SP 500 Cash Index / US Dollar forum
Here’s a look at the probabilities for the week ahead based on historical data:
📉 Monday, May 5 – 42.9% chance of climbing → Not a strong start.
📉 Tuesday, May 6 – 42.9% chance of climbing → Same as Monday, still weak.
📈 Wednesday, May 7 – 61.9% chance of climbing → This looks bullish. Could see a dip early in the week followed by a bounce.
⚖️ Thursday, May 8 – 52.4% chance of climbing → More of a coin toss.
📉 Friday, May 9 – 47.6% chance of climbing → Slightly below average odds.
We’re entering the time of year where trading volume starts to fade. In recent years, Memorial Day weekend has marked the unofficial start of summer, and shortly after, Wall Street tends to slow down — unless a major catalyst shakes things up.
This quiet stretch is often called “the doldrums” — marked by weak volume and dull price action. For traders trying to sell, it can mean thin liquidity and difficulty getting good exits.
That’s also why many summer rallies are short-lived and often followed by pullbacks or corrections.
Stay sharp ⚠️ and manage risk carefully as we move into the summer slowdown.
Will risk assets like Bitcoin
I just sat down at the poker table! ♥️ ♣️ ♦️
Wish me luck! 🍀
Price might push up to the 200 MA around 580 this week leading up to the FED interest rate decision. Then over the course of this next month or so, dump back down to the April 480 low to take liquidity.
Finally, then price could surge upwards the rest of this year. Ultimate goal would be 700 by Q4 in autumn.

Markets face a key test at the 200 day SMA this week
SPX
SPY
VOO
IVV tradingview.com/x/POdtU52t

China said it is evaluating U.S. overtures to initiate trade negotiations, potentially paving the way for the world’s two largest economies to start talks to resolve a trade war that has rumbled financial markets and cast a pall on global economic activity.
Senior U.S. officials have reached out recently “through relevant parties multiple times,” hoping to start negotiations with China on tariffs, a spokesperson for the commerce ministry said in a statement Friday.
While assessing the possibility of starting any negotiations, Chinese authorities reiterated Beijing’s request for the U.S. to remove all unilateral tariffs. Failure to do so would indicate “an outright lack of sincerity” from Washington and “further compromise mutual trust,” according to a CNBC translation.
“If the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs,” according to the statement.