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[SPX] The sucker move on S&P 500suckΒ·er punch /ˈsΙ™kΙ™r pΙ™nCH/ an unexpected punch or blow. So, there's sucker punch, and there is sucker move. Here's one of sucker move on SP:SPX , and I hate this kind of move. The price kind of enjoying the red journey & suddenly move to opposite direction in big way. So, is crash still on agenda ? Well, this one for me is kind of neutral for now as the weekly is basically not bearish yet, but the daily is kind of tantrum right now...yeah it wants to go lower, but it's not....lot of sucker moves. Maybe let it made its mind first. On the weekly chart, it's bearish if the price breaking 26 week EMA, or the MACD is breaking the support, otherwise it might just buying time until the election night.
SP:SPX
by moressay
Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024 Historical Context: (the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004) 1998: - On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25% - The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years - By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 Current Scenario: (the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030) 2024: - The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5% - Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998 - Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble Future Speculations: - AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years - Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025 Conclusion: While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008 -> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
2
S&P 500 Poised for Bullish Move Ahead of CPI ReportS&P 500 Technical Analysis with Inflation Data: U.S. futures remain steady ahead of the highly anticipated CPI report. The market is expected to be highly sensitive to the results. Current projections suggest the CPI will be around 2.5%, which would signal a weakening USD, potentially driving indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI comes in above 2.7% or 2.8%, the market movement could become unpredictable, with a possible downward shift. The S&P 500 is currently trading above the pivot line of 5,453, with potential upside targets at 5,526 and 5,573. Conversely, if the price falls below 5,453, it increases the likelihood of a move toward 5,412, particularly if the CPI exceeds 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5460 Resistance Levels: 5525, 5573, 5616 Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5360 Expected Trading Range: 5412 - 5573 Trend: Bullish as long as the price remains above 5,453.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SPX - Clear View to All Time High? Not so fastGood morning nerds! Alright, quick 5 minute update on SPX. There's a motto for the update today and that is "We are not out of the woods yet!" We've seen a decent move the last two days off the 5400 test last Friday but even though it looks decent, a lot still needs to happen. We're still trading below the 21 day exponential moving average in a month that tends to be bearish or at least corrective. A bullish August into a bearish September seems to rhyme with prior price action from previous years. Ideally a move back to test that 5400 level would be preferred before a move back to ATH, however if we happen to get back into the distribution zone before retesting 5400, then it's likely we will move to 5800 and probably higher. If we get back to 5322-5400 beforehand, then that 5800 target by EOY becomes more realistic. You gotta let the market breathe and especially in these months, you need to be a little more conservative with your positioning solely based on the season that we are in.
SP:SPXLong
by bitdoctor
2yr Yield - FEDFUNDS "Inversion"Over the past ~25yr, we've seen 3 instances of 2yr Yield dropping below the FEDFUNDS rate set by the Federal Reserve. All 3 instances coincide with Recessions. On this chart, you see the Yield Differential (Yellow), the SPX (Candles), along with the time of said "Rate Cycle Inversions" (Blue Bar Counts Below Price). As you can see, all 3 previous instances lead to significant corrections and/or volatility with notable downside. Not since the 2008 "GFC" have we seen an "inversion" of this magnitude. While correlation is NOT causation...It can be a "warning light" signaling 'Danger Ahead'. It is certainly forewarning us that the probabilities of a recession/down-turn are gaining momentum. Yes, people have been calling for Doom n Gloom, "Top is In", Recession imminent... for a couple years now. And I am not recommending you sell everything and hide under a rock. What I am recommending however, is that you reduce leverage if you have any, perhaps lock in some profits while you're "on top", and head into the coming days/weeks/months with eyes wide open, alert to potential quick corrections when this wild ride inevitably 'ends'. Each instance resulted in the "recent lows" being violated. If history rhymes this time, that could mean low 3k's incoming for SPX. COULD. Can your portfolio/strategy/mindset handle that kind of volatility/drawdown? Just some food for thought. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management. Thank you for your time and consideration.
SP:SPX
by mrjones2020
Sell OpportunityTrading Signal: S&P 500 Index Action: Sell Entry Price: 5496.00 Take Profit: 5340.00 Stop Loss: 5565.00 Rationale: The S&P 500 index is currently positioned for a sell trade based on technical analysis indicating potential downside momentum. The entry point is set at 5496.00, with a take-profit target of 5340.00 and a stop-loss at 5565.00 to manage risk. Disclaimer: Trading signals are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis and consider risk management strategies before executing trades.
SP:SPXShort
by GODOCM
SPX Buy forecastS&P 500 INDEX New forecastπŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»πŸ‘¨β€πŸ’» Note: Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP. Please support this idea with a Like and COMMENT if you find it useful click "follow" on our profile if you will like these type of trading ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!! lemme know your thoughts in the comment sec...
SP:SPXLong
by King_CityStar_Fx
1
SPX Update - Good CPI Scenario worked outHello traders! Today I update the idea I shared on 13th Aug. On 13th Aug i highlighted 3 scenarios (1 on tradingview considering bad CPI, 2 on telegram considering mid and good CPIs) SPX followed the bullish scenario (green) - after CPI Aug release. Market is really weird, personally I think that Inflation cuts will lead to lower levels if 50bps (because it would mean that US economy is really bleeding, bearish short term) - while would lead to a full bullmarket if 25pbs. Right now we are holding and hedging position on BTC - which replicates SPX movements. Buy Spot at 55235$ - Short at 60465$ Waiting for retest + confirmation to close the "wrong" alignment. - Saving our convenient buy (and planning others at lower levels) is our highest priority. Send a DM for private channel.
SP:SPX
by flectxino
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively. πŸ”΅πš†π™·π™°πšƒ π™Έπš‚ 𝙰 π™±πš„πš‚π™Έπ™½π™΄πš‚πš‚ π™²πšˆπ™²π™»π™΄? A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production. Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew. πŸ”΅π™±πš„πš‚π™Έπ™½π™΄πš‚πš‚ π™²πšˆπ™²π™»π™΄πš‚ 𝙰𝙽𝙳 πšƒπ™·π™΄ πš‚π™΄π™°πš‚π™Ύπ™½πš‚ 𝙾𝙡 πšƒπ™·π™΄ πšˆπ™΄π™°πš Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play: Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases. Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns. Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow. Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts nature’s growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens. πŸ”΅π™Έπ™Όπ™Ώπ™°π™²πšƒ 𝙾𝙡 π™±πš„πš‚π™Έπ™½π™΄πš‚πš‚ π™²πšˆπ™²π™»π™΄πš‚ 𝙾𝙽 π™³π™Έπ™΅π™΅π™΄πšπ™΄π™½πšƒ πš‚π™΄π™²πšƒπ™Ύπšπš‚ Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services. For example: Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending. Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant. Crypto Sector: SP500: πŸ”΅π™½π™°πš…π™Έπ™Άπ™°πšƒπ™Έπ™½π™Ά π™±πš„πš‚π™Έπ™½π™΄πš‚πš‚ π™²πšˆπ™²π™»π™΄πš‚ π™°πš‚ 𝙰𝙽 π™Έπ™½πš…π™΄πš‚πšƒπ™Ύπš Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns. Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing. Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated. Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur. πŸ”΅π™Άπ™Ύπš…π™΄πšπ™½π™Όπ™΄π™½πšƒ π™Ώπ™Ύπ™»π™Έπ™²π™Έπ™΄πš‚ 𝙰𝙽𝙳 π™±πš„πš‚π™Έπ™½π™΄πš‚πš‚ π™²πšˆπ™²π™»π™΄πš‚ Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment. Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. πŸ”΅π™²π™Ύπ™½π™²π™»πš„πš‚π™Έπ™Ύπ™½ Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations. Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
3
SPXBe careful T= 4600 Be careful The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator introduced in 1978. The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum, and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an asset’s price. An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30. The RSI line crossing below the overbought line or above oversold line is often seen by traders as a signal to buy or sell. The RSI works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets.
SP:SPXShort
by Mozart-BTC
SPX - Bullish CluesGapped up to start the week and its another gap up today. We'll obviously have to see this develop to have an idea of whether this bounce will have any strength But significant pivots often happen with higher time frame gaps such as a weekend gap as we had yesterday. Notice that the previous two bottoming pivots began with a gap up on the week chart. This is a little clue that this may be a significant pivot forming. The bounce has come between the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement. This is ideal ratio of a bullish recovery. We'll see how this develops 🧐. Not advice
SP:SPXLong
by dRends35
5