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SPCUSD trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally. Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
VANTAGE:SP500
by TotoshkaTrades
2
Short SPX500Elite Live Analysis Weekly Market Structure: Price tapped into a key structure level and showed clear rejection. Daily Market Structure: Currently bearish, actively pulling price lower. 4H Market Structure: A new structure has just been confirmed, providing fresh short-term context. Expectations: Looking for a structure-to-structure move on the Daily timeframe, aligning with the broader bearish bias. Targets: Primary targets are areas of structured liquidity and liquidity pools resting below current price levels.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheEliteTrading
S&P500 Bullish breakout support at 5980A fragile ceasefire is in place between the U.S. and Iran, but both sides are still blaming each other for missile attacks. Tensions remain high, especially as Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium is missing. Markets were shaken—stocks gave back some gains and oil prices dipped after Israel threatened to respond. In business news, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares as part of a plan worth up to $865 million. Starbucks denied it's selling its China business, and Northern Trust said it won’t merge with BNY Mellon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak to Congress today, likely defending the decision to keep interest rates steady until at least September, despite pressure from Trump for major cuts. NATO leaders are meeting in the Netherlands, with talks focused on defense spending. Trump is expected to push allies to meet the 5% target. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6115 Resistance Level 2: 6147 Resistance Level 3: 6180 Support Level 1: 5980 Support Level 2: 5950 Support Level 3: 5910 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P 500 Futures Rise on Ceasefire Relief, Eyes on Fed PowellSPX500 OVERVIEW U.S. Futures Rise as Ceasefire Eases Tensions, Focus Turns to Powell U.S. stock futures climbed on Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures up 0.8%, extending gains from the previous session as Middle East tensions eased following a ceasefire announcement. President Trump confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which appears to be holding for now—though early signs of potential violations have already emerged. Market attention is now firmly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress today, where traders hope to gain more clarity on the Fed’s economic outlook and rate path. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – SPX500 The price touched resistance at 6,098 and is currently hovering near that level. Failure to break above 6,098 may trigger a short-term correction toward 6,041, before another push higher. A confirmed breakout above 6,098 would open the path toward the All-Time High (ATH) at 6,143, followed by extended targets. Support Levels: 6041 → 6010 → 5966 Resistance Levels: 6143 → 6175 → 6225 Stability above 6,098 confirms bullish continuation, while failure to hold may suggest a temporary pullback before resuming the uptrend.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
4
Risk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment MattersRisk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment Matters More Than Chasing the “Holy Grail” In trading, most participants and analysts are focused on finding the so-called “Holy Grail” — the perfect entry point where the price moves in the desired direction and yields profit. However, few actually assess the risks involved, as if success is possible without factoring them in. Market reviews are often filled with levels, forecasts, and price directions, but rarely include probability estimates or potential losses. In my view, the real Holy Grail isn't a guaranteed profitable entry, but a scenario where the market offers a position with minimal risk relative to historical context. To identify such setups, we need a risk scale based on historical data — how favorable the current risk-to-reward ratio is compared to the past. It’s also crucial to understand that no one can predict price direction with certainty. The key to opening a position is not hope, but evaluating all possible scenarios — upward, downward, or sideways — and knowing the outcome in each case. Risk management is more than just placing a stop-loss; it’s a structured approach that should be central to any trading strategy. What Are Minimal Risks? “Minimal risk” is a relative concept — it only makes sense when measured against a defined scale. Building such a scale requires historical statistics: what were the maximum and minimum losses and profits for similar positions in the past? Profit-to-Loss Ratio The idea behind the search for the “Holy Grail” is to find moments when the market offers the best possible profit-to-risk ratio. For example, if the current ratio is 10, and historically it has ranged from 0 (low risk) to 100 (high risk), then 10 may be a good entry point. If the ratio approaches 80–90, it signals that the position is extremely risky. Why Are Probability and Risk Assessment Important? Market reviews often talk about resistance levels, volatility, and price direction — but rarely address the risks of different scenarios. No expert can predict market movements with certainty — if they could, they’d be billionaires. Opening positions without accounting for risks and scenario probabilities is extremely dangerous. How to Factor in Risks When Entering a Position The key question is: what will the profit-to-loss ratio be after entering a position, depending on whether the price goes up, down, or stays flat? It’s important to understand the consequences of each case and make decisions based on risk assessment. Risk Management Must Account for the Inability to React Instantly Conventional tools like stop-losses and limit orders often fail to protect capital effectively during sudden price spikes. These tools are particularly vulnerable when market makers or high-frequency algorithms trigger stop levels en masse. This highlights the need for more resilient risk management instruments — ones that can respond to volatility instantly and automatically. Options are one such tool, capable of limiting losses regardless of market dynamics. Without robust risk management, long-term profitability becomes statistically unlikely. Sooner or later, the market will present a scenario that can wipe out your capital — unless you’re properly protected. Important note: this is not an endorsement of options or any specific broker. It’s simply a conclusion based on the logic of building effective capital protection. If a broker only provides access to linear instruments (futures, spot, stocks) without the ability to hedge, it will inevitably lead to capital erosion — even for systematic traders. And if this article gets more than 100 rockets, I’ll continue sharing specific examples of low-risk trading assessments.
SP:SPX
by wien6000796
1
Stock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire AnnouncementStock Markets Rebound Following Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement Last night, U.S. President Donald Trump made a social media post announcing a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. According to his own words, the ceasefire is set to last “forever.” This announcement triggered a sharp bullish impulse (indicated by the blue arrow) on the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), pushing the price to a new high above the 6074 level. Just yesterday, traders feared that the United States could be drawn into yet another costly war following bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, today the stock markets are recovering, signalling growing optimism and a waning of fears over a major escalation of the conflict. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart When analysing the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) seven days ago, we identified an ascending channel. The angle of the trend remains relevant, while the width of the channel has expanded due to the downward movement caused by tensions in the Middle East. Notably: → the price marked the lower boundary of the channel as well as the internal lines (shown by black dots) dividing the channel into quarters; → the latest bullish impulse suggests that the upward trend is resuming after breaking out of the correction phase (indicated by red lines). It is possible that in the near future, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could reach the median line of the channel. There, the price may consolidate, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers—particularly if the peace in the Middle East proves to be lasting. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
🇺🇸 America at the Crossroads: Golden Age or Great Reset? As the S&P 500 crosses 6,000 , investors celebrate yet another all-time high. But beneath the surface of this rally lies an uncomfortable truth: we are standing at a national and market inflection point. This isn’t just another leg up. This is the top of a century-long trend channel, a moment where all prior historical peaks have led to sharp reversion . Will this time be different? 📉 Or are we heading into the final blow-off top of a fiat-fueled bull market ? 📈 Or is this the birth of a new nominal supercycle — a “Golden Age” driven by AI, deglobalization, and fiscal firehoses? 📊 The Chart That Frames the Future This chart stretches back to 1926. Price now presses against the upper blue boundary , just like in: 1929 → Great Depression 2000 → Dot-com Crash 2021 → Post-COVID Inflation Panic Every previous touch has ended in multi-year mean reversion . Will we now break out — or break down? 🕰️ The Fiat Currency Clock Is Ticking “The average lifespan of a fiat currency is 80–100 years.” The U.S. defaulted on gold bonds in 199 and the U.S. dollar was untethered from gold in 1971. We're many years into a fiat system. Every fiat regime in history has collapsed under debt, inflation, and loss of confidence . 📉 K-Shaped Economy and the Strained Consumer Since 2008, monetary policy has disproportionately enriched capital holders. Asset owners got rich. Wage earners stagnated. Now we see: -Record-high credit card interest -Rising consumer delinquencies -Real wages trailing inflation This is not a healthy economy — it’s a two-speed system with widening fractures. 📈 The Most Expensive Market in History? CAPE Ratio : ~33x — rivaling 1929 and 2000 ZIRP is gone , yet valuations remain elevated Investors are pushed out the risk curve by low real bond yields This is the result of TINA (There Is No Alternative) — but that narrative is fragile. 🏦 Cracks in the Core: Treasuries and Liquidity The U.S. Treasury market is flashing red: Weakening auction demand Foreign buyers (like China, Japan) stepping back Bank of Japan may be forced to liquidate U.S. debt Liquidity is thinning — just like in 2007 🤖 AI and the Accelerating Wealth Gap AI is a double-edged sword: It boosts productivity But it eliminates mid-skill jobs It consolidates wealth into a few mega-cap tech monopolies And it strains an already outdated energy grid AI could fuel inequality and fragility . 🌍 End of Globalization and Rise of BRICS The BRICS alliance is actively challenging dollar hegemony Trade is shifting to commodity-backed and bilateral settlement U.S. foreign policy is being stress-tested on multiple fronts (Ukraine, Taiwan, Middle East) The post-WWII order is unraveling. And America must adapt — or lose ground. ⚠️ Blow-Off Top Before the Storm? This market feels like a blow-off top : Narrow breadth Retail mania AI euphoria Massive fiscal deficits All-time high valuations Next step? A potential deflationary bust , followed by a stimulus-fueled inflationary wave — especially in energy and commodities. ⚡ Power Grid Risk in an Electrified World AI and EVs demand **enormous energy inputs**. But: U.S. grid is **underdeveloped** Transmission infrastructure is outdated Blackouts are increasing China, meanwhile, has been quietly building resilient grid systems for over a decade taking advantage of Nuclear, while The U.S. risks falling behind. 