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Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 25th—> Aug 30th)Weekly Market Recap 🌐 Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 Market Overview: US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3% - 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4% **Economic Indicators:** - **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts. - **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut. - **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low. - **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. **Corporate News:** - **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories. - **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment. - **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined. - **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets. - **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. - **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges. - **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook. - **AMD:** Made headlines with a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports: - **U.S. Core PCE Inflation** - **U.S. Q2 GDP** - **U.S. Housing Data** - **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ), Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), Dell Technologies ( NYSE:DELL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Applying Technical Analysis on an index (discussion)This is a topic that keeps coming back into my mind. I am a believer in and user of TA, but the concept of applying it to indices keep haunting me. I googled it and found a few YouTube videos that did nothing to help. So I decided to put my thoughts down on paper. Here’s the thing, using the S&P500 as an example. In an uptrend, we know that the market in general is moving up. And vice versa in a downtrend. We also know that the S&P500 consists of 500 large companies, each with a life, business, earnings and share price movement of their own. Recently, a handful of tech companies have taken charge, accounting for about 35% (MotleyFool, July 2024), but that leaves 65% to the others. So how is it that technical analysts use their tools to predict the movement of an index, then it clearly has no direction of its own? Technical traders will look at support and resistance levels, directions, pullbacks, indicators and so on to try to predict future behavior. They will place their trades based on this. On stocks, commodities, FX. And on indices. And here’s my quarrel with myself: an index is a derivative, it is 100% dependent on the movements of the underlying assets, which in fact IS the index. An index has no will or movement of its own, it moves as the underlying moves. Again, using the S&P500 as an example, it is the combined movement of 500 stocks that move the index. If the S&P500 is approaching a level of resistance, that should be irrelevant. The index is like a puppet on a string, it has no influence of its moves. In theory, ALL of the 500 companies making up the index might not be near resistance (not likely, but in theory). So, the idea of an index bouncing off resistance makes no sense, it all depends on the action of the underlying assets. Yes, as Mag7 make up 35% of the index, their behavior weighs heavy, but in terms of TA for the index that does not matter. If all of them should happen to also meet resistance, there is still 65% of the index that might not be. In essence, TA should not work on an index. On a stock, traders make a direct impact on price and thereby charts, they are seamlessly connected. For an index, there is no such direct connection, it is through a number of underlying components, 500 of them in the case of S&P500. However, we know that TA is heavily used on indices, and sometimes actually work as well. Just to mention, I know you can trade indices “directly” via i.e. futures and CFDs, but these are derivatives of the index (which itself is a derivative...), and as such has no impact on the price or direction of the actual index. Statements like “the S&P500 is approaching a strong level of resistance, so we might see a pullback” puzzles me. The only way the S&P500 can experience a pullback is if the majority of the components, in terms of value, also experience a pullback. The index has no movement of its own, it has no free will. So why does it work? Before we dive into that, I must say that I mainly look at trend and general direction when trading indices. I rarely even consider support and resistance or any other factors. I sometimes look at the strength of a movement, but again any strength is dependent on the underlying, and so indicators i.e. applied to an index is of limited value as I see it. Why TA might work on indices is a complex topic, and there is no correct answer. One theory is that (still using S&P500 as example) when the S&P is approaching a level of resistance, it can make investors anxious. If they are long NVDA, MSFT, F, WMT, they might think they should sell or reduce their position. “The market is expected to pull back, better take profit, I can buy back after”. If enough investors do this, the index will do just as predicted. Also, if the market is making ATH after ATH, more people will want to get onboard, pushing the index even further. In closing, I looked at the 5-year chart of the S&P500. You must look really hard to find definitive levels of support and resistance, as can be seen from the chart. I would argue there are none. No levels being touched several times, no clear levels of bounce either up or down. Trend is present, but considering what I have discussed above, is this index related? Or is the index simply moving as the underlying is moving? Clearly the latter, as an index has no direction of its own. I am sure there are many views on this, as there should be. TA is a very subjective “science” and I expect many opposing views, especially on my last paragraph. It is highly welcome! I started this post being very uncertain what I think of TA applied to indices. As I was writing, thinking, considering, I have come closer to deciding where I stand on this.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by WeRideAtDawn
2
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD went up little more, made a small correction down and went up again. For next week we could see more upside for this pair to finish the impulsive leg. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated notable resilience, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5564 and positioning itself beneath the attained Inner Index Rally at 5666. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained upward momentum aimed at retesting the completed Interim Index Rally at 5666, with an eye on the subsequent upside objectives represented by the Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the ultimate Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is important to note that the attainment of these targets is likely to prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
240823 Market Outlook $SPX $DJI $VOO $SPY $QQQChart S&P overlay Fed interest rate a few conclusions: 1. Stocks can rise and fall throughout rate cut cycle; 2. Rise in stocks is usually associated with minimum interest rate in the cycle; 3. US stocks were rising throughout rate hike cycle in later years; 4. More money supply management tools were introduced in last quarter century like QE policy; 5. More tools like Circuit Breaker were introduced to stop panic selling in US stocks since Financial crisis 2008; 6. The market has become more certain and efficient; 7. Investors must always recognize the market situation, cuz US management is research based and one cycle is different from another. A new prosperous cycle is enact at the moment. Cheers
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
Could this be a big bat pattern?SPX went parabolic after breaking the 1.61 of the bottoming swing. This move has now extended to the 2.61 of that fib set and currently sold off to under it. It's possible this is a bat pattern. If it is, then we probably made a high yesterday. One caveat of the bat to always keep in mind is if it fails it can evolve into a crab and when that happens you are essentially "Right" but you're going to get spiked out. Always a risk to keep in mind when trading a bat. We have a similar pattern in the DJI. Interestingly, we have not made as deep retracements in the RUT and Nasdaq. Nasdaq actually looking much like a classic bull trap. The possible Nasdaq bull trap and bat patterns in DJI and SPX resulted in me opening swing shorts in DJI, SPX and Nasdaq yesterday. Waiting to see if we can make the follow through break today. Will trail stops and add to positions if we do.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
11
S&P500 / Rise in Anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole AddressStock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The S&P 500 recently pulled back from its resistance at 5643 and is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 5584 and 5620, awaiting a decisive breakout. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 5644 is necessary to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at 5675. If 5675 is breached, it could confirm a bullish trend continuation. Bearish Scenario: Should the price remain below 5584 and close a 4-hour candle beneath this level, it could signal the onset of a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 5525 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5602 Resistance Levels: 5620, 5644, 5676 Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5460 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5620 and 5460. Current Trend: Bearish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame... We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations. Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy. Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance. When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line. WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW - I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade. On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
SP:SPX
by I3ig_Trades
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Final Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
SPX500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 5593.53, which is a pullback resistance Our take profit will be at 5504.44, a pullback support level close to 23.6% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be at 5673.53, a swing high resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM