SPX Weekly Chart SPX respecting 21 Weekly Moving Averages and in steady uptrend . Expecting to continue the same and top around early September towards 5700+ and cool down to 21 WMALongby PJCharts4FUNPublished 0
Inv scallop to 6400...??currently we are marching towards an inverse scallop of 6400. after that, i believe we will see a correction back to the baseline, or lower.Longby MtGoxFXPublished 1
Crash 'schedule'...? Here's one hypothesis on when the next crash / pullback may happen, based on recent patterns.by MtGoxFXPublished 4
This is not the end of the bull marketThe S&P 500 closed at a new high last week, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term. On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 67% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year. S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market. AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024 In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment. S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025 Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples. Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers. Consumer Spending Trends Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations. S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals. Key Economic Events in the Coming Week Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets: Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for S&P500. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.Longby InvestMatePublished 115
Stock market in a frenzyThe more investors expect a "pullback", the less they expect it, and the more the index goes up!Longby Super_B_XinRPublished 5
SPX ~ 5800 Possible VariantAfter the covid monetary policy, and helicopter money handouts, the cycle of tightening and rate hikes to fight inflation began. At this point, there is already talk that it is time to lower the rate, although let's be honest - inflation has not gone anywhere, and continues to grow. In this case, we will get a secondary inflation already structural, which again will have to be flooded with free money. Apparently it is obvious only to me that it does not work and Mr. Powell is making the same mistakes that were made by all Fed chairmen before him: Paul Volcker 1979 - 1987 Alan Greenspan 1987 - 2006 Ben Bernanke 2006 - 2014 Janet Yellen 2014 - 2018 In this situation, which will happen again with a 95% probability - The SPX index has the option of developing a diagonal triangle, which in Wave Theory has a form called a Ending Diagonal.Longby DevilOfTradeUpdated 4
Little short in front of usTime for little correction after big pump last week Shortby macko_O13Published 1
Historical SPX Log AdvanceFor almost 100 years, US stocks have grinded upwards at a logarithmic rate. From this vantage point, to say they are over-valued OR under-valued is not an objective assessment. You could say they are on track to what they have previously done. #spx #nasdaq #stocks #marketsby BadchartsPublished 3316
A bit more upside for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD finished the bigger correction (wave 4) and after that it went up again just like I've said in my outlook. So next week we could see a little more upside to finish wave 5. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! EduwaveLongby EduwaveTradingPublished 4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz has demonstrated resilience in the abbreviated trading week, achieving our long-anticipated Outer Index Rally 5560 target. The current price action suggests attaining the primary target of the Next Outer Index Rally at 5615. Nevertheless, the prospect of a rapid decline to the Mean Support level at 5515 cannot be discounted.by TradeSelecterPublished 3
S&P 500 SHORT ALERT HELLO TRADERS I think of s&p 500 short on this period (28 june to monday 1st of july), price range resisatnce would be 5507-5514 next realiable support would be 5237-5274 so beware of your open position! Shortby hossein198Updated 2
Another 20% up from here on the SPX / M2SLLook at the consolidation from 1987 to 1992, when it broke out, markets went up for 7 years! It's safe to expect another 20% on the SPX from here.Longby brian7683Published 2
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: 1 - 5 JulyWeekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, USD/CAD, Gold Price, TSLA Stock Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. - S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis - USD/CAD Breaks Key Support - Gold Price Prospects for H2 - TSLA Stock Price Hits over 5-Month High Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.10:06by FXOpenPublished 1111
SPX vs NDX vs RUT vs TSX - Analysis Order of TopsDot Com Bubble (2000): Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX Duration: 182 days Financial Crisis (2007-2008): Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> NASDAQ (NDX) / S&P 500 (SPX) -> TSX Duration: 366 days 2014-2015 Market Events: Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) -> NASDAQ (NDX) Duration: 426 days 2018 Market Events: Top Order: TSX -> Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) Duration: 64 days 2021-2022 Market Events: Top Order: Russell 2000 (RUT) -> S&P 500 (SPX) / NASDAQ (NDX) -> TSX Duration: 273 days Key Observations: Order of Peaks: Historically, the Russell 2000 often peaks first, indicating early signs of market stress in smaller companies. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 typically follow closely, with the TSX sometimes lagging behind. Market Tops: The vertical lines indicate the specific points in time when each market peaked, showing the staggered pattern of market tops. Performance and Volatility: The NASDAQ shows the highest volatility and growth over the period, reflecting the tech sector's influence. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also show significant growth, while the TSX exhibits more stability with less volatility. Conclusion: This analysis provides a clear understanding of the timing and order of market peaks across different indices, highlighting the importance of monitoring smaller companies (RUT) for early signs of market tops and the sequential impact on larger indices (NDX, SPX) and the more stable TSX.Longby brian7683Updated 1
S&P short entry found todayI took the S&P short entry today, this looks good to me. There is an ascending wedge. The macro makes sense, with the markets repricing towards one cut. BTC sold off first, which usually happens. Equity could keep going with the government spending, but I'm seeing more calls on risk off.Shortby decklyndubsUpdated 112