SPX retesting 5900 before dumping to 5200 areaIN my view SPX could retest 5900-5910 area before new bearish leg to 5230 area where last bullish wave will start to final tp 6444
SPCUSD trade ideas
post market run down Things I'm seeing post market. I still lean bearish but a gap up tomorrow would negate my idea.
Take ProfitsIf you took the trade, good job.
We are at the 200 SMA, and this is a natural location to take profits.
Expecting some additional chop, the market never moves in a straight line... but the worst of it is over. If we retest the lows, I will buy again. If we retest the highs... or take too long... I will monitor for a new short.
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
S&P500 IndexIf the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on.
# Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data
I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions.
## Key Price Levels and Their Significance
The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500:
- **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance.
- **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance.
- **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance.
- **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty.
- **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level.
- **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements.
## Options Market Data
Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis:
1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating:
- Unusually bearish sentiment
- Hedging activity by institutional investors
- Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0
The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning.
2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates:
- Market makers are net short gamma
- They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges
- This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect
Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement.
## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation
The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components:
### Price Action & Moving Averages
The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend.
### Momentum Indicators
- **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading.
- **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure.
- **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure.
### Volume Analysis
- **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure).
- **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution.
### Chart Patterns
- **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion.
- **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend.
## Volatility Assessment
The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations:
- Reduce position size
- Use wider stop losses
- Expect larger price swings
This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings.
## Trading Recommendation Logic
The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of:
1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes
2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral
3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns
4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum
The strategy recommends:
- Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance)
- Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points)
- Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400
- Reduced position size due to high volatility
The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns.
## Educational Elements
The dashboard incorporates several educational elements:
1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure.
2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions.
3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications.
4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment.
This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets Mar 26 2025AMEX:SPY SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM AMEX:DIA
Went in with 5730/5745 @ 2.40 My bet is that we keep trading Sidewards today with the 35EMA as support.
4.50 and 5.50 orders still open
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50.
So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March.
With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave.
Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX a brear flag complete?SPX is going to finish a bear flag and could break down. The Vix is also showing slight upward strength but not much yet. Based on that I don't think we have much downside now in next 2/3 months. However the overall trend of VIX is trending upwards similar to 2022 making higher bottoms since Dec 24, So we could have a year with big swings like we did in 2022
S&P 500 Correction Channel Keeps Bulls in Control, for NowThe S&P 500 has formed an uptrend channel after breaking out of the "tariff panic" downtrend, which had dragged the index down more than 10%. But is this new short-term uptrend merely a correction, or has the real direction changed? That’s the key question, one that will likely be answered in early April when the new tariffs take effect.
February consumer confidence data didn’t look promising, but much of the negativity had already been priced in during the earlier 10% sell-off. However, this week’s PCE report, combined with next week’s tariffs and jobs report, could become a catalyst for determining the short- to medium-term direction.
The 200-hour SMA has now reached the upper line of the trend channel. Together, they may create a strong resistance level. To the downside, 5700 is a key horizontal support level. By the end of this week, it will converge with the lower boundary of the channel, right as both the GDP and PCE data are released. Including the time factor, this confluence could mark the main short-term support.
As long as the trend channel holds, bulls remain in control.
10am updateMarket is coming down hard, but I believe it is a C of B with a large C wave to 5900+ next. Good luck!
S&P500 BuysI've set a buy limit on this indice based on the ICT concept the sell to buy model mixed with the MMBM
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
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The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
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The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
--
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
📺 Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
How low will it go? The S&P Bear MarketI don't believe the market has bottomed yet. There is more to come.
Trump's tariffs will continue to cause uncertainty and as economic figures confirm a US slowdown, stock markets could fall further.
From a technical perspective, I will be looking to buy between 4700 and 5200. This is based on evident weekly horizontal levels, bullish channel support, and 100 and 200 SMA's.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
Cycles and PatternsThe pattern seems to be a WXY (abc X abc) I expect a low Monday with a good bull trapping bounce, but then a lower low at the end of the week.
SPX - Where Rebound?Possible reversal level is at the lower boundary of the channel in wave 4 of the upper order
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
S&P INTRADAY - Stronger Growth, Labour Market ResilientUS Q4 GDP (Annualized) came in at 2.4%, beating forecasts of 2.3%, signalling resilient economic growth despite higher interest rates. A stronger-than-expected economy supports corporate earnings but may also reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
Initial Jobless Claims (4-week average) declined to 224K from 227K, pointing to continued labor market strength. A tight job market supports consumer spending, which is crucial for corporate revenue but may keep inflationary pressures elevated, influencing Fed policy expectations.
Market Impact:
S&P 500: The better-than-expected GDP and healthy labor market data suggest economic momentum remains intact, supporting corporate earnings and risk appetite. However, persistent strength may delay Fed rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5780
Resistance Level 2: 5844
Resistance Level 3: 5920
Support Level 1: 5660
Support Level 2: 5604
Support Level 3: 5540
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SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,704.90 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,590.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,848.75 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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