SPCUSD trade ideas
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September.
Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again.
The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Long-Term Trend Still Intact for S&P 500The S&P 500 is falling, but despite the sharp negative moves in recent weeks, the longer-term trend remains positive.
The uptrend that began with the 2020 dip is still intact, and it appears the market has used this trend as an opportunity to buy the dips in the last two weeks.
If you zoom out from the current economic turmoil, the broader positive outlook for the U.S. market remains. U.S. stocks have become slightly more affordable following the recent selloff. If the U.S. manages to avoid a deep recession, this market pullback could create a huge opportunity for those who missed out on the 2023–2024 rally.
However, risks are notably higher now, especially with the introduction of new tariffs that are likely to weigh on growth.
As long as the long-term trend holds, downward moves into the 4600–4800 zone could offer compelling long-term buying opportunities.
The creeping marketWe are still at support as of now, and the VIX looks like it may be a false breakout. It will be particularly interesting to see if we can hold this level into the close.
now or nevermarket is at secondary support and is now down more than 3 percent. If we are going to bounce, this is the level that should hold.
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Pink MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 1D timeframe (5500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💵💸"US500/SPX500" Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
S&P500The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, as reflected in the recent price action. Notably, the H4 (4-hour) timeframe indicates sustained upward strength, signaling a continuation of the current bullish trend.
Post-Easter Drift: Markets Hit the Snooze ButtonMonday will be the first proper day back in the saddle after a long Easter weekend.
The chocolate coma has almost worn off. Markets will be waking up. Kind of.
These post-holiday opens are notoriously sluggish. Volume’s light. Direction takes a while to reveal itself. And everyone’s pretending to care about macro while waiting for real price action to show up.
But we’ve already got our map.
And the Wolfe Wave that paid us last week? Still unfolding.
I’m sitting tight with a fresh cup of caffeine, watching the 5400 level as our bull/bear toggle… and waiting to see if Trump rage-tweets another black swan into existence before the bell rings.
We’re not here to chase headlines.
We follow the system that pays.
--
SPX analysis 22 April 2025
The Wolfe Wave setup we traded last week hasn’t invalidated and still has room to run. The projected target near 5000 remains in play, and we’re well within the structure for a continued grind lower.
The swing income trade is live. And because this is options – not directional heroism – we don’t need the full drop to get paid. But a fast tag of 5000 will certainly do us a favour on timing.
On the GEX front, things remain bearish:
5400 = resistance + gamma flip level
5250 = highest negative gamma magnet this week
No bullish flips yet, and no major hedging pressure being relieved
That leaves our plan unchanged:
Bear bias holds under 5400
Swings remain on
Be ready to reassess if we bounce or overshoot key levels
Business as usual. Let price confirm. Let the system trigger.
Patience to profits.
---
Expert Insights: (Trading Mindset for Today)
The strategy is simple:
Wait for the setup. Place the trade. Walk away.
The temptation today will be to force something just because it’s the first day back.
Don’t. You’re not paid to predict. You’re paid to follow the rules.
A calm trader with a plan outperforms a hyper trader with opinions.
Common Trading Mistake & How to Avoid It
❌ Confusing movement with opportunity
Just because the market opens doesn’t mean it’s ready to trade.
✅ Let the setup come to you
Rule-based trading means you wait for confirmation – not caffeine.
Fun Market Fact – When Gamma Gets Negative…
Did you know that negative gamma magnifies market moves?
Here’s how it works:
Dealers hedge in the same direction as price
That creates more volatility, not less
Which means… wild swings are more likely when GEX is negative
This is why we’re watching 5250 this week – it’s where gamma says “this way, please” (and dealers cry quietly behind the screens).
---
Rumour Has It…
Trump’s latest tweet simply read: “ SP:SPX = Sad. Bears win.” Futures dipped 0.3% before recovering.
5400 is now being described as “psychological resistance” – which means nobody has a clue but it sounds clever.
GEX models reportedly enrolled in therapy after being ignored all weekend.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
S&P500SPX showing strong bullish momentum after confirming a double bottom. Last week’s COT report showed increased institutional longs. Add in a dovish Fed, solid earnings, and low VIX — the setup looks strong. Watching for continuation above key resistance.
SPX: hard way upThe S&P 500 index tried very hard to sustain a bit of market optimism, however, it ended the trading week at almost the same level, where it started it. Monday was a positive day, where the index managed to open higher from Friday's close, reaching 5.450, however, through the rest of the week, it was traded with a negative sentiment. Thursday closed at the level of 5.282. Friday was a non-working day on Western markets, due to the Easter holiday. It will be closed also on Monday, which might be treated as a positive, considering current sentiment.
Regardless of a drop in the value of the index, the stocks were traded in a mixed manner. Market favourite Nvidia gained almost 3%, supported by its business plan for the next period, increasing their projections for exports to China. This was positive, considering the uncertainties related to trade tariffs between the US and China. Elly-Lilly, a drug maker, gained almost 14%, after posting positive results on a trial of its weight-loss drug.
Generally, US companies continue to provide relatively positive results, considering the ongoing uncertainties related to trade tariffs. The another topic which is bringing uncertainty in investors is a pressure from the US Administration on Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Powell, noted during a speech that tariffs implemented by the US Administration could drive up inflation higher, which is certainly something that the market is not at all happy to hear at these sensitive moments. Increased inflation would imply that the Fed will not be in the position to cut interest rates, as planned, during the course of this year. So, regardless of positive results that US companies are still managing to post, still, the inflation fears are the most critical moment for investors, which continues to drive their sentiment for investments.
What If Trump’s Tariffs Are Actually Bullish for SPX ?Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at SPX and break down why the new U.S. tariffs and Trump’s economic policies could either boost or damage the U.S. economy in the coming months. So make sure to stay with me until the very end.
🔍 Let’s start with the chart:
As you can see, SPX is currently holding above a weekly support level, marked by the orange ascending trendline. So far, so good. However, we’re also seeing a massive bearish divergence on the RSI — and in my opinion, this was one of the key reasons behind the recent Black Monday-style selloff.
⚠️ But here’s the deal: If SPX breaks below this orange trendline, the next strong support is around 3375 — aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the monthly blue trendline inside our green support zone.
🤔 Should we be bearish on SPX and the U.S. economy?
That’s the big question… and it’s tricky to answer right now. Let’s break it down.
🔧 1. Tariffs and Trump: What’s really going on?
We’re currently in a pause phase of the ongoing tariff war — with countries negotiating to avoid escalation. But here’s the catch: markets hate uncertainty, and that’s why we saw panic selling recently.
Still, most people miss the bigger picture here.
The U.S. has long been a consumer-driven economy, importing heavily from other nations. Meanwhile, U.S. producers have struggled to compete — both domestically and internationally — due to low tariffs at home and high tariffs abroad.
So what do Trump’s new tariffs do?
✅ They level the playing field for U.S. companies at home
✅ They push other countries to lower their tariffs through negotiation
✅ They reduce dependency on foreign imports and support domestic production
In short, if combined with smart monetary policy, these moves could actually help revive U.S. manufacturing and strengthen the economy in the mid-to-long term.
📉 Final thoughts on SPX:
I personally don’t believe the bearish breakdown is coming — but as a trader, I focus on reality, not preference. Right now, we’re still holding above major support, and unless that breaks, the bullish scenario remains in play.
Let me know what you think about this macro setup in the comments.
And as always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
S&P 500: Defensive Plays Dominate as Growth Sectors Falter- Key Insights: The S&P 500, currently priced at **5275.7**, reflects cautious
investor sentiment, with defensive sectors like **utilities**, **consumer
staples**, and **real estate** outperforming amid market volatility.
Elevated uncertainty is evident from higher VIX levels, driven by
geopolitical tensions, weak forward earnings guidance, and concerns about
growth sectors such as **technology** and **semiconductors**. Institutional
flows into safe-haven assets like **gold** signal limited risk appetite,
suggesting near-term weakness in equity markets.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, a cautious long position is suggested,
given support scenarios and stabilization prospects.
- **Target 1 (T1): $5380** (short-term resistance)
- **Target 2 (T2): $5450** (psychological level)
- **Stop Level 1 (S1): $5180**
- **Stop Level 2 (S2): $5135**
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 displayed mixed performance, with defensive
sectors outperforming while growth sectors like technology lagged due to
pressures from macroeconomic factors. The broader equity landscape remains
volatile, as indicated by the elevated VIX readings and constrained trading
ranges in major indices such as the Russell 2000.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts recommend defensive positioning, favoring sectors
like **utilities** and real estate, as investors grapple with recessionary
risks and inflation concerns. Technology and semiconductor stocks,
particularly **Nvidia** and **AMD**, face headwinds from regulatory
restrictions and trade tensions with China. Federal Reserve statements
suggest potential rate cuts later in the year, but near-term hawkishness
persists, given inflationary pressures.
- News Impact: Key earnings reports from **Tesla**, **Google**, **Intel**, and
**Boeing** could drive sentiment shifts. Tesla's results may influence
market trends heavily, reinforcing key technical levels. Additionally,
renewed U.S.-China trade concerns over semiconductor tariffs add
uncertainty. A weakening U.S. dollar favors safe-haven assets such as
**gold**, while geopolitical risks and economic softness point to limited
upside for risk assets in the near term.
Test ideaJust testing this feature . Now it looks like it’s not letting me upload unless I write a longer description. Well, in that case, I will just be blabbing on and on about random things for example well we ever reach a stage where we solve world hunger. Will there be astronauts that invade the year 2030 and crash the market
SPX: trade should not be a weaponPositive sentiment continued on the US equity markets during the previous week, after stronger than expected US jobs data. The Non-farm payrolls posted on Friday reached 177K in April, which was significantly above the 130K expected by the market. The market estimate was significantly lower from March data, as analysts were expecting to see a spill over effect of the imposed trade tariffs. As the jobs market seems still quite strong, the positive market sentiment was intact during the week. However, the recession fears are still holding among investors. The S&P 500 continued its 9-days winning streak, ending the week at the level of 5.686.
On a positive side was the news that Chinese authorities are considering starting negotiations with the US Administration regarding trade tariffs. This was another positive boost for investors' sentiment. Berkshire Hathaway was holding shareholders annual meeting on Saturday, where the most attention of both media and investors was on the speech of its founder and famous investor, Warren Buffet. In his address to the shareholders, Buffet strongly criticized the trade tariffs, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon’.
For the moment, it could be expected that the positive sentiment might continue also in the future period. However, the FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7th. This could be a day of higher volatility, as Fed Chair Powell will address the public at the press conference after the meeting. The markets will closely watch what he has to say regarding the current state of the US economy and potential rate cuts during the course of this year.
SPX: Short term bearish to touch gap? And fill? Looking like there is apparently “no tariff talks” per China.
We’re still in such an uptrend, but looking for a short-term pull back on negative news. Also we have FOMC this week. Does Powell give what Trump and the people want, a rate cut?
I’m looking for 5678.33 to
- TP1: 5672.46
- TP2: 5635.06
Possible touch or fill gap of below 5603.21?
Let me know what you think. Do your DD, not FA. Let’s see what the week brings.
Week ahead analysis May 4th to 11th**Week Ahead Analysis (May 5 – May 11, 2025)**
### **Baseline: Market Expectations**
- **Tariffs & Fed Policy:** Trump's tariff announcement has heightened concerns about economic slowing, prompting bond markets to price in up to four Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
- **Trade Talks & Sentiment Shift:** Reports suggest China may restart trade negotiations, boosting risk sentiment. However, China insists the U.S. must first remove all unilateral tariffs, adding uncertainty to the discussions.
- **Market Reaction:** Risk assets—equities and high-beta currencies like AUD, NZD, and CAD—are climbing as volatility cools. Meanwhile, safe havens such as JPY, CHF, and gold are facing selling pressure, though overall risk sentiment remains cautious.
### **Potential Surprise Scenarios**
- **Trade Deal Secured:** A deal would likely send equities higher, strengthen risk-sensitive currencies, and drive safe havens lower.
- **No Deal Reached:** In contrast, safe havens could gain while risk assets retreat.
### **Big Picture Outlook**
Regardless of the immediate outcome, the market's medium-term trajectory hinges on the broader effects of trade policy. If tariffs persist, economic uncertainty may sustain the Fed’s dovish stance. A successful trade deal, however, could restore confidence, shifting expectations back toward growth stabili
SP500 - technical analysis I expect it to increase from this moment if the 4h demand zone is valid, if not I expect it to reach the D demand zone and from there to have a reaction
Chart Called It S&P 500 Bottom on April 7 Confirmed the March 27On March 27, 2025, I published an analysis identifying the potential for a major bottom forming in the S&P 500 near 4,790.57:
Original chart and analysis
At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal.
The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure.
On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume.
The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822.
If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment.
The market followed the chart.
The bottom was April 7.
The call was made March 27.
The chart led the move.
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline
Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets.
In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined.
🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit
Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well:
• Monthly return: just above 1%
• S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%)
Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green.
🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery
My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results.
• Monthly crypto return: just over 6%
• By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14%
While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns.
📊 Portfolio Overview
• Cumulative profit: $10,000+
• Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5%
I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi.
🔍 What’s Next?
I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
S&P500 INTRADAY ahead of NFP, resistance at 5670The bulls are firmly in control as the S&P 500 heads for its ninth straight daily gain—the longest winning streak since 2004. Optimism is fuelled by:
Expectations of Fed rate cuts due to soft economic data
Hopes for renewed US-China trade talks, easing geopolitical risk
Strong risk appetite, with Bitcoin nearing $100,000 and equity momentum building
Key Risk Today – US Jobs Report:
April Nonfarm Payrolls expected at +138K, down from March’s strong beat
This is the first major labor data since new US tariffs, and could shift market expectations for Fed policy
Conclusion for S&P 500 Traders:
Momentum is bullish, but today’s NFP report is a key risk event. A weaker-than-expected jobs number could reinforce rate cut bets and extend the rally. A surprise beat may trigger profit-taking.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5670
Resistance Level 2: 5740
Resistance Level 3: 5820
Support Level 1: 5440
Support Level 2: 5385
Support Level 3: 5316
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
ChartChart of the SP 500. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell the market. Only for educational purposes.
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-01-2025S&P 500 is going to have a gap up Open and finally closing gap from early last month.
Also traders could be taking profit after yesterday's big UP move.
Level to watch: 5643 ---5645
Reports to watch:
US : PMI Manufacturing Final 945am
US : ISM Manufacturing Index 1000am
US : Construction Spending 1000am