🌀 The Fourth Turning: Crisis as Catalyst “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain According to Fourth Turning theory, we are nearing the climax of a ~100-year generational cycle — a period marked by institutional breakdown, global conflict, and radical transformation. Each cycle contains four “turnings,” and we are now deep into the fourth: the Crisis phase. The current Fourth Turning began in 2008 with the Global Financial Crisis. It is expected to resolve sometime between 2025 and the early 2030s — a period of upheaval that mirrors previous turning points such as: The Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946) The American Civil War (1861–1865) The Revolutionary War (1775–1794) As Neil Howe writes in The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023): “Each Fourth Turning is a time of radical disruption — a time when an old order is replaced by a new one, often through war, collapse, or revolution. ” Today, we face: Political polarization at generational extremes Sovereign debt levels previously only seen during world wars Eroding trust in media, financial institutions, and government Technological upheaval via AI and automation Geopolitical flashpoints from Ukraine to Taiwan The market, the dollar, and our political system are not outside this cycle — they are central to it. The question is no longer whether we are in a transformation, but: What kind of world will emerge on the other side? 🚧 The Fork in the Road: Two Futures We stand at a fork in the road — not just for markets, but for **America’s future**: 🟢 Path 1: The Breakout – Golden Age AI revolution supercharges GDP Commodities rise but wages lag Treasury/Fed normalize debt via inflation S&P and assets soar in **nominal terms**, even if real value lags 🔴 Path 2: The Reversion – Great Reset Credit cycle breaks Liquidity vanishes Markets mean revert 40–60% Global capital flees to safety 🧠 Final Thought: Don’t Chase the Top “At the top of a long-term channel, humility is a better strategy than hubris.” Now is not the time to blindly chase momentum. Whether we break out or break down, the risks are rising — and history offers few second chances after peaks like this. We stand not only at a technical inflection, but at a civilizational one. The Fourth Turning is reaching its apex, and markets are reflecting that tension — between collapse and rebirth, between order and entropy. 📌 Hedge. 📌 Diversify. 📌 Prepare. Because one way or another, America is crossing a threshold — and there’s no going back.
SP:SPX
by jonlorquet
5
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025- S&P 500 reversed from support area - Likely to rise to resistance level 6065.00 S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area between the support level 5930.00 (which reversed the price multiple times from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse 1 from last month. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of June. S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6065.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
CBOE:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
S&P500 calm reaction to geopolitical riskGeopolitics: The US launched airstrikes on Iran, raising global tensions. Iran has vowed to retaliate, and Israel isn’t backing down. Trump warned of more action if Iran doesn’t make peace. The US issued a global travel alert, airlines are avoiding the Gulf, and Japanese banks may pull staff from the region. Oil is in focus, especially with tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Markets: Reactions were calm overall. The US dollar gained, oil prices rose briefly, and stock futures were mixed as investors waited to see what Iran does next. Corporate News: BNY Mellon is reportedly in talks to merge with Northern Trust, which could lead to a major deal in the banking sector. Tesla launched its first robotaxi service in part of Austin, aiming to spark new growth after a sales slump. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6018 Resistance Level 2: 6043 Resistance Level 3: 6070 Support Level 1: 5910 Support Level 2: 5870 Support Level 3: 5845 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500: Bearish Momentum Below 5966, Bullish Recovery Above 6010SPX500 – Technical Overview SPX500 is currently exhibiting bearish momentum, largely driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are contributing to heightened market volatility. At present, the price is approaching the pivot level at 5966. A confirmed 1-hour candle close below this level would likely reinforce the bearish bias, targeting 5938, and potentially extending the decline toward 5902 and 5858. However, if the price stabilizes above 5990, we may see a retest of the 6010 resistance. A breakout above this level would shift the momentum toward the upside, with further targets at 6041 and 6098. Key Levels • Pivot: 5966 • Support: 5938, 5902, 5858 • Resistance: 6010, 6041, 6098
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2
Weekly Red Candles Signal Potential PullbackOn the weekly chart, two clean red candles have formed. The price is struggling to move higher — every attempt to break above is being sold off. An additional factor is geopolitical tension, which puts extra pressure on bullish momentum. After such an exponential rally, I expect at least a pullback . Could there be a new high and breakout above resistance? Yes, it's possible. But the current setup offers a clear stop-loss just 1.60% below the current price — a small and comfortable risk. This is not a quick trade. I plan to hold the position anywhere from 1 week to 1 month, depending on how the market develops. Therefore, I choose an optimal position size for my account, knowing that margin will be frozen.
SP:SPXShort
by kventinka
SPX: geopolitics, Fed, inflationDuring the previous week the S&P 500 was moving in a mixed manner. The trading range was between levels 6.039 and 5.967 where the index is closing the week. Traders and investors had quite a lot of topics to cover in order to decide which side should be traded. The tensions in the Middle East were one of them, continuing for the second week in a row. The FOMC meeting was held, with the Fed holding interest rates steady, for another meeting. Still, the Fed continues to count with two rate cuts till the end of this year. The Fed expects that implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration might affect short term inflationary pressures, but it should be a one-off effect. Some positivity for markets came from the statement of the Fed Governor Waller, who noted that the Fed might make the first rate cut in July. On the opposite side was San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who noted that she would be more confident to cut rates, after she is certain that the trade tariffs would not make a significant impact on inflation. Uncertainty still holds on markets, especially after news posted by the Wall Street Journal, noting that the U.S. might cancel technology waivers, impacting some chipmakers. The tech companies involved in the semiconducting business dropped in value. Friday's trading session Nvidia ended by 1,12% lower, AMZN also closed the week with a drop of 1,33%. This week on the opposite side was Apple, with a gain of 2,25%. As long as uncertainty shapes investors sentiment, the market will lack optimism. The volatility on the US equity markets might continue, with possibly negative trends. The week ahead brings the PCE data as well as Fed Chair Powell`s testimony in front of the Congress, in which sense, the volatility will most certainly hold.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identiifed as ab overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,796.40 1st Support: 5,555.95 1st Resistance: 6,091.55 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1
The Market Sways and Trump sets a deadline ‼️ Hey hey, hope all is well, don't have too much time so just gonna keep this short and get at what we need right now, thanks for tuning in. ‼️ If you've been following the news then you understand that tensions are pretty high, the conflict in the Middle East is progressively getting worse and worse by the day with The United States now looking to play peacemaker between Iran and Israel. ‼️ Trump himself has given a two week deadline for him to decide on whether or not the United States will join the fight and bomb Iran which notably has the market shaken. Below I've added a link with a reference to an article which highlights the recent news and trumps deadline. www.npr.org ‼️ Historically, we've seen trump do this before, he's no stranger to setting deadlines, especially when it comes to global conflicts. As the article also references, trump has done this before, take April 24th for example when a reporter asked Trump on his position with continuing military assistance for Ukraine: "You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see" responded Trump. It's become a tactic that Trump has used often throughout his term's prompting the question of whether or not we will really see him take action by the end of the two weeks or not. So we should take that understanding and take everything with a grain of salt. ‼️ The market itself is already use to the idea of war or joining a fight like we had to deal with when fighting started between Ukraine and Russia which shook the market before things ultimately got back to routine and the market was able to price in the war. I do have to note though that the global conflicts in Ukraine are much more different than those in the Middle East so that should be taken into consideration as well. ‼️ That being said on Saturday Trump made the announcement that the U.S had launched an attack on three of Iran's main nuclear sites signifying the U.S may be ready to join the fray. That or they have taken advantage of the high tensions to launch an attack of their own to beat at Iran's nuclear progress in order to delay, prevent them from acquiring a nuclear capability understandably. ‼️ I have to go but for technical analysis we'll be watching that 200 EMA for our bullish and bearish convergences, as well as news which will give us an idea of what way the market will head. Definitely one of those times to sit and watch how things play out, we've already come relatively close to retesting our all time high breaking above 6,000 so the market's definitely got some energy. We've dealt with this before but should the U.S really get itself involved with the war and bomb Iran then I would expect the global markets to react heavily. We've seen the U.S offer aid to countries such as Ukraine but when speaking about joining war that's a different matter entirely. ‼️ Definitely be mindful of the news the next few weeks as things progress and don't be to rash with your decision and choices, stick to what's worked and let's focus on what's worked. Paying mind to our indicators and strategies alongside much patience. ‼️ Thank you for tuning in with me as always, appreciate the constant support and wishing all the best. Feel free to keep tuned for more and thanks again. Best regards, ~ Rock '
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
Us500:What is going to happen?hello friends👋 This time we are here with the analysis of us500, an important and vital index in the market that is being talked about a lot these days. Well, let's go to the analysis, you will see that with the drop we had, a lower floor was made and the price was quickly supported and pumped by buyers. Now it is clear that an ascending pattern has been formed, which is a very strong support in the specified area and a good buying point that you can enter into a transaction with capital and risk management. Note that if the floor is broken and the stop loss is placed, our bullish pattern becomes invalid and we have to wait for lower floors. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheHunters_Company
1
Big CorrectionThe S&P index. The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low. Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there. After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026. This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SP:SPXShort
by mmj50
Another drop for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD broke the low of the previous week just as I've said in my outlook. After that it went up again. This pair is still in a bigger correction down. So next week it could drop again into the direction of the bullish Weekly FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade short term shorts to the previous Weekly lows. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading