Sideways for nowA rally today to test the previous highs is possible, but be aware that in this sideways range, what comes up then goes down and vice versa.
SPCUSD trade ideas
SPX500 H1 | Approaching a multi-swing-low supportSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,206.22 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 5,045.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,490.31 which is a swing-high resistance.
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$SPX - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
A Broader Market Review...As we have all seen within the last month or so, the U.S. equity markets have been getting the worst ass whooping since 2020. And as much as we'd like to forget that absolute disaster, it does bring to thought the idea of buying general market funds (such as AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , or AMEX:DIA ) to gain a nice entry into the next bull market, whenever that may be. However, not everything is all smooth sailing. The unfortunate part of this market downturn is that no amount of technical astrology fortune-telling analysis could have predicted the market's reaction to the tariffs being levied on foreign nations. So we need to put our big-boy pants on and look at the market as if it isn't some automatic wealth generating pattern that points north-east all day long.
Let's start with the tariffs. Firstly, we know there has been a 90 day pause on all conforming countries most notably leaving out China. It's not like that's anything special, just almost all our crap is made there. Unfortunately, we are observing what may be the greatest economic error of our lifetimes.
For those who are lost, foreign governments DO NOT pay for the tariffs in the way we are told. The U.S. Government levies the tariffs on the exporter (Chinese companies in this case), who then pass it on to the buyer of the goods (think Walmart, Target, Apple, etc.), who then pass those charges onto YOU... Enjoy!
So with an attempt at a full blown trade war, which the U.S. cannot win nor even has the industrial strength or infrastructure to compete, we can expect the markets to completely do a Bald Eagle courtship nosedive into new lows as observed a few weeks ago. But what will the Creature from Jekyll Island think of this?
Well miraculously, Fed chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will NOT allow the tariffs to exacerbate inflation into new highs. Get that, the Federal Reserve will not allow economic movements that raise prices on an importing nation ( that's the United States by the way), to raise prices anymore. While he's at it, how about we just get no inflation ever since it's just that simple?
And as if that wasn't enough, Donald Trump called for Jerome Powell to lower rates for some reason, saying that Powell was too late on his economic movement at the Fed. As it turns out, our plan for strengthening the economy is to.... weaken the dollar? Not sure why that's the case but at least we will be able to borrow more money at a cheaper price, as if the United States doesn't already have a debt problem. The Fed lowering rates would of course open the possibility of getting yet another wave of quantitative easing which will most likely be observed further down the road. Another round of QE, along with rate cuts, will of course send the equity markets to new highs on top of a weaker dollar.
Speaking of a weaker dollar, we should lastly talk about the TVC:DXY which measures the comparative strength of the U.S. Dollar to other currencies. As it turns out in this scenario, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker every day, meaning that people are running from U.S. Debt like it's the plague. If we were going to get a weaker dollar, at least could we have a higher market to offset our inevitable losses? I guess not...
Here is the TVC:DXY 1D looking back into late 2024.
Lastly for what to expect out of the market. If the trade situation will all the tariffs and this neo-cold war cool down, we might see some tariff pauses or lowering which will of course fire the market into new highs. However, if the situation doesn't cool, our debt yields rise, the market is going to go south faster than a Canadian in December. On a positive note, macroeconomic events move slowly, so it should be clear when a turnaround is coming...
US500's performance this week will be crucial in determiningUS500 Weekly Analysis
The US500 index is currently exhibiting bearish tendencies, but a crucial level to monitor is $5491. This level has the potential to act as a resistance point, and we're looking for a possible selling opportunity around this area. However, if the market breaks above $5491, it could signal a shift in bias towards bullish territory, potentially leading to a significant upward move.
Key Levels to Watch:
1. Sell Zone: $5491 - This level is critical in determining the next move. We'll be watching for confirmation to sell, such as bearish candlestick patterns or trend indicators.
2. Resistance Area: $5730 - $5790 - A strong resistance zone that could potentially cap upward movements.
Trading Strategy:
1. Wait for Confirmation: We'll wait for the market to reach the $5491 level and look for confirmation to sell. This could include bearish candlestick patterns, trend indicators, or other technical signals.
2. Breakout Scenario: If the market breaks above $5491, we'll reassess the bullish potential and look for opportunities to buy.
3. Risk Management: It's essential to manage risk effectively, setting stop-losses and take-profits according to our trading plan.
Market Outlook:
The US500's performance this week will be crucial in determining the next direction. We'll be monitoring the market closely, analyzing price action, and providing updates on any developments. Stay tuned for our analysis and guidance on potential trading opportunities.
By keeping a close eye on these key levels and waiting for confirmation, we can make more informed trading decisions and navigate the markets effectively.
S&P Outlook for the Coming WeekS&P 500 Update – April 20, 2025
We’re still in a confirmed weekly downtrend (though we have paused our decline), and the daily chart is showing signs of indecision. The sharp bounce on April 9 created a large green candle, and price action since then has been stuck inside that day’s range, forming inside bars and signaling continued indecision.
Key Points:
Trendlines: We remain under multiple downtrend lines (drawn from both the weekly and daily timeframes), as well as all major moving averages.
Resistance: The April 9 high around 5458 has now been rejected twice.
Support: We’re currently holding above the short-term uptrend line off the April 7 pivot near 5265. Buyers have defended this level for several days in a row.
Neutral Zone: Until we break below this rising trendline or reclaim the EMAs and downtrend lines, this remains a choppy, sideways range.
This is a tough environment for swing traders. There’s opportunity on lower timeframes, but without clear direction, larger trades carry more risk. Stay patient, watch for a break in either direction, and keep size light if you choose to participate.
Would be interesting to see the market bottom during summerIt would be interesting to see the market bottom at the cross section of the 200 week moving average with the 2022 highs some time by June/July. Markets aren't cheap now however they are above the 200 week.
My framework:
Markets above 200dma go 100% long with base equity allocation (decrease to 90% if RSI is overheated)
Markets below 200dma but above 200 week go 70% long with defensive bias
Markets below 200 week go 25% long with defensive bias, change to high risk with 70% allocation once cross above 200 week.
Saves me from the large drawdowns and shaves off some percentage point off performance however having buying power when all hell breaks loose can result in decade+ alpha opportunities.
The only sector currently above its 200dma is the equal weight utilities which I like in this environments all other sectors are below the 200dma. In such an environment markets are likely to be biased to the downside.
A Tolled BellThe first bell has rung. A bridge is being paved across the $6000 range.
IF it blows up, it likely won't happen until the bridge is constructed and sentiment improves. Expect a few heartfelt endeavors to shoot above $6,660. Base case is long term crab market.
Low Risk SPX opportunitiesLetting the Market decide if it would care to continue Bullish or hold below trendline and daily zone to create New Low.
How Gann’s Square of 9 Reveals Hidden Time Cycles in the US500In today’s fast-moving markets, most traders are stuck reacting, chasing signals, hunting for breakouts, and trying to make sense of noise. But what if you could predict where the market might turn, not just based on price, but on time itself?
That’s exactly what W.D. Gann mastered. His tools, like the Square of 9, weren’t just about charts, they were about timing the rhythm of the market. Today, I’ll walk you through a real-world example on the US500, using Gann’s time technique on the 5-minute chart. This isn't theory. This is how you can bring Gann’s legacy to life in real-time trading.
Step 1: Don’t Start on the 5-Minute—Zoom Out First
The first thing to understand is that not every swing high or low is meaningful. To apply Gann’s time analysis correctly, you must choose swing points that matter—and that means looking at the higher timeframes.
Before diving into the 5-minute chart, I always analyze the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. If a swing high or low on the 5-minute lines up with a key support or resistance zone from those larger timeframes, that’s your signal. These are levels where institutions and big players act, and that gives your analysis a real edge.
So, once I identified a swing high and low on the 5-minute chart that aligned perfectly with a 1-hour resistance zone and a 4-hour support level, I knew I had something solid.
Step 2: Counting Bars – The Foundation of Time Analysis
From the chosen swing low to the swing high, the market took 9 bars to complete the move. That number isn’t just a count—it becomes our anchor in time.
Using my custom-built Gann Square of 9 spreadsheet, I plugged in this value. The spreadsheet then calculated future bar counts where the 45-degree time angle repeats, based on Gann’s time rotation principle.
The output gave us these key numbers: 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81
These are not arbitrary. They are time-based vibration points derived from Gann’s spiral math—each one representing a future window where the market is likely to shift.
Step 3: Letting Time Lead the Trade
Let’s walk through what happened at each of these time windows:
Bar 16: The market attempted to push higher—a classic manipulation move. Then came a sharp reversal. The 45-degree vibration was in effect. This was a textbook Gann-style turning point.
Bar 25: No sharp reversal, but momentum slowed and price started consolidating. This was a structural pause—just as important as a reversal for those watching intraday shifts.
Bar 36: This one was dramatic. The market had been falling, but as we approached the 36th bar, rejection candles started appearing. Selling pressure dried up, and buyers stepped in. Soon after, a bullish breakout followed. The time vibration had called it again.
Bar 49: After a strong bullish run, the price stalled and reversed almost precisely at this time point. This marked a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Bar 64: The downtrend lost steam. Price began forming a new swing low, and as we passed the 64-bar mark, bullish momentum returned. Another clean reversal.
Bar 81: The final vibration in this sequence. The bullish move slowed, candles shrunk, and volume faded. Then came a breakdown. A bearish turn right on time.
What This Means for You as a Trader
This sequence—from bar 16 to 81—is a masterclass in how time drives the market. It shows that price action is not random. It's governed by hidden cycles that most traders overlook. But when you apply Gann’s methods with precision, the market reveals its rhythm.
All we did was:
Identify a meaningful swing (validated by higher timeframes)
Count the bars between the swing low and high
Let the Square of 9 calculate the future time vibrations
From there, we simply watched and waited. And the market played out almost to the bar.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Predictive Trading
The real power of Gann’s techniques lies not in magic, but in mathematical and astrological precision. When you understand how time and price interact, you stop reacting—you start forecasting.
You stop chasing trades—you start anticipating reversals.
Gann’s Square of 9 isn’t just an old-school tool. With the right application, it becomes a modern forecasting machine. And with the help of tools like my custom spreadsheet, the entire process becomes simple, streamlined, and incredibly effective.
So the next time you’re about to take a trade, ask yourself:
Are you following price? Or are you following time?
Because when time is on your side, the market moves in your direction—not the other way around.
SPX path forwardThe SPX appears to be transitioning out of Wave 4 and initiating Wave 5 of the current Elliott Wave cycle. This breakout from Wave 4 suggests the final leg of the broader impulsive structure is underway, typically characterized by renewed momentum and trader interest.
At this stage, we can expect a pullback or bounce near the previous Wave 3 low, which often acts as a key support level during the early stages of Wave 5 development. Should this level hold, price action is likely to resume downward, completing Wave 5 within the projected target zone.
Downside targets for Wave 5 completion are currently in the 4,700 to 4,600 range, aligning with a typical Fibonacci extension (0.618–1.0 of Wave 1 through Wave 3) and previous structure zones that may offer confluence.
Yeah I know, everybody wants to be a "contrarian" bull..Yeah I know, everybody wants to be a "contrarian" stock market bull.
But I would get really scared once the current rally ends.
It can get really skiddish after that.
US500 BULLISH SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEhi
Fundamental view
The **US500 index** dropped due to several key factors affecting the U.S. stock market:
📉 **Tech Stock Decline** – Technology stocks faced heavy pressure, especially after **Nvidia** plunged **6.9%** due to U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Other stocks like **AMD (-7.3%)** and **Micron Technology (-2.4%)** also fell.
💰 **Federal Reserve Uncertainty** – Remarks from **Fed Chair Jerome Powell** raised concerns in the market. Powell warned that new tariffs could trigger higher inflation and slow economic growth, making investors uncertain about interest rate policies.
🛍️ **Surge in Retail Sales** – Retail sales jumped **1.4%** in March as consumers rushed to buy before new tariffs took effect. This highlights economic uncertainty, pushing investors to sell their stocks.
Overall, a mix of trade tensions, uncertain monetary policy, and a tech stock sell-off caused the **US500 index to drop 120.93 points (-2.24%)** on **April 16, 2025**.
Technical view
Yes, the **bullish symmetrical triangle** pattern is often a strong signal for upward price movement. When the price moves within this pattern, it usually indicates a **tightening volatility** before a **breakout**, which can present a good market entry opportunity.
🔍 **Breakout Confirmation**
1️⃣ Increased trading volume when price breaks above the **upper trendline**.
2️⃣ A closing candle above the **triangle resistance** for a valid signal.
3️⃣ Price targets can be measured using the pattern’s initial height as a projection.
📈 **Potential Price Movement**
If the breakout happens, the price could surge toward the next **resistance level**. However, if the breakout fails and price moves below support, the pattern could turn **bearish**.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
ETH LONG, BEARS are Losing controlETH/SPX showing weakening pattern forming around a top formation, that is bullish for ETH
ETH is about to break a pattern that is here since January 2025.
ETHEREUM BULLS regaining control, descending Triangle Descending Triangle, inversely proportional to ETH price,
ETH LONG TRADE
07 may PECTRA Upgrade is a major milestone
SP500 & Oil Analysis: Elliott Waves a Fun Fact from RussiaI don’t track SP500 closely since I trade on the Russian exchange, where SP500 liquidity is thin 💧. But @Fewhale asked, so here’s my take:
📉 SP500 appears to have completed its consolidation and is now poised for a Wave 5 collapse. Note that despite the sprawling Wave 4, it doesn’t overlap with Wave 1 — aligning perfectly with Elliott Wave rules ✅.
Oil’s Looming Drop
🛢️ Oil is also gearing up for a significant downward move before a prolonged pause — mirroring SP500’s setup.
Fun Fact 🤓
Did you know Russian traders nicknamed the S&P500 "сиплый" (pronounced "sipliy"), which means "hoarse, husky"? That's because if you write "S&P" in Cyrillic letters, it becomes СИП (pronounced "sip")
Key Takeaways
1️⃣ SP500: Wave 5 drop likely after clean Elliott Wave structure.
2️⃣ Oil: Sharp decline ahead, similar to SP500’s trajectory.
⚠️ Reminder: Trade with your own strategy, not somebody else's charts! 📉❄️
💬 Your thoughts?
👉 Drop a comment: Are you betting on the crash or staying sidelined? 🎯
$SPX Monthly MACD Cross – Reset or Breakdown?The monthly MACD for the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) just crossed to the downside 📉 — a signal we’ve only seen a few times in the past decade.
Looking at the chart, this indicator also triggered during:
📉 2018 (Quick pullback)
🦠 2020 (COVID crash)
🐻 2022 (Extended bear market)
Now in 2025, we’re facing another sharp decline — but the question is:
👉 Is this just another quick reset like '18 & '20... or are we about to grind lower like 2022?
The MACD histogram is already in negative territory, and the price action is following the same pattern we saw before extended drawdowns.
What do you think: is this the beginning of something deeper? Or are we prepping for a snapback rally?
Drop your thoughts below 👇
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD consolidated the whole week last week.
So next week we could see the start of the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX500Abu Sarah's Daily Pivot Points Indicator
For S&P 500 Index Futures
Automatically updates and identifies important support and resistance areas
Works on all time frames
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the recent shortened trading session, the Index recorded steady to lower prices, distancing itself from the Mean Resistance level of 5455, as indicated in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This trend establishes a foundation for continuing the downward trajectory, targeting the Mean Support level 5140. Should this downward momentum persist, further declines may extend to the next Mean Support level of 4970 and ultimately reach the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890.
Conversely, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum at the current price level, which may challenge the Mean Resistance of 5455 and extend toward the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn?
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
