = 9; 4 + 7 = 11; 9 + 11 = 20. They will likely prop the market up until his administration takes power, then... Shorting these markets will be the opportunity of a lifetime! Good luck, and always use a stop loss!by MetaShacklePublished 5
The U.S. is now entering a recessionThe U.S. economy has faced a number of factors in recent years that may increase the likelihood of a recession. My expectations regarding the recession were not about whether it would happen or not. The fact that a recession would occur was already confirmed in 2023, and the question was only when it would start and how soon it would happen. During the current crisis, the U.S. postponed the recession by all possible means, but eventually, all confirmations of the recession's onset were received. Now the U.S. is triggering a new global crisis, which will be accompanied by all the resulting consequences, including its spread around the world. Letโs take a closer look at the key aspects: 1. Inflation and Monetary Policy - High Inflation: Inflation in the U.S. has long remained above the target level of 2%, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take measures to contain it. The rapid increase in interest rates to fight inflation may slow economic growth, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. - Tight Monetary Policy: The Fed has raised interest rates to a level that many economists consider "restrictive," making it harder to access credit, reducing investment activity, and limiting consumer spending. 2. Labor Market Situation - Labor Market Challenges: While the U.S. labor market has been strong for a long time (low unemployment, steady wage growth), there are signs that companies are starting to cut back on hiring, and layoffs are increasing. The reduction in jobs in the tech sector in late 2023 and early 2024 could be a precursor to slowing economic activity. - Declining Productivity: In some industries, productivity is falling, which may indicate an overheated economy and a subsequent slowdown in activity. 3. Consumer Activity - Rising Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates are leading to increased costs for mortgages and consumer loans, which reduces spending. With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, a decrease in activity could lead to a slowdown in GDP growth. - Decline in Real Incomes: Despite wage growth, high inflation can erode real incomes, which limits consumption. 4. Geopolitical Factors and Instability - Geopolitical Instability: A complex geopolitical environment is driving up costs for energy, food, and other key goods, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy. - Supply Chain Issues: Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and geopolitical risks, although somewhat eased, continue to affect production processes and trade. 5. Debt Burden and Budgetary Issues - Government Debt: U.S. debt continues to rise, and the government is struggling to service it in an environment of high interest rates. This increases fiscal pressure and reduces the ability to use budgetary stimulus in the event of a recession. - Budgetary Constraints: The reduction in budget programs and fiscal stimulus introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic may also contribute to slowing economic activity. 6. Financial Markets - Stock Market Volatility: Instability in financial markets and falling asset values can reduce household and investor wealth, leading to lower consumption and investment. - Credit Risks: Rising interest rates may lead to an increase in loan defaults and debt obligations, worsening financial stability. Forecast and Probability of a Recession - According to estimates from many analysts and economists, the probability of a recession in the U.S. in 2024 remains high โ around 50-60%, given current economic factors. - The main risks are associated with the overly tight monetary policy of the Fed, geopolitical instability, and rising borrowing costs, which limit activity from both consumers and businesses. - However, some economists believe that a soft landing (without a deep downturn) is possible if the Fed can balance inflation and economic growth. Thus, the recession is confirmed. Shortby SmolletPublished 8
SPX: Danger level aheadFor sure we will get a drop in S&P these day's, but how big will it be ? At the best it is going to be a rebalancing from large cap so small (as suggested by Tom Lee), but tumbling down to 5350 an below should result a correction till 4300 range (till next summer) when the extend of the recession should be visible. On soft landing up to 15000 in 2030 ?Shortby darth.stocksPublished 2
SPX500 H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceSPX500 is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,675.99 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Stop loss is at 5,750.00 which is a level that sits above another 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 5,565.20 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (โCompanyโ, โweโ) by a third-party provider (โTFA Global Pte Ltdโ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.Short03:14by FXCMPublished 4412
S&P500 hits all time high before Feds Rates CutClosing all my trades and taking profits for now. No one knows how the market will react off Feds Rates Cut and unemployment claims. If the market continues the rally, i believe it's only to lure in more buyers at this point. I prefer to wait for a good pullback for the next few months before looking to buy again. Buying at all time high is stupid and trying to predict it is just pure gambling. by willisloyefxPublished 226
S&P500 Extremely well supported. This uptrend will continue.Just 6 days ago (September 10, see chart below) we gave the most optimal medium-term buy signal on S&P500 index (SPX) as the price tested and held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level: The price rebounded strongly and is imitating the 0.5 Fib bounces of the previous 12 months that all started very strong rallies (+10.50% the weakest!). This week we would like to go back to our long-term perspective on the wider time-frames (1W on this chart) as ahead of the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, we expect very high volatility that might cloud investor thinking and confidence to a strong degree. There is no reason to diverge from our long-term bullish outlook (yet) as the index remains extremely well supported on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was approached on August's low and was last time tested (and held) a year ago (October 23 2023). A Higher Highs trend-line guides S&P to higher prices, similar to every such trend-line since 2016. The 1W RSI has started to form a Bearish Divergence, which was effective only in early 2022 and the start of the Inflation Crisis. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, the Sine Waves show that this uptrend is far from over. Technically we should now see a continuation to around 5800 - 6000 and then a new medium-term correction. Our long-term Target is 6500, which based on the progressive nature of cyclical rises within this pattern (+63.50% then 105.00%), seems a modest one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Longby TradingShotPublished 19
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, rectangles, and colored levels. Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful. BEST, MTby MT_TUpdated 1
Market Insights: Why Now is the Time to Go Long on SPX500USDThe S&P 500 continues to show resilience, and my overall bias remains bullish. Several key fundamentals support this outlook: 1. Cooling inflation: Recent data suggests inflation is moderating, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve. 2. Strong labor market: Unemployment remains low, supporting consumer spending and economic stability. 3. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI and tech innovations are driving productivity and growth across sectors. 4. Corporate earnings resilience: Many companies are adapting well to the current economic environment, maintaining profitability. To capitalize on this bullish trend while managing risk, I'm utilizing probabilities in my chart analysis to identify optimal entry points for long positions. 12M: 2W: 12H: Iโd love to hear your thoughts on this trade idea! What are your views on SPX500USD? Feel free to share your insights and opinions below!Longby Jasminex1x2Published 4
S&P 500 Eyes New High Amid Fed Rate CutsAs Fed Rate Cuts Loom, U.S. Economic Health May Determine Market Trajectory The performance of stocks, bonds, and the dollar following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle could hinge significantly on the health of the U.S. economy. The Fed is poised to commence a series of rate cuts on Wednesday, having previously raised borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades. Market expectations, as indicated by LSEG data, point to an approximate 250 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price is nearing its all-time high (ATH) and shows potential to break through and set a new ATH, driven by the impending rate cuts. The S&P 500 is expected to test the 5675 and 5707 levels. Sustained stability above this zone could propel the index to new highs around 5780 and 5820. Conversely, a downside move could be triggered by stability below 5643, targeting the 5584 level. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5675 Resistance Levels: 5707, 5745, 5780 Support Levels: 5643, 5620, 5585 Trend Outlook: Consolidation: 5643 - 5707 Upward Trend: Above 5675 Downward Trend: Below 5643Longby SroshMayiUpdated 1115
US500 (S&P): Trend in 2H time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas. If the S&P chart does not react to close levels, this analysis will be invalid. So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive. BEST, MTby MT_TUpdated 3
More up for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a correction down and after that it went up again. SO next week we could see more upside for this pair. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish again to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveLongby EduwaveTradingPublished 110
S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally? Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below): As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective. Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency. The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion. Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk. In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ๐, FOLLOW โ , SHARE ๐ and COMMENT โ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐Longby TradingShotPublished 34
SPX500USD Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5,711.6. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 5,801.4 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Longby SignalProviderPublished 113
S&P 500 to print final move to 6500It goes without saying, this bull market has been the most hated Iโve ever known. Retail traders attempts to go โshortโ on every leg up resulted in quick squeezes. Every 1% to 4% correction brought renewed calls for the end of all things. Including time I believe. There is a reason why 90% of market participants fail in trading. Emotions. The last four long ideas published by Without Worries are linked below. Read the comments in each to get an impression of the distain retail traders have for this bull market. The Cup and Handle idea for example, published on November 9th 2023. Many reading the idea were understandably skeptic. I tell you that to tell you this... The idea was much more than a chart pattern. The idea included studies from Dollar index and more importantly market sentiment. So lets focus on those two in a little more detail. ** Market sentiment ** The market sentiment in November last was incredibly bearish. The Put/Call ratio was sky rocketing, in other words retail traders were all โshortโ on the market. That was a mistake. Guess what? They're doing it again. Weekly Put/Call ratio If you follow my practices youโll know one of our golden rules, we never never long into active resistance. Just donโt. Donโt even think about it. On the above weekly Put/Call chart we can see retail traders are betting heavily with both feet for a market correction as the Put/Call ratio shows a strong demand for โShortโ contracts. We can see RSI is actively rallying into resistance. Oh dearโฆ ** The dollar index ** The dollar has entered a bull market. Or so it appears. On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a Life Cross with the index trading above the 2-day/200 sma. However on closer inspection just as in late 2022 and indeed late 2023, both price action and RSI support have failed. This will be a short lived bull market, for now. Support and resistance is the ultimate cheat code. It has been integral to the previous ideas shared. It amazes how many continue to dismiss the importance of practicing this simple concept. Look left. 2-day DXY ** The conclusion ** On the above monthly chart several technical developments have occurred. Together with market sentiment and dollar index structure, the combination provides a powerful message. The red arrows highlight each significant market top over the last 10 years when sentiment was incredibly bullish. The blue arrows record sentiment at extreme bearish levels. Hereโs the interesting part, when sentiment was this bearish price action was already at the lower half of the rising channel. There is not an instance when a rise from lower to higher half of the channel with confirmation of support (weโve confirmed) did not result in a resistance test at the top of the channel. The resistance is now between 6500 and 6700. Is it possible the market collapses like many retail traders are now calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww ** previous S&P 500 ideas ** S&P 500 - Cup and Handle S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong - Part II S&P 500 to 6000 Longby without_worriesUpdated 565666
S&P500 INDEX (US500) Important Bullish BreakoutThe US500 reached a new record high yesterday and closed above a key intraday resistance level. This could signal the possibility of continued growth, with the next resistance level expected to be around 5800 Psychological level.Longby linofx1Published 1
Return to Normal ExitSo many people are calling for soft landing. It never goes with the crown. I'm going to call Top here.Shortby NoSecondBestUpdated 3325